Fantasy Football Week 7 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Every Game Previewed | Hoopes There It Is

Oct 21, 2026

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Welcome to another edition of Hoopes There It Is! We’re previewing every game in Week 7, highlighting advanced stats like EPA, success rate, pass rate over expected (PROE), and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) to help make the best decisions for your fantasy teams. I’ll provide a quick start/sit section at the top that stems from the longer write-ups. And if you’re interested in more, which I hope you are, you can jump to any of the 14 games this week. Let’s get started!

Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Tyler Higbee (Start): Tyler Higbee suddenly became very important at work because Davante Adams’ hamstring injury is expected to sideline him for six to 10 weeks. Terrance Ferguson is eligible to return from IR in Week 8, but recent reporting suggests he won’t be activated for a few weeks after that. That makes Higbee the 2nd receiving weapon for the Rams in my opinion. Colby Parkinson was 2nd on the team in targets last week with six, but he ran only 19 of the team’s 36 routes, compared to 29 for Higbee. The Rams have a high 26 implied points, and the Raiders’ pass defense is bad, ranking in the bottom eight of both efficiency and success rate allowed.

Jake Ferguson (Sit): The Cowboys trailed throughout Week 6 and passed at a rate about 5% above expectation, leading to a massive 52 targets for the team. Well, Jake Ferguson only earned three of them and finished the day with a 2/13/0 line. He was out-targeted by fellow TE Brevyn Spann-Ford, even though Spann-Ford only ran 16 of the team’s 56 routes. But Spann-Ford took over as the primary TE in 11 personnel on early downs, according to PFF, and that was enough to limit Ferguson to only 29 routes or about a 52% route share. Ferguson has exceeded 23 receiving yards once this season, and he’s TE28 in expected fantasy points per game.

A.J. Brown (Start): This one should be obvious, but I thought it needed to be said. A.J. Brown returned from his ankle injury in Week 6 and paced the team with nine targets. But the problem was he only caught three of them as he struggled with drops. This is your reminder that drops do not matter at all unless they start changing coaching decisions. That’s not going to be an issue in Week 7. And Brown now gets a Bears pass defense that is dead-last in explosive play rate allowed. Follow the targets, ignore the drops.

All Giants RBs (Sit): I hope you caught that I updated the article last week when the reporting came out that Najee Harris would start at RB for the Giants. I called Cam Skattebo a start and then felt the need to update that call given the Giants’ coaching staff lost their minds. Well, Harris is already off the team, but the Giants are still expected to play three RBs with an unknown split. And the team might be starting JJ McCarthy with about 16 implied points. This is a situation to avoid entirely.

Germie Bernard (Start): Germie Bernard is still only started in 40% of Yahoo fantasy leagues, and I think that should be much higher. The Steelers are now 2nd in PROE, and they’ve only passed at a rate below expectation once this season. So, we’re getting a lot of team targets that have been heavily concentrated on just two players: DK Metcalf and Bernard. Now the Steelers get a Saints pass defense that is bottom-five in success rate allowed and typically see a lot of plays against them because of how fast their offense plays. The only other thing we’d like to see is Aaron Rodgers bring back some air yards in the offense.

Patriots at Bears (O/U 50.5, CHI -3.5)

Patriots (23.5 Implied Points)

Week 6 was another efficient passing day for Drake Maye, as the Pats hit 71st percentile passing EPA per play but threw the ball at a rate 4.1% below expectation.
A.J. Brown paced the team with nine targets but only caught three of them as he struggled with drop issues.
But for our purposes, drops do not matter at all unless they start changing coaching decisions, and I think we’re a long way off from that.
The matchup for Brown isn’t amazing this week as the Bears’ pass defense is 7th in efficiency and 3rd in success rate allowed, but somehow, they’re dead-last in explosive play rate allowed.
Fire up Brown with confidence, and then someone like Demario Douglas could be an option as Romeo Doubs just landed on IR due to a shoulder injury he suffered in Week 6.
At RB, Rhamondre Stevenson remains the back you want as he out-snapped TreVeyon Henderson 41 to 16 in Week 6 and out-carried him 14 to seven.
But Corey Kiner seemingly won’t go away, as he only played 12 snaps but got 11 carries on those snaps and was much more efficient than Stevenson on that work.
The Bears are bottom eight in the league in rushing efficiency and explosive run rate allowed, but this is becoming an even tougher backfield to parse.

