NFL Schedule Release: Strength of Schedule Winners and Losers for 2024

May 15, 2024
NFL Schedule Release: Strength of Schedule Winners and Losers for 2024

Strength of schedule is a draft tool that can help when making decisions between several players at the same ADP, regardless of fantasy football format. There are several ways to calculate an NFL team’s SOS; the first is by using the combined records of a team’s opponents from the previous season.

This method does have its share of flaws, due to free agency, injuries, trades, and the NFL Draft. Using last year’s winning percentage method, here’s how all 32 teams pan out in terms of strength of schedule.

Sharp Football Analysis offered a different approach, one that uses projected win totals from Vegas. While neither method is perfect, using estimated data from the 2024 season gives us a more focused and current outlook rather than using last year’s information to attempt to predict what’s to come.

2024 Strength of Schedule, Win Totals
Rank Team Line Over Odds Implied Line
1 Atlanta Falcons 9.5 -140 9.8
2 Los Angeles Chargers 8.5 -160 8.9
3 Chicago Bears 8.5 -130 8.7
4 New York Jets 9.5 -115 9.55
5 New Orleans Saints 7.5 -120 7.6
6 Cincinnati Bengals 10.5 -120 10.6
7 Indianapolis Colts 8.5 110 8.3
8 Miami Dolphins 9.5 -145 9.85
9 Philadelphia Eagles 10.5 105 10.35
10 Carolina Panthers 4.5 -135 4.75
11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.5 125 8.15
12 Kansas City Chiefs 11.5 -110 11.5
13 Washington Commanders 6.5 -120 6.6
14 Jacksonville Jaguars 8.5 -125 8.65
15 Seattle Seahawks 7.5 -110 7.5
16 Arizona Cardinals 6.5 -120 6.6
17 Los Angeles Rams 8.5 -110 8.5
18 San Francisco 49ers 11.5 125 11.15
19 Green Bay Packers 10.5 130 10.1
20 New York Giants 6.5 115 6.25
21 Detroit Lions 10.5 -110 10.5
22 Dallas Cowboys 10.5 100 10.4
23 Buffalo Bills 10.5 -120 10.6
24 Las Vegas Raiders 6.5 -135 6.75
25 Denver Broncos 5.5 -135 5.75
26 Houston Texans 9.5 -140 9.8
27 Tennessee Titans 6.5 125 6.15
28 Minnesota Vikings 6.5 -135 6.75
29 Baltimore Ravens 11.5 110 11.3
30 Cleveland Browns 8.5 -130 8.7
31 New England Patriots 4.5 -150 4.87
32 Pittsburgh Steelers 8.5 -120 8.6

*table is taken from Sharp Analysis


Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are already a popular offense to target and are one of the easiest to stack. In the NFC South alone, which will face each team twice, the Panthers, Saints, and Buccaneers are projected to win an average of just 6.5 games between the three clubs.

Three Atlanta skill players are being drafted in the first five rounds of Underdog drafts right now, with Bijan Robinson as the RB2 at pick 1.07, Drake London as the WR10 with an ADP of 15.6, and Kyle Pitts leaving boards at the 5/6 turn as the TE6.

Their signal caller, Kirk Cousins, is being selected as QB18 in the early 12th round and makes for a nice fantasy QB2 for all formats in 2024. Add in Darnell Mooney, who boasts a fantasy WR6 ADP but has the potential to outproduce, along with Tyler Allgeier, a back who has averaged 8.6 half-PPR points per contest as the RB38 over the last two seasons, and there’s some solid value to go along with their favorable schedule.

Los Angeles Chargers

LA is an enigma heading into the 2024 season, with new looks all over the organization. Having the second-best SOS only helps the value of the very affordable offensive pieces right now, as no Charger is leaving Underdog boards before the sixth round.

One thing we can bank on is a more run-heavy approach this year, and the RB room is not surprisingly expensive at this point in the summer. Gus Edwards is the first one drafted as RB36 at pick 10.10, followed by rookie Kimani Vidal as the RB49 with an ADP of 14.04. Recovering from an Achilles tear, J.K. Dobbins is right behind at spot 14.10 as the RB50. Things should get a little less murky as training camps roll along, so by the time we’re in redraft mode, a clearer leader at RB will hopefully emerge.

Rookie Ladd McConkey is the highest in ADP in LA as the WR39. If he and Justin Herbert gel quickly, he has the ability to outperform his current fantasy WR4 status, particularly in any type of PPR format. Herbert has fallen into QB2 territory due to the perception of a run-first and often scheme, along with a change of weaponry, but could be a good value if he can return to 2021 form. We can’t forget about Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston, (although the latter is easy to do), as both should have a role and feature double-digit Underdog ADPs. All you Hayden Hurst truthers out there are in luck, as the TE boasts a final-round pricetag and is easy to stack as your TE2 or TE3.

Chicago Bears

Not only are the Bears one of the most compelling storylines due to suddenly having one of the most loaded passing attacks in the league, but they also have the third-easiest schedule according to projected win totals in 2024.

