Fantasy Football Week 8 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Every Game Previewed | Hoopes There It Is

Oct 28, 2026

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Welcome to another edition of Hoopes There It Is! We’re previewing every game in Week 8, highlighting advanced stats like EPA, success rate, pass rate over expected (PROE), and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) to help make the best decisions for your fantasy teams. I’ll provide a quick start/sit section at the top that stems from the longer write-ups. And if you’re interested in more, which I hope you are, you can jump to any of the 14 games this week. Let’s get started!

Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Michael Wilson (Start): Michael Wilson has yet to beat the ‘MHJ merchant’ allegations. His target share has dipped since Marvin Harrison Jr was shipped off to Houston, potentially because he’s competing against players that are better at earning targets than MHJ. But also because his route tree has skewed in a less fantasy friendly direction with MHJ in Houston. This is a get-right spot for Wilson, though. The Cowboys’ pass defense is horrible, ranking in the bottom seven of every stat I track. The Cardinals are in the ‘great matchup’ quadrant of the matchup graph at the end of the article for a reason.

AJ Brown (Start): I’m going back to the well on this one. AJ Brown was second on the Patriots in targets with six last week. He just didn’t do much with them, finishing the day with a 3/48/0 line. Similar to Michael Wilson, this is a get-right spot for Brown. The Dolphins’ pass defense is even worse than the Cowboys’, as they’re dead-last in efficiency, success rate, and CPOE allowed. I’m starting Brown, albeit with less confidence than last week. If he duds again against the Dolphins, I’ll capitulate on this one.

TJ Hockenson (Start): I know 16 points won’t cut it, but the Vikings’ passing offense was average from an efficiency standpoint in Week 7. They’ve been shit on a lot since the game, but the big issue in my view is that they just didn’t have a lot of volume with only 23 team targets. TJ Hockenson is tied for TE13 in expected fantasy points per game, and he’s exceeding that mark by about 1.5 points because he’s almost at 2.0 yards per route run. And now Hock gets a Lions’ pass defense that has been terrible this season, ranking in the bottom six of every stat I track except for sack rate. In addition to that, the Lions’ defense has allowed the most plays against them in the entire league.

Kyle Pitts (Sit): Kyle Pitts is TE28 in expected fantasy points per game. But I don’t want to ding him too much for the Cooper Rush offense in the beginning of the season. He’s had at least five targets in the last three games and has scored in each contest. That’s downright fantastic for a fantasy TE. But this Buccaneers’ defense is no joke, ranking in the top 10 in most of the stats that I track. And Pitts is getting the Dalton Kincaid treatment, seeing only 63% of the routes last week as both Austin Hooper and Nick Muse were involved. Is Pitts scoring for the 4th week in a row?

All Dolphins WRs and TEs (Sit): The Dolphins were awesome passing last week, hitting 98th percentile efficiency and a 62.1% success rate. That was their highest EPA per dropback in a game over the last two years, according to Sumer Sports. The issue is that the team’s insanely low volume means we need this level of efficiency for the Dolphins’ pass catchers to get home in fantasy. Both Greg Dulcich and Caleb Douglas had great games, but they did so on only five and three targets, respectively. I’m just not banking on this efficiency to continue, but I think it’s a lock that the low volume continues.

Xavier Worthy (Sit): I don’t know Rashee Rice’s status at the time I’m writing, but I’d want to sit Xavier Worthy even if he’s out. The Chiefs are coming off a game where they scored three points and now face a Broncos pass defense that is top five in efficiency, success rate, and CPOE allowed. Worthy is down to WR41 in expected fantasy points, and he’s underperforming that by about one point per game. I’m looking for options with higher ceilings than Worthy this week.