Bears (27.0 Implied Points)

Caleb Williams returned in Week 6, and the Bears opted to push the pass volume, hitting +7.4% PROE, which was a new season high.
But they also cut out the air yards, with Williams tying Aaron Rodgers for the lowest air yards per attempt in Week 6 at only 3.6.
They still managed 65th percentile passing efficiency in the process, and Williams was 2nd behind only C.J. Stroud in completion percentage over expectation.
That style of play should benefit Luther Burden and Colston Loveland the most, and they easily paced the team with targets, earning eight and seven, respectively.
The weird thing about Burden was he hit a season low in snaps despite earning a new season high in targets.
But I think that was mostly game script, as the Bears had a massive lead against the Falcons for most of the game, with the Falcons only getting the score close at the end due to a 16-point 4th quarter.
And the Bears use a lot more heavy-TE sets with a lead, with Burden essentially not playing in 13 personnel and hitting only a 16% snap rate in 12 personnel over his last two games, according to PFF.
If we expect this game to stay close, then we should see more Burden.
At RB, Kyle Monangai was listed as a practice non-participant both Monday and Tuesday, increasing the odds he sits once again in Week 7.
With Monangai sidelined in Week 6, D’Andre Swift led Roschon Johnson in snaps 45 to 31, routes 25 to 14, targets four to two, and carries 16 to 13.
Swift is a must-start given the implied points and the generally below-average state of the Patriots’ run defense.

Steelers at Saints (O/U 44.5, PIT -3.5)

Steelers (24.0 Implied Points)

The Steelers had about the same high PROE and low aDoT as the Bears last week; the difference is the Steelers only hit 19th percentile efficiency.
But the Steelers are now 2nd in PROE in the league, passing at a rate below expectation only once this season.
That led to a high 43 team targets, which were heavily concentrated on DK Metcalf and Germie Bernard, with each player seeing 12+ targets.
This Saints’ pass defense is generally bad, as they’re bottom-five in success rate allowed, and they see a lot of plays against them because the Saints’ offense plays at a fast pace.
Metcalf and Bernard are clear starts given the target concentration, state of the Saints’ pass defense, and the potential for a high number of plays, but it sure would be nice if Rodgers decided to attempt deeper passes again.
At RB, Rico Dowdle returned from injury in Week 6.
And the Steelers actually gave Jaylen Warren most of the work, as Warren led Dowdle in snaps 59 to 21, routes 31 to 11, and carries 14 to seven.
The snaps were actually close through three quarters, according to PFF, but Warren took 31 of 37 snaps in the 4th quarter and overtime.
Warren is a clear start against the Saints’ league-worst run defense.

Saints (20.5 Implied Points)

The Saints passed at a rate slightly above expectation in each of their first four games, and then have sharply reversed course, going really run-heavy over their last two games.
And that’s annoying because their fast pace and high pass rate were letting the skill players crush despite poor efficiency from Tyler Shough.
Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele paced the team in targets once again, but it was only seven and five, respectively, compared to the double digits we saw through four weeks.
Olave is the only must-start against a strong Steelers’ pass defense that is at least susceptible to explosive plays.
It’s still a mess at RB, as Kendre Miller, C.J. Donaldson, and Alvin Kamara all saw at least 19 snaps.
If you’re going to start one, Miller is the clear pick as he saw 20 carries on his 32 snaps last week.
The issue is that Miller isn’t very good, as only 2% of his carries have gone for 10+ yards this season; only David Montgomery has been worse.

Giants at Texans (O/U 42.5, HOU -10.0)

Giants (16.25 Implied Points)

The market must be assuming that J.J. McCarthy is starting this week because nearly 16 implied points are brutal.
We’re also looking at a new starting RB for the Giants, as they decided to cut Najee Harris after naming him the starter, giving him four carries, and quickly seeing the error of their ways.
Even if it’s McCarthy at the helm, you’re starting Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely as they’ve dominated the passing volume to date, including 10+ targets for each of them in Week 6.
Likely actually led the team with 51 routes, quickly followed by Nabers’ 49.
But you can’t possibly start a Giants RB until we see some stability in the split between the three remaining backs, let alone the very low team implied points.

