Fantasy Football Week 9 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Every Game Previewed | Hoopes There It Is

Nov 04, 2026

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect Source

Welcome to another edition of Hoopes There It Is! We’re previewing every game in Week 9, highlighting advanced stats like EPA, success rate, pass rate over expected (PROE), and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) to help make the best decisions for your fantasy teams. I’ll provide a quick start/sit section at the top that stems from the longer write-ups. And if you’re interested in more, which I hope you are, you can jump to any of the 15 games this week. Let’s get started!

Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Jonah Coleman (Start): With RJ Harvey on IR, the Denver backfield consolidated to just JK Dobbins and Jonah Coleman last week. The plan going into the game seemed to favor Dobbins as he played three more snaps than Coleman in the 1st quarter, according to PFF. But seemingly after a big loss on a Dobbins stretch run, Sean Payton pushed more and more work onto Coleman, including 19 of the team’s 21 2nd-half snaps. Payton’s notorious for changing up his player usage on a dime, but two things are in Coleman’s favor this week. The first is Bo Nix’s allergy to air yards, which should benefit Coleman’s receiving work. And the second is the Panthers’ run defense, which is 25th in efficiency and 22nd in explosive run rate allowed.

Quinshon Judkins (Start): Quinshon Judkins saw 12 fewer snaps than Dylan Sampson last week. But that was only because of the game script. Sampson plays a lot more when the Browns are in catch-up mode, and that was the case for the entire game against the Steelers. But the sportsbooks think this game against the Saints will be close, meaning we’ll see more Judkins. Additionally, this Saints’ run defense is awful, ranking dead-last in efficiency and success rate allowed. And the pace of the Saints’ offense tends to create more plays for their opponents.

Malik Willis (Start): The Dolphins are implied for a solid 22 points this week, which is a testament to a Lions’ pass defense that is bottom-five in passing efficiency, success rate, and explosive play rate allowed. While the Dolphins’ pass game wasn’t as efficient as their fantastic Week 7 performance, they still were slightly above average in Week 8. Willis now has two passing TDs in consecutive games, 6+ carries in four of his seven games this season, and a fantastic matchup this week. He’s a low-end QB1 to me as the way the Dolphins want to attack, via deep passes, is exactly how Lions’ opponents have attacked them this season. We’ll need some passing explosives and rushing from Willis for this to hit.

Commanders’ RBs (Sit): The backfield split has cleaned up a bit here as Jeremy McNichols has unfortunately landed on IR. He took 12 snaps for the Commanders before leaving last week. Rachaad White took 28 snaps, while Austin Ekeler saw 20, according to PFF. If we only had one of these guys in our lives, I think the sell would be a lot easier. But it’s still a timeshare against a Rams’ run defense that is top 10 in efficiency, success rate, and explosive play rate allowed.

Jaguars at Ravens (O/U 42.5, JAX -9.5)

Jaguars (26.0 Implied Points)

The Jaguars were the most consistent team in pass rate over expected (PROE)…until Week 8 when they hit -15.4%.
To be fair, that was in a 42-7 demolition of the lowly Colts, but my fear for the pass catchers is we could see a similar situation this week against the Ravens with someone named Joe Fagnano at QB.
The Jags were efficient in the rare occasions they passed the ball last week, but that only resulted in 16 team targets, with no pass catcher seeing more than three.
This is perhaps the central theme of this series: individual player talent is important, but so is team-level volume.
I don’t think it’s insane to sit basically any non-RB here given the projected low number of targets and the lack of concentration in those targets last week.
Bhayshul Tuten is the only must-start player on this offense, though we’ll need to monitor his injury status as he was listed as a non-participant for Monday’s walkthrough and Tuesday’s practice.
In Week 8, Tuten led Chris Rodriguez in snaps, 27 to 12, and carries, 16 to six, while splitting the routes.
The Ravens’ defense has been great at limiting explosive runs but otherwise has been below average in efficiency and success rate allowed.

