Hoopes There It Is: Week 8 Game Preview

Oct 22, 2025

Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

By the time you’re reading this, we’ll be exactly one month away from the default trade deadline date in Yahoo leagues. And it’s similar for ESPN and other platforms. Let’s use what we know so far to set ourselves up for the playoffs. And through seven weeks, it’s clear we should be targeting the Cowboys and their opponents for fantasy.

The graph below shows offensive EPA per play on the x-axis and defensive EPA per play on the y-axis. The Cowboys are in their own atmosphere in the top-right of the graph, with one of the most-efficient offenses in the league to go along with one of the least-efficient defenses. Cowboys’ games have averaged 61 total points this season. If we’re hunting for shootouts, this is the best we’re going to find.

Unfortunately, all of the fantasy pieces in this Dallas offense are justifiably expensive. But this might be the cheapest opportunity we’ll get all season to buy pieces of their Week 17 opponent, the Washington Commanders. Jayden Daniels is hurt. Luckily, it doesn’t seem to be a long-term concern, but he’s still generally disappointed relative to cost so far this season. And he even disappointed literally against this Cowboys team just last week.

But that comes with the massive caveat that both of his top weapons, Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel, were on the sideline with injuries. Your league mates have had to make do without both of them in recent weeks, which in my experience, tends to lower their cost in trades. I think we want to target this matchup during championship week, so let’s go acquire this Commanders passing attack on the relative cheap.

Vikings at Chargers (Over/Under 44.5, LAC favored by 3.5)

Vikings (20.5 Implied Points)

• It sounds like Carson Wentz will remain the starter for at least Week 8.
• But my assumption is that, if he puts up a stinker, J.J. McCarthy’s ankle will make a miraculous recovery prior to Week 9.
• Wentz’s efficiency was just below-average last week, with a pick-six really dragging down his efficiency.
• There were 40 total targets to go around with the Vikings in comeback mode.
• And those targets were concentrated on Jordan Addison with 12, Justin Jefferson with 10, and T.J. Hockenson earning nine, with no one else seeing more than four.
• Jordan Mason unsurprisingly dominated the RB work, including 15 of the 19 carries, but we should get Aaron Jones back this week to eat into both his carries and, especially, his route share.
• It’s a tough matchup for Wentz and the receivers, as the Chargers’ pass defense is 10th in efficiency and 4th in success rate, limiting explosive passes, and completion percentage over expectation (CPOE).
• But you’re starting all three of the receiving weapons, with both RBs viable in my opinion, given the Chargers’ weak run defense.

Chargers (24.0 Implied Points)

• The Chargers continue to be great for fantasy because they’re 2nd in pass rate over expected (PROE) and 6th in plays per game.
• They played a seemingly-for-real Colts team last week and struggled in two main areas: pass protection and running the ball.
• Both point to very clear and significant injuries to their offensive line.
• Last week, DeForest Buckner had 12 pass rush wins according to ESPN, the most by an interior defender since 2023.
• And the Chargers gained 23 rushing yards on 10 non-QB carries.
• That puts the entire weight of the offense solely on Justin Herbert, who delivered a massive 50 targets last week.
• That’s obviously fantastic for our Chargers’ pass catchers, but we won’t see this every week.
• That context is needed for Oronde Gadsden, who earned nine targets last week, but that is just 18% of the team total.
• Regardless, I’m firing Gadsden up this week, given the byes and the fact that he is the Rob Gronkowski of Donald Parham.

Bills at Panthers (O/U 45.5, BUF -7.5)

Bills (26.5 Implied Points)

• I certainly have not given enough credit to this Panthers’ run defense.
• They’re now 12th in efficiency but the best in the league in stopping successful runs.
• It’s a strength-on-strength matchup this week, though, with the Bills 3rd in rushing efficiency through their combination of Josh Allen and James Cook.
• What I think we’ll see is slightly more pass attempts than we’re used to from the Bills, with a motivated Bills passing attack given their 10-point loss to the Falcons prior to the bye.
• As always, we don’t really know what Bills’ receivers will go off, but I’d be most interested in Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid, assuming Kincaid plays.

Panthers (19.0 Implied Points)

• It was a rough Week 7 for the Carolina passing attack, hitting 27th-percentile efficiency and losing Bryce Young to a high-ankle sprain.
• My assumption is that Andy Dalton will be the starting QB this week, and he was even worse than Young last week, but with the big caveat that he only had eight plays.
• Xavier Legette popped up with 10 targets, compared to only five for Tetairoa McMillan, with no other receiver seeing more than two.
• I’ll dig into this more in the Bengals/Jets game, but I think this was more a Sauce Gardner stat than anything else.
• The RB work was effectively split down the middle, as Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle rotated by drive.
• If the Panthers can keep the game close, it’s a great matchup for the RBs, as the Bills are 29th in defensive rushing efficiency and dead-last in explosive run rate.

