Fantasy Football Week 10 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Every Game Previewed | Hoopes There It Is

Nov 11, 2026

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Welcome to another edition of Hoopes There It Is! We’re previewing every game in Week 10, highlighting advanced stats like EPA, success rate, pass rate over expected (PROE), and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) to help make the best decisions for your fantasy teams. I’ll provide a quick start/sit section at the top that stems from the longer write-ups. And if you’re interested in more, which I hope you are, you can jump to any of the 14 games this week. Let’s get started!

Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Demario Douglas (Start): This suggestion is dependent on AJ Brown sitting once again in Week 10. But if Brown sits, I think Douglas is a fantasy WR3. He’s had at least three receptions in each of his last five games, but more importantly he’s scored four TDs over that span. His nine targets last week were three more than any other Patriots skill player. And he benefits from playing the Lions in two ways: the Patriots should be chasing points and the Lions’ pass defense is bottom eight in every stat I track except sack rate. Douglas is also tied for WR9 in ESPN Analytics’ open score this year, so he’s balling a bit this year.

Jordyn Tyson (Sit): To start, I really like Jordyn Tyson the player. I have a lot of Tyson in dynasty leagues so I’m not particularly excited about this sit call. The issue is that the Saints are slowly ramping Tyson up and the coach speak indicates this could take some time. The four targets on only 16 routes were really promising last week, but again, it was only 16 routes or about a third of the team’s total. It’s tempting to start Tyson given the matchup with the Panthers, but I’d lean in other directions than Tyson until we see his route rate double.

Khalil Shakir (Start): The targets weren’t there for Shakir last week but he delivered an ok 4/58/0 line anyway. Part of the problem was the Bills went massively run heavy in Week 9, hitting -12.3% PROE. But everyone tries to do that against the Vikings’ defense, especially as the Vikings’ pass offense hit 0th percentile efficiency. This week the Bills get a Jets’ pass defense that is 30th in efficiency and 29th in success rate allowed, partially explaining the nearly 30 implied points for the Bills. And according to PFF, Shakir has played half of the 12 personnel snaps since Week 3 after basically not playing in 12 personnel last year. We should see both more and better passing volume for the Bills in this one.

Commanders at Giants (O/U 41.5, NYG -2.5)

Commanders (19.5 Implied Points)

Under 20 implied points is pretty brutal.
It’s a tough matchup against a Giants’ defense that is top eight in passing success rate, explosive play rate, and CPOE allowed.
And the Commanders are coming off a rough offensive performance against the Rams, hitting 33rd percentile passing efficiency and an even worse 12th percentile rushing efficiency.
Their 17.6% rushing success rate was the lowest among all teams playing in Week 10.
I recommended sitting all Commanders RBs last week, and I’m sticking with that again.
Rachaad White and Austin Ekeler split the snaps, targets, and carries, making this a difficult situation to parse, and they did absolutely nothing with their opportunities last week anyway.
The Giants’ run defense is above average in efficiency and success rate allowed, with their weakness in giving up explosive runs also a weakness for this Commanders’ rushing attack that is 28th in explosive run rate.
At pass catcher, it was Chig Okonkwo and Van Jefferson who paced the team with seven targets each last week.
I wouldn’t chase Jefferson, who only ran 25 of the team’s 42 routes, but Okonkwo is a high-end TE2 given he’s out there for 83% of the team’s routes and is earning volume in his role.
I think Antonio Williams and Stefon Diggs are WR3/flex types in 12+ team leagues as well, as they each earned five targets last week despite Diggs rarely playing in 12 personnel, despite all the injuries the Commanders have at WR.