Texans (26.25 Implied Points)

C.J. Stroud was awesome last week, with the Texans hitting 89th percentile passing efficiency and leaning into the pass with a +3.6% PROE.
The offensive line is still bad, as Stroud was pressured on 40% of his dropbacks and faced a quick pressure on 26% of his dropbacks, according to Sumer Sports.
But it didn’t matter because Stroud went 11/13 for 147 yards and 2 TDs when facing pressure.
It was weird that Nico Collins only earned four targets, though you’re starting Collins every week.
Jaylin Noel and Marvin Harrison Jr. actually tied Collins with four targets each, though neither played much.
Noel only ran 22 of the team’s 36 routes, and Harrison was really eased in with only nine routes.
And now Tank Dell is going to play this week, so I’d hold off on starting any WR besides Collins until we see how the team splits up the routes between Noel, Harrison, and Dell.
At RB, my assumption is that David Montgomery sits once again because he didn’t practice at all last week and the Texans have their bye in Week 8.
In Montgomery’s absence, Woody Marks dominated the work, running 25 routes to Jawhar Jordan’s four and taking 15 carries to Jordan’s six.
I know that Jordan scored a rushing TD, but six carries and one target just aren’t enough for sustainable production, with Marks a reasonable start against a below-average Giants’ run defense.

Buccaneers at Panthers (O/U 44.5, CAR -3.5)

Buccaneers (20.5 Implied Points)

The spread being this close is a testament to the Buccaneers’ defense rather than anything the offense is doing.
The Bucs’ offense hit just 11th percentile passing efficiency in Week 6 and a brutal 32.1% success rate.
But Emeka Egbuka earned 16 (!) of the team’s 40 targets last week and is a must-start given that massive amount of volume.
And the only other Buccaneer you’re starting is Bucky Irving, who dominated the RB work in Week 6, seeing 63 snaps to Kenny Gainwell’s 11.
Week 6 was a new career-high in snap rate for Irving, according to PFF.
And we could see volume for the offense here, as the Panthers’ offense is top-three in PROE and plays per game this season, with the Bucs offense potentially needing to keep pace.

Panthers (24.0 Implied Points)

The Panthers’ offense is up to 8th in efficiency and is average in success rate; both of those are much better than we expected coming into the season.
And they’re giving fantasy managers a lot of volume to go along with that efficiency, as they’re playing fast and passing a lot.
Jalen Coker and Tetairoa McMillan are must-starts as they are consolidating the passing volume, taking 19 of the team’s 31 targets last week.
And then Chuba Hubbard is also a must-start as he saw an insane 74 of the team’s 79 snaps in Week 6.
That included 28 of the 29 RB carries, though he only earned one target on 35 routes given his limitations as a receiver.
Tough matchups all around against a very good Bucs defense, but we should see a lot of passing attempts as the Panthers are 3rd in PROE and opponents pass on the Bucs at the 4th-highest rate in the league.

Colts at Vikings (O/U 41.5, MIN -6.5)

Colts (17.5 Implied Points)

The Colts’ passing attack has been bad this season, and they were bad once again in Week 6, hitting only 35th percentile efficiency and passing at a rate 5.3% below expectation.
Keenan Allen and Josh Downs paced the team with 12 and seven targets, respectively, but both are top-seven in the league in the difference between their expected fantasy points and their actual fantasy points.
That’s really a systemic problem with this Colts’ passing attack, and the team now faces a Vikings’ pass defense that is 1st in efficiency, success rate, and CPOE allowed.
I’d expected a very run-heavy approach from the Colts, as opponents of the Vikings run on them at the 2nd-highest rate in the league vs. expectation, and the Colts are already 24th in PROE.
I’d be willing to sit all my Colts’ pass catchers given the matchup, depending on my other options.
You’re obviously starting Jonathan Taylor, but the Vikings’ defense is also 1st in rushing efficiency and success rate allowed.
Temper your expectations across the board in this one.

Vikings (24.0 Implied Points)

The undefeated Vikings are coming off their bye week.
In Week 5, Justin Jefferson paced the team with seven targets and is obviously a must-start every week.
And then Aaron Jones took all 25 of the team’s RB carries and ran 27 of the team’s 40 routes.
But we’ll get Jordan Mason back in our lives this week, and my expectation is that they’ll be keen to give him the bulk of the carries.
It’s a good matchup as well, as the Colts’ run defense is bottom-three in both efficiency and success rate allowed.
It’s hard to recommend Mason as a start until we hear more coach speak about his role or whether he’ll be limited in his first game back, but I’d lean toward starting him.