Panthers at Packers (O/U 47.5, GB -3.5)

Panthers (22.0 Implied Points)

It was a day to forget for the Panthers against the Buccaneers, as they finished the day with 6th percentile passing efficiency because Bryce Young completed about half of his attempts and threw two interceptions in the process.
On the season, the Panthers’ passing attack is almost exactly average, which is still stronger than we expected coming into the season.
Of the team’s 27 targets, six went to Tetairoa McMillan and only three to Jalen Coker; I still think Coker is a weekly starter, as WRs in his range put up bad games all the time.
Darren Waller actually led the team in receiving yards, but he did so on one target and can’t be considered in starting lineups.
Chuba Hubbard was subbed out for Trevor Etienne more often in Week 7, but that was mostly game script related as Etienne played eight of his 17 snaps in garbage time, according to PFF.
So, in addition to TMac and Coker, Hubbard’s workload in non-blowouts makes him a strong start, with the Packers’ defense giving up successful runs at the 4th-highest rate in the league.

Packers (25.5 Implied Points)

There was some concern that the Packers would take their foot off the PROE pedal with Josh Jacobs coming off the Commissioner Exempt List, but that didn’t happen in Week 7.
They went +6.4% last week, and they’re up to 2nd in PROE for the season.
And while they hit 61st percentile passing efficiency in Week 7, they had a bad 35.4% success rate, which has been the story of their season.
They’re living off explosives and air yards rather than successful down-to-down passes.
But we’ll live with that in fantasy as both Matthew Golden and Christian Watson are top-12 in expected fantasy points per game at WR thanks to concentrated air yards.
They paced the team again in Week 7, with Golden earning 12 targets and Watson eight, but we’ll need to monitor Golden’s injury status as he didn’t practice on Monday or Tuesday due to shoulder and foot injuries.
In addition to the two WRs, I’d start both Tucker Kraft and Josh Jacobs, who each earned six targets last week.
It’s obviously a small sample, but Jacobs is now RB7 in expected fantasy points per game at RB, mostly because of those targets combined with a goal-line rushing attempt.
Jacobs played just over 50% of the offensive snaps, but he was given high-value touches and now plays a Panthers’ run defense that was demolished by the Buccaneers.
The Panthers’ run defense is third-worst in rushing efficiency and fourth-worst in explosive run rate allowed.

Colts at Jaguars (O/U 46.5, JAX -7.5)

Colts (19.5 Implied Points)

You know things are going poorly when your head coach has to reiterate that the starting QB is still the starter in consecutive weeks.
It seemed like the Colts admitted they can’t pass the ball after going back to the Cretaceous period with a -19.6% PROE (somehow not the lowest on the week, as the Buccaneers hit -27.8%).
Even with just 19 team targets, they only managed 12th percentile passing efficiency, and no player earned more than three targets.
No receiver can provide anything for us in fantasy given this environment.
The hope is that Jonathan Taylor gets traded, but if he doesn’t, we’re seeing Seth McGowan getting involved more often.
Week 7 was a new career high for McGowan in carries, and he played half of Taylor’s number of snaps over the first three quarters.
And you’re still starting Taylor, but this Jaguars’ run defense is top four in every stat I track, and opponents opt to pass on the Jags at the 7th-highest rate vs expectation.
The most actionable thing on the Colts is to add and roster McGowan at least through the NFL’s trade deadline on 11/10, as the Colts just traded away their star guard Quentin Nelson.

Jaguars (27.0 Implied Points)

The Jaguars are coming off their bye but lost a close game to the Texans in Week 6.
They had a very high 41 team targets, which were dominated by Parker Washington (11), Jakobi Meyers (10), and Brenton Strange (seven).
Washington is a must-start, while Meyers is a low-end WR4 in expected points per game and Strange is TE12 overall, so both are option and league-dependent plays.
Brian Thomas Jr. only ran 13 of the team’s 44 routes in Week 7, or six fewer than Josh Cameron; I’d be surprised if Thomas is still on the team after the trade deadline.
At RB, Bhayshul Tuten is still the RB you want, mostly because he ran 25 routes to Chris Rodriguez’s six, but they split the carries in Week 6 as Rodriguez had by far his most efficient game as a runner.
Fantasy managers aren’t complaining about Tuten, though, as he scored two receiving TDs and is a must-start given the Jags’ 27 implied points.