Giants at Eagles (O/U 43.5, PHI -7.0)

Giants (18.25 Implied Points)

• For the second consecutive week, the Giants’ efficiency was much better than their success rate.
• That means they’re getting home on explosive plays, including a completely-blown-coverage TD to Daniel Bellinger where the closest defender was over nine yards away when the ball arrived, according to Next Gen Stats.
• They also had a wild tipped-ball TD to Theo Johnson.
• That ultimately led to a fantastic 0.37 EPA per play mark for Jaxson Dart on a terrible -17% CPOE.
• Sometimes the EPA numbers are fraudulent, and I think this is a very clear case (also, go birds).
• The two TEs mentioned above were 2nd and 3rd in team target share, as the Giants leaned into 2- and 3-TE sets given their WR injuries.
• And Wan’Dale Robinson is very viable on volume alone, given the 10 targets he earned last week.
• Cam Skattebo continued to dominate the RB carries even with Tyrone Tracy back, but he basically split the routes, hurting his ceiling a bit.
• It’s a good matchup for the RBs if the Giants can keep the game close, as the Eagles are 30th in defensive rushing success rate.

Eagles (25.25 Implied Points)

• The Eagles had two new career highs last week, with Jalen Hurts hitting 0.70 EPA per play and DeVonta Smith earning a 47.8% target share.
• But they got by on explosives like the Giants have done recently, hitting only a 40.4% success rate.
• Those explosives included a 79-yard TD to Smith and a 37-yard TD to AJ Brown.
• We saw some fun stuff, though, including under-center play action passes that we’ve rarely seen before, with Hurts ultimately completing all five of his 20+ air-yard throws.
• And the passing attack is still extremely concentrated, with Smith, Brown, and Dallas Goedert combining for 20 of the team’s 23 targets.
• Things remain bad for Saquon Barkley relative to expectation, as he hasn’t hit 100 total yards in a game this season and is averaging about half the yards he put up last year.
• We have a potential bounce-back spot for Barkley here, though, given the seven-point spread and the Giants’ league-worst rushing defense.

Jets at Bengals (O/U 44.5, CIN -7.0)

Jets (18.75 Implied Points)

• The Jets’ passing efficiency could only go up after Week 6, but unfortunately, it only went up to the 8th percentile.
• Justin Fields was hurt and then seemingly benched for Tyrod Taylor throughout the game.
• Taylor was bad as well but better than Fields in limited work, and I’m assuming Taylor starts Week 8.
• Josh Reynolds dominated the targets with nine, but that only resulted in three receptions for 29 yards.
• Breece Hall took 11 of the 13 RB carries but finished with fewer routes than Isaiah Davis because Hall missed some of the game with an injury that isn’t expected to impact his Week 8 availability.
• I guess I’m slightly more optimistic about the Jets if Taylor is the QB, but I really only want to start Garrett Wilson from this offense, assuming he’s healthy.

Bengals (25.75 Implied Points)

• With Joe Flacco under center, the Bengals went back to their roots with a 10.5% PROE.
• And they delivered 82nd-percentile passing efficiency on massive volume.
• 23 of Flacco’s pass attempts went to Ja’Marr Chase last week, for the highest target rate of his career.
• Seemingly every play was Flacco dropping back and instantly hitting Chase, facing single coverage on a slant route.
• Flacco’s 2.44-second time-to-throw was 2nd-fastest on the week.
• My strong recommendation to the Jets defense would be not to leave Chase in single coverage for the entire game.
• Sauce Gardner’s status will be an important one to watch this week, as team WR2s have thrived versus the Jets as Gardner takes away the team WR1.
• Through the first seven weeks, the team WR1 facing the Jets has out-targeted the WR2 only once, with McMillan seeing only three targets last week compared to Xavier Legette’s nine.
• But I don’t have to tell you to start Chase regardless of who is on defense.

Browns at Patriots (O/U 40.5, NE -7.0)

Browns (16.75 Implied Points)

• Quinshon Judkins didn’t see a target last week, but it hardly mattered given his three TDs.
• Unfortunately for Judkins, he doesn’t get to play the Dolphins every week.
• The Browns leaned heavily into the run, hitting -12.3% PROE because the Dolphins’ offense could not get out of its own way.
• Unfortunately, that led to only 18 total targets for the team, which was 32 fewer than the Chargers in Week 7 for context.
• Harold Fannin Jr. and Jerry Jeudy dominated the targets with half of the total, but that was still just five and four, respectively.
• We should see a lot more work for the pass catchers this week, given they’re expected to lose by seven points and the Patriots have the 3rd-best rushing defense in the league.

