Hoopes There It Is: Week 6 Game Preview

Oct 08, 2025

Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

There have been 19 matchups in my home fantasy league where one manager’s skill players scored more touchdowns than the other manager. The TD leader won 18 of those matchups. Fantasy football can certainly feel like a TD-only game, which can be very frustrating given the fluky nature of TDs. But we still have some tools at our disposal. The first is team-level projections from the sportsbooks. It’s why I always include implied points by the team in my write-ups. But the graph below shows every team at once, along with their plays per game; our fantasy players ideally play on teams in the top-right corner.

The second tool is expected points. Expected points are basically a weighted-volume stat that includes where on the field our skill players are seeing their volume. If a player is seeing a lot of work near their opponent’s goal-line but hasn’t punched one in yet, we’d expect that to improve in the coming weeks. Below are the RBs and WRs with the biggest gaps in expected vs actual points so far this season. And I’ve filtered them only for players with at least 10 expected points per game.

In general, though, if TD luck is getting you down, focus on team projections and player volume characteristics, and then hope for sweet, sweet regression.

Eagles at Giants (Over/Under 42.5, PHI favored by 7.0 points)

Eagles (24.75 Implied Points)

• After much hand-wringing from me to pass the ball more often, the Eagles hit an 18.9% pass rate over expectation (PROE) in Week 5.
• That led to 34 targets compared to only 10 carries.
• And in return, they gave us a very low 38.1% success rate. Womp.
• The Eagles’ efficiency wasn’t quite as bad as their success rate, thanks to 47+ yard receptions to both Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith.
• The man versus zone splits for Jalen Hurts were jarring, as he hit 0.38 EPA per dropback facing man coverage but -0.31 facing zone.
• The difference hasn’t been quite that large all season, but Hurts has had an EPA per dropback advantage facing man through four games.
• And the Broncos called zone coverage on 13 consecutive Eagles’ dropbacks in the second half, allowing zero first downs, according to Deniz Selman.
• We’ll need offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo to scheme up zone answers for Hurts moving forward.
• Luckily, the Giants are closer to the bottom of the league in the use of zone coverage, according to SIS.
• And they’ve been middle-of-the-pack in defensive pass efficiency, though they have done well in limiting explosive plays.

Giants (17.75 Implied Points)

• The Giants hit only the 10th percentile offensive efficiency last week, largely due to their five turnovers.
• Interceptions aside, Jaxson Dart earned some value via rushing, but most of his pass value was through receiver yards after the catch.
• Both Wan’Dale Robinson and Theo Johnson earned seven targets, with Darius Slayton earning six and no one else exceeding four.
• I think Johnson is a viable TE in deep leagues given the targets and the hamstring injury to Slayton, potentially propelling him to the clear second option in this passing attack.
• Cam Skattebo once again dominated the RB touches, with 15 of the 21 carries and 29 of the 42 routes.
• It’s a tough matchup this week for the entire offense, as the Eagles’ defense is no worse than 13th against the pass and run.
• However, they are near the bottom of the league in rushing success rate, which is the best element of the Giants’ offense so far this year.

Broncos at Jets (O/U 43.5, DEN -7.5)

Broncos (25.5 Implied Points)

• Courtland Sutton remains the only Broncos’ pass catcher that you can trust.
• He earned 10 targets last week compared to five for both Marvin Mims and Evan Engram.
• But Mims played on only 27 of the Broncos’ 74 snaps, while Evan Engram played on 30 but was out-snapped by Adam Trautman.
• J.K. Dobbins continued to dominate the RB carries, taking 20 of the 24, but he only ran nine routes.
• We unfortunately got Tyler Badie back in our lives, taking 16 routes and limiting RJ Harvey to only 15 total snaps.
• Like always, we cannot trust that this will be the RB rotation we see going forward.
• The Jets have the least-efficient pass defense in the league and have given up the highest rate of explosive passes.
• But last week, Sauce Gardner did a fantastic job limiting the Cowboys’ WR1, George Pickens, while the WR2, Ryan Flournoy, flourished for 114 yards.
• If you feel confident that you know who that WR2 will be, they’re a fantastic start, with my guess being Troy Franklin.

