Fantasy Football Week 2 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Every Game Previewed | Hoopes There It Is

Sep 17, 2026

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Welcome back to Hoopes There It Is! Just like last year, we’re previewing every game in the upcoming week, highlighting advanced stats like EPA, success rate, pass rate over expected (PROE), and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) to make the best decisions for your fantasy teams. To that end, we’re doing things a little differently this year. Don’t worry, the 40-or-so graphs and tables are staying. But at the top I’ll provide a quick start/sit section that stems from the longer write-ups. And if you’re interested in more, which I hope you are, you can use the Quick Links section to jump to any of the 16 games in the week. Let’s get started!

Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Jameson Williams (Start): I know 6.5 half-PPR fantasy points were not what you were hoping for last week. But the nine targets and 13.2 expected fantasy points are encouraging, good for 9th on the week at WR. Drops only matter to the extent that they change coaching decisions, and Dan Campbell has already come out and said he’s not worried about it. You want to target this 53.5-point game total, one of only two 50+ point games this week.

Makai Lemon (Sit): The Eagles are back to their old tricks, juicing efficiency through big plays but poor series conversion rates. Volume is also still an issue with the Eagles 24th in PROE and 26th in plays in Week 1. Add all of that to Makai Lemon’s negative average depth of target, and he’s someone you absolutely cannot start until we see more. The route volume was at least a bit encouraging for Lemon, as he ran 29 of the team’s 34 routes, but he didn’t play a snap outside of 11 personnel.

Matthew Golden (Start): Both Christian Watson and Matthew Golden were top-10 in expected WR fantasy points last week. And luckily the Packers don’t have to play the Vikings’ defense every week. Golden’s 2.38 yards per route run was elite, with a big caveat that’s on a very small 2026 sample. But the Jets’ offense was downright functional last week, while the Packers’ run game was not. We could see some volume again here.

All Browns and Titans Players (Sit): Both teams are sitting around 16 implied points on the week. Shoot for higher upside than any player on these teams.

Colston Loveland (Start): Trust me, I don’t love that I need to write this in Week 2. I watched all two of Loveland’s targets last week (look at me grinding the film!). And those were probably the two worst throws Caleb Williams had all game. Assuming monstar Kalif Raymond hasn’t stolen Ja'Marr Chase’s powers, the fantasy points will come for Loveland.

Falcons Not Named Bijan Robinson (Sit): The Falcons finished the day passing at a rate 17.1% below expectation and hitting 1st percentile efficiency going back to 2021. Cooper Rush took a sack on two-thirds of his Week 1 pressures, according to Next Gen Stats. If Rush is at QB, look elsewhere.

Quick Links

Seahawks at Cardinals

Commanders at Cowboys

Colts at Chiefs

Giants at Rams

Additional Graphs

Lions at Bills (O/U 53.5 points, BUF -4.5 points)

Lions (24.5 Implied Points)

This is one of only two games this week with a projected game total above 50 points, though some others get close.
The Lions were almost exactly average from both a pass rate and efficiency perspective last week.
And I’ll say this a lot throughout the article, but we need to take a one-game sample with a massive grain of salt.
The Lions will not have 73 offensive plays every week, mostly because they won’t hit overtime every game.
But the Lions were extremely condensed, which is great for fantasy managers.
Only four players had more than one target last week, and Jahmyr Gibbs had 29 of the team’s 31 RB carries.
Gibbs is lapping the field in expected fantasy points at RB, providing essentially an additional flex player’s worth of fantasy points on top of the 2nd-best RB in the league.
You’re starting all of your Lions, and to me, that includes Jameson Williams.
I know 6.5 half-PPR fantasy points were not what you were hoping for last week.
But the nine targets and 13.2 expected fantasy points are encouraging, good for 9th on the week at WR.
Drops only matter to the extent that they change coaching decisions, and Dan Campbell has already come out and said he’s not worried about it.

Bills (29.0 Implied Points)

The Bills opted to attack the best defense in the league head-on with a +3.7% pass rate over expected (PROE) and the highest air yards per attempt mark in the league, according to Next Gen Stats.
And the passing game worked to perfection, hitting 96th-percentile efficiency (relative to all games from 2021-2025).
The targets were spread almost evenly across DJ Moore, Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, and James Cook.
The most encouraging usage was for Kincaid, who played 42 of the team’s 57 snaps, only one shy of the team lead, and ran 22 of the team’s 32 routes, four shy of Moore’s 26.
As an example of Kincaid’s increased role, he basically didn’t play any 12 personnel snaps last year, with Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes almost exclusively taking those.
But he played over half of the 12 personnel snaps in Week 1, according to PFF.
If the Bills remain comfortable with Kincaid’s health and his blocking limitations, then he could have a big year.
The Bills only had 15 RB carries, but James Cook took 13 of them along with 18 of the team’s 26 RB routes.
We should see both increased rushing volume and efficiency moving forward when the Bills aren’t playing the Texans.