Giants (22.0 Implied Points)

I’m working under the assumption that it’s JJ McCarthy at QB this week, which means I’m slightly less interested in this offense as a whole.
They actually hit 64th percentile passing efficiency last week, but once again, their brutal 36.8% success rate means they just got there with explosives that aren’t necessarily sustainable weekly.
And they were unable to do anything on the ground with Devin Singletary, as they hit 9th percentile efficiency and a 21.4% success rate, which was one of the worst marks on the week.
Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely paced the team with eight and six targets, respectively, and would be the only players I’d prefer to start on the team.
UPDATE: Cam Skattebo is startable if he's active and the coach speak indicates he'll get volume against a Commanders’ defense that is 2nd worst in rushing success rate allowed.

Patriots at Lions (O/U 51.5, DET -2.5)

Patriots (24.5 Implied Points)

The pattern continued last week with the Patriots struggling against a really strong pass defense, hitting only 20th percentile efficiency in Week 9.
But at least this week, the Pats get a Lions’ pass defense that is bottom eight in every stat I track except for sack rate.
I’m sure I sound like a broken record, but I would start AJ Brown if he plays.
If Brown sits once again, I think Demario Douglas is a WR3 starter this week.
He paced the team with nine targets last week, and he’s scored 15+ PPR points in four of his last five games, good enough to be a top 15 WR over that stretch, according to JJ Zachariason.
Article favorite Eli Raridon actually got six targets last week, but he only ran 19 routes to Hunter Henry’s 22, and for as much as I like Raridon, he’s not going to earn 31.6% targets per route run moving forward.
It’s a mess at RB; I’m assuming that TreVeyon Henderson is still out this week and that Rhamondre Stevenson’s knee injury will at the very least cost him Week 10.
That leaves Corey Kiner and Lan Larison as the only remaining RBs, with Kiner an uninspiring low-end RB2 in my view, as I have concerns about both the role and talent.

Lions (27.0 Implied Points)

Week 9 was rough for Lions’ fantasy managers.
Despite the +0.8% PROE, which is higher than usual for the Lions, they still only had 23 team targets and 27 carries.
Amon-Ra St. Brown dominated that low target number, earning 10 of them himself.
That meant Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for only eight.
At 27 implied points, against a Patriots’ pass defense that is bottom 10 in most stats I track and just got completely dunked on by the Packers, I’m throwing out last week and starting each of the big four Lions’ fantasy players.
One small note that isn’t very actionable is that Sione Vaki played more on 3rd downs last week compared to his normal rate, in addition to more short-yardage snaps, according to PFF.
The Lions are likely just trying to keep Gibbs healthy for the stretch run.

Jaguars at Titans (O/U 46.5, JAX -10.5)

Jaguars (28.5 Implied Points)

After hovering around a neutral PROE for the entire season, the Jaguars have leaned heavily on the run in back-to-back weeks.
Their opponents have not been able to push back at all, including last week’s 33-10 drubbing of the Ravens.
I’m saying all of this because I have the exact same concerns this week against a Titans team that are nearly 11-point underdogs.
Parker Washington led the team with seven targets last week, which was a much stronger concentration relative to Week 8, and he got home in fantasy because of one long TD reception.
The concentration for Washington was encouraging, and he’ll have better catch rate efficiency, so you’re starting him, but I still have concerns about the potential play volume here.
Washington is WR11 in first-half targets and WR44 in second-half targets, according to JJ Zachariason; we’ll need the Jags to get *some* pushback for Washington to really hit a ceiling.
Chris Rodriguez actually led Bhayshul Tuten in snaps and routes last week, and basically split the carries, but that was all game script-related.
The Jags just sat Tuten for essentially the entire 4th quarter, according to PFF, and there’s risk of that happening again this week, but ideally Tuten is a big reason for why the Jaguars have a large lead in the first place.

Titans (18.0 Implied Points)

Brutal matchups all around for the Titans this week.
The Jaguars’ defense is 3rd best in both passing and rushing efficiency allowed.
Their biggest weakness is allowing a completion rate 4.3% above expectation, but the Titans at -0.9% CPOE aren’t necessarily equipped to take advantage of the matchup.
The two players you’re really considering in fantasy are Carnell Tate and Tony Pollard, and both are playable depending on your other options.
Pollard at least dominated the RB work prior to the Titans’ bye, taking 63 of the team’s 77 snaps and all 21 RB carries.
At 18 implied points, we’ll have to temper our expectations here, not that that’s a big change for the Titans.