Ravens (16.5 Implied Points)

What an absolutely terrible runout for this entire team, but specifically Zay Flowers.
Going into last week, Flowers had 7.8 yards per route run with Lamar Jackson at QB, but it was on a frustratingly small 45 routes.
Well, it sounds like we won’t see this combination for the rest of the 2026 season with Jackson suffering a season-ending thumb injury in Week 8.
With only 16.5 implied points coming off a game where they hit 1st percentile passing efficiency (somehow not the worst mark on the week), I’d be comfortable sitting all Ravens.
The run game at least hit 38th percentile efficiency last week, but Derrick Henry hasn’t had a 20+ yard run in five weeks and hasn’t hit 60+ rushing yards in three weeks, and now plays one of the best run defenses in the league.
One potential positive for Henry, and negative for the player and the Jaguars, is that star DT DaVon Hamilton is potentially done for the season, meaning this matchup is not as tough as it looks on paper.

Bengals at Falcons (O/U 52.5, CIN -3.0)

Bengals (27.75 Implied Points)

The Bengals passed at a rate 13.8% above expectation last week; it’s rare to see a team this committed to the pass in the modern NFL.
That plus overtime gave the Bengals 47 team targets in Week 8, about triple the amount the Jaguars had, for example.
They were fantastic passing once again, hitting 83rd percentile efficiency and a 64.9% success rate; they’re up to 4th and 1st in those metrics this season, respectively.
The targets were heavily concentrated with Ja’Marr Chase earning 16, Tee Higgins 11, Chase Brown nine, and Mike Gesicki six.
You’re starting Chase and Higgins every week against any opponent.
Chase Brown easily led the backfield with 51 snaps compared to Samaje Perine’s 26, with Brown seeing 21 more routes, eight more targets, and eight more carries than Perine.
Brown *still* hasn’t scored a TD since Week 1, but there’s not much to do here besides start him against a Falcons defense that just got obliterated by the Buccaneers’ run game.
Mike Gesicki has 17 receptions and six TDs; he’s the poster boy for regression candidates.
The tricky part is he might keep getting away with it because of team injuries at the position; both Tanner Hudson and Erick All were placed on IR in recent weeks.
And because of those injuries, Gesicki hit a season-high 67.6% snap rate, according to PFF.
We might have to start taking Gesicki seriously as a cheap way to get exposure to the Bengals’ passing attack.

Falcons (24.75 Implied Points)

This is a high implied point number for a team coming off zero points.
The Falcons passed at a rate 17.4% below expectation and hit 0th percentile passing efficiency and an awful 26.9% success rate.
Sportsbooks are taking last week as a fluke given the weather and the strength of the Buccaneers’ defense.
And I think we should largely do the same; you’re still starting Bijan Robinson and Drake London every week with the Bengals’ defense a much easier task than the Buccaneers’.
Probably the most mad I’ve made people in this series was suggesting to bench Kyle Pitts last week, but I hope you did given his two-catch, six-yard performance.
But I think Pitts is viable this week given he ran 19 of the team’s 25 routes last week; he was 3rd in targets, and the Bengals have been very soft against opposing TEs for a while now.

Jets at Chiefs (O/U 46.5, KC -9.5)

Jets (18.5 Implied Points)

My initial thought is that I’m surprised by the nearly 10-point spread.
The Jets’ offense was great last week, hitting 80th percentile passing and 85th percentile rushing efficiency.
The box score still wasn’t great for Garrett Wilson, but the 12 targets were really promising, and I’d continue to start him.
And I was just multiple weeks too early on Adonai Mitchell, who looked left for dead after Omar Cooper’s Week 7 performance.
But last week Mitchell earned nine targets to Cooper’s zero on the exact same number of routes; it looks like this is going to be tough to parse going forward.
I think Mitchell is very talented, but Cooper has also flashed and gets the benefit of playing in 12 personnel, with Mitchell only seeing 23% of the 12 personnel snaps, according to PFF.
The Chiefs’ pass defense is strong and has limited opponents to the lowest air yards per attempt in the league, so my preference would be to sit both Cooper and Mitchell this week given the team’s low implied point total.
It’s also going to be tricky to parse the RB situation with Breece Hall returning this week.
In Hall’s absence, Braelon Allen dominated the RB work and looked good in the process, so I’d assume he eats into Hall’s workload going forward.
And now the Jets get a Chiefs’ run defense that is top nine in efficiency, success rate, and explosive rate allowed.