Eagles at Titans (O/U 39.5, PHI -7.0)

Eagles (23.25 Implied Points)

From one of the only games above 50 expected points to the only game with fewer than 40 expected points.
The Eagles struggled to move the chains and run block, both of which are continuations from last year.
They had the lowest success rate on 1st down in the league last week and the 2nd-lowest success rate on all downs.
But they got away with it thanks to explosive pass plays, juicing their passing EPA up to the 60th percentile.
But that success rate is a real concern for all Eagles fantasy players moving forward.
And volume is still an issue with the Eagles 24th in PROE and 26th in plays in Week 1.
Add all of that to Makai Lemon’s negative average depth of target, and he’s someone you absolutely cannot start until we see more.
The route volume was at least a bit encouraging for Lemon, as he ran 29 of the team’s 34 routes, but he didn’t play a snap outside of 11 personnel.
And I have concerns about Saquon Barkley as well.
Barkley took 15 of the team’s 18 RB carries, which is great, but he only ran 12 routes.
That route share was the lowest he’s ever seen in a game he didn’t exit early.
The rushing volume should be there for Barkley as a seven-point favorite, but I’ll be more focused on his passing-game involvement.

Titans (16.25 Implied Points)

One of the more surprising stats from a wild Week 1 was that the Titans were 2nd in the league in PROE.
It didn’t result in much, as they hit the 23rd percentile in passing efficiency on 27 team targets.
Carnell Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson paced the team with six targets each.
That’s still not enough volume for Robinson to make a fantasy impact given he’s back to being pigeonholed as a screen merchant.
But I think Tate is a flex in leagues with 12 or more managers in games where he’s not going to face Quinyon Mitchell.
Unfortunately, this is not one of those games, but Tate was 38th among WRs in expected fantasy points last week, and we could see more actual fantasy points in weeks after Week 2.
The Titans only had 10 RB carries, with Tony Pollard taking seven of them and the remainder going to Tyjae Spears.
Unfortunately for Pollard, Spears ran 9 more routes, and the two ultimately split the snaps.
I’d shoot for a higher ceiling than either player in Week 2.

Saints at Ravens (O/U 46.5, BAL -8.5)

Saints (19.0 Implied Points)

One thing we can count on with Kellen Moore is play volume through pace.
But Week 1 was just ridiculous as the Saints narrowly missed a comeback attempt versus the Lions in overtime, hitting the 4th-most offensive plays in a game for any team since the start of last season.
In total, the Saints had 49 team targets, more than double the 24 targets their opponent, the Ravens, had last week.
That context is absolutely necessary to put these target numbers in perspective going forward.
Chris Olave paced the team with 13 targets despite constantly checking out with injuries; Devaughn Vele had nine, Travis Etienne eight, Noah Fant seven somehow on 19 routes, and six for Juwan Johnson.
Vele is going to be a very popular waiver wire add this week, and rightfully so, ranking 14th in expected fantasy points among WRs, but we could realistically see 20 fewer team targets this week.
But I’d still be willing to start him along with Olave, Etienne, and Johnson, leaving Fant on waivers for now given his route limitation and that he’s not going to be Puka Nacua in terms of target-earning ability every week.
Etienne ranked 13th among RBs in expected points last week thanks to his targets, dominating the routes 29 to six over Kendre Miller.
But frustratingly, Miller nearly had the same number of carries, and that split is something I’ll be very interested in seeing versus the Ravens.

Ravens (27.5 Implied Points)

The Ravens’ offense was awesome last week, hitting about 80th percentile efficiency both passing and rushing.
The biggest issue for the pass catchers was that there were only 24 team targets, with Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews earning six each and no one else taking more than three.
But that hides the fact that Flowers only ran 11 routes due to a hamstring injury.
Yes, that means Flowers earned a target on over half of his routes, and he was on pace for a massive day without the injury.
If the Flowers injury gets more clarity throughout the week, and you can use that to acquire him in your league, I would absolutely take advantage of that now.
Derrick Henry’s role was the same as ever, dominating the RB carries but only running nine routes; the routes don’t matter if you score three touchdowns.