Patriots (23.75 Implied Points)

• Drake Maye once again delivered elite efficiency last week, hitting 0.37 EPA per play with a very high 24.8% CPOE.
• That CPOE was good enough to set a new Patriots’ single-game completion percentage record at 91.3%.
• Stefon Diggs remains the only WR I want to start in the offense, with Kayshon Boutte only earning two targets last week despite hitting one of them for a long TD.
• And Rhamondre Stevenson is the only RB you can start, as TreVeyon Henderson only saw 8% of the carries and ran only five routes.
• It’s a brutal matchup for the ground game, though, as the Browns have the 2nd-best run defense in the league.

Bears at Ravens (O/U 50.5, BAL -6.5)

Bears (22.0 Implied Points)

• The Bears continue to lean into the run more and more, with a -10.3% PROE last week.
• They won the game because of their plus-three turnover margin and their efficient run game.
• Caleb Williams only hit 0.00 EPA per play, which is particularly bad given his only negatives were one interception and one sack.
• D'Andre Swift continues to dunk on me for calling the bottom-left of every rushing graph the “D’Andre Swift Disaster Zone”, delivering his 2nd-straight 100+ yard rushing game.
• But we did see more Kyle Monangai in Week 7, as the routes and snaps were split between the two backs with Monangai seeing the majority of the 3rd-down snaps for the first time this season, according to PFF.
• It’s a great matchup for everyone on the Bears, given the Ravens are 29th in defensive pass efficiency and 31st against the run.
• I’ll be monitoring the Cole Kmet injury this week, with Colston Loveland a potential TE start if he’s out, given all of the bye weeks.

Ravens (28.5 Implied Points)

• In addition to the Cowboys, the Ravens are the other team I really want to attack in trades for the fantasy playoffs.
• They have an awful defense at the moment, given their injuries, and the offense is going to have to push every single week to will this team to the playoffs.
• I think we can ignore most of the offensive stats so far this season, given how long Lamar Jackson has been out.
• Fire up Jackson, Derrick Henry (I know, I know, it’s been rough), and Zay Flowers.

Dolphins at Falcons (O/U 44.5, ATL -7.0)

Dolphins (18.75 Implied Points)

• Things are very bad in Miami right now.
• They weren’t even able to hit 1st-percentile passing efficiency last week, with Tua Tagovailoa earning -0.79 EPA per play with -12.7% CPOE on a low 6.7-yard average target depth.
• The Falcons’ defense has been elite against TEs this season, allowing only 10 receptions, 99 yards, and one TD to the position in six games.
• But that won’t really matter for fantasy, as Darren Waller left last week with a pectoral injury and isn’t expected to play this week.
• De’Von Achane only ran half of the team’s routes last week, but that’s because they were down multiple scores and he didn’t play in garbage time.
• Achane is the only Dolphin I want to start in fantasy, but there’s a real chance he loses garbage time snaps again on one of the worst offenses in the league.

Falcons (25.75 Implied Points)

• Week 7 was rough for Michael Penix, with the pass game only delivering 24th-percentile efficiency.
• His fumble and two 4th-down stops really hurt his efficiency numbers last week, and Penix is 19th in EPA per play among 30 qualifying QBs this season.
• Kyle Pitts led the team in targets last week, and it was the first time his target share was above 25% since 2023.
• And you’re starting Drake London every week, but it’s another data point in a clear trend of lower-target-share games when Darnell Mooney plays.
• Bijan Robinson would be my bet for the RB1 overall this week, as the Falcons are seven-point favorites, every RB beats up this Dolphins’ run defense, and he dominates the RB work in Atlanta.

49ers at Texans (O/U 40.5, HOU -1.5)

49ers (19.5 Implied Points)

• Another week where I got the 49ers’ pass catchers wrong, as Jauan Jennings, in his full-body cas,t earned seven targets compared to two for Kendrick Bourne and zero for George Kittle.
• The 49ers really leaned into the run last week, hitting -11.5% PROE and finding a lot of success, partially due to Kittle’s run blocking.
• Christian McCaffrey led the team in targets with eight and took 24 of the 33 RB carries.
• At the time I’m writing, I don’t know who will start at QB.
• Regardless, it’s a very tough matchup against the league’s most-efficient pass defense.
• I’m still starting CMC (duh), Kittle, and now Jennings, given the bye weeks, anyway.