Bengals at Ravens (O/U 51.5, BAL -3.0)

Bengals (24.25 Implied Points)

The Bengals are coming off their bye and a win against the Dolphins before that.
In that Week 5 win, Ja’Marr Chase earned 10 of the team’s 30 targets, followed by only four for Tee Higgins; both are must-starts every week.
It’s messier at RB as Chase Brown and Samaje Perine essentially split the snaps and carries in Week 5; Brown did run 23 routes compared to Perine’s 12.
Brown continues to pop in my RB buy-low model because he’s been getting a lot of work but has been inefficient on his rushing attempts.
Now, Brown did fumble in the 2nd quarter of Week 5, and maybe that was part of the reason that Perine mixed in more often, but given that Perine was more efficient on his touches, it’s possible this split moves in any direction going forward.
My assumption is that Brown sees the majority of the work in Week 7, so I’d start him, but there’s more variance here compared to Weeks 1 through 4.

Ravens (27.25 Implied Points)

My assumption is that Lamar Jackson starts this week, though that’s what I thought last week, and we saw Tyler Huntley at the helm again.
But at over 27 implied points, the sportsbooks seem to be making the same assumption.
Jackson, Zay Flowers, and Derrick Henry are must-starts any week they’re active.
The secondary WR and TE spots are more interesting for the Ravens.
Rashod Bateman hurt his shoulder after 11 routes in Week 6, though my assumption is that Bateman will be ok.
But in Bateman’s absence, Devontez Walker ran four more routes than Ja’Kobi Lane, but Lane ended the day tied for 2nd on the team with five targets.
It’s an uphill climb for Lane given that I expect Bateman to play and that Walker saw more routes even with Bateman out, but Lane is worth a speculative add to see how his role progresses.
At TE, Josh Cuevas continues to eat into Mark Andrews’ role, as Andrews ran only 25 of the team’s 38 routes and Cuevas earned five targets on just 14 routes and scored a TD.
You can’t start Cuevas because of the route limitations, but he’s doing enough to limit Andrews.
Having said that, basically every TE goes off against the Bengals’ defense, so Andrews is viable this week in particular depending on your other options.

Browns at Titans (O/U 38.5, CLE -1.5)

Browns (20.0 Implied Points)

The Browns were bad with limited play volume in Week 6, but somehow managed to win with only 13 points.
KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston paced the team with six and five targets, respectively, but the Titans’ opponents opt to run on them at the highest rate in the league versus expectation.
And my expectation is that Quinshon Judkins is back from injury this week, as he went all the way to pre-game warmups before being declared inactive in Week 6.
What’s interesting is that the Titans’ run defense is their strength, as they’re top 12 in efficiency, success rate, and explosive run rate allowed.
But assuming Judkins plays, I’d expect a lot of volume for him in a slow, low-scoring affair.

Titans (18.5 Implied Points)

The Titans’ offense was just bad instead of awful in Week 6, hitting 36th percentile passing and 38th percentile rushing efficiency.
They still didn’t have any play volume with just 18 targets and 22 carries, and they’re easily last in the league in plays per game.
That makes it tough for fantasy, as Carnell Tate earned 39% of his team’s targets, which would’ve meant 17 targets on the Steelers but was only seven on the Titans.
I think Tate is really talented like I discussed last week, but the offensive environment means he’s an option-dependent sit.
At RB, Tony Pollard dominated the work, taking 19 of the team’s 20 carries, while running seven more routes than Tyjae Spears.
But that resulted in 76 scoreless yards and no receptions for Pollard, as Pollard only has one TD this season given the state of the offense.

Dolphins at Jets (O/U 38.5, NYJ -4.5)

Dolphins (17.0 Implied Points)

The Dolphins are coming off their bye week and a loss to the Bengals before that.
It’s a brutal environment for fantasy as they’re very inefficient on very low volume.
Malik Washington and Kevin Coleman led the team in Week 5 with eight and seven targets, respectively.
But the Jets’ pass defense is generally average, which means I’d rather look elsewhere than the Dolphins’ passing attack for fantasy.
At RB, Ollie Gordon dominated the work, running 20 of the team’s 34 routes and taking 18 of the 24 RB carries.
Despite the routes, Gordon didn’t earn a target, but he did score a rushing TD.
Starting Gordon is very much like starting Tony Pollard; you feel pretty good about the workload in the run game, but you’re missing out on basically any high-value touch through the pass game or near the goal line.
But to Gordon’s credit, he’s now scored in three consecutive games.