Packers at Jets (O/U 44.5, GB -4.5)

Packers (24.5 Implied Points)

Week 1 was a game to forget for the Packers, struggling to 34th-percentile passing efficiency and a brutal 6th percentile rushing performance.
Thankfully, the Packers don’t play the Vikings’ defense every week.
But the play volume was there, with Matthew Golden earning 11 targets, eight for Christian Watson, seven for Jayden Reed, and six for Tucker Kraft.
Both Golden and Watson finished top-10 among WRs in expected fantasy points.
Every fantasy manager will be starting Watson in Week 2 after his two-TD performance, but I think Reed and, more surprisingly, Golden are starts as well.
In addition to that target volume, Golden’s 2.38 yards per route run was elite in obviously a very small 2026 sample.
If you drafted Kraft, you’re probably going to start him after he earned six targets last week, but one callout is that it was on only 20 routes compared to 17 for Jonnu Smith.
The fact that he hit TE8 in expected points on only 20 routes is impressive, and we should see those routes increase as the season progresses.
It was a clear, if unsuccessful, RB split between MarShawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks, with Lloyd taking the early-down and short-yardage work, while Brooks took the third-down and two-minute drill situations.
Lloyd finished as RB26 in expected fantasy points last week, with his volume and situational usage predicting 9.1 points versus his actual 3.7 points.
That’s right around Rico Dowdle and Aaron Jones as a sense of whether you can flex Lloyd in Week 2.

Jets (20.0 Implied Points)

The Jets were top-10 in both passing and rushing efficiency last week.
Let me say that again, the Jets had a normal, functional offense in Week 1.
Geno Smith was only pressured on 23.1% of his dropbacks last week, which would’ve been his 2nd-best week of the 2025 season.
And that’s great news for both Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall.
Wilson earned seven of the team’s 23 targets last week, with no other player earning more than three.
Hall took 22 of the team’s 32 RB carries but did split the routes with Braelon Allen.
That was still enough for Hall to rank 11th in expected fantasy points among RBs, with his actual points exceeding those expected points a bit thanks to the rushing score.
Wilson and Hall are the only fantasy starters in my opinion, despite the rushing TD from Kenyon Sadiq last week.
Sadiq only ran 12 routes, and that’s not even close to enough for sustainable fantasy scoring.

Browns at Buccaneers (O/U 40.5, TB -8.5)

Browns (16.0 Implied Points)

The Browns were 30th in pass rate, 30th in play volume, and 26th in overall efficiency last week.
That is to say, there is still room for this to get worse.
There were only 21 team targets last week; as a reminder, the Saints had 49.
Denzel Boston, KC Concepcion, and Jerry Jeudy tied for the team lead at four targets, while Harold Fannin earned three.
The TD was very encouraging for Boston, while the three carries were also bullish for Concepcion, as it’s clear they want the ball in his hands.
Both were low-end WR3s in expected points, but it might be tough for those to consistently turn into actual fantasy points given the QB play.
Quinshon Judkins dominated the RB carries, but there were only 13 for the team, and he split the routes with Raheim Sanders even after Dylan Sampson left.
At just 16 implied points, I’m putting a microscope on all my Browns’ players versus my other options.

Buccaneers (24.5 Implied Points)

Turnovers are the clear story from the Buccaneers’ Week 1 loss to the Bengals, but those are not sticky week-to-week.
What was more interesting was Baker Mayfield’s incredibly low average depth of target.
Only about 4% of his attempts went 20+ yards down the field last week, which was the lowest in the league.
Luckily, the Browns’ defense is on tap, and they were truly awful defending deep pass attempts against the Jaguars.
To be fair, the Browns’ defense was awful across the board, not just against deep attempts.
Bucky Irving paced the team with seven targets, again highlighting Mayfield’s low target depth, followed by six for Emeka Egbuka, five for Cade Otton, and four for Chris Godwin.
If Irving nearly doubles Kenny Gainwell’s routes in a given week, then I don’t see the point of holding onto Gainwell in redraft leagues.
Otton’s targets were surprising, and I wouldn’t expect those to continue, but the other three players are clear starts again this Browns’ defense that was just shredded last week.