Chiefs at Falcons (O/U 45.5, KC -3.5)

Chiefs (24.5 Implied Points)

The Chiefs leaned heavily into the pass again last week and are 2nd in the league with +4.8% PROE, behind only the Bengals.
Speaking of the Bengals, they just destroyed this Falcons’ pass defense last week, meaning we’re even more confidently starting Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce in Week 10.
And as Josh Downs’ biggest fan, I’m firing him up in his first game as a Chief.
That does come with an assumption that Xavier Worthy sits this week, as he’s day-to-day with a hamstring injury.
And at RB, you’re starting Kenneth Walker every week against any opponent, but it’s a nice matchup this week as the Falcons’ run defense is below average in efficiency and success rate allowed and 30th in explosive run rate allowed.
Emmett Johnson got 20 snaps last week, including six carries, but that was just game script related, and his volume still isn’t sufficient or consistent enough to be flex-worthy.

Falcons (21.0 Implied Points)

The Falcons are at least easy to parse for our purposes.
Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts combined for 17 of the team’s 26 targets last week and are the only players we’re considering in fantasy.
Robinson and London are must-starts every week against any opponent; that just leaves Pitts as a question mark.
He’s seen between five and seven targets in each of his last five games; the difference is that he hasn’t scored in his past two games.
He’s a high-end TE2 this week to me, so you can sit him depending on your other options.

Bills at Jets (O/U 50.5, BUF -8.5)

Bills (29.5 Implied Points)

The Bills went massively run-heavy in Week 9, hitting -12.3% PROE, but to their credit, they were playing a Vikings’ defense that everyone tries to run on and a Vikings’ offense that was incapable of doing anything.
This week the Bills get a Jets’ pass defense that is 30th in efficiency and 29th in success rate allowed, partially explaining the nearly 30 implied points for the Bills.
Keon Coleman actually led the team with six targets, which was surprising given he hadn’t earned targets previously when DJ Moore was also active.
Moore is my preferred start among the pass catchers, but I think Khalil Shakir is flex-viable as well.
According to PFF, Shakir has played half of the 12 personnel snaps since Week 3 after basically not playing in 12 personnel last year, partially due to injuries to the Bills’ outside WRs this season.
And I’m not really sure what you do with Dalton Kincaid besides continue to start him despite only seeing three targets and a 60.5% route rate last week.
He has down games along with almost all but three TEs in the league, but we’ve also seen an actual ceiling in three games this year, which is hard to come by at the position.
And you’re starting James Cook every week against any opponent, though it would be nice if Ty Johnson wasn’t standing in his way from a route rate perspective.

Jets (21.0 Implied Points)

The Jets couldn’t do much of anything on offense last week, hitting 12th percentile passing and 11th percentile rushing efficiency.
Omar Cooper paced the team with nine targets last week, and the Jets should need to keep pace with the Bills, so I think Cooper is flex-viable this week, assuming the injury he picked up at the end of Week 9 doesn’t impact his availability.
That is also with the assumption that Garrett Wilson returns after missing last week due to a concussion; you’re starting Wilson if he goes.
At RB, Breece Hall is a low-end RB2 to me, as Braelon Allen actually saw 10 more snaps last week but seven fewer carries than Hall.
Hall saw an opportunity (carry or target) on 19 of his 27 snaps, so the Jets were committed to getting him the ball whenever he was on the field.
You can’t play him yet, but Kenyon Sadiq’s usage bumped last week, playing over 50% of the snaps for the first time when Mason Taylor was active, according to PFF.