Jets (18.0 Implied Points)

• Justin Fields had a massive number of dropbacks last week as the Jets played from behind, and he hit ok efficiency thanks to garbage time.
• The biggest news from last week was Mason Taylor leading the team in targets with 11, after earning seven in Week 4.
• My confidence in Taylor continues to grow, but seven of Taylor’s receptions came in basically the last third of the game, so we’ll need garbage time for him to hit.
• Isaiah Davis remains a key bench stash, as he’d be the clear starter if anything happened to Breece, and he’s already splitting the routes.
• It’s a brutal matchup this week against a Broncos’ defense that is 4th in efficiency and 1st in success rate.
• You’re starting Hall and Garrett Wilson, and I think Taylor isn’t the worst TE to play if you’re desperate at the position.

Cardinals at Colts (O/U 47.5, IND -6.5)

Cardinals (20.5 Implied Points)

• The big question for the Cardinals was what the RB split would be with both James Conner and Trey Benson sidelined?
• Well, the right answer seems to be Michael Carter, who took 17 of the 24 RB carries and ran 18 of the 33 routes.
• Carter took the Conner/Benson role, while Emari Demercado kept his 3rd-down and 2-minute-drill role, and Bam Knight was basically Carter’s backup.
• The ground game only combined for 13th-percentile efficiency, though, with a Kyler fumble and a bad touchdown-turned-touchback by Demercado.
• The Cardinals’ passing game has no real juice, as they’re 31st in both air yards per attempt and explosive plays.
• They’re building the plane out of short, touchdown-less targets to Trey McBride.
• And now they’re facing a Colts’ defense that already does a fantastic job in keeping passes short and limiting explosives.

Colts (27.0 Implied Points)

• The Colts’ offense kept the train going, hitting 85th-percentile passing and 93rd-percentile rushing efficiency last week.
• Josh Downs actually led the team in targets with seven despite remaining out of 2-WR sets.
• Ashton Dulin took the Alec Pierce snaps from Adonai Mitchell after his touchdown-turned-touchback in Week 4.
• Jonathan Taylor continues his 2024-Saquon-Barkley-esque season, dominating both the RB carries and routes.
• All of the starters actually sat for the last few snaps of the game in a blowout win.
• The Cardinals’ defense is pretty good overall, with average defensive pass efficiency, but they’re elite against the run.
• I don’t foresee it being a huge problem for Taylor, though, especially with their 11.5% explosive run rate.

Cowboys at Panthers (O/U 49.5, DAL -3.5)

Cowboys (26.5 Implied Points)

• I’ll give a lot of excuses for offensive line injuries this week (especially for the Chargers), but the Cowboys have been hit harder than anyone and delivered 89th-percentile passing and 97th-percentile rushing efficiency anyway.
• With Sauce Gardner guarding George Pickens, it was Ryan Flournoy who did a lot of damage, turning eight targets into 114 yards.
• I wouldn’t chase Flournoy moving forward, as he could fall back down the depth chart when KaVontae Turpin and Jonathan Mingo return.
• Jake Ferguson has a solid lead as the TE1 overall and remains a must-start, earning another nine targets last week.
• He’s one of only two TEs in the league with 10+ expected half-PPR points per game; Trey McBride is the other.
• Javonte Williams is similarly a must-start, dominating the RB carries and routes, with Jaydon Blue active but only getting 11 snaps.
• It’s a fantastic matchup for the Cowboys this week as well, with the Panthers’ 22nd-ranked defense still overstated by their dominant win over the Falcons earlier in the season.

Panthers (23.0 Implied Points)

• The Panthers snuck out a win against the Dolphins last week despite going -10% PROE.
• And that actually made sense for them, as they hit 99th-percentile rushing efficiency thanks to Rico Dowdle going for over 200 yards.
• Tetairoa McMillan earned eight targets last week; the only player who earned more than three.
• He’s the only receiver worth playing, with the hope that Jalen Coker is also usable in the short areas of the field once he’s back from IR.
• Dowdle dominated the RB work, taking 23 of the 27 carries and running 18 of the 35 routes.
• McMillan and Dowdle are both very strong plays against the least-efficient defense in the league.

