NFL Schedule Release: Weeks 15-17 Targets for Best Ball Tournaments

Correlating Week 17 matchups has proven fruitful for winning best ball championships in recent years, particularly Underdog’s Best Ball Mania. Two years ago, Pat Kerrane took down the BBM3 and its $2M prize with a heavily correlated roster consisting of 12-of-18 players from just three Week 17 contests. Last year’s winner took home $3M with multiple stacks from two of the Week 17 games.

Thanks to a much flatter payout structure to this year’s version (BBM5), Week 16 becomes increasingly more important and something we need to pay just as much attention to when drafting in best ball tournaments this summer. It’s all laid out in this tweet thread by friend of 4for4 Peter Overzet, who does an incredible job of sorting through the brain-breaking math.

Of course, you can’t make it to the semifinals or final round of a big best ball tournament without getting out of your quarterfinal pod, so Week 15 is something to watch. Here’s a look at some of the best contests to target in those final weeks based on the variables outlined below.

More Best Ball Content: Strength of Schedule Winners and Losers for 2024 l How to Manage Rookies in 2024 Best Ball Drafts

Week 15 (December 12-15th, 2024)

Jack Frost is starting to nip if he’s not already nipping at those players’ noses, so here’s a list of the indoor games or ones with the ability to dome with retractable roofs in Week 15.

Dome Games

• WAS@NO
• MIA@HOU
• TB@LAC
• NE@ARI
• BUF@DET
• CHI@MIN
• ATL@LV

Possible Shootouts

Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions

This contest is a double whammy of fantasy goodness, as it’s both inside and has the potential to be high-scoring with the highest DK lookahead line of Week 15 (50.5).

Both of these teams are already popular in best ball, making them expensive to stack. The Bills and Lions have four players being drafted among the top 75 in ADP, with Detroit boasting three within the first three rounds. It’s difficult to get both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs unless St. Brown slides closer to the turn, which is highly unlikely since his ADP has climbed 1.6 spots up to 1.06 since early April.

A Bills bring-back could help bolster a game stack in that contest's flow. TE Dalton Kincaid is leaving boards at the 5.01, while rookie Keon Coleman will cost you an early sixth-round pick. Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir are more affordable in the ninth and 10th rounds, respectively. Anyone who misses out on an early game stack for either squad can grab Jameson Wiliams in the ninth or take a swing at rookie RB Ray Davis in the 14th.

Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans

We get another gem of a matchup here as the venue has a retractable roof, plus it’s projected as high scoring with an over/under of 49.5. Miami has two WRs and two RBs being selected among the top 95 picks this season, while the Texans feature five players with ADPs earlier than 57.

These teams aren’t cheap to stack like they were just a few years ago, but peppering members of both throughout your rosters is easily attainable.

Other notable projected high-scoring contests in Week 15

• GB@SEA - 47
• LAR@SF - 46.5
• KC@CLE - 46.5
• CIN@TEN - 46
• CHI@MIN - 46

Week 16 (December 19th-23rd, 2024)

We have only five indoor contests in Week 16 as opposed to six the week before.

Dome Games

• NYG@ATL
• TEN@IND
• DEN@LAC
• JAX@LV
• TB@DAL

Possible Shootouts

San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins

This is a fun one and takes place in sunny Florida during the middle of winter. The current over/under is set at 49 points, the highest on the Week 16 slate. The Dolphins and 49ers scored the second and third most points in the NFL respectively, last season and are locked and loaded for success with not many roster changes.

While their positional players are pricey, with both teams' main WRs being drafted by pick No. 27 and their RBs within the top 100, both QBs are being drafted outside of the top 10 at their position, which helps when stacking.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

This NFC North battle is one to highlight from both fantasy and real-life football perspectives. Both teams are emerging and feature young offensive pieces. This contest’s look-ahead line is currently 48 points, with Detroit a two-point favorite.

Thanks to a new WR room full of playmakers and a crowded RB depth chart, the Bears have plenty of stacking options in 2024, with five players, including rookie QB Caleb Williams, boasting sub-97 ADPs. Detroit’s players will cost you a bit more as they have two first-rounders (St. Brown & Gibbs) and Sam LaPorta leaving boards at spot 3.05.

Some solid bring-backs on both sides are David Montgomery (74.2) and Jameson Williams (97.0), plus Roschon Johnson (182.0) and Khalil Herbert (184.8) as possible later-season RB surges.

Other notable projected high-scoring contests in Week 16

• LAR@NYJ -47.5
• HOU@KC - 47
• CLE@CIN - 46.5
• PHI@WAS - 46.5
• TB@DAL - 46.5

Week 17 (December 25-30th, 2024)

One note of significance here is that the Las Vegas Raiders are the only team to play indoors in all three weeks mentioned in this article. It’s too bad they aren’t the most exciting for fantasy purposes, but Davante Adams, Brock Bowers, and Zamir White could be keys to advancing out of BBM pods.

Dome Games

• BAL@HOU
• ARI@LAR
• GB@MIN
• LV@NO

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers

Both of these teams have already been highlighted in this article in terms of specific pieces and their respective ADPs, but this Monday Night game should be fantasy gold. Santa Clara‘s average temperature is 58 degrees on December 30th which is perfect for football. Let’s just assume that the Lions and 49ers are vying for their respective playoff seeds unless they’ve already been clinched, which just adds to the high-scoring potential here.

Stacks and bring-backs have been written about above, and so has ADP, but here they are again anyway for consistency purposes.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

Here’s another divisional battle that could have playoff implications. The Rams are easier to stack than some of the other teams in this piece, as their ADPs are more spread out. Puka Nacua will cost you a first-round pick (9.3), but his fellow wideout Cooper Kupp has fallen to the late third, making them both attainable on the same roster. Kyren Williams’ ADP has slid more than half of a round since the Rams drafted Blake Corum and Matthew Stafford is an easy add at the 12/13 turn.

The bring-back situation in Arizona is that you either have to draft rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. in the early second round now, as he’s risen four spots since the end of April, Trey McBride at 4.09, or wait to take a swing at Michael Wilson (165.7) or Zay Jones (193.8). James Conner and Trey Benson are both viable with ADPs in the eighth and ninth rounds, respectively, but the Rams defense gave up the second-fewest fantasy points to enemy RBs in 2023.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

This NFC East matchup has an over/under of 47 and rarely disappoints, plus in Week 17, this could have major post-season implications. The Eagles are very difficult to stack as Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith are all being drafted in the first three rounds (Hurts is right on the 3/4 turn with an ADP of 36.6 so he counts).

Dallas stacks are easier to pull off, with only CeeDee Lamb leaving boards before the seventh round, but you have to have the first or second spot to get him. Jake Ferguson in the eighth and Ezekiel Elliott in spot 11.09 are solid bring-back options, with Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert as your late-round darts.

Other notable projected high-scoring contests in Week 17

• BAL@HOU - 46.5
• ATL @WAS - 46
• TEN@JAX - 46

2024 Bye Weeks

With the NFL schedule release, we also now know every team's bye week, and this year the NFL did their best to screw with us. This is usually an overrated aspect of fantasy football, particularly in redraft formats, but it’s important to know best ball in order to avoid matching up bye-week quarterbacks or tight ends in 2-QB or 2-TE builds.