Five Bears are being selected within the first 100 players compared to just two in 2023. Caleb Williams, the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, is being taken as the QB11 thanks to his supporting cast, arm talent, and mobility. All three of the Chicago starting WRs are being drafted before the seventh round, with D.J. Moore (WR18) at 3.03, Keenan Allen (WR30) at 5.04, and rookie Rome Odunze leaving boards as WR36 at spot 6.06.

It’s tough to know how the volume will be distributed, but it could be a tougher scene for Cole Kmet, who posted a TE8 output in half-PPR scoring on a per-game basis last year but has fallen to TE15 as a 12th-rounder in early Underdog drafts. D’Andre Swift is being slept on as a low-end fantasy RB2 and makes for a nice add when stacking the Chicago offense due to his affordable late seventh-round ADP. Both Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert have appeal in best ball leagues only, but figuring out which one to target may not be clearer until August.

New York Jets

The Jets' win total line currently sits at 9.5, and they boast the fourth-softest schedule heading into 2024. New York stacks are easy to accomplish, aside from having to pick either Breece Hall or Garrett Wilson, as they both feature first-round ADPs.

Aaron Rodgers is back and, assuming he plays for more than three minutes, can easily outperform his current QB20 draft capital, as he’s surrounded by solid pass catchers in Wilson, former Charger Mike Williams, and rookie Malachi Corley. Williams is being drafted as a fantasy WR5, Corley a WR7, and Tyler Conklin is another solid late-round stab as a TE2 or TE3 in Underdog drafts. The Jets were already an offense that could overproduce with any improvement from 2023, so add in a cushier schedule, and they’ve become stronger targets in both best ball and seasonal leagues.


Pittsburgh Steelers

Talk about getting kicked when they're down. The Steelers lost Diontae Johnson, have the combination of castoff QBs Russell Wilson and Justin Fields to deal with, and now have the most difficult strength of schedule in the NFL. Not only is the QB room tough to figure out, leaving neither draftable in redraft, and both considered fantasy QB3s in best ball leagues, but their RB situation is difficult to navigate, too. Najee Harris is the RB23 in Underdog ADP, with Jaylen Warren, the more explosive option as the RB26, both eighth-round picks.

George Pickens is likely the safest option of the pass-catching variety and features an ADP of 4.07 as the WR28. Rookie Roman Wilson is a decent 14th-round dart, and Pat Freiermuth, who has had his moments, is likely appropriately priced as the TE16, but could best that if he gets valuable targets from his QB.

New England Patriots

Once again, we have a team that just keeps taking hits. The Patriots are certainly in rebuilding mode, and having to play two of the strongest offenses twice this season in Miami and Buffalo sure doesn't help. New England boasts the second-toughest SOS and they also have some of the least draftable offensive pieces on boards in 2024.

Only one player is being selected among the top 100 in Underdog ADP and that’s Rhamondre Stevenson. He’s coming off a disappointing 2023 but has the potential to bounce back as a Zero RB hero with a seventh-round price. Antonio Gibson should be used in tandem with Stevenson as a pass-catcher but can take over if things go south, and is being selected as the RB53 with fantasy RB3 potential.

The WR room is pretty ugly, with rookie Ja’Lynn Polk leading in ADP as WR70. Javon Baker and Demario Douglas are also bodies in that space but are nothing more than late-to-final round stabs in best ball and non-draftable in seasonal leagues. Hunter Henry is the lone receiving piece with the ability to outproduce in this Alex Van Pelt offense, and he’s the TE19 currently.

Cleveland Browns

The AFC North features two teams that are projected amongst the highest win totals in Baltimore (11.5) and Cincinnati (10.5). The Browns are calculated to have the third-most difficult SOS which doesn’t help their offensive pieces for fantasy purposes.

DeShaun Watson played just six games in 2023 and was the QB26 in fantasy points per tilt. He’s leaving Underdog drafts as the QB22 and is tough to count on for anything more than a spike week or two. Amari Cooper is the highest-valued Brown this season as WR29 with an ADP of 5.02, followed by David Njoku, who is the only other member of this offense with a solid and clear role as the current TE10. Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore are there, but shouldn't be considered more than very late darts.

The backfield is still a question mark as Nick Chubb (RB32) is attempting a return from a brutal knee injury. Jerome Ford (RB42) may be the lead back, but there’s also D’Onta Foreman and Nyheim Hinds to contend with. None of these rushers can be considered more than RB3s until we see how the cloudiness dissipates in the RB room.

Baltimore Ravens (Kind of Losers, but Not Really)

While they are projected to have the fourth-toughest road ahead in 2024, there is plenty to still be excited about in the Baltimore offense. The reigning NFL MVP, Lamar Jackson, is both 4for4’s QB3 and the third signal caller off Underdog draft boards. The addition of Derrick Henry at RB helps the offense as a whole, and the King has slid to an affordable third-round value as a Raven (RB9).

Coming off a breakout rookie campaign, Zay Flowers is a borderline fantasy WR2, with Mark Andrews falling slightly this season down to the TE5 at pick 5.05. If you still believe in Rashod Bateman, he’s there for the taking at spot 16.03, and Keaton Mitchell makes for a really nice 16th-round RB who showed flashes of brilliance and could be a league winner if anything were to happen to Henry.

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