Jets (21.5 Implied Points)

The Jets’ passing attack was good against the Patriots last week, hitting 67th percentile efficiency and a really good 57.1% success rate.
Their main issue was short-yardage rushing failures, which showed up in their 14th percentile rushing efficiency last week.
Omar Cooper actually led the team with seven targets, and I’m sure he was a popular waiver add by the time you’re reading this.
I would call out that Adonai Mitchell might return from his finger injury and dampen Cooper’s breakout, with the WR playing alongside Wilson in 12 personnel, something I’m really interested in seeing when Mitchell returns.
And then Garrett Wilson is a must-start every week, but especially against a Dolphins’ pass defense that is bottom two in efficiency, success rate, and CPOE allowed.
At RB, Braelon Allen dominated the work, taking 54 snaps to Isaiah Davis’ eight, though Davis made the most of those snaps with seven carries and one target.
Allen is a strong start if Breece Hall sits again, though I’d fire up Hall if he plays.

49ers at Falcons (O/U 48.5, SF -3.0)

49ers (25.75 Implied Points)

The 49ers’ efficiency machine kept rolling in Week 6, but this time it was the rushing attack that led the way, hitting 96th percentile efficiency and a downright fantastic 66.7% success rate.
Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle paced the team in targets with 10 and eight, respectively.
Mike Evans earned 31% TPRR, but he only ran 16 routes because of Achilles tendinitis.
Kyle Shanahan said that Evans won’t require additional testing or imaging and could play this week, but the 49ers do have their bye in Week 8, so my assumption is that Evans sits.
CMC and Kittle are must-starts regardless of whether Evans plays.
We could see some pass volume in this game as the 49ers are 7th in PROE and the Falcons have a very strong run defense that prompts opponents to pass on them at the 2nd highest rate in the league versus expectation.
At RB, CMC dominated the RB work again in Week 6, leading Kaelon Black in snaps 53 to 14, though Black did see eight carries and a target on his limited snap share.

Falcons (22.75 Implied Points)

The Falcons leaned into the pass in Week 6, hitting a positive PROE for the first time all season.
That led to 32 targets compared to only 11 carries, which is a big surprise for a team with Bijan Robinson.
Drake London and Kyle Pitts paced the team with 10 and seven targets, respectively.
London is obviously a must-start every week, but we also saw some encouraging things from Pitts.
Yes, he scored two TDs, but from a sustainability standpoint, it was more important that he played 93% of snaps in 11 personnel on early downs, according to PFF, which is about double his usual percentage.
That led to Pitts running about 75% of the routes, which is much better than what we’ve seen to start the year and makes him viable as a starter again.
And you’re always starting Bijan Robinson, despite a tougher matchup against a 49ers’ run defense that bends in success rate but does not break by allowing explosives.

Broncos at Cardinals (O/U 43.5, DEN -4.5)

Broncos (24.0 Implied Points)

Week 6 was another brutal game for the Broncos’ offense.
The passing attack only hit 24th percentile efficiency, and Bo Nix had the third-lowest air yards per attempt on the week, according to Next Gen Stats.
As we said in last week’s article, there’s no upside in this offense if the Broncos continue to be dead-last in air yards per attempt.
But luckily, the Broncos don’t have to play the Seahawks every week, with the Cardinals’ 3rd-worst pass defense on tap making Jaylen Waddle a start this week.
Waddle paced the team with seven targets on 24 routes last week and is the only Bronco I’m especially interested in starting.
And that’s because at RB, Jonah Coleman is eligible to return this week, and I don’t know what the split will look like between J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey, and Coleman.
Dobbins has generally been bad, and Harvey has only been trusted in the pass game, meaning there is a real opening for Coleman here if he’s talented enough to take it.

Cardinals (19.5 Implied Points)

The Cardinals sharply reversed course in Week 6, hitting -8.9% PROE, which was by far their lowest mark this season.
Opponents did opt to run on the Rams at the 7th-highest rate versus expectation going into the game, but even with that context, this was a large change.
I’d guess we could see that again this week, as opponents run on the Broncos at a similar rate to the Rams, largely because the Broncos’ run defense is much weaker than their pass defense.
That will hurt the volume for the receivers, though Trey McBride is a must-start every week, against every opponent.
And I’m still starting Michael Wilson, though he’s cooled off a lot in recent weeks, as Kendrick Bourne has proven to be a better target earner than Marvin Harrison Jr. was on the Cardinals, even if Bourne’s targets had a really low 4.4 air yards per target.
At RB, Jeremiyah Love sat in Week 6, so Tyler Allgeier and Bam Knight split the work, with Knight looking much more efficient on his touches.
Knight’s success makes the backfield more difficult to parse, but I’d be willing to start Love depending on the coach speak about his health throughout the week.