Browns at Steelers (O/U 37.5, PIT -4.5)

Browns (16.5 Implied Points)

• The Browns went very run-heavy last week, hitting -10.6% PROE.
• And that made sense, given it was both Dillon Gabriel’s first start and Quinshon Judkins was playing very well.
• They ultimately kept the game close with turnovers and special teams/penalty advantages, but Gabriel’s -0.09 EPA per play and -6.8% CPOE were too much to overcome.
• David Njoku and Harold Fannin were both top-three in targets on the team, as the Browns already led the league in 2-TE dropback rate coming into the week and pushed it further.
• The bad news for Fannin is that Njoku is back to being consistently on the field in 1-TE sets.
• Judkins dominated the carries but only ran five routes.
• He’s an extremely efficient runner, but my concerns remain about his lack of high-value receiving work and goal-line attempts on one of the worst offenses in the league.

Steelers (21.0 Implied Points)

• The Steelers remain the manager in your home league that is 3-1 despite never scoring any points and just getting lucky with their opponents.
• They’ve actually been outscored on the season by two points.
• Aaron Rodgers hit 200 yards passing in Week 4, but only because DK Metcalf took a short route 80 yards for a touchdown.
• Barring that happening again, there is simply no juice on this offense, as they’re 31st in plays per game and dead-last in air yards per pass attempt.
• I’m most curious to see the RB split if Jaylen Warren is healthy, given that Kenneth Gainwell played really well in Warren’s absence.
• It’s a terrible matchup for both of them, though, as the Browns are top-four in defensive rushing efficiency, success rate, and explosive run rate.

Chargers at Dolphins (O/U 44.5, LAC -4.5)

Chargers (24.5 Implied Points)

• The target shares of the three relevant WRs flipped last week, with Keenan Allen leading the way with nine, Ladd McConkey earning six, and Quentin Johnston dropping down to four.
• Omarion Hampton also earned six targets and dominated the RB work being leaving with an ankle injury and subsequently being placed on IR.
• My assumption is that Hassan Haskins is the guy you want in this backfield, but that Kimani Vidal will also be involved, and the Chargers just signed Nyheim Hines to their practice squad.
• Week 5 was rough from an efficiency standpoint for this passing game, with a 13th-percentile performance dropping the Chargers’ pass EPA per play down to 24th in the league.
• They ended last week’s game with six consecutive scoreless drives.
• It’s a fantastic bounce-back spot for everyone on this offense, though, as the Dolphins’ defense is bottom-three in pass efficiency, pass success rate, CPOE, rush efficiency, rush success rate, and explosive run rate.

Dolphins (20.0 Implied Points)

• The Dolphins RBs totaled 14 yards on 13 carries last week.
• The ground game ultimately hit 6th percentile efficiency with -0.44 EPA per run.
• And the Dolphins went very pass-heavy, hitting 9.8% PROE with 73rd-percentile passing efficiency.
• Tua Tagovailoa’s average target depth was higher than usual, and he hit an impressive 14.8% CPOE.
• I guess this Darren Waller stuff is real, as his snaps doubled from the previous week and he ran 27 of the 40 routes.
• Meanwhile, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ran 29 routes but earned zero targets.
• You’re starting both Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane despite the tough matchup.
• And you’re probably starting Darren Waller as well, depending on your options, despite him being the most obvious regression candidate we have at TE, given he has 3 touchdowns on only nine targets.

Rams at Ravens (O/U 44.5, LAR -7.5)

Rams (26.0 Implied Points)

• The Rams went very pass-heavy last week, hitting 10.6% PROE and 84th-percentile passing efficiency.
• But they had two big fumbles that tanked their rushing efficiency all the way down to the 2nd percentile.
• Kyren Williams’ fumble came so late in the game that it couldn’t really hurt his playing time, and Blake Corum saw his lowest snap rate of the season.
• The Rams get a fantastic matchup against the 30th-ranked Ravens defense, suffering from an unholy number of injuries.
• The Texans in Week 5 hit the best overall and passing success rates of any team this season against this Ravens defense.