Vikings at Bears (O/U 48.5, CHI -5.5)

Vikings (21.5 Implied Points)

The Vikings were very run-heavy last week at -8.0% PROE, but that will happen when you lose your starting QB at the beginning of the game.
Despite that, Carson Wentz came in and delivered a 72nd-percentile passing EPA performance.
Now, that was on low volume, as mentioned, with only 21 team targets, and it was juiced by success on 3rd downs, as the underlying early-down success, explosive, and sack rates were significantly worse and a real concern moving forward.
Justin Jefferson is the only Viking that I’m starting confidently, as he earned about 43% of the team’s total targets last week.
The Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason split at RB is tough for fantasy managers as they had an identical number of snaps and routes, and nearly identical targets and carries.
This usage keeps both as RB3s in expected fantasy points, so they’re option-dependent flex plays based on volume.
Update: Jordan Mason just landed on IR, so Aaron Jones is a clear start as well.

Bears (27.0 Implied Points)

The Bears are trying to make good on their promise to set a points record, hitting 95th percentile passing and 87th percentile rushing efficiency in Week 1.
And the underlying data on the passing game is really strong for the first time in the Caleb Williams era, ranking 2nd in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) compared to 30th near the end of last season.
One concern for the pass catchers (that is great news for Williams-managers), is that the team had 38 routes but only 26 targets.
And that’s because Williams had seven scrambles in Week 1, taking pass attempts out of the offense.
Just like everyone expected, Kalif Raymond led the team with nine targets on 22 routes.
Ok, I don’t think Raymond will earn 41% targets per route run (TPRR) going forward, but he does appear to have a real role in the offense.
I’d prefer to hold off on Raymond completely until at least one more week of data.
And that’s because my prior on Colston Loveland is that he’s going to go completely crazy in this offense in 2026.
That prediction…is off to a rough start after the Week 1 stinky goose, but I’m buying wherever I can after his 87% route share.
I’m guessing most of you will think “not in my league”, but take a peek at the manager of Loveland in your league and ask yourself if he or she is the dumbest person in your league.
And if they are, offer them a trade and see what happens.
The Bears absolutely destroyed the Panthers on the ground, which is a continuation of prior-year trends.
D’Andre Swift took 18 carries to Kyle Monangai’s 10, but Monangai ran five more routes and hit an explosive TD run.
Monangai scored 11.5 more fantasy points than expected last week, so he’s a sell if you can find the right buyer.
Swift is a clear start given the volume, even despite the tough matchup against a Vikings’ run defense that just smothered the Packers.

Steelers at Patriots (O/U 41.5, NE -5.5)

Steelers (18.0 Implied Points)

Another big pass rate surprise here, as the Steelers led the league in PROE and were 9th in air yards per attempt.
The problem is that didn’t work, as Aaron Rodgers was 0/7 on passes that traveled 20+ yards in the air, according to Next Gen Stats.
DK Metcalf easily paced the team with nine targets and is 4th among WRs in expected fantasy points, but he ultimately only managed a 4/40/0 line in Week 1.
The question you have to ask yourself is: can a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers improve on those deep pass attempts against Christian Gonzalez this week?
The RB split is tricky to parse, as there weren’t clear role splits between Rico Dowdle and Jaylen Warren.
The Steelers started by alternating possessions and then sort of mixed both before starting to alternate possessions again.
Ultimately, Dowdle led 39 to 25 in snaps and 25 to 12 in routes, but Warren earned two more targets and carries.
Both are low-end RB2s based on usage, with Warren my preference given the volume and my view of the player’s talent, despite Dowdle’s clear leads in snaps and routes last week.

Patriots (23.5 Implied Points)

The Patriots’ offense was basically Drake Maye scrambles in Week 1, as they hit zero explosive passes and were dead-last in rushing EPA per play in the league.
AJ Brown only ran 16 of the team’s 42 routes because of an ankle injury that landed him on IR, partially explaining the lack of explosives.
DeMario Douglas led the team with 33 routes and 7 targets, while Mack Hollins’ route share spiked from 21% with Brown healthy to 71% with Brown out.
I’m not especially excited to start any Patriots’ pass catchers despite the 23.5 implied points because Douglas’ low aDoT limits his ceiling.
Five Rhamondre Stevenson runs lost more than an expected point in Week 1.
Fortunately, the Patriots don’t play the Seahawks every week, who had the best run defense in the league last year in every key stat and are pacing that way again in 2026.
But Stevenson was RB12 in expected fantasy points last week as he had a workhorse role with TreVeyon Henderson sidelined.
He’s a start this week if Henderson remains out or is limited.