Chiefs (28.0 Implied Points)

This is a great implied points number for the Chiefs, who had a nice game offensively despite a frustrating loss to the Broncos in Week 8.
They passed at a rate 6.8% above expectation and hit 74th percentile passing and 66th percentile rushing efficiency.
Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce paced the team with eight and seven targets, respectively, and both are starts against a Jets pass defense that is 28th in efficiency and 24th in success rate allowed.
And I know Kenneth Walker had a tough box score game, but you’re starting him every week against any opponent; he’s RB3 overall in expected fantasy points per game.
Emmett Johnson had a fantastic Week 8, earning 128 receiving yards, 121 of which came after the catch.
But he still needs to be on your bench because he only saw 12 snaps compared to Walker’s 56 and only had one carry; that’s just not nearly enough volume to be flex-worthy.

Lions at Dolphins (O/U 50.5, DET -7.0)

Lions (28.75 Implied Points)

The Lions’ PROE dropped sharply last week, as they passed at a rate 15.5% below expectation.
But I think that was game-plan specific against a Vikings’ defense that opponents ran on at the highest rate in the league to avoid their blitzes.
With that low PROE, the Lions only had 24 team targets, with Amon-Ra St. Brown earning eight, Jameson Williams six, and Sam LaPorta five.
You’re starting St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs every week against any opponent.
And you know what you’re getting with the tertiary pieces, which are volatile performances on one of the best offenses in the league.
Williams has been cooking recently, as he scored his fifth TD in three games against the Vikings; I’d fire him up again this week.
LaPorta has struggled over his last two games, but he’s still TE6 in expected fantasy points per game, so I’d keep starting him, especially against a Dolphins’ pass defense that is dead-last in efficiency, success rate, and CPOE allowed.
Gibbs only earned three targets last week, but he did have 23 carries and was the engine of the Lions’ victory, with the team hitting 92nd percentile rushing efficiency in the 2nd half of Week 8.

Dolphins (21.75 Implied Points)

This is a really nice implied point total for the Dolphins, which is a testament to a Lions’ pass defense that is bottom-five in passing efficiency, success rate, and explosive play rate allowed.
While the Dolphins’ pass game wasn’t as efficient as their fantastic Week 7 performance, they still were slightly above average in Week 8.
They’ve yet to pass at a rate above expectation this season, partially explaining why they’re 30th in plays per game.
That makes volume a concern for the pass catchers, along with how spread out the targets have been; four players saw between five and seven targets last week.
My preferred plays on this team are Malik Willis and Ollie Gordon.
Willis has two passing TDs in consecutive games, has had 6+ carries in four of his seven games this season, and has a fantastic matchup this week; he’s a low-end QB1 to me.
And Gordon continues to dominate the RB work, taking 53 of the team’s 65 snaps last week, including running 25 of the team’s 36 routes.
It’s a rare week when the Dolphins are not near the bottom of the league in implied points, which is fantastic for both Willis and Gordon.

Rams at Commanders (O/U 47.5, LAR -5.5)

Rams (26.5 Implied Points)

It didn’t really matter because they were playing the Chargers, but the Rams didn’t pass the ball very efficiently in Week 8.
And it didn’t matter for Puka Nacua either because he took half of the team’s 24 targets and over half of the team’s receiving yards.
You’re starting Nacua every week against any opponent.
And I don’t know Terrance Ferguson’s status at the time I’m writing, but if he’s activated from IR and the coach speak seems positive, I’d be willing to start him.
It’s been messy at TE for the Rams, as Tyler Higbee has maintained the clear route lead in the room but hasn’t done anything with it.
Ferguson was fantastic in Week 2 with Nacua sidelined, and I’d be willing to risk starting him against a bad Commanders’ pass defense.
The RB split was the same as usual for the Rams, with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum rotating by drive but Williams playing the two-minute drill snaps and playing a lot more in close games.
Williams is a must-start, and Corum has been outperforming his workload recently, mostly because he’s scored a TD in four consecutive games.
I prefer to play Corum in games the Rams are expected to win by a decent margin, and that is the expectation here against the Commanders.