Ravens (18.5 Implied Points)

• The Ravens turned extremely run-heavy without Lamar Jackson, hitting -15.6% PROE in Week 5.
• That led to only 19 total targets in the game, with Zay Flowers earning five, Mark Andrews three, and no one else exceeding two.
• Derrick Henry had 15 of the 19 RB carries but split the routes with Justice Hill.
• Much was made of Keaton Mitchell being active on gameday, but he was only given four snaps.
• Andrews’ playing time continues to disappoint, as he ran only 14 routes compared to Isaiah Likely’s 11.
• Once again, the only thing that really matters for this offense is whether Lamar Jackson can suit up.

49ers at Buccaneers (O/U 47.5, TB -3)

49ers (22.25 Implied Points)

• The 49ers went with their most pass-heavy approach of the season without their starting QB and their top-four non-Christian-McCaffrey skill players.
• And they hit 77th percentile passing efficiency on a massive 83 plays against the Rams.
• Most of Mac Jones’ value came from receiver YAC as he had a very low 5.9-yard average target depth.
• Most of the game felt like that Breaking Bad meme of Bryan Cranston yelling from inside a car, “Chris Shula, they’re only passing short!”.
• It’s a great matchup for whichever receivers are healthy, as the Buccaneers are 26th in passing efficiency but have the best run defense in the league.

Buccaneers (25.25 Implied Points)

• Emeka Egbuka continues to deliver splash plays down the field, earning seven targets last week and representing a huge reason as to why the Buccaneers are top four in explosive pass rate.
• Chris Godwin disappointingly only earned four targets last week after hitting 10 in his first game back from injury.
• I’d assume better days are ahead, especially while Mike Evans is out.
• Rachaad White dominated the RB work, taking 14 of the 17 carries and running 25 of the 32 routes.
• The 49ers are another tough defensive opponent versus the run, but they are more susceptible through the air, which is mostly what we care about for White in fantasy anyway.

Seahawks at Jaguars (O/U 46.5, SEA -1.5)

Seahawks (24.0 Implied Points)

• The Seahawks once again delivered a massively-efficient passing attack, hitting 96th-percentile efficiency in Week 5.
• They’re now 2nd in efficiency, 1st in success rate, 1st in explosive pass rate, and 1st in completion percentage over expectation.
• But they pass at the lowest rate in the league relative to expectation, with a 26th-ranked rushing attack.
• Three players dominated the targets, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, and, surprisingly, AJ Barner each earning seven or more.
• The snaps have been there for Barner, but the target earning wasn’t until this one.
• Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker annoyingly split the carries, with Charbonnet even more annoyingly leading in routes 19 to 10.
• The Jaguars’ defense has the most extreme splits in the league, as they’re 3rd in pass efficiency but 22nd in success rate allowed.
• If the Seahawks can avoid wild interceptions and fumbles, they should be able to once again deliver a very efficient day on likely low volume.

Jaguars (22.5 Implied Points)

• Brian Thomas Jr. set a season-high 80 receiving yards versus the Chiefs, but he actually tied for his season-low in targets and has yet to score a receiving TD.
• He remains a perma-buy-low target like Chris Olave.
• There was good news for Travis Hunter in this one, as he actually got some work in 2-WR sets for the first time all season.
• Travis Etienne once again dominated the RB carries and took about half of the routes, with Bhayshul Tuten only given 12 snaps.
• The Jaguars’ offense is about average in all aspects through the first five weeks of the season.
• Alternatively, the Seahawks’ defense is much stronger against the run than the pass.
• With the Jags already 9th in pass rate over expectation, I’d expect them to attack more through the air in this one, with BTJ getting his first receiving TD of the season (c’mon, please).

