Week 1 Waiver Wire Watch: Pickups & Targets (Fantasy Football 2022)
A new season here at 4for4 calls for a renovated Waiver Wire that can be used to attack any competition whether you're sweating for starters in 10-team leagues or prioritizing bench options in deeper 16-team formats. The relentless news cycle and cutdowns we experienced over the past month create chaos for roster percentages ahead of Week 1, but we'll diligently sift through every option weekly to ensure fantasy players are covered across the board.
For those who are unfamiliar with the phrasing, The Drop List consists of players who are rostered in at least 50% of Yahoo leagues and are no longer must-have assets, recommended additions are available in over 50% of Yahoo leagues, the Watch List contains in-depth notes on fringe waiver adds and players to monitor, and Deep Cuts includes player notes on those rostered in 5% or fewer of Yahoo and FFPC leagues.
The Drop List
The drop list will return with suggested releases at every position following Week 1. If your league runs waivers prior to kick-off on Thursday, now is the time to shed those unsuccessful Hail Marys for the best available starting kicker and D/ST options to open the year (assuming your fliers were occupying those spots to begin with).
It should go without saying, but also part ways with (in order) players who will miss the year, secondary tight ends, defenses, then kickers in standard leagues. Those rosters slots are much better occupied by an upside/backup running back or receiver, especially early on. See the Contingency Top 10 below for stash rankings.
Overall Top 10
2. Romeo Doubs
3. K.J. Hamler
6. Mo Alie-Cox
7. Mark Ingram
8. Jeff Wilson
10. Mike Davis
High-Stakes Top 10
1. Romeo Doubs
4. Mike Davis
6. Kenyan Drake
8. Jordan Mason
9. Noah Brown
10. Ameer Abdullah
For those looking to roster the best available player(s) regardless of position, the rankings above take into account every factor from the positional lists minus players’ actual positions for both recreational (Yahoo, ESPN) and high-stakes (FFPC, NFFC) formats, the latter which have been taking place since May with no waivers period to date. These are listed in the precise order I would prioritize waiver claims in those leagues ahead of Week 1. Adjust accordingly for what you need on your roster — touches, high-upside bench stashes, targets, one-week spot-starters, etc.
A handful of names (Doubs, Pacheco, Likely) have obviously fallen by the wayside in FFPC solely because Main Events have been running since May, whereas most Yahoo managers weren’t on the clock until after Doubs had already scored two preseason touchdowns. I would imagine these two lists veer closer to mirroring one another from Week 2 on.
Contingency Top 10
4. Eno Benjamin
7. Chris Evans
10. Matt Breida
For those looking to stash the best available backup(s) with minimum standalone value, the rankings above were designed to help prioritize direct backups in the event the player in front of them was absent. These are listed in the precise order I would stash them ahead of Week 1. Presumed targets, touches, environment, remaining schedule, etc. are included in the process.
Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston is rostered in 46% of Yahoo leagues. No. 1 QB add if available.
1. Daniel Jones
3. Davis Mills
Running Backs
Jamaal Williams is rostered in 47% of Yahoo leagues. No. 1 RB add if available.
3. Mark Ingram
4. Jeff Wilson
5. Mike Davis
6. Kenyan Drake
9. Jordan Mason
10. Jaylen Warren
Wide Receivers
Josh Palmer is rostered in 22% of Yahoo leagues. No. 1 WR add if available.
1. Romeo Doubs
2. K.J. Hamler
6. Noah Brown
Tight Ends
1. Mo Alie-Cox
Defense/Special Teams
1. Cleveland Browns
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
Kickers
3. Jake Elliott
Quarterbacks
1. Daniel Jones, Giants — Rostered in 27% of Yahoo leagues (Suggested 1-2% FAAB Bid)
A new era under coach Brian Daboll entails New York utilizing four-wide receiver sets and ignoring their inline options entirely, allowing Jones to either pepper the ball quickly — he recorded a 70% completion rate for 7.3 yards per attempt from a clean pocket the past two years — or take off running for extra yards; 68% of Josh Allen’s scrambles across his last seven starts were actually designed runs, gifting Jones (who has similar attributes) the highest floor-ceiling combo of his career. Harold Landry’s torn ACL also leaves the Titans without its leader in sacks (12) and pressures (63) from last year.