Texans at Browns (O/U 39.5, HOU -4.5)

Texans (22.0 Implied Points)

CJ Stroud’s been slinging it recently, with the Texans hitting 94th percentile passing efficiency last week while leaning into the pass with a +6.1% PROE.
Perhaps just like the Packers, they’re finally admitting that they can’t run the ball and are just leaning on their QB?
Article-favorite Tank Dell actually led the team with nine targets last week, which was particularly impressive because he only ran 22 of the team’s 40 routes.
Unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be a clean path for Dell’s routes to increase a lot further even after his performance.
Nico Collins will always be on the field, and the Texans seem committed to Xavier Hutchinson in the slot; Hutchinson is an extremely limited WR for our purposes, but he’s awesome at blocking in the run game.
That really just leaves one WR spot for Dell, Marvin Harrison Jr., who they traded a high draft pick to acquire, and Kayshon Boutte.
Dell is my favorite of the bunch, but if he’s only running about half of the routes, there are going to be floor games where he does nothing, essentially.
He’s a risky flex play given the Texans’ lower implied points this week against a Browns pass defense that is above average in most metrics and elite in success rate allowed.
At RB, Woody Marks dominated the work, so he’s a low-end RB2 based solely on that volume, because he’s yet to score a TD since taking a large share of the volume four weeks ago.
It’s a good matchup for him though, as the Browns’ run defense is bottom six in every stat I track.

Browns (17.5 Implied Points)

While the Browns hit 57th percentile passing efficiency last week, that was almost entirely through explosives, with their 37.8% success rate more fitting of their actual performance.
Meanwhile, they bottomed out to an 8th percentile rushing efficiency performance.
Now they have 17.5 implied points against one of the best defenses in the league.
The one saving grace here could be explosives, though, as the Browns are 9th in explosive pass rate and the Texans’ pass defense is inexplicably 31st in explosive play rate allowed.
But I’m personally not banking on that, and my preference would be to sit every Browns’ skill player in this one.

Vikings at Packers (O/U 41.5, GB -3.5)

Vikings (19.0 Implied Points)

The Vikings’ implied points just jumped by 1.5 since I started writing this section as they traded for Kirk Cousins.
The Vikings hit 0th (not a typo) percentile passing efficiency in Week 9; they are fully aware they can’t start Carson Wentz again at QB.
But it’s a brutal matchup this week against a Packers pass defense that is top five in efficiency and explosive play rate allowed.
You’re starting Justin Jefferson every week against any opponent, and you’re pretty excited as a Jefferson manager that the Vikings did something at QB.
Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones split the snaps, routes, and carries last week, and I’d prefer to bench both given the team’s implied points and the fact that Cousins will have just five days to acclimate to his new team.

Packers (22.5 Implied Points)

The Packers destroyed the Patriots last week, hitting 99th percentile passing efficiency while Jordan Love was 10/10 for 146 yards and a touchdown against the blitz.
Matthew Golden and Christian Watson paced the team with 10 and eight targets, respectively, and are both WR1s in expected fantasy points per game at the position.
Tucker Kraft only earned two targets last week, as Love opted to pass deep down the field on every possible occasion; he’s a low-end TE1 given the matchup as TEs often have to stay in and block or at least chip and release against the Vikings’ pass defense that blitzes on almost every play.
At RB, Josh Jacobs fractured his finger after only 10 snaps last week; it couldn’t have happened to a better guy.
In his absence, Pierre Strong and Kaleb Johnson split the snaps, with Strong running seven more routes and Johnson taking six more carries.
Based on the carry split and the coach speak, Johnson would be my preferred option of the two, but my real preference is to sit them both this week, especially if Chris Brooks returns to action this week.