Panthers at Falcons (O/U 43.5, CAR -2.5)

Panthers (23.0 Implied Points)

Now the Bears defense might be one we’re targeting throughout the season, but Bryce Young still cooked them for 73rd percentile passing efficiency.
And what’s great for fantasy managers is that this offense is concentrated on only three players: Jalen Coker, Tetairoa McMillan, and Chuba Hubbard.
Cokeheads rejoice with a WR11 expected and WR1 actual fantasy performance from Coker in Week 1.
Coker ran the same number of routes as McMillan and earned one additional target; both are clear starts going forward as no other Panther earned more than three targets.
And Hubbard dominated the RB work over Jonathon Brooks 48 to 13 in snaps, 26 to six in routes, and 10 to four in carries.
The issue for Hubbard is that he only led Brooks in yards, 87 to 62, due to a 48-yard reception by Brooks.
The current usage for Hubbard is very bullish, but my expectation is still that Brooks takes more work as the season progresses.

Falcons (20.5 Implied Points)

The 20.5 implied points must assume that Michael Penix is under center, because the Cooper Rush offense was completely non-functional.
The Falcons finished the day passing at a rate 17.1% below expectation and hitting 1st percentile efficiency going back to 2021.
Of the 17 team targets, Bijan Robinson earned seven of them as their average air yards per pass was only 3.5 yards.
Rush took a sack on two-thirds of his Week 1 pressures, according to Next Gen Stats.
Now, the Bears just scored six rushing touchdowns against this Panthers’ defense, so you’re starting Robinson in every game with any QB.
But you can only start Drake London and Kyle Pitts if Rush is banished to the sideline.

Bengals at Texans (O/U 46.5, HOU -2.5)

Bengals (22.0 Implied Points)

The Bengals ultimately won Week 1, but it was thanks to their defense and run game rather than the passing attack.
Mike Gesicki actually led the team with seven targets on only 17 routes, highlighting the Bengals’ 24th-ranked air yards per attempt.
I’d be hesitant to put Gesicki into your starting lineup this week given his route limitations, the fact that he’s not Jaxon Smith-Njigba from a route-earning perspective, and how good we should expect this Texans’ defense to be.
But you’re starting Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins every week despite the slow starts, as Chase did this exact same thing last year before exploding.
And Chase Brown finished as RB8 in expected fantasy points last week, slightly underperforming that expectation.
According to PFF, Brown played all of the two-minute snaps, which he only did once last season when Samaje Perine was inactive.

Texans (24.5 Implied Points)

The Texans’ play volume was juiced last week because the Bills went pass-heavy with intermediate and deep attempts and were very successful in their approach.
A reasonable expectation is that this Texans’ defense will play much better moving forward, limiting offensive play volume when combined with their 23rd- ranked PROE.
I’d expect their total team targets to drop from the 36 we saw last week, with Nico Collins earning 10 of those, Dalton Schultz seven, Xavier Hutchinson six, and then no one else seeing more than three.
Personal favorite Jaylin Noel only saw 15 of the team’s 42 routes and can safely be left on waivers for now.
Only Collins and Schultz ran more than 30 routes, but Schultz was consistently off the field in heavier-TE sets, something that could limit his ceiling.
And I don’t think there’s much to do other than start David Montgomery again off his three-TD performance going against a Bengals run defense that gave up the 4th-worst rushing EPA per play in Week 1.

Raiders at Chargers (O/U 43.5, LAC -7.0)

Raiders (18.25 Implied Points)

The Raiders’ offense was completely average in Week 1, which was a monumental improvement from 2025.
The answer to which WR you wanted here is probably none of them, as Michael Mayer and Ashton Jeanty paced the team with seven and six targets, respectively.
Brock Bowers is a must-start if he plays, but if he sits, Mayer was TE10 in expected fantasy points last week, so he is a low-end starting option.
Ashton Jeanty dominated the snaps at RB, leading Mike Washington in snaps 59 to 13, routes 20 to six, targets six to zero, and carries 23 to seven.
Jeanty was RB4 in expected fantasy points and RB6 in actual fantasy points and is a must-start going forward.
But one callout is the Raiders had two snaps from inside their opponent’s 10-yard line last week, and Washington was on the field for both, according to PFF.