2. Ryan Tannehill, Titans — Rostered in 20% of Yahoo leagues (1-2%)
If Jones and the Giants can respond on offense, Tannehill himself is in a position to thrive considering he averaged 8.2 yards per attempt on 144 throws (28.9% of his total pass attempts) with Derrick Henry on the field last year compared to 6.3 YPA on 354 passes without him, per Sports Info Solutions. New York’s secondary is in no position to impede Tannehill since S Logan Ryan and Pro-Bowl CB James Bradberry vacate a combined 31 starts for the beatable Adoree' Jackson and sophomore CB Aaron Robinson (transitioning to the boundary for the first time in his career) to soak up by default.
3. Davis Mills, Texans — Rostered in 6% of Yahoo Leagues (1%)
This is purely a bet on Mills’ last five starts carrying over after he proved competent in completing 68.4% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt with four top-12 finishes in that stretch. Volume at the very least is in Mills’ favor since the Texans have been buried by Vegas as 8.5-point home dogs engulfed in an inevitable negative game script.
Watch List: Tight-end eligible in most formats, stashing Taysom Hill ahead of his pending usage as a receiver in Week 1 could be the difference in rostering a TE1 cheat code before your league mates have a chance to get into bidding wars with you. If that role doesn't pan out, you can simply drop him for a backup RB in Week 2.
Running Backs
1. J.D. McKissic, Commanders — Rostered in 32% of Yahoo leagues (Suggested 12-15% FAAB Bid)
Brian Robinson’s tragedy has left Washington’s backfield in the exact situation as last year when McKissic was being drafted in the mid-11th round as the team’s de facto option on conversion downs over Antonio Gibson. The proof was in the pudding prior to injury as McKissic out-targeted Gibson 17-1 on 3rd and 4th down through Week 12, averaging a career-high 11.6 PPR points per game before enduring November’s season-ending concussion. The veteran also has sneaky contingency value since this same coaching staff entrusted him for eight targets and 16.7 touches per game on 76% of snaps in three instances Gibson was either injured or unavailable. It’s fair to question McKissic’s ceiling for as long as Gibson is healthy, making Isiah Pacheco (see below) the player to stash for any long-term outlook if already set at your RB and FLEX spots in Week 1.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 10-team PPR leagues
2. Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs – Rostered in 31% of Yahoo leagues (8-10%)
I question the usefulness of Pacheco’s snaps for redraft leagues but his September ADP as the RB45 on Main Event boards (per Fantasy Mojo) warrants our attention considering he remains stranded on most waivers in leagues that were completed before camp. What his stashers are hoping for (outside of an injury ahead of him) is a larger role than what was displayed alongside Patrick Mahomes during the preseason, ceding three 3rd-down snaps to Jerick McKinnon (compared to Pacheco’s two) and all early-down work to Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
3. Mark Ingram, Saints – Rostered in 25% of Yahoo leagues (5-6%)
If New Orleans’ backfield usage with Jameis Winston in their third preseason game — Alvin Kamara logged five snaps to Mark Ingram’s 4 — is any indication of how they’ll be utilized in the regular season, Ingram will presumably handle the same 9.2 touches (coupled with goal-line carries) he averaged in four appearances alongside Kamara last year. Reminder Ingram averaged 15 carries and 7.5 targets as an every-down workhorse and premier stash in his only two spot-starts for Kamara upon joining the team.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
4. Jeff Wilson, 49ers – Rostered in 8% of Yahoo leagues (5-8%)
Third-round additions at running back in consecutive years suggest Kyle Shanahan is still searching for anyone to help alleviate the pile of carries he’s handed to his starters (through multiple injuries) in that stretch. Elijah Mitchell recorded every running back carry inside the red zone during the 12 games he finished last year but Wilson’s 6-foot, 210-pound frame could still be envisioned to grind between the tackles at the goal line. It only helps that Tyrion Davis-Price failed to move any higher than fourth on the team’s depth chart out of camp.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
5. Mike Davis, Ravens - Rostered in 28% of Yahoo leagues (2-4%)
6. Kenyan Drake, Ravens – Rostered in 11% of Yahoo leagues (2-4%)
At the time of this writing, J.K. Dobbins’ (knee) status for Week 1 is “certainly in doubt” against a Jets front-seven that most recently allowed a league-high in points per game to opposing running backs and failed to add any significant help on the open market. I do not project a high ceiling for either since the Ravens recorded the league’s third, fourth, and fifth-fewest backfield targets from Lamar Jackson the past three years, but one could certainly get there as a plug-and-play RB3/4 in the interim if entrusted for a bulk of Baltimore’s carries. I lean Davis if only because he’s had the team's playbook since May. I also suggest allocating whatever percentage of your budget towards your preferred one since it's unlikely both hit.