Commanders (21.0 Implied Points)

Like the Rams, the Commanders were below average in passing efficiency last week, but it didn’t matter because they were playing the Eagles (sad go birds).
Antonio Williams led the team with six targets and 29 routes (with a season-high snap rate) and turned that into a 5/54/0 line; I think he’s flex-viable depending on your league type.
After Williams, Treylon Burks and Stefon Diggs each earned five targets, while Chig Okonkwo earned four.
Okonkwo was actually 2nd on the team in routes, and while I wouldn’t start him this week against a very good Rams’ pass defense, he should be on your watchlist.
It’s messy at RB, with Rachaad White seeing 28 snaps, Austin Ekeler 20, and Jeremy McNichols 12.
McNichols hurt his foot in the 3rd quarter and didn’t return to the game; he just landed on IR, so that makes it cleaner for White and Ekeler.
But I’d prefer not to start either against a Rams’ run defense that is top 10 in efficiency, success rate, and explosive play rate allowed.

Broncos at Panthers (O/U 43.5, DEN -2.5)

Broncos (23.0 Implied Points)

A battle against two teams that used to generate air yards; Bo Nix and Bryce Young were both bottom-three in air yards per attempt in Week 8.
The Broncos were at least efficient in the process, hitting 78th percentile passing efficiency and getting a TD to the breakout article cover boy Jaylen Waddle.
Waddle led the team in targets last week, but he only ran 19 of the team’s 34 routes due to the chest injury that limited him all week going into the game.
Waddle is the only pass catcher I’d be willing to start on the Broncos, and it’s a good matchup against a below-average Panthers’ pass defense, but we’ll need to monitor Waddle’s injury status because we got bailed out by the TD amid the low route rate last week.
And Jonah Coleman is suddenly a nice start; life comes at you fast.
Coleman saw 40 snaps compared to JK Dobbins’ 14, including 14 more routes and four more carries.
And that’s despite the plan going into the game seeming like a lot of Dobbins, as he played three more snaps than Coleman in the first quarter.
But after a bad Dobbins carry early in the game, Coleman kept seeing more work, including 19 of the team’s 21 snaps in the 2nd half, according to PFF.
Sean Payton is notorious for mixing up his RB room on a dime, but I’d fire up Coleman, especially since Nix’s air yards phobia benefits Coleman’s receiving work.

Panthers (20.5 Implied Points)

It’s been two weeks of poor Panthers’ offensive play after a fantastic start to the year.
They only hit 22nd percentile passing efficiency, and things do not get any easier this week against a Broncos’ pass defense that is top eight in efficiency, success rate, explosive play rate, and CPOE allowed.
The targets are at least concentrated on their top two WRs, so I’d still start Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker, but we’ll need to temper our expectations.
And then Chuba Hubbard is a must-start given his volume; he had eight targets last week and took 22 of the team’s 23 carries.
The weakness of this Broncos’ defense is on the ground; teams opt to run on the Broncos 1.3% more than expected, and the Panthers have reversed course recently, running more than expected in consecutive weeks; there should be volume for Hubbard.

Cowboys at Colts (O/U 51.5, DAL -6.0)

Cowboys (28.75 Implied Points)

At nearly 29 implied points, you’re starting your typical Cowboys in this one.
That includes CeeDee Lamb, who paced the team with nine targets last week, and George Pickens despite his disappointing three-target game.
Pickens is still WR16 in expected fantasy points per game, but he’s seen six or fewer targets in consecutive games, possibly due to shoulder and hamstring injuries.
And then you’re starting Javonte Williams, who took 55 of the team’s 74 snaps in Week 7, including 24 of the 31 RB carries.
Brevyn Spann-Ford is the sicko start of the week, assuming Jake Ferguson doesn’t play after suffering an ankle injury last week.
Spann-Ford ran 71% (27/38) of the team’s routes, which is better than some other TEs we’re starting, and he was 2nd on the team with five targets last week; it’s a low ceiling but a viable play if you’re in a bind at the position.