Titans at Raiders (O/U 41.5, LV -4.5)

Titans (18.5 Implied Points)

• We got a dead-cat bounce from Calvin Ridley last week, earning 10 targets from fantasy waiver wires everywhere.
• He’s regretfully worth picking back up after this performance, where he doubled the targets of any other Titans’ receiver.
• Tony Pollard took 14 of the 19 RB carries and ran 29 of the 40 routes.
• And that sounds like a lot, because it is, but his fantasy value is almost entirely dependent on completely dominating the work.
• Any Tyjae Spears involvement is trouble for an RB on the worst offense in the league, with Pollard hitting a season-low 73.1% snap rate last week.
• Last week was the best game of Cam Ward’s career, hitting positive EPA per play despite -9.6% CPOE.
• And he’s got a good matchup this week against the 5th-worst pass defense in the league.

Raiders (23.0 Implied Points)

• Geno Smith’s completion rate hit expectation last week.
• So, his 16th-percentile passing efficiency was hurt almost exclusively by interceptions and sacks.
• The targets were really spread around, with five different players earning five or more targets.
• Ashton Jeanty took 14 of the 21 RB carries and was in a route split with Raheem Mostert.
• But those numbers overstate Mostert’s involvement because he only played at the end of a blowout loss, with Jeanty playing 28 of the first 29 snaps, according to PFF.
• The Raiders continue to be an extremely volatile team, struggling with down-to-down consistency and living exclusively off of explosive plays to generate points.

Bengals at Packers (O/U 44.5, GB -14.5)

Bengals (15.0 Implied Points)

• 15 implied points is…low.
• We don’t know who the Bengals’ starting QB will be at the time I’m writing.
• Jake Browning lost a massive amount of EPA from interceptions last week, and the Bengals did just trade for Joe Flacco, so my assumption is it’ll be Flacco stepping in straight away.
• Ja’Marr Chase ultimately got there in fantasy, but it took two garbage time TDs in the 4th quarter.
• Chase Brown took eight of the 12 RB carries but split the routes evenly with Samaje Perine.
• However, Brown earned an insane eight targets on his 21 routes.
• You’re still starting Ja’Marr Chase because he’s one of the most talented WRs in the league that can overcome his circumstances, but I’d at least be willing to bench any other Bengals player against one of the best defenses in the league.

Packers (29.5 Implied Points)

• Josh Jacobs absolutely crushed in fantasy back in Week 4, earning two TDs on the ground to go along with 71 receiving yards.
• The receptions were spread around the skill players like usual, despite Romeo Doubs popping up with a massive three-TD day.
• It’s another fantastic matchup for the Packers’ offense this week, with nearly 30 implied points against one of the worst defenses in the league and an opposing offense that cannot sustain drives.
• Jacobs and Tucker Kraft are must-starts, while I’d also be willing to start Doubs and Matthew Golden given the matchup.

Patriots at Saints (O/U 45.5, NE -3.5)

Patriots (24.5 Implied Points)

• Stefon Diggs looked like a man possessed against his former team, earning 12 targets with no other skill player exceeding four.
• And he helped Drake Maye continue his breakout season, with Maye hitting 0.28 EPA per play last week and ranking among the top-five QBs in efficiency for the season.
• The RB carries were ultimately split between Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson, and Antonio Gibson, but Gibson went down with a season-ending knee injury.
• And Stevenson fumbled again in this one.
• I think punishing RBs for fumbling is absolutely insane; we don’t bench QBs every time they throw an interception.
• But in this case, if it will help Henderson see the field more, then Stevenson should be banned from football.
• In the meantime, though, Diggs is the only must-start skill player on the offense.

Saints (21.0 Implied Points)

• The Saints got their first win of the season last week, hitting 89th-percentile pass efficiency in the process.
• Now, a lot of that was from one, 87-yard TD to Rashid Shaheed, but Spencer Rattler also avoided all negatives with zero interceptions, sacks, or fumbles.
• Chris Olave earned double-digit targets for the fourth time in five games, remaining a perma-buy-low candidate with only one touchdown on the year.
• As predicted last week, Kendre Miller’s workload continues to expand, out-carrying Alvin Kamara 10 to eight but running 10 fewer routes.
• It was still enough for Kamara’s snap rate to hit a season-low.
• It’s a good matchup for Rattler and the pass game, as the Patriots’ defense is 27th against the pass but 4th against the run.
• Olave remains a start in full-PPR leagues with the hope that he ever gets into the endzone again this season.