Panthers at Saints (O/U 48.5, NO -1.5)

Panthers (23.5 Implied Points)

The Panthers actually had a nice day passing the ball in Week 9 despite the Broncos matchup, hitting 68th percentile efficiency and a strong 54.3% success rate.
Even more surprising was that Darren Waller paced the team with nine targets after seeing two targets in all of the prior three games; he’s not truly startable.
I would continue to start both Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker, though, against a Saints’ pass defense that is below average in most metrics and bottom six in explosive play rate allowed.
And then Chuba Hubbard’s volume continues to be insane, as he took 59 of the team’s 66 snaps last week, including 31 of their 43 routes and 16 of their 18 RB carries.
Hubbard now gets a Saints’ run defense that is 28th in efficiency and dead last in success rate allowed.
There should also be play volume in this one, as both offenses play with pace, partially explaining why the Panthers are 5th in plays per game, and the Saints defense sees an above-average number of plays against them each week.

Saints (25.0 Implied Points)

Chris Olave is the only must-start player on the Saints as he earned 11 of the team’s 30 targets last week, seven more than 2nd place.
I’m pretty excited about Jordyn Tyson, but he only ran 16 of the team’s 46 routes last week, so it’s clear the Saints are ramping him up slowly; his four targets were still impressive given the low route number.
Alvin Kamara and Audric Estime split the snaps last week, with Kamara running 15 more routes and Estime taking nine more carries.
No reporter seems to want to ask about Travis Etienne’s status, so I’m mostly flying blind here, but my assumption is Etienne sits once again in Week 10.
If that’s the case, then I think Estime is an uninspiring RB3 in a plus matchup against a bad Panthers’ run defense.

Dolphins at Colts (O/U 38.5, IND -3.0)

Dolphins (17.75 Implied Points)

The Dolphins really disappointed in a plus matchup last week, making my start call on Malik Willis look very silly.
They had virtually no play volume, with just 21 team targets and 19 carries, and were bad on that low volume, hitting 19th percentile passing and 21st percentile rushing efficiency.
And now Willis just landed on IR due to a groin injury.
Caleb Douglas is the only player you’re really considering among the pass catchers.
He paced the team with eight targets last week on only 24 of the team’s 31 routes.
But with Kyle McCord at QB, I’d probably just sit Douglas in most situations.
I think Ollie Gordon is the only Dolphin I’d be interested in starting.
He continues to dominate the RB work, taking 41 of the team’s 58 snaps and 16 of the 17 RB carries last week.
Now he gets a Colts’ run defense that is dead last in efficiency allowed, with most of that performance prior to trading away their best defender.

Colts (20.75 Implied Points)

I’m writing this with about 30 minutes to go before the trade deadline finalizes, and it’s becoming clear that the Colts will keep Jonathan Taylor.
A brutal runout for JT managers, and it’s safe to drop Seth McGowan at this point.
Keenan Allen actually led the team with eight targets last week, but he’s now a member of the 49ers.
Josh Downs was right there with him, but he’s now a member of the Chiefs.
That theoretically opens every possible target for Tyler Warren, but Daniel Jones has just been so terrible this season it’s hard to get too excited about that.
The Colts are bottom-five in most passing stats I track, while Daniel Jones is last among all QBs with 200+ attempts since 2020 in fantasy points per dropback, according to JJ Zachariason.
McGowan cut into Taylor’s workload last week, but my assumption is we see Taylor’s normal, pre-trade-speculation volume once again.
I’d view Warren as a volume-based TE1 and Taylor as the must-start player he is.
The matchups are fantastic across the board at the very least.

Rams at Cardinals (O/U 40.5, LAR -9.5)

Rams (25.0 Implied Points)

The Rams are implied for 25 points, and I genuinely don’t even know who to suggest at pass catcher.
The implied points are a real testament to the Cardinals’ pass defense, which is dead last in efficiency allowed.
Puka Nacua earned 19 targets last week but suffered a knee injury on the last offensive play of the game and is unlikely to play this week or in the couple of weeks ahead.
I guess Tyler Higbee is my preferred pass catcher, as he led the team with five targets last week and ran 35 of the team’s 45 routes.
But I’ve suggested Higbee before, and he’s rarely done anything with the opportunity.
I think the real starts are the two RBs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum.
Corum especially gets a bump from his usual expected workload with the Rams nearly 10-point favorites.