Ravens at Bills (O/U 53.5, BUF -3.5)

Ravens (25.0 Implied Points)

This one should be fun, especially because the third time’s the charm on me saying Lamar Jackson is playing this week.
You’re starting Jackson if he’s available, and you’re starting Derrick Henry despite a bad string of games lately, including a nasty 23.1% rushing success rate for the Ravens in Week 7.
But I’m most excited about Zay Flowers this week.
Flowers has put up some silly numbers on frustratingly small samples this year.
According to Sumer Sports, Flowers has the most 110+ receiving-yard 1st halves in a season since 2016 (yes, it’s only Week 8).
According to JJ Zachariason, on the 45 routes Flowers has run with Jackson at QB, he has an otherworldly 7.84 YPRR (anything over 3.0 is insane).
I’m looking forward to a full game of Flowers with Jackson against a Bills’ pass defense that is bottom-five in efficiency, success rate, and explosive play rate allowed.
Mark Andrews ran 28 of the team’s 40 routes in Week 7, which is ok, but he only earned four targets, one more than Josh Cuevas, who only saw eight routes.

Bills (28.5 Implied Points)

When breaking ties, break them toward Bills’ players given the nearly 29 implied points.
The Bills are coming off their bye and before that, a surprisingly close win against the Raiders.
DJ Moore didn’t play in that game with a shoulder injury, and while I don’t have updated information at the time I’m writing, my assumption is that Moore will play in Week 8, and I’d start him.
Without Moore in Week 6, it was nice to see Dalton Kincaid lead the team with eight targets, even if we’d like to see his 63% route rate bump a little higher.
After Kincaid, Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir tied with six targets each, with both potential options given the projected game script and the Ravens’ average pass defense.
And then James Cook is a must-start, as he took 22 of the 24 RB carries in Week 6 and ran half of the team’s routes.

Titans at Bengals (O/U 46.5, CIN -10.0)

Titans (18.25 Implied Points)

While the Titans lost in Week 7, the story of the game was Tony Pollard’s three-TD performance.
It’s going to be very difficult, maybe impossible to bench him this week given the game he had, but he’s played seven games and failed to score in five of them given the state of the Titans’ offense.
Carnell Tate’s peripherals continue to be awesome, and he once again led the team with seven targets, or 25% of the team’s looks.
But similar to Pollard, Tate’s only scored in one game this season.
I do think the Bengals’ pass defense is a bit fraudulent, as they’re giving up a very high success rate and allowing opponents to throw deep on them; they’re getting by on turnovers and sacks.

Bengals (28.25 Implied Points)

The Bengals are 1st in PROE after hitting a massive +13.3% in Week 7; their commitment to the pass is rare in the current version of the NFL.
They were rewarded with 97th percentile passing efficiency and a fantastic 64.7% success rate.
Almost all of that came in the 2nd half of Week 7, when Joe Burrow went 16/18 for 249 yards and four TDs.
Burrow’s total EPA in the 2nd half was the 4th best for any QB since 2022, according to Sumer Sports.
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins led the team with seven targets each and are must-starts every week.
And Chase Brown is still a start even if he hasn’t scored a TD since Week 1; because of that, and his general inefficiency, he’s RB14 in expected points but has underperformed that by a whopping 3.5 points per game.
But Brown still dominated Samaje Perine in workload, taking 40 snaps to Perine’s 12, running 14 more routes, and taking seven more carries in the process.
But one of Perine’s four carries was the lone rushing TD for the Bengals.