Texans (21.0 Implied Points)

• We knew the Texans would struggle running the ball last week, as the Seahawks had the 2nd-best run defense in the league going into the week.
• But boy did they *struggle*, not even hitting 1st-percentile rushing efficiency despite no rushing turnovers.
• They failed on a bunch of short-yardage plays on the ground, including two 3rd-and-1s and a 4th-and-1.
• If I had to start a Texans’ RB, it would be Woody Marks, as he took 10 of the 15 RB carries and ran 23 of the 36 routes.
• And these stats are likely artificially boosted given the 49ers’ injuries, but they still have the 8th-best rushing defense in the league.
• My assumption is that Nico Collins will be out in Week 8 due to a concussion he suffered last week.
• That left Dalton Schultz to tie for the team target-lead with 10, earning the 2nd-most receptions and receiving yards in his career.
• Jaylin Noel was 3rd on the team in targets, something I’m personally very excited about, but it’s hard to fully trust it as his snap rate didn’t change much in the first three quarters, according to PFF, and his targets were boosted by the Texans’ running hurry-up in the 4th quarter.
• I think Schultz is an excellent start because someone has to catch passes this week, and I’ll be squinting at Noel on my benches.

Buccaneers at Saints (O/U 46.5, TB -4.5)

Buccaneers (25.5 Implied Points)

• It was a rough Week 7 for the Buccaneers’ pass game, hitting 4th-percentile efficiency due to a poor 4.6 yards per attempt, four sacks, an interception, a Sterling Shepard fumble, and some 4th-down failures.
• This was Baker Mayfield’s lowest EPA mark since 2021.
• To make matters worse, Mike Evans broke his collarbone and is likely out for most of the season.
• In his absence, Emeka Egbuka and Cade Otton led the way with 11 and nine targets, respectively, with Otton another fantasy TE option this week given the byes and Buccaneer injuries.
• I’ll also be looking at both Tez Johnson and Sterling Shepard in some leagues, as they each hit seven targets, with my preference being Johnson.
• The ground game was efficient, with Rachaad White dominating the work, but there were only 11 carries in all.
• My assumption is Bucky Irving is back this week, and he goes straight back into your starting lineups if that’s the case.
• Having said that, the Saints’ defense is more susceptible through the air, as they’re bottom-10 in nearly every defensive passing metric.

Saints (21.0 Implied Points)

• This will be the largest if in the article, but *if* you remove the three interceptions, the lost fumble, and the four sacks, Spencer Rattler played ok last week.
• I’ve called Chris Olave a perma-buy-low as we’re always chasing his expected points on a below-average offense.
• But the actual fantasy points came last week via a two-touchdown game, taking his total for the season up to three.
• Rashid Shaheed actually out-targeted Olave, and Juwan Johnson tied Olave with seven, which was Johnson’s highest target share since Week 2.
• Alvin Kamara dominated the RB work with 11 of the 13 RB carries and 26 of the 29 routes, and that should continue with Kendre Miller tearing his ACL and missing the rest of the season.
• Despite their performance against Jahmyr Gibbs, the Buccaneers have a strong run defense and are still the 4th-most efficient unit in the league.

Titans at Colts (O/U 47.5, IND -14.0)

Titans (16.75 Implied Points)

• To start with a positive, Cam Ward hit 6.7% CPOE last week.
• But the Titans still were 11th-percentile in passing efficiency, especially hurt by an interception and five sacks.
• The targets were really spread around, as Tony Pollard actually led the way with six, both Elic Ayomanor and Gunnar Helm earned five, and no one else exceeded four.
• It was a career-high 36 receiving yards for Helm, who played over 50% of the Titans’ snaps for the 2nd time this season, according to PFF.
• Just like in past weeks, I don’t see a strong reason to start anyone on the Titans.

Colts (30.75 Implied Points)

• The Colts hit nearly 100th-percentile rushing efficiency last week, earning 0.50 EPA per designed run, which would easily be an MVP-level passing attack.
• And that goes along with Daniel Jones delivering 0.41 EPA per play with 5.2% CPOE.
• At nearly 31 implied points, I’m willing to start most Colts’ players.
• Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren are must starts, but I’d also start Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, assuming he’s back from concussion.
• Alec Pierce might also be an option after leading the team with 10 targets last week.

Cowboys at Broncos (O/U 50.5, DEN -3.5)

Cowboys (23.5 Implied Points)

• As the introduction elaborated, I’m pretty excited about everyone on the Cowboys.
• They only trail the Colts in EPA efficiency, but are 30th in holding down opposing offenses.
• It’s an incredibly fruitful fantasy environment, especially because the work is concentrated between CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, George Pickens, and Javonte Williams.
• No one else earned more than three targets last week, and Jaydon Blue played only 15 snaps, with seven of those coming in garbage time.
• All four of those guys listed are clear starts every week, even in a very tough matchup versus a top-five Broncos’ defense.