Cardinals (15.5 Implied Points)

Wooooooof on 15.5 implied points.
Welcome to the NFL, Carson Beck; your first task is to not get killed by Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald.
Oh, you’ve also just lost your 2nd best receiving weapon, Michael Wilson, to a neck injury that will sideline him for the rest of the season.
You’re starting Trey McBride in fantasy, but boy do we need to temper our expectations given it’s Beck’s first NFL start against a Rams’ pass defense that is top six in efficiency and CPOE allowed.
And Allgeier will probably end up ranking as a low-end RB2, but that’s almost entirely due to volume.
Allgeier took an insane 51 of the team’s 53 snaps last week, ran 23 of the 33 routes, and took 100% of the RB carries.
Even with that volume, I’m still not excited to play him.

Seahawks at Raiders (O/U 40.5, SEA -6.0)

Seahawks (23.25 Implied Points)

The Seahawks’ passing attack was actually efficient last week despite missing Sam Darnold.
They hit 83rd percentile efficiency, which should make us more confident in this Drew-Lock-led attack.
Though in reality, you’re just starting Jaxon Smith-Njigba among the pass catchers anyway.
And it’s a really nice matchup for JSN here as the Raiders’ pass defense is bottom five in efficiency, success rate, and CPOE allowed.
At RB, Zach Charbonnet took 13 more snaps, four more routes, and seven more carries than Jadarian Price last week.
According to PFF, Charbonnet took the first two drives for himself and then split the snaps evenly with Price the rest of the way.
Fortunately for fantasy managers, George Holani is out of our lives after seeing only two snaps in Week 9, so it’s just a two-man backfield.
I think Charbs is a low-end RB2 and Price a high-end RB3 against a very bad Raiders run defense with the Seahawks nearly a TD favorite.

Raiders (17.25 Implied Points)

Welcome to the NFL, Fernando Mendoza; you get the Seahawks and Broncos over your first two starts.
Brock Bowers tied Tre Tucker for the team lead with eight targets last week, and he’s the only must-start player on this team.
At RB, Ashton Jeanty split the carries with Mike Washington last week, though there were only 12 RB carries to go around.
Jeanty dominated the routes 24 to five and was third on the team with seven targets.
If you’re playing Jeanty this week, his points will have to come through receiving volume.
I think this is going to be a rough game for the Raiders.

49ers at Cowboys (O/U 55.5, SF -3.5)

49ers (29.5 Implied Points)

Now we’re cooking with nearly 30 implied points.
The 49ers hit 91st percentile passing efficiency last week and a 61.8% success rate, tied for the highest of any team playing this week.
WR injuries have decimated this team, with Jordan Watkins and Demarcus Robinson leading the position in Week 9.
But they just traded for Keenan Allen at the deadline, and he’s been a target earner everywhere he’s gone, seemingly for the entire century.
I’d be willing to start Allen as a flex, while George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey are must-starts against any opponent.
But especially this week against a poor Cowboys’ pass defense that is 29th in efficiency and 27th in success rate allowed.
They’re not any better against the run, ranking 30th in efficiency allowed.

Cowboys (26.0 Implied Points)

It was the CeeDee Lamb show last week, with Lamb earning 15 of the team’s 31 targets as George Pickens sat with a hamstring injury.
I was personally excited about Ryan Flournoy stepping into the WR2 role, and he ran all 38 of the team’s routes, but he flopped with only three targets.
I don’t know Pickens’ status at the time I’m writing, but I’d be willing to fall for it again with Flournoy if Pickens sits given the game total.
Jake Ferguson hurt his knee in the 3rd quarter last week, and the injury is expected to cost him multiple weeks.
That leaves Brevyn Spann-Ford as an uninspiring TE2 who should run a lot of routes if you’re desperate at the position.
And then Javonte Williams is a must-start on TD equity alone despite the 49ers’ run defense ranking 1st in efficiency and explosive run rate allowed.