Browns at Steelers (O/U 39.5, PIT -3.5)

Browns (18.0 Implied Points)

The sportsbooks continue to think the Browns’ success is fraudulent given their 18 implied points this week.
Watson is 24th in EPA per play this season but 1st in the last two minutes of each half, according to Sumer Sports, and I think that will regress as the season continues.
The Browns’ passing attack was about average in Week 7, but they hit 97th percentile rushing efficiency on a very strong 55.2% success rate.
The targets were concentrated on three players, with KC Concepcion breaking out on 10 targets, Denzel Boston underperforming on nine targets, and Harold Fannin pleasantly surprising fantasy managers with seven targets.
I’d start Concepcion after his Week 7 performance, but I’d prefer to sit both Boston and Fannin depending on my other options.
Boston has a fantastic 45% team air yards share, but only 41% of his air yards have been catchable thanks to Deshaun Watson at QB.
And Fannin is TE13 in expected points, so in the startable range, but he’s on a team with 18 implied points going against a Steelers pass defense that is 8th in efficiency allowed.
On the ground, Quinshon Judkins split the snaps with Dylan Sampson, running seven fewer routes but taking 17 carries to Sampson’s six.
But Judkins had his best game of the season, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, the first time he exceeded 4.0 yards since Week 5 of last season, according to JJ Zachariason.
It will be tough to bench Judkins after his two-TD game, but I’m still very concerned about his high-value touches given the team’s implied points and his limited receiving role with Sampson back in the fold.

Steelers (21.5 Implied Points)

The Steelers are down to 4th in PROE after passing at a rate 4.6% below expectation in Week 7, by far their lowest rate this season.
That’s really annoying because Aaron Rodgers has been bad and has stopped throwing deep, so what’s been buoying the value of DK Metcalf and Germie Bernard is volume.
Metcalf and Rico Dowdle actually tied for the team lead with six targets last week, followed by five for Bernard.
It’s a tough matchup against a very good Browns’ pass defense that opponents opt to run on at a top-10 clip, so both Metcalf and Bernard are not must-starts if we have some concerns about passing volume.
The only must-start on the Steelers is Jaylen Warren, who annoyingly ran two fewer routes than Dowdle last week but did take 18 carries to Dowdle’s nine.
Warren is the first RB with 550+ rushing yards and 250+ receiving yards over the first seven games of a season since Christian McCaffrey in 2019, according to Sumer Sports.
And Warren now gets a Browns’ run defense that is dead-last in explosive play rate allowed.

Vikings at Lions (O/U 46.5, DET -3.0)

Vikings (21.75 Implied Points)

I know 16 points won’t cut it, but the Vikings’ passing offense was average from an efficiency standpoint in Week 7; they just didn’t have a lot of volume with only 23 team targets.
You’re starting Justin Jefferson every week, and he led the team with six targets last week, but I think TJ Hockenson can also be started.
Hockenson is tied for TE13 in expected fantasy points per game, and he’s exceeding that mark by about 1.5 points because he’s almost at 2.0 yards per route run.
And this Lions’ pass defense has been terrible this season, ranking in the bottom six of every stat I track except for sack rate.
Jordan Mason dominated the RB work in his return, but that was skewed by Aaron Jones suffering a knee injury that cost him basically every snap after the 4th drive.
Mason is a very strong start if Jones misses Week 8, as the Lions’ run defense is good at limiting successful runs but is prone to explosives.

Lions (24.75 Implied Points)

It’s a low implied point number for the Lions this week, as they’ve scored more than this in five of their six games this season.
And the reason is the matchup, as the Vikings’ defense is best in the league in efficiency and success rate allowed for both passing and rushing.
The Lions are coming off a poor 7th percentile rushing performance, but that was hurt by some key late-down failures, as their 50% success rate was still fantastic.
Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown are must-starts every week against any opponent, with Gibbs lapping the entire field in expected points.
And you know what you’re getting with Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta, which is a tertiary option on one of the best offenses in the league.
It was Williams who hit last week, with his nine targets marking the first time he’s seen a 20%+ target share since Week 1.
LaPorta is TE5 in expected points so I doubt you have a better option, and Williams is a volatile WR25.

