Fantasy Football Week 10: Breakout Model Picks

Nov 11, 2026

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A quick shoutout to model favorite Michael Wilson. He has the biggest difference between expected and actual fantasy points at WR. And it looks like he’ll end the season that way due to a neck injury he suffered in Week 9. A brutal runout and hopefully he makes a quick recovery. Before heading into Week 10, let’s give some details on how these models work.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The table below shows pre-snap field position on the x-axis and air yards are on the y-axis. The numbers in the table show the average number of half PPR fantasy points that a target in that specific bucket earned in 2025.

So, I made a machine learning model that looked at every target from 2021 to 2025. It uses pre-snap field position and air yards to predict how many fantasy points a given target is expected to earn. And now that we know how many fantasy points every target *should* earn, we can compare those expected fantasy points to what actually happened.

The graph below does that for every player this season. Players far below the dotted line are underperforming their expected points and are potential buy-low candidates. And players above the line are overperforming their usage and are potential sell-high candidates.

And it’s a similar process for RBs. The graph below shows pre-snap field position on the x-axis and average fantasy points per carry on the y-axis. A run 10 or fewer yards from the opponent’s endzone is four times as valuable as essentially any other carry.

Just like for WRs and TEs, I built a machine learning model to calculate expected points per carry. It’s mostly using field position but also has a small adjustment for down, where 3rd down carries are slightly more valuable and 4th down carries are slightly less valuable.