Broncos (27.0 Implied Points)

• After scoring zero points in the first three quarters, the Broncos scored 33 in the 4th quarter to finish a very improbable comeback.
• They only had a 2%-win probability with 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter.
• It was a poor game from Bo Nix overall, hitting 0.14 EPA per play but -10.9% CPOE.
• But with 45 total targets, a lot of players saw volume, including seven or more targets for Troy Franklin, Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, and Evan Engram.
• Only Sutton exceeded 74% of the routes, but I’m at least willing to consider all of the WRs above this week, given the implied points and the six teams on bye.
• JK Dobbins remains the only RB you can start in this offense, but he’s a liability for your team unless he scores a TD, given it’s a three-way route split with Tyler Badie and RJ Harvey.

Packers at Steelers (O/U 44.5, GB -3.0)

Packers (23.75 Implied Points)

• It wasn’t the best Jordan Love game last week, with the Packers needing 14 4th-quarter points to beat the Jacoby-Brissett-led Cardinals.
• Love ultimately hit 0.26 EPA per play but that was with -3% CPOE and on a very low 6.6-yard average target depth.
• Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft dominated the targets last week with eight each, as Matthew Golden earned four, and no one else exceeded two.
• Doubs and Kraft are starts, and obviously so is Josh Jacobs, who only saw half of the RB route,s but he was sick and had a calf injury heading into the game.
• The Steelers’ defense is below average overall but is good at limiting explosive passes and getting to the QB.

Steelers (20.75 Implied Points)

• It was a fantastic matchup versus a bottom-four defense, but still, credit to the Steelers for delivering 31 points last week.
• The offense hit 84th-percentile passing efficiency and 95th-percentile rushing thanks to Jaylen Warren.
• Aaron Rodgers hit 0.35 EPA per play with 4.9% CPOE on a 9.1-yard average target depth.
• So, the loss to the Bengals was purely on the defense, as they opted to single-cover Ja’Marr Chase and let Joe Flacco snap the ball and instantly throw to Chase on slant routes over and over and over again.
• Personally, I think by the 20th Chase target, I might have tried something else.
• It’s a much more difficult matchup this week for the offense, as the Packers are 1st in limiting explosive pass plays and 5th in stopping explosive runs.
• You can start Warren as he is the clear bell-cow RB again, while DK Metcalf is the only receiving weapon I’m confidently starting.

Commanders at Chiefs (O/U 47.5, KC -10.0)

Commanders (18.75 Implied Points)

• A very low 18.75 implied points for the Commanders, the week I make them the focus of the introduction.
• I think the two main reasons are the Chiefs dog-walking the Raiders in one of the most embarrassing games I’ve seen and Jayden Daniels’ uncertain injury status.
• Jayden Daniels hit -0.09 EPA per play and -9.6% CPOE last week, both of which are obviously bad.
• But you do need the context that his efficiency includes a strip-sack fumble, he was missing his top receiving weapons, and the Commanders were forced to play from behind.
• You’re starting both Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel as soon as they’re healthy, with Zach Ertz likely to lead the team in targets again if both sit.
• It was a three-week low in snap share for Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt, which is annoying, but he did take 13 of the 18 RB carries despite splitting the routes with Jeremy McNichols.
• With only 18.75 implied points, combined with the lack of receiving work, I’d understand if you wanted to bench Bill because he’s a liability to your team without a TD.
• But at least the Chiefs’ run defense is below-average this season.

Chiefs (28.75 Implied Points)

• To me, the Chiefs are the best team in football.
• They had their lowest PROE game of the season at 0.1% last week, but that’s just because they put the game away so early.
• They had more first downs than the Raiders had plays last week, limiting the Raiders to a 12% success rate, which is the lowest for any team since 2021.
• Rashee Rice returned and immediately dominated the targets with nine, four more than any other Chief.
• He was also a clear focus near the goal-line, and he’s the new number one WR in expected fantasy points, with a big caveat: it’s only been one game.
• And one additional caveat that his average target depth was an insanely low 2.0 yards, which is the 2nd-lowest among all WRs with five or more targets this season.
• My expected points model really likes air yards, so he’d need to keep getting multiple passes near the goal-line to keep this up.
• Brashard Smith earned five targets, but 13 of his 28 snaps were in garbage time.
• That is also the context needed for why Isiah Pacheco and Smith split the carries.
• At nearly 29 implied points, I’m interested in most Chiefs, including Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, and Pacheco.