Steelers at Bengals (O/U 49.5, CIN -3.5)

Steelers (23.0 Implied Points)

The Steelers are coming off their bye and, before that, a drubbing of the Browns.
They only had 22 team targets, with DK Metcalf earning six and Germie Bernard five; those are the only two pass catchers that you’re considering in fantasy, and I think both are on the WR2/3 border.
The Bengals’ pass defense has been good from an efficiency perspective, but their underlying success rate and CPOE allowed indicate they’re more below average than above average as a unit.
And while the Steelers have gone run-heavy in each of their last two games after starting off hot from a PROE perspective, they should be chasing points in this one.
At RB, Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle split the snaps, routes, and carries in Week 8, but that was mostly because Warren got hurt in the 3rd quarter and saw his playing time dip from his usual level after that injury.
Warren is a must-start against a Bengals’ run defense that is bottom six in efficiency and explosive run rate allowed, while Dowdle is more of an RB3.

Bengals (26.5 Implied Points)

The Bengals once again passed at a massive rate, +13.4% PROE, and were fantastic in the process, hitting 95th percentile efficiency and a 61.8% success rate.
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins combined for 18 of the team’s 28 targets, and they are both must-starts every week against any opponent.
Dohnte Meyers is looking like a rare WR handcuff, though Ryan Flournoy didn’t really deliver on that promise in Week 9.
Meyers ran 16 of the team’s 32 routes compared to only four for Colbie Young and three for Mitch Tinsley, so he’s worth a bench stash in a deeper league in case something happens to Chase or Higgins.
And no one wants to hear this, but I still believe in Chase Brown clawing back some of his expected points moving forward.
The box score shows that Samaje Perine saw two more carries than Brown in Week 9, but that was entirely game script related, as Perine mixed in more in the 4th quarter due to the Bengals blowing out the Falcons.
It’s a very tough matchup for Brown in this one, though, as the Steelers are top 10 in rushing efficiency, success rate, and explosive play rate allowed.

Chargers at Ravens (O/U 38.5, BAL -4.5)

Chargers (17.0 Implied Points)

The Chargers have the 2nd lowest implied point total this week, below only the Cardinals who have a rookie QB taking on the Rams.
They’re down to 30th in PROE, once again hitting a prehistoric -14.5% in Week 9.
The Chargers’ one good skill player, Ladd McConkey, suffered from back spasms in pregame warmups and didn’t play; I don’t know his status at the time I’m writing.
In his absence, Tre’ Harris led the team with six targets but only managed six yards.
Then Quentin Johnston, KeAndre Lambert-Smith, and Keaton Mitchell tied for four targets each.
Justin Herbert also got hurt in Week 9, but it seems like he’ll play through a finger injury, as it wasn’t fractured.
It’s still a mess at RB, with Omarion Hampton, Kimani Vidal, and Keaton Mitchell each seeing between 18 and 29 snaps.
I’d prefer not to start any Chargers.

Ravens (21.5 Implied Points)

Speaking of prehistoric pass rates, the Ravens hit -29.9% PROE in Week 9 with Joe Fagnano at QB.
I don’t think we really need to dwell on that game, as we’ll get functional QB play in Week 10 with Jacoby Brissett taking his first start as a Raven.
You’re starting both Zay Flowers and Derrick Henry, with the Chargers’ pass and run defenses both below average, essentially across the board.
And I wrote about 500 words in the breakout article this week on Ja’Kobi Lane, excusing his poor efficiency to date given he’s had two quarters with Lamar Jackson at QB and comparing the role he’s likely to play with Michael Wilson’s role when Brissett was in Arizona.
There’s a ceiling case here if Lane can surpass Rashod Bateman on the depth chart and both the volume and quality of the passing game improve with Brissett going forward.
Lane’s an add-or-buy very low candidate but not startable yet.