Colts (22.75 Implied Points)

The fact that this Colts team has nearly 23 implied points is a testament to how bad this Cowboys’ defense is; they’re bottom-seven in every stat I track except rushing success rate allowed, where they’re simply below average.
But I’m writing this on Tuesday, and I don’t know who to recommend because I’m hopeful that both Jonathan Taylor and Josh Downs are no longer Colts by the time you’re potentially reading this.
If Downs is gone, then I’d be more confident starting Tyler Warren, who paced the team with 10 targets last week but turned those into only 18 receiving yards.
And then I’d be willing to start Seth McGowan, I guess, if Taylor is shipped off because he should at least get volume in a good matchup.

Browns at Saints (O/U 43.5, NO -1.5)

Browns (21.0 Implied Points)

The Browns’ offense was terrible in Week 8, hitting 21st percentile passing and 5th percentile rushing efficiency.
We at least got volume as they passed at a rate 3.6% above expectation, leading to 37 team targets.
Harold Fannin and Denzel Boston dominated the targets with 12 and 11, respectively, with Fannin my much-preferred start given Boston is 71st among 73 qualifying WRs in catchable air yards rate, according to FTN, which is going to be a problem as long as Deshaun Watson is at QB.
At RB, Dylan Sampson led Quinshon Judkins in snaps, 39 to 27, but that was only because of the game script, with Sampson on the field in clear passing situations as the Browns tried to climb back into the game.
The sportsbooks think this game will be close, so Quinshon Judkins is a strong start this week against a Saints’ defense that is dead-last in rushing efficiency and success rate allowed.

Saints (22.5 Implied Points)

The Saints are coming off their bye and a loss to the Steelers a week before that.
Chris Olave paced the team with 10 targets, followed by seven for Alvin Kamara, and five for Devaughn Vele.
Olave is the only must-start among the pass catchers, but I’m pretty excited about Jordyn Tyson whenever he’s cleared to play.
At RB in Week 7, CJ Donaldson hurt his shoulder after only four snaps, so the backfield consolidated on Kamara and Kendre Miller.
The two backs split the carries, but Kamara ran 13 more routes, making him the preferred play in the backfield; I think we’ll see more Miller if the game is close.
But Travis Etienne is eligible to return from IR this week; I don’t know his status at the time I’m writing, but I’d be willing to start Etienne if he plays, given the Browns’ run defense is bottom-five in rushing efficiency, success rate, and explosive run rate allowed.

Giants at Eagles (O/U 39.5, NYG -3.5)

Giants (21.5 Implied Points)

The Giants are coming off their bye and a surprise win over the Texans in Week 7.
Malik Nabers paced the team with nine targets and is the only must-start player on the team.
The sportsbooks clearly aren’t convinced that JJ McCarthy is suddenly good, given the team’s low implied points against a terrible Eagles team.
The explosives were great in Week 7, but the passing success rate was bad, which typically means the team’s efficiency will regress in future weeks.
But the Eagles are 26th in the league in explosive pass rate allowed, so it’s possible McCarthy gets away with it again in Week 9.
It’s a mess at RB; Cam Skattebo easily led the team in snaps and carries last week, but he hurt his hamstring and has already been called a potential game-time decision by John Harbaugh.
Tyrone Tracy landed on IR, so if the Giants don’t trade for an RB this week and Skattebo sits, it would be Devin Singletary’s backfield against an Eagles’ run defense that is bottom-four in efficiency and success rate allowed.