Chargers (25.25 Implied Points)

It’s difficult to describe the Chargers’ Week 1 loss to the Cardinals as anything other than embarrassing.
Going against a team that had non-zero odds to finish the entire season winless, the Chargers hit 31st percentile passing and 10th percentile rushing efficiency.
And they were 26th in the league in plays, as the Cardinals dominated the time of possession 38 to 22 minutes.
Ladd McConkey dominated the targets before his injury, earning seven on only 18 routes.
Importantly, about half of McConkey’s routes were run with two or fewer WRs on the field, compared to about 10% of his routes last year.
But once McConkey left, the Chargers couldn’t do anything.
McConkey is the only pass catcher I’m confidently starting, even with over 25 implied points.
The TE rotation is a mess with David Njoku and Charlie Kolar each seeing 30 snaps, while Oronde Gadsden saw 10.
The good news is that Gadsden earned a target on 40% of his routes; the bad news is he only ran five routes.
Gadsden is a sell low if you can.
Omarion Hampton easily paced Keaton Mitchell in carries, 12 to four, but neither earned a target after splitting the routes.
And to make matters worse, Kimani Vidal entered the game for the Chargers’ one goal-line opportunity, according to PFF.
Better days are ahead for this Chargers’ offense, but they’ll have to be if Hampton is losing routes and goal-line snaps.

Jaguars at Broncos (O/U 44.5, DEN -2.5)

Jaguars (21.0 Implied Points)

The Jaguars crushed the Browns last week, finishing top-two in the league in passing efficiency, passing success rate, explosive pass rate, CPOE, and rushing success rate.
They only needed 21 targets to do this, with Parker Washington earning six and maintaining his status as a must-start even in a tough matchup.
Speaking of that matchup, it’s between the offense with the highest CPOE in the league in Week 1 against the defense that limited Patrick Mahomes to the lowest CPOE in the week.
The snaps between Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez were close, with Tuten taking 28 to Rodriguez’s 23.
But the work was heavily in Tuten’s favor as he earned the only RB target and took 15 carries to Rodriguez’s six.
Tuten is the clear start among the two RBs given that workload split against a defense that just got destroyed by Kenneth Walker on Monday night.
But Rodriguez taking the only goal-line snap is concerning for Tuten’s ceiling, along with the even snap split.

Broncos (23.5 Implied Points)

The betting markets are assuming that Week 1 was a weird blip for this Broncos offense.
Fantasy managers are similarly hoping it was a weird blip for Jaylen Waddle.
The Broncos only put up a 4th-percentile passing performance, good for 2nd-worst on the week.
They were bottom-five in efficiency, explosiveness, CPOE, air yards, and sack rate.
Pat Bryant led the team with six targets, while Courtland Sutton, Evan Engram, RJ Harvey, and Jaylen Waddle were in the three-to-four range.
Bryant ran about six fewer routes compared to Sutton and Waddle, though there was a clear intent to get him the ball on WR screens.
Bryant is an add, but I’d prefer not to start him until we see this trend continue for another week.
I’m willing to put Waddle right back into my starting lineup, but there’s obviously the risk this goes south again.
RJ Harvey and JK Dobbins split the snaps, but Harvey doubled Dobbins’ routes, ultimately earning four targets to Dobbins’ zero.
But Dobbins led Harvey in carries, eight to three.
I’d be willing to start Dobbins again with the assumption that the Broncos remain competitive in this one, but this is dependent on my other options and the very real concern that Dobbins is a zero in the passing game.

Dolphins at 49ers (O/U 45.5, SF -13.5)

Dolphins (16.0 Implied Points)

The Dolphins only passed at a rate 2.7% below expectation; that’s a lot higher than I expected going into the season.
And they finished the day 28th in plays; again, much higher than I expected, which was 32nd by a wide margin.
They were almost as bad as the Eagles on 1st down, but they stayed out of the doldrums of the league in passing EPA by firing the ball down the field and hitting some explosives.
Malik Washington and Caleb Douglas both earned 6+ targets and were top-24 in expected fantasy points at the WR position.
Both are adds given the volume, but I’d prefer to shoot for a team with a higher ceiling than 16 implied points.
De'Von Achane remains a must-start, though he was only RB21 in expected points and failed to hit that relatively low expectation.
But he dominated the RB carries, ran 30 of the team’s 37 routes, and the Dolphins only schemed up one designed run for Malik Willis (though he had five scrambles as well).