Raiders at Jets (O/U 45.5, LV -1.5)

Raiders (23.5 Implied Points)

Week 7 was rough for the Raiders, who managed only 33rd percentile passing efficiency and even worse 12th percentile rushing efficiency with a brutal 26.7% rush success rate.
Tre Tucker actually led the team with 11 targets last week, and he’s sort of like an even more volatile Jameson Williams but on a worse offense.
According to JJ Zachariason, Tucker has scored fewer than nine PPR points in four games but over 21 in three games; good luck guessing which one you’ll get, but at least there are ceiling outcomes to be had.
Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty, the only two must-starts on the Raiders, then tied for 2nd on the team with eight targets each.
The Raiders are 2nd worst in rushing efficiency and dead-last in success rate, which is almost exactly where they were in 2025.
Jeanty has only converted one of nine rushes near the goal line this season, so he’s underperforming his expected points by about 2.5 points per game.
Jeanty is still RB3 overall in expected points, though, because he’s 2nd behind only Jahmyr Gibbs in targets per game among RBs with 2+ games played.

Jets (22.0 Implied Points)

While the Jets lost to the lowly Dolphins in Week 7, their offense wasn’t the problem as they hit 85th percentile passing and 71st percentile rushing efficiency.
Garrett Wilson was 4th on the team in targets with only three, falling behind Braelon Allen, Mason Taylor, and Omar Cooper.
I was wrong on Adonai Mitchell, as it was Cooper who paired with Wilson in 2-WR sets, and Cooper broke out in the process with a 5/115/1 line, his 2nd straight game of 100+ receiving yards and a TD.
I’d start both Wilson and Cooper against a Raiders’ pass defense that is 23rd in efficiency and 29th in success rate allowed.
And I think Mason Taylor is a TE2 this week, so not startable in 12-team leagues, as he’s TE33 in expected fantasy points per game despite a fantastic two-TD game in Week 7.
And at RB, I’d fire up Breece Hall if he’s back from his quad injury, but if he’s not, Braelon Allen continues to dominate the work at RB, taking 46 of the team’s 59 snaps and 17 of the 18 RB carries in Week 7.

Falcons at Buccaneers (O/U 46.5, TB -2.5)

Falcons (22.0 Implied Points)

The Falcons are coming off a surprise nine-point win over the 49ers, but I think we can all agree that was mostly because the 49ers turned the ball over four times.
Having said that, the Falcons’ passing attack was very good, hitting 84th percentile efficiency.
Drake London unsurprisingly led the team with nine targets, followed by five each for Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson.
London and Robinson are must-starts against any opponent, so the only decision on this team is about Kyle Pitts.
He’s TE28 in expected fantasy points per game, but I don’t want to ding him too much for the Cooper Rush stuff earlier this year.
He’s had at least five targets in the last three games and has scored in each contest.
But this Buccaneers’ defense is no joke, ranking in the top 10 in most of the stats that I track.
I think it really depends on your options here whether you’d start Pitts, but it’s a tough matchup, and he only ran 63% of the routes last week as both Austin Hooper and Nick Muse were involved.
I still think the most likely outcome is a 5/45/0 line for Pitts.

Buccaneers (24.5 Implied Points)

I’d throw out most of what we saw from the Buccaneers’ offense in Week 7.
12 players around the league had more targets than the entire Bucs’ team last week.
Shoutout to Chris Godwin for dominating the nine team targets as he earned five of them on his own.
Bucky Irving only took about half of the team’s carries, but that’s because there were a whopping 49 of them and the coaching staff probably didn’t want to give him 40 carries in one game.
I doubt anyone reading this is considering starting Sean Tucker, but all his work came in short-yardage situations or garbage time, so you can’t trust his 7/52/1 rushing line going forward.
So, throwing out last week, I think I’d just start Emeka Egbuka if he’s healthy and Irving against an above-average Falcons defense.