Packers at Lions (O/U 53.5, DET -3.0)

Packers (25.25 Implied Points)

This should be a fun one, and if you’re breaking ties, I’d start the players in this game given the 53.5 projected game total.
The Packers hit 7.7% PROE last week, the 4th consecutive week that they’ve passed at a rate above expectation given how bad their rushing attack has been.
Matthew Golden paced the team with 13 targets last week, while Christian Watson and Tucker Kraft earned eight each.
Those three players are must-starts against a very bad Lions’ pass defense.
At RB, Pierre Strong and MarShawn Lloyd split the work last week, but the expectation is that Josh Jacobs will play in Week 7.
I don’t know what Jacobs’ role will be in his first week off the Commissioner's Exempt List, so he’s hard to recommend until we hear more from the coaching staff.

Lions (28.25 Implied Points)

The Lions are coming off their bye and, before that, a dominant win where they put up a 45-burger on the Cardinals in Week 5.
Amon-Ra St. Brown dominated the targets, earning 11 of the team’s 29.
Jahmyr Gibbs (six), Sam LaPorta (five), and Jameson Williams (four) took almost all the remaining targets.
Gibbs is pacing every skill player in expected fantasy points per game.
Williams is the trickiest of the bunch, but he finally found the endzone (twice) in Week 5, and if you’re a Williams manager, you know by now that you’re going to suffer through down games while trying to find the explosions.
He’s WR33 in expected fantasy points per game, but he’ll likely finish any given game well above or below that mark.
I’d start as many Lions as you can.

Rams at Raiders (O/U 47.5, LAR -4.5)

Rams (26.0 Implied Points)

The Rams are 2-4 on the season…just like we all thought coming into the year.
They were inefficient passing and rushing the ball last week, though their success rates were much stronger than their EPA per play.
Puka Nacua led the team with seven targets, but his 23.3% TPRR was pedestrian compared to his typical rate.
Even with the bad showing, Nacua is WR1 overall in expected points per game, about 1.5 points above Amon-Ra. St. Brown in 2nd.
That gap could widen going forward as the hamstring injury Davante Adams picked up in Week 6 is expected to sideline him for six to 10 weeks.
Terrance Ferguson is eligible to come off of IR in Week 8, but the reporting I read indicates he won’t be activated for a few weeks after that.
But for Week 7 and possibly a little longer, Tyler Higbee is my preferred TE play.
Colby Parkinson actually was 2nd on the team in targets last week with six, but he only ran 19 of the team’s 36 routes.
Meanwhile, Higbee ran 29 routes, so I’d trust that role more against a bad Raiders’ pass defense.
At RB, Kyren Williams and Blake Corum split the carries, but Williams ran 20 routes to Corum’s six.
I’d prefer not to start Corum in this one given the touch limitations, but the Raiders’ run defense is 2nd-worst in explosive run rate allowed, so it just takes one long TD run for Corum to hit in fantasy.

Raiders (21.5 Implied Points)

The Raiders hit 80th percentile passing efficiency in Week 6 and are now up to 5th on the season as well as 3rd in success rate.
Michael Mayer actually paced the team with nine targets, but as TE19 in expected points this season, I wouldn’t trust him in my lineup.
Similar for Tre Tucker, who earned seven targets, though that was in a great matchup against the Bills; Tucker is up to WR31 in expected points after a strong Week 6.
Brock Bowers earned eight targets and is the only must-start player on the Raiders, as he’s TE1 overall in expected points and one of only two TEs with more than 14 expected fantasy points per game (the other is Trey McBride).
While he’s not a must-start, I still would start Ashton Jeanty.
Jeanty split the carries last week with Mike Washington, as Washington took about half of the early-down snaps in order to ease Jeanty’s workload, given he’s still clearly dealing with an injury even if he doesn’t have a designation.
But that left Jeanty to focus on the passing-down work, and he earned six targets on his 19 routes.
It’s the six targets per game that keep Jeanty’s workload elite, as he’s RB5 overall in expected points.
But injuries are sapping his effectiveness as he’s underperformed his expected points by about four per game, which is the 5th highest rate among qualifying RBs.