49ers (29.5 Implied Points)

With nearly 30 implied points, I’d break ties toward starting a 49er.
And the offense was awesome last week, hitting 72nd percentile passing and 87th percentile rushing efficiency.
They were even better when looking at success rate.
Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel tied for the team lead with seven targets.
But if you started Samuel last week, you got pretty lucky that De'Zhaun Stribling left with an injury; Samuel only played 27 of the team’s 65 snaps and wasn’t on the field in 2-WR sets until after Stribling left.
Regardless, I’m firing up both Evans and Samuel this week and trying to trade away Samuel before Stribling returns.
I’d love to tell you to start George Kittle, but he only ran 17 of the team’s 36 routes last week.
He earned five targets on those limited routes, which is great, but I’d listen to reports about his playing time because he might miss a big swath of this game if the 49ers put away the Dolphins early.
And the Christian McCaffrey, Kaelon Black split has already launched 1,000 hot takes, but I’ll throw my thoughts on that fire.
We knew that McCaffrey was limited prior to the season due to ‘tightness,’ and he apparently dealt with cramps during the game.
So, Black led McCaffrey 14 to 10 in carries, but McCaffrey still earned eight targets on 22 routes compared to one target for Black on 13 routes.
McCaffrey was ultimately RB14 in expected points last week, which is obviously lower than you drafted him and a far cry from his RB1 status last year when he was lapping the field.
But there is a good chance the 49ers were easing him into action along with managing his workload due to cramping, and we should see him take back more carries along with his still-dominant receiving usage.
At the same time, Black is a great add and potential start this week because there could be a lot of garbage time in this one, and we’re now very confident that Black is the handcuff RB here if something ever happened to McCaffrey.

Seahawks at Cardinals (O/U 41.5, SEA -4.5)

Seahawks (23.0 Implied Points)

We saw a lot of trends from last year for the Seahawks in Week 1.
They were run-heavy, leading to a low number of plays, despite not being very efficient at running the ball.
But their passing game was efficient again despite losing Sam Darnold to a hip injury.
Having said that, 6.1 of Drew Lock’s total 7.6 expected points was on that one 45-yard Jaxon Smith-Njigba touchdown catch where 41 of those yards came after the catch.
To Lock’s credit, he did avoid turning the ball over and took only one sack.
JSN is the only member of this passing game that I’m starting, as he earned an otherworldly 11 of the team’s 24 total targets.
Despite the poor rushing EPA and success rate for the team, I thought Jadarian Price looked great.
Price split the snaps with George Holani and narrowly led Holani in routes, targets, and carries.
In addition, Emmanuel Wilson would’ve taken the only snap the Seahawks had within their opponent’s five-yard line if they didn’t get a delay of game penalty that moved them back.
Price was RB33 in expected points last week, and game script should be on his side here to get additional volume.

Cardinals (18.5 Implied Points)

The Cardinals’ offense was flat-out good last week, hitting 76th percentile passing and 57th percentile rushing efficiency.
They weren’t as pass-heavy as last year, but they dominated the time of possession, leading to the 5th-most plays in Week 1.
That let Trey McBride crush, earning 12 of the team’s 36 targets and giving his fantasy managers a six-point lead in expected points at the position compared to TE2 (hilariously, that is Mike Gesicki).
The offense was extremely concentrated as only Michael Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Kendrick Bourne ran more than one route at WR.
Bourne surprisingly led that group with eight targets, compared to Wilson’s seven and Harrison’s three (womp).
I think Bourne is going to have a real role this year, and so is an add, but not a start until we see more, and especially not against this strong Seattle defense.
I’d also prefer to bench both Jeremiyah Love and Tyler Allgeier in this one if I have other options.
Seattle was first in rushing EPA, success rate, and explosive runs allowed last year, and they’re top-three in each to start this season.
And neither back was efficient in Week 1, as the Cardinals’ rushing efficiency was driven exclusively through Jacoby Brissett sneak conversions, not RB carries.
Allgeier led Love in snaps 44 to 32, routes 18 to 15, and carries 17 to 11 last week.
Given the number of plays, though, both ranked as RB2s in expected fantasy points, but the matchup is brutal this week.

Commanders at Cowboys (O/U 50.5, DAL -4.5)

Commanders (23.0 Implied Points)

The Commanders’ offense was ultimately above-average in Week 1 despite a very poor passing success rate.
Nine of their 29 team targets went to Stefon Diggs as the Eagles committed to taking Terry McLaurin away from the offense.
Both McLaurin and Diggs are starts this week against a Cowboys defense that was just lit up by the Giants.
Antonio Williams actually tied McLaurin with four targets, but he did this on only 11 routes and can’t be trusted near starting lineups.
Chig Okonkwo is a sneaky winner from the week as he ultimately only ran 22 of the team’s 38 routes, but that was because he got hurt in the 3rd quarter.
Okonkwo was virtually an every-down player before his injury, and assuming it isn’t serious, he could see a production spike when the Commanders’ offense has a better outing.
It’s less clean at the RB position as Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Rachaad White mostly split the snaps, routes, and targets.
JCM typically took the early-down snaps while White typically took the 3rd-down snaps, but both White and rookie Kaytron Allen were involved at the goal line.
But JCM finished as an RB2 in expected fantasy points and gets a great matchup this week.