Eagles (18.0 Implied Points)

Please just sim to the end of this season.
I don’t know the status of DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks at the time I’m writing, but the Eagles have their bye week in Week 10, and there is no point in bringing anyone back quickly.
If both Smith and Wicks sit, then we’ll at least get volume from Makai Lemon, who paced the team with eight targets against the Commanders.
At RB, Elijah Mitchell led Saquon Barkley in snaps, 39 to 22, though Barkley took more carries as he saw a carry on 13 of his limited number of snaps.
It will continue to be tough to trust Barkley given his back and hamstring injuries are clearly limiting his role and performance, but impossible to start another Eagles’ RB as long as he’s active.
What a mess.

Raiders at 49ers (O/U 51.5, SF -10.0)

Raiders (20.75 Implied Points)

The Raiders were fantastic at passing the ball last week, hitting 98th percentile efficiency mostly thanks to Brock Bowers, who earned 10 of the team’s 24 targets; Bowers is the only must-start player on the team.
The big story last week was at RB as Mike Washington took 25 carries to Ashton Jeanty’s two, though Jeanty did run 15 routes to Washington’s seven.
I’d check in with the Jeanty manager in your league to see if they believe that this is the exact split going forward because I personally do not.
The Raiders have been awful running the ball this year; they’re 30th in efficiency, 30th in explosive rate, and dead-last in success rate.
Jeanty personally has been terrible; he’s RB33 in rushing yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt, RB36 in success rate, and RB31 in yards after contact per attempt.
But it’s not like Washington has been fantastic, and he’s even worse than Jeanty in success rate.
The decision on Washington then is: if the Raiders can’t be successful with either RB, then at least get the occasional Washington explosive.
But Jeanty’s somehow been better than Washington near the goal line, and he’s a fantastic receiver; he’s RB7 in yards per route run and RB9 in targets per route run among backs with at least four games played.
The goal-line and receiving work put Jeanty up at RB9 in expected fantasy points per game, and he’s underperformed that at the 12th-highest rate among qualifying RBs.
But I think we see a healthy dose of Jeanty receiving this week against the league’s most efficient run defense as 10-point underdogs.

49ers (30.75 Implied Points)

Now we’re cooking with nearly 31 implied points.
The 49ers are coming off their bye and a loss to the Falcons, mostly caused by turnovers.
They now get a Raiders’ defense that is 25th in overall efficiency and 30th in success rate allowed; hence the implied points.
Without Mike Evans, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey dominated the targets with 10 and seven, respectively; both are must-starts.
I don’t know Mike Evans’ status at the time I’m writing, but my expectation is that he plays, and he is a must-start assuming that’s the case.
McCaffrey actually had five fewer carries than Kaelon Black, but mostly because of a thigh injury that limited him; he did return for the 2nd half and ultimately ran 10 more routes than Black.

Texans at Chargers (O/U 40.5, HOU -4.5)

Texans (22.5 Implied Points)

The Texans are coming off their bye and a bad loss to the JJ McCarthy Giants.
Xavier Hutchinson somehow tied for the team lead in targets with six despite only running 15 routes; it’s safe to assume Hutchinson will not earn a target on 40% of his routes moving forward.
Dalton Schultz was the player who tied with Hutchinson, and then Nico Collins disappointed with only five targets.
Marvin Harrison Jr. earned four targets but only ran eight routes, so he needs to be left on the bench until his role solidifies.
I know it’s been three consecutive disappointing games for Collins, but he remains a must-start player, as I assume the Texans realized during their bye week that they should get their best player the ball more often.
At RB, Woody Marks had bell-cow usage, taking 54 of the team’s 61 snaps, running half of the team’s routes, and taking every RB carry.
We got no update on David Montgomery’s groin injury even after the bye week, so that seems pretty bad for his availability.
The Texans are awful at running the ball, but the expected workload and the Chargers’ poor run defense make Marks an uninspiring start in my mind.