Recommendation: Can be rostered as short-term options in 12-team leagues
7. Kyren Williams, Rams – Rostered in 1% of Yahoo leagues (1%)
Sean McVay (per himself) did not play Williams at any point during the preseason because the latter is apparently a player the team “anticipates having a big role” out the gates alongside Cam Akers (undisclosed) and Darrell Henderson. Given that Los Angeles plays on Thursday, adding Kyren ahead of kick-off allows those who roster him to take a peek at his role and, at worst, drop him overnight Saturday if nothing comes of it. Prioritize Williams over both Ravens RBs if you’re not pressed for touches in Week 1.
Recommendation: Can be stashed in deep 12-team leagues
8. Dontrell Hilliard, Titans – Rostered in 7% of Yahoo leagues (1-2%)
Lost in the shuffle of preseason play was that Dontrell Hilliard was consistently rested with Tennessee’s starters while UDFA Julius Chestnut and 6-foot-1, 228-pound bruiser Hassan Haskins duked it out for the No. 3 role. There is no confusion over who the every-down contingency option to stash behind Derrick Henry is.
Recommendation: Should be stashed as Derrick Henry’s direct backup in 12-team leagues
9. Jordan Mason, 49ers – Rostered in 0% of Yahoo leagues (1-2%)
There are worse darts to throw with the last pick in 20-round leagues than Mason, who could conceivably be active on game days over Davis-Price if only because the former has collegiate experience on special teams. A relative unknown emerging from Shanahan’s backfield, similar to Mitchell last year, would not be surprising.
Recommendation: Should be stashed in deep 12-team leagues
10. Jaylen Warren, Steelers – Rostered in 2% of Yahoo leagues (1-2%)
Warren would be higher on this list if we could without question project him for goal line touches over Benny Snell in the event Najee Harris’ preseason Lisfranc sprain came back to haunt him. At the very least, we know Warren is listed as Pittsburgh’s No. 2 behind Harris on the team's official depth chart.
Recommendation: Should be stashed in deep 12-team leagues
Watch List: Zamir White's worst-case scenario entails splitting early-down carries in a four-headed committee with Josh Jacobs, Ameer Abdullah, and Brandon Bolden. His best-case outlook involves him receiving more carries than Josh Jacobs as early as Week 1...As mentioned above, Jerick McKinnon played three 3rd-down snaps to Pacheco's two during the preseason, consistently being used as Kansas City's second running back off the bench behind CEH. It's worth stashing him wherever possible since whomever earns Kansas City's snaps on the goal line will be the one worth keeping long-term...Albeit battling an ankle injury and likely sidelined for Week 1, Isaiah Spiller's role as Austin Ekeler's potential backup has not changed in the long run. He need only beat out Josh Kelley and Sony Michel (a cut-day addition) when the time comes.
Deep Cuts: Ameer Abdullah projects for Kenyan Drake's vacated role on receiving downs, offering targets in a pinch for those already struggling for points in deep 14-team leagues...No one knows how the Falcons will ultimately disperse their empty carries between Damien Williams and Tyler Allgeier, qualifying both as viable stashes if only for their pending roles in an ambiguous backfield...Miles Sanders (hamstring) returned to practice last week but a soft tissue injury this early into the year is enough to boost Boston Scott's contingency value in 20-round leagues...The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia believes Buffalo's backfield has "all the potential to devolve into a muddy three-person committee" involving Devin Singletary, James Cook, and Zack Moss. The latter is still available in most leagues.