Cardinals at Cowboys (O/U 54.5, DAL -6.5)

Cardinals (24.0 Implied Points)

The Cardinals’ offense struggled against a tough Broncos’ defense in Week 7, hitting 35th percentile passing and 44th percentile rushing efficiency.
Trey McBride and Michael Wilson paced the team with 13 and seven targets, respectively, and are must-starts this week against a Cowboys’ pass defense that is bottom-seven in every stat I track.
There’s some underlying negativity about Wilson’s target share and route tree since Marvin Harrison Jr was traded, but this is a get-right spot for him.
It’s trickier at RB as Bam Knight and Tyler Allgeier split the snaps, routes, and carries, but Knight has so clearly been the better player that you’d hope the Cardinals increase his workload if Jeremiyah Love sits again in Week 8.
But if Love plays, I would start him against a brutal Cowboys’ run defense.

Cowboys (30.5 Implied Points)

Now we’re cooking with 30+ implied points.
This is an explosion spot for Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens.
All three are must-starts against a Cardinals’ pass defense that is 2nd worst in efficiency and dead-last in explosive pass rate allowed.
In very deep leagues, I’d even consider Ryan Flournoy; he only earned 16% of the team’s targets last week, but he turned that into 70 receiving yards.
Flournoy has had at least 70 yards or a TD in his last three games.
And Javonte Williams is a must-start given the team’s nearly 31 implied points.
I didn’t get much right last week, but I did get Jake Ferguson correct as he only ran 16 of the team’s 28 routes and earned only one target; you can safely drop him if you haven’t already.

Chargers at Rams (O/U 44.5, LAR -6.5)

Chargers (19.0 Implied Points)

The Chargers are coming off a much-needed bye as they put up only six points in Week 6 against the Chiefs.
KeAndre Lambert-Smith easily led the team with nine targets against the Chiefs, and I think he’s someone to put on your watchlist, but those targets need the context that Ladd McConkey only managed to run seven routes due to a concussion.
And it’s still a gross three-man committee at RB between Omarion Hampton, Kimani Vidal, and Keaton Mitchell.
Assuming McConkey is healthy-ish, he’s the only player on this team I’d consider starting, but I’d rather not given the Rams’ pass defense is top 10 in efficiency, explosive play rate, and CPOE allowed.

Rams (25.5 Implied Points)

The Rams’ offense was great in Week 7, hitting 70th percentile passing efficiency and a superb 65.6% success rate along with 81st percentile rushing efficiency.
You’re starting Puka Nacua in every game against any opponent, and he earned 10 of the team’s 29 targets last week.
And the TEs combined for a 48% target share, so Tyler Higbee must have smashed, right?
Wrong! Higbee ran the most routes at the position, but Colby Parkinson earned six targets, Davis Allen five along with two TDs, while Higbee only earned three.
And now Terrance Ferguson could be back from IR this week; it’s going to be a pain deciding which of these TEs will score the most for us in any given week, though Ferguson is my much-preferred longer-term play.
At RB, Kyren Williams and Blake Corum split the snaps and carries, though Williams ran 10 more routes.
The snap rate was only close because the Rams had a commanding lead; Williams always plays more snaps when the Rams are playing from behind.
So, I think we can safely assume an even Williams/Corum split in this one against a terrible Chargers team.

Patriots at Dolphins (O/U 44.5, NE -7.5)

Patriots (26.0 Implied Points)

Week 7 was a similar story for this Patriots’ offense as they were very efficient passing (86th percentile) but terrible rushing (8th percentile).
They’re now top five in passing efficiency on the season and bottom five in rushing efficiency.
Hunter Henry and AJ Brown paced the team with seven and six targets, respectively, in Week 7.
This is a get-right spot for Brown against a Dolphins defense that is dead-last in efficiency, success rate, and CPOE allowed.
I’m starting Brown, albeit with less confidence than last week, but if he duds again against the Dolphins, we’ll need to start having some hard conversations.
I say this every week, but at RB, Rhamondre Stevenson is the one you want.
He dominated the snaps last week, taking 36 to TreVeyon Henderson’s 13.
And Henderson is losing snaps to Corey Kiner, who took six snaps and four carries in Week 7.
Henderson is 35th among 42 qualifying RBs in Next Gen Stats’ success rate, and he cedes nearly every high-value touch to Stevenson.
Stevenson is a good start given the Patriots’ implied points and the below-average Dolphins’ run defense.