Chargers (18.0 Implied Points)

I think the answer to whom to start on the Chargers is no.
They managed only nine points last week, hitting 9th percentile passing and 6th percentile rushing efficiency.
Their 13.6% rushing success rate is one of the lowest marks I’ve seen in recent memory.
If I were going to start anyone on this team, it would be Ladd McConkey, as he led the team with five targets last week and turned that into a 4/86/0 line.
And one nice update for McConkey is that he ran 34 of the team’s 37 routes last week, which was a much higher route rate than we’ve seen recently due to injuries.
The Texans’ pass defense gives up the highest rate of explosive plays in the league.
But I don’t think the Chargers will be able to take advantage of it given they’re 30th in sack rate taken and the Texans’ are 5th in sack rate delivered.
It remains a mess at RB, as all three of Kimani Vidal, Keaton Mitchell, and Omarion Hampton saw between 18 and 28 of the team’s snaps last week.

Cardinals at Seahawks (O/U 41.5, SEA -10.5)

Cardinals (15.5 Implied Points)

Yikes on 15.5 implied points; that’s lower than the Ravens with Fagnano.
It’d be hard to sit article-favorite Michael Wilson after his 16-target game last week that resulted in an 8/111/1 line, a lot of which came with Gardner Minshew at QB.
And Wilson is delivering for fantasy managers while playing through two broken ribs.
And you’re starting Trey McBride every week, but we’ll need to temper our expectations given the 15.5 implied points.
I do think Minshew’s very low air yards per attempt benefits McBride the most in terms of volume.
At RB, the Cardinals clearly wanted to give Jeremiyah Love a lot of volume in Week 8, but then he suffered an ankle injury and is now on IR.
And then after Love got hurt, they clearly wanted to give Bam Knight a lot of volume, but then he also got injured and is in the concussion protocol.
So, Tyler Allgeier was clearly the 3rd choice but delivered perhaps the best game of his career, including nearly 200 all-purpose yards and two TDs on 16 opportunities.
Brutal matchups all around this week against an elite Seahawks’ defense, so I’d prefer to bench Allgeier, but you’re starting McBride definitively and then Wilson depending on your other options.

Seahawks (26.0 Implied Points)

The Seahawks uncharacteristically struggled passing against the Bears, managing only 33rd percentile efficiency.
They characteristically struggled to run the ball, hitting 32nd percentile efficiency and a terrible 17.6% success rate.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba still delivered 118 receiving yards and a TD; he’s only had fewer than 100 receiving yards in one game this season, and he’s the only must-start player on the Seahawks.
At RB, it was mostly a split between Jadarian Price and Zach Charbonnet, with both backs returning from injury in Week 8.
Price saw seven more snaps, six more routes, and four more carries than Charbonnet.
But George Holani also played 11 snaps as well.
Price didn’t do anything with the work, turning 10 carries and four targets into only 37 all-purpose yards, but given he’s slightly ahead of Charbonnet in workload and that the Seahawks are 10.5-point favorites, I’d be willing to play Price assuming the Seahawks don’t trade for an RB this week.

Packers at Patriots (O/U 46.5, NE -3.0)

Packers (21.75 Implied Points)

Even with the (hopefully temporary) return of Josh Jacobs, the Packers have continued to pass at a rate above expectation, hitting +6.7% PROE last week, and they’re up to 2nd on the season.
They were efficient passing again in Week 8, with their 69th percentile efficiency concentrated on Matthew Golden (12 targets), Christian Watson (10), and Tucker Kraft and Jacobs (six each).
No other Packer earned more than two targets, which makes this easy for our purposes.
You’re starting all of those players against an average Patriots’ pass defense.
Watson’s targets were all the more impressive given he went to the hospital with a chest injury in the 2nd quarter and managed to return to the field in the 3rd quarter.
The Pats are slightly below average in explosive pass rate allowed, and that’s where the Packers have been living this season.