Cowboys (27.5 Implied Points)

The Cowboys hit 89th-percentile passing efficiency the hard way last week by not generating a single explosive pass play.
Their 31 targets were concentrated on CeeDee Lamb (eight), George Pickens (six), Ryan Flournoy (five), and Javonte Williams (five).
Lamb, Pickens, and Williams are must-starts, especially with 27.5 implied points.
Flournoy’s five targets were a nice surprise, as was his role, as he played more in both 11 and 12 personnel compared to last season.
Flournoy seems more like a rare WR handcuff than a player I’d be excited to start without a Lamb or Pickens injury.

Colts at Chiefs (O/U 47.5, KC -6.5)

Colts (20.5 Implied Points)

It was a tough day for the Colts against the Ravens, hitting only 6th percentile passing efficiency, 3rd-worst on the week.
Daniel Jones was pressured on 53% of his dropbacks, according to Next Gen Stats, which was the highest mark on the week.
All five of their key skill players saw between four and six targets; that includes Keenan Allen, Alec Pierce, Tyler Warren, Josh Downs, and Jonathan Taylor.
The good news for Downs is that he led the team in routes, playing 10 of the Colts’ 11 (91%) snaps in 2-TE sets compared to about 15% throughout his career.
The bad news for Downs is that he didn’t earn many targets, something that I expect to turn around quickly given Downs’ historical performance.
Taylor is a must-start every week he plays, but I’d also be willing to start Warren and Downs and hope for a better week despite a matchup with a Chiefs defense that just smothered Bo Nix and the Broncos.

Chiefs (27.0 Implied Points)

The Chiefs only passed at a rate slightly above expectation in Week 1, which is a lot lower than what we’ve seen in the Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes era.
But they were rewarded with 95th percentile rushing efficiency as Kenneth Walker absolutely destroyed the Broncos’ run defense all game.
When they did pass, their targets were concentrated on Xavier Worthy, Kenneth Walker, and Travis Kelce, as no other Chief saw more than two targets.
With 27 implied points against a Colts defense that just got rocked by the Ravens, I’m willing to start most Chiefs.
Rashee Rice is difficult to parse, though.
Rice did score a TD on a nice after-the-catch play, but he only saw two targets on the day.
But in Rice’s worst game in 2025, he hit about 23% of targets per route run; he was at about 7% in Week 1.
It is possible Walker is really eating into Rice’s typical short-area targets, but even still, that 7% is going to increase given Rice has historically been dominant at earning targets.

Giants at Rams (O/U 48.5, LAR -7.0)

Giants (20.75 Implied Points)

The Giants crushed the Cowboys’ defense last week, hitting 98th percentile passing and 75th percentile rushing efficiency.
Malik Nabers, who wasn’t even sure he was going to play until pre-game warmups, paced the team with nine targets, followed by eight for Isaiah Likely.
The box score for Likely was obviously excellent, corralling all eight of his targets for 78 yards and two touchdowns.
But his playing time was only slightly better than it was in Baltimore, which isn’t a huge surprise because his head coach hasn’t changed.
Likely ran 22 of the team’s 32 routes, as he rotated out a lot in 1-TE sets on early downs and also occasionally on 3rd down.
I don’t think you can do much beyond starting him again off the two-TD game, but if you get an offer you can’t refuse, I’d pull the trigger.
Cam Skattebo dominated the ground work, taking 18 carries compared to Devin Singletary’s six, but Singletary ran four more routes and earned four more targets.
The rushing usage makes Skattebo startable, but we’ll just have to hope for more targets on a limited route rate.

Rams (27.75 Implied Points)

The Rams were 2nd-to-last in PROE last week, only passing more than the Cooper Rush Falcons.
And it was a miserable day overall, hitting the 13th percentile in passing efficiency and a bottom-five success rate for the week.
Puka Nacua earned a massive nine targets on only 20 routes, so his JSN-like target earning continued.
Davante Adams earned six targets on 21 routes, and no other Ram saw more than three targets.
The weird thing with Adams was he was rotated out when the Rams were near the goal line, after absolutely dominating near the end zone last year.
At RB, the ground work was split evenly between Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, though Williams ran 21 routes to Corum’s three and ultimately led in snaps 39 to 14.
So, Williams is a must-start while Corum should be left on benches given the complete lack of passing game involvement.