Dolphins (18.5 Implied Points)

The Dolphins are dead-last in PROE this season, and they continued that approach in Week 7 as they passed at a rate 9.3% below expectation.
But when they did pass, they were downright fantastic, hitting 98th percentile efficiency and a 62.1% success rate.
That was their highest EPA per dropback in a game over the last two years, according to Sumer Sports.
The issue is that the ridiculously low volume means we need this level of efficiency for the Dolphins’ pass catchers to get home in fantasy.
Greg Dulcich led the team with five targets, and he had the best game of the season with a 5/86/0 line.
And then Caleb Douglas only earned three targets, but he made the most of them with 70 receiving yards and two TDs.
I wouldn’t trust any Dolphins receiver in my starting lineup, but Douglas is at least worth rostering in 12+ team leagues.
Ollie Gordon is my preferred start on this team as he dominated the work at RB, taking 54 of the 65 snaps, running 18 of the team’s 26 routes, and taking 25 of the team’s 31 RB carries.
You don’t love the high-value touch opportunities for Gordon on a team with just 18.5 implied points, but the Patriots’ run defense is average and Gordon has managed to score in four consecutive games.

Chiefs at Broncos (O/U 41.5, KC -1.5)

Chiefs (21.5 Implied Points)

The Seahawks’ game was a game to forget for the Chiefs’ offense as they managed only three points and sub-40th percentile passing and rushing efficiency.
With Rashee Rice out, Travis Kelce led the team with eight targets, followed by six for Xavier Worthy, and five for Kenneth Walker.
I don’t know Rice’s status at the time I’m writing, but I’d want to sit Worthy regardless, given the tough matchup against a Broncos’ pass defense that is top five in efficiency, success rate, and CPOE allowed.
Worthy is down to WR41 in expected fantasy points per game, while Kelce is TE11, so he’s in the low-end startable range despite the matchup.
And you’re starting Walker in every game against any opponent as he’s 2nd among all flex players in expected fantasy points per game, behind only Jahmyr Gibbs.
The Broncos are good at limiting successful runs, but much worse than the Seahawks at allowing explosive runs against them, which is great news for Walker.

Broncos (20.0 Implied Points)

We saw some signs of life for the Broncos offense, putting up 30 points in Week 7 against the Cardinals.
The Broncos hit a strong +6.5% PROE and 84th percentile passing efficiency, and Bo Nix led the entire league with 10.7 air yards per attempt, according to NGS.
If that continues, that’s great news for Jaylen Waddle, who is WR21 in TPRR and WR15 in team air yards share, and he once again led the Broncos in targets with seven in Week 7.
Unfortunately for Waddle, it’s a very tough matchup this week against a Chiefs pass defense that is 4th best in limiting completions for opposing QBs.
Waddle is WR36 in expected fantasy points per game this season, so I think he’s a flex given the rough matchup but potentially improving offensive ecosystem.
But that does assume Waddle is healthy, as he suffered a chest injury late in the 4th quarter, and I don’t know his status for Week 8 at the time I’m writing.
And then I’m pretty excited about Jonah Coleman; I’m assuming he went for a lot of FAAB in waivers by the time you’re reading this.
But Coleman’s snaps, routes, and carries in Week 7 matched those for RJ Harvey and JK Dobbins combined.
Coleman led the backfield in snaps on early downs, third downs, and in short-yardage situations, according to PFF, and he was much more efficient than Harvey and Dobbins on his carries.
I’d still prefer to sit Coleman this week until we see consistency from his role, given the fact that the Chiefs’ run defense is top six in every stat I track.