Patriots (24.75 Implied Points)

The Patriots passed at a rate 11.7% below expectation in Week 8, their lowest mark of the season.
That led to only 18 team targets, or close to the amount that Michael Wilson got on his own.
Only Efton Chism saw more than three targets on the team with both AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs out.
I don’t know if Brown is going to play this week at the time I’m writing, and it’s a tough matchup if he does, as the Packers’ pass defense is 10th in efficiency, 13th in success rate, and 2nd in explosive play rate allowed.
But I’d still start him given the volume he’s seen in the rare games he’s played this season.
I don’t think Eli Raridon is startable yet, but he should be on your watchlist.
Hunter Henry injured his foot last week, and I don’t know his status at the time I’m writing, but if Henry’s injury is longer-term, Raridon would become the feature TE on the team.
He didn’t do much with the role in Week 8, but I believe in the talent and the offense.
Rhamondre Stevenson dominated the work with TreVeyon Henderson out last week, taking 19 of the 26 RB carries and running 19 routes to Corey Kiner’s two.
I think Stevenson is a start regardless of Henderson’s status this week, as he gets all the high-value touches in an offense expected to score almost 25 points.

Buccaneers at Bears (O/U 46.5, CHI -6.0)

Buccaneers (20.25 Implied Points)

This is now the 2nd consecutive Buccaneers game that I’ve asked you to throw out.
Take a look at the PROE by Week graph at the bottom of the article if you want a laugh; the Bucs’ -42.1% (!!!) is about 20% lower than any other team in any other week.
Bastards broke my graph.
I don’t know how you start a Bucs pass catcher after what we’ve seen recently, including zero team completions last week.
At RB, you’re starting Bucky Irving, who led the team with 27 carries last week, but the Bears’ run defense just limited the Seahawks to 32nd percentile efficiency and a terrible 17.6% success rate.

Bears (26.25 Implied Points)

This is the 2nd straight week the Bears will face an elite defense, but we should have more confidence they can deliver given they hit 61st percentile passing and 93rd percentile rushing efficiency against the Seahawks.
And it was another game where the targets funneled to the guys we think they should go to, with Luther Burden earning nine, Colston Loveland eight, and Rome Odunze six.
Burden and Loveland in particular have reached must-start status, while Odunze has underperformed relative to his expectation in a downfield role that is inherently more volatile than the roles of his teammates.
I don’t know Kyle Monangai’s status at the time I’m writing, but he’s missed four straight weeks with thumb and toe injuries and the Bears have their bye in Week 10; my assumption is that he sits once again this week.
D’Andre Swift is a start regardless, but we can expect his volume to be fantastic if Monangai sits, as Swift took 55 of the team’s 71 snaps in Week 8.
Tough matchups all around, but after the Seahawks’ performance, we can have more trust in the Bears delivering despite the Buccaneers’ strong defense.

Bills at Vikings (O/U 45.5, BUF -3.5)

Bills (24.5 Implied Points)

The Bills passed at a rate 3% below expectation last week and are now about average in PROE on the season.
My assumption is we see the most run-heavy version of the Bills since Week 3 as Vikings’ opponents opt to run on them at the highest rate in the league to avoid their blitzes.
That should provide a lot of volume for James Cook, with the Bills 4th in explosive run rate and the only weakness of this Vikings defense their explosive run rate allowed.
At pass catcher, DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid led the team in targets last week with seven and six, respectively.
Despite the Vikings’ league-best pass defense, I’d still start both Moore and Kincaid as we could still see Josh Allen pull some magic out of his hat.

Vikings (21.0 Implied Points)

The Vikings’ passing attack was just below average last week, hitting 46th percentile efficiency but a strong 51.4% success rate.
I know they’re getting a lot of flak, and I think deservedly so given their opponents have generally been terrible and they’re still not delivering, but I still think they haven’t been as bad as what I’ve been reading.
The biggest issue to me last week was their 14th percentile rushing efficiency.
Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison led the team with nine and eight targets, respectively, with Jefferson a must-start despite the poor box scores lately.
And Hockenson remains viable, catching four balls and a TD in consecutive weeks; he’s TE13 in expected points per game this season.
It’s a mess at RB as Aaron Jones, DeeJay Dallas, and Jordan Mason all saw between 15 and 21 snaps last week.
Jones and Mason split the early-down snaps, while Dallas got most of the 3rd-down snaps, according to PFF.
The Bills’ run defense is below average, but it’s tough to suggest any of these RBs given the workload split.