Lions at Chiefs (O/U 51.5, KC -2.5)

Lions (24.5 Implied Points)

• The Lions have an extremely efficient passing offense, but choose to lean on the run at the 2nd-highest rate versus expectation in the league.
• That resulted in only 23 total targets last week, with nine going to Amon-Ra St. Brown, six to Sam LaPorta, and no one else earning more than three.
• David Montgomery led the backfield with 18 carries to Jahmyr Gibbs’ 12 and 14 routes to Gibbs’ seven.
• But that really was the result of the game script, with Montgomery playing a lot more once the Lions were up by 28 points.
• Well, the expectation is the Lions will be in a competitive game with the Chiefs this week, and the Chiefs have the 3rd-least efficient run defense in the league.
• I’d expect a much stronger box score for Gibbs in this one.

Chiefs (27.0 Implied Points)

• The Chiefs should be motivated this week after a brutal loss to a Jaguars team that they really should’ve beaten.
• Their 99-yard pick-six was the most negative play for any team this season, lowering the Chiefs’ win probability by 42% in the process.
• Three players dominated the targets, with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Travis Kelce each earning eight or more targets.
• Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt split the carries evenly, but Pacheco dominated the routes 28 to 8.
• Pacheco’s snap lead didn’t matter in fantasy, though, as Hunt cashed in two touchdowns.
• Brashard Smith was only given six snaps, which was even lower than the week before despite the coach speak talking him up.
• The Chiefs go with the opposite approach of the Lions, passing at the highest rate in the league relative to expectation.
• And the Lions’ defense is very good, but opponents have attacked them with the highest average target depth in the league.
• Expect some deep shots to Worthy and Tyquan Thornton in this one.

Bills at Falcons (O/U 48.5, BUF -4.5)

Bills (26.5 Implied Points)

• The Bills love to rotate their receivers, with no one player exceeding 30 of the 40 total routes last week.
• Dalton Kincaid continues to get home in fantasy, though, mostly through TDs, despite running only 60% of the routes.
• Khalil Shakir hit his second, nine-target game of the season, with his target volume directly connected to whether the Bills are in a competitive game or not.
• James Cook continues to dominate the RB work, taking 15 of the 19 RB carries and running 25 routes.
• The Falcons’ defense has been good overall this season, and with the sportsbooks expecting this game to be relatively close, I’d be willing to start Shakir in the hopes the Bills are pushed a bit.

Falcons (22.0 Implied Points)

• The Bills are the most run-funnel defense in the league, with opponents opting to run on the Bills at the highest rate relative to expectation.
• And that’s because the Bills are 11th in defensive pass efficiency but 26th against the run.
• The 18.3% explosive run rate allowed by the Bills is insanely high.
• Well, you don’t have to ask the Falcons to run the ball, as they have the 3rd-lowest PROE in the league and the 7th-highest explosive run rate.
• I’d imagine we see a healthy dose of Bijan Robinson in this one.

Bears at Commanders (O/U 50.5, WAS -4.5)

Bears (23.0 Implied Points)

• The Bears’ offense is like a slightly less-chaotic version of the Raiders’, as they struggle with success rate and live off of explosive pass attempts.
• Well, the Commanders defense has been susceptible to explosive pass plays so far this season, with opponents opting for the 4th-highest average target depth against them.
• The Commanders’ defense has been above-average against the run, while the Bears’ offense has been dreadful running the ball.
• In a game where the Bears will have to keep pace with Jayden Daniels, I think we will see a healthy dose of deep pass attempts to Rome Odunze.

Commanders (27.5 Implied Points)

• Similar to what we saw in New England last week, Deebo Samuel earned 11 targets in Week 5, with the next closest skill player earning two.
• We got some good news for Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt managers last week, as Bill took 14 of the 20 RB carries.
• He previously didn’t start his day until the 3rd drive of the game, but that changed last week as he played on early downs in the first two drives, according to PFF.
• Bill still split the routes with Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez, but it’s a start.
• Samuel is a must-start, with Bill now in consideration with the hope that his route rate continues to increase.