Eagles at Commanders (O/U 40.5, WAS -5.5)

Eagles (17.5 Implied Points)

The Eagles have the lowest implied points this week; life comes at you fast.
They were bad at passing the ball against the Cowboys, hitting 38th percentile efficiency and a nasty 37.5% success rate.
To be fair, they were down their starting QB, top two WRs, and top, I don’t even know, four RBs?
Makai Lemon had his best game as a pro, turning the team lead in targets into a 7/67/1 line.
I don’t know DeVonta Smith’s status at the time I’m writing, but I’d fire up Lemon if Smith sits.
Same goes for Dallas Goedert, who earned six targets and now gets a bad Commanders’ pass defense that is 26th in efficiency and 25th in success rate allowed.
At RB, it sounds like Saquon Barkley is going to try to play through both hamstring and back issues, but he’ll be tough to trust in the process, and he managed only 10 snaps in Week 7.
At the same time, I’m not really eager to put Elijah Mitchell into my starting lineup.

Commanders (23.0 Implied Points)

The Commanders are coming off their bye and a loss to the 49ers when they trailed throughout the entirety of the game.
With that game context in mind, they ended the day with 34 team targets compared to only 14 carries.
Stefon Diggs and Chig Okonkwo tied for the team lead with seven targets, as Terry McLaurin ran only four routes before going down with a season-ending injury.
I think you can start most of your Commanders players against a bottom-six Eagles’ defense, including Diggs and Okonkwo, but also Antonio Williams and Rachaad White.
All of Diggs, Okonkwo, and Williams ran at least 33 of the team’s 47 routes in Week 6.
And White dominated the RB snaps, seeing 45 compared to 12 for Jeremy McNichols and seven for Austin Ekeler.

Bears at Seahawks (O/U 46.5, SEA -3.0)

Bears (21.75 Implied Points)

We got a lot of good things from the Bears’ passing attack in Week 7.
They hit +3.8% PROE, 87th percentile efficiency, and did that on a more reasonable 7.3 air yards per attempt for Caleb Williams, which was average for the week.
Colston Loveland dominated the targets with 11 and has now scored in back-to-back weeks; this is what we wanted to see from Loveland during our fantasy drafts.
Loveland is up to TE8 in expected fantasy points per game and has underperformed that by about 1.5 points per game; that’s the largest gap for any relevant TE.
But two things that went wrong for him in Weeks 1-5, low targets and low catchable air yards, have improved with Williams back at QB.
Luther Burden only earned four targets, but he continues to make the most of his looks, turning that low target number into a 4/130/1 line.
It’s a brutal matchup this week against a Seahawks defense that is top four in most of the stats I track, but I’d still fire up Loveland and Burden anyway, especially as the Cole Kmet injury might push the Bears to more 11 personnel.
We got bell cow D’Andre Swift usage in Week 6 as he saw 59 snaps to Roschon Johnson’s 10.
I don’t know Kyle Monangai’s status for Week 8, but he didn’t practice on Tuesday, meaning it’s a little more likely that it’s Swift backfield again; he’s a must-start if that’s the case despite the bad matchup.

Seahawks (24.75 Implied Points)

We got some classic Seahawks football in Week 7, passing at a Jurassic 12.1% below expectation but hitting 94th percentile efficiency when they did pass.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba earned 12 of the team’s 25 targets and he’s overperforming his expected points at a higher rate than any WR in the league; elite players like JSN can do that.
The Bears’ defense has been good at limiting successful passes, but they’re 30th in the league in explosive play rate allowed.
And then I don’t even know who to recommend at RB.
Either none, one of, or both Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price might be back this week, so monitor both the practice reports and coach speak throughout the week if you’re in a position where you need to start a Seahawks RB.