Chiefs at Seahawks (O/U 42.5, SEA -2.5)

Chiefs (20.0 Implied Points)

The Chiefs easily beat the Chargers last week, as the Chargers are incapable of doing anything on offense.
So, despite going +8.2% PROE, that only led to 26 team targets because of the game environment.
Without Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce took about half of those targets, earning seven and five, respectively.
My assumption is that Rice plays this week, but I haven’t seen any news to really back up that assumption this early in the week.
It’s a very difficult matchup in Week 7 against a Seahawks pass defense that is top two in efficiency, success rate, explosive play rate, and air yards per attempt allowed.
I’d be more interested in Worthy and Kelce if Rice sits again, but we’ll need to temper our expectations all around.
And Kenneth Walker is a must-start against any opponent, as he’s 2nd behind only Jahmyr Gibbs in expected fantasy points per game among all skill players.
But his ceiling could be dinged by a Seahawks run defense that is top five in efficiency, success rate, and explosive play rate allowed.

Seahawks (22.5 Implied Points)

The Seahawks’ passing attack was bad in Week 6, hitting 32nd percentile efficiency as the team put up only 14 points.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba unsurprisingly dominated the targets, earning a massive 16 of the team’s 40, as the Seahawks lost in overtime.
JSN is the only Seahawks receiver I want to start, but Cooper Kupp would be my 2nd choice given he tied Rashid Shaheed in targets last week but ran 21 more routes.
And it’s a mess at RB.
My assumption is that Zach Charbonnet returns in Week 7, but that’s not a given yet.
If that wasn’t enough, Jadarian Price is eligible to return in Week 8.
If you’re in a pinch, I’d be comfortable dropping Emanuel Wilson and George Holani, but largely I’m waiting to see how this backfield shakes out before starting anyone.

Cowboys at Eagles (O/U 44.5, DAL -4.5)

Cowboys (24.5 Implied Points)

The Cowboys have been very consistent in their approach over the last few weeks, barely deviating from about +4% PROE.
In a game where they were trailing throughout, that led to a massive 52 targets compared to only 14 carries.
CeeDee Lamb led the way with 17 targets, which nearly beat some entire NFL teams in Week 6.
George Pickens was second with 10, Ryan Flournoy popped up for nine, and then Brevyn Spann-Ford was fourth on the team with five.
Lamb and Pickens are must-starts every week.
Flournoy has earned at least four targets in every game and is WR43 in expected points; he’s a flex play in this matchup given bye weeks and the Cowboys’ high implied point total.
Spann-Ford’s role isn’t sufficient to play him in fantasy, but he’s doing enough to make Jake Ferguson unplayable.
Spann-Ford’s five targets were great, and he took over as the primary TE in 11 personnel on early downs, according to PFF, but he still only ran 16 of the team’s 56 routes, while Ferguson ran 29.
At RB, Javonte Williams is a must-start as he played on 57 of the team’s 78 snaps, ran 20 routes, and took 11 of the 13 RB carries; he’s RB9 in expected fantasy points per game.
Williams already has 15 goal-line carries this season, which is tied with Derrick Henry for 1st; he had 20 all last season.

Eagles (20.0 Implied Points)

As an Eagles fan, I have so many questions about how the Jalen Hurts stuff went down that I won’t write here, but I do hope Hurts recovers well from the blood clots and returns healthy next season.
After passing at a rate below expectation for the first four weeks, the Eagles have sharply reversed course with Tanner McKee at the helm, hitting a massive +12.5% PROE last week.
It didn’t work as they hit only 28th percentile passing efficiency in a mostly unwatchable loss to the Panthers.
But the passing volume is good news for the pass catchers, as Devonta Smith saw 12 targets and Dallas Goedert saw eight.
Both are strong starts despite McKee, as the Cowboys’ pass defense is atrocious, ranking in the bottom five of every stat that I track.
If Saquon Barkley starts, you’re playing him, but I don’t have a read on his status this early in the week.
Dameon Pierce at the very least consolidated the touches, seeing a massive 61 of the team’s 64 snaps in Week 6.
He didn’t do much on the opportunity, but he saved his fantasy day with a rushing TD.
The volume alone makes him a start, and he’s actually RB21 in expected fantasy points per game on a small sample.