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Romeo Doubs, Packers – Rostered in 32% of Yahoo leagues (Suggested 15-18% FAAB Bid)
Overlooked in a majority of drafts that occurred prior to training camp, 22-year-old Doubs’ ADP (125) has since surged into the 10th round of high-stakes leagues ahead of Christian Watson’s (181) and Sammy Watkins’ (197). Adding to his hype out of camp is Doubs’ immediate path to targets since both Allen Lazard (undisclosed) and Watson (knee) are eyeing questionable tags against the Vikings for Week 1. Doubs inarguably offers the most short- and long-term upside of any receiver on this list given the role he could carve out in an ambiguous (and wide open) target tree.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 10-team leagues
2. K.J. Hamler, Broncos – Rostered in 5% of Yahoo leagues (8-10%)
Plagued with hamstring strains and a torn ACL through his first two seasons, Hamler has quietly averaged 5.8 targets in the only six games he's logged 70% of Denver's snaps in. I don’t consider him a viable weekly option for redraft leagues so much as a player with contingency value to be ahead of just in case either Courtland Sutton or Jerry Jeudy are injured on Monday night.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
3. Van Jefferson, Rams – Rostered in 7 percent of Yahoo leagues (1-2%)
Los Angeles led the league in 3-WR sets (86%) last year, which logically glues Jefferson to the field for the same 90% of snaps he logged in 7-of-14 games once DeSean Jackson was cut. Even in undergoing “minor” knee surgery ahead of the season opener, Jefferson is expected to return as a FLEX option in projected shootouts (similar to Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s or K.J. Osborn’s role) for deeper rosters as early as Week 2.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in deep 12-team leagues
4. Jamison Crowder, Bills – Rostered in 3% of Yahoo leagues (1%)
5. Khalil Shakir, Bills – Rostered in 1% of Yahoo leagues (1%)
To be clear, Isaiah McKenzie is the player to target (wherever applicable) among this group since he played every first-string preseason snap with Josh Allen, even staying in on two-wide sets from the boundary when Stefon Diggs took a breather. Crowder and Shakir (in that order) are merely insurance in case deeper rosters want to “take a peek” at them given McKenzie’s late-August groin injury.
Recommendation: Can be rostered in 14-team leagues
6. Noah Brown, Cowboys – Rostered in 0% of Yahoo leagues (1%)
There’s a real chance Brown opens the year across from CeeDee Lamb in two-wide sets since Dallas soured on third-round rookie Jalen Tolbert throughout the summer, deploying him with the second-and third-string offenses in the first half of their final preseason game. With the Cowboys kicking off Sunday night, Brown can be treated as a one-week stash similar to a backup RB you’re expecting to shuffle onto waivers following Week 1.
Recommendation: Can be stashed in deep 12-team leagues
Watch List: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine consistently played in two-wide sets across from Robert Woods and over rookie Treylon Burks throughout the preseason. It would not be shocking if NWI were listed among the priority receivers to add before Week 2...6-foot-3, 208-pound Alec Pierce profiles as a player the Colts would logically feature in the red zone, but note that it's Parris Campbell who played in two-wide sets with Michael Pittman throughout camp.
Deep Leagues: A.J. Green could sit up like the Undertaker for 14-team, 3-WR leagues if both Rondale Moore (undisclosed) and Antoine Wesley (groin, IR) are sidelined in Week 1...Zay Jones was gifted a three-year, $24 million contract with $14 million guaranteed on the open market by Jacksonville's new regime and was treated as such in two-wide sets throughout camp. What comes next is up in the air given his history of production with 70 receiving yards in just 1-of-49 appearances the past three seasons, but his known role logically bumps Marvin jones down the depth chart...For what it's worth, Nelson Agholor reportedly did a 180 as “the team’s best wide receiver throughout training camp and the preseason” following his first-year disaster in Foxborough. Tyquan Thornton's fractured collarbone will prove whether Agholor truly turned the corner.
TIGHT ENDS
1. Mo Alie-Cox, Colts — Rostered in 9% of Yahoo leagues (Suggested 10-12% FAAB Bid)
The Colts proved there is no competition for Alie-Cox this preseason, calling his number for a route on 75% of Matt Ryan’s 20 dropbacks (per Establish The Run’s Adam Levitan). With minimum changeover from last year’s defense that permitted the eighth-most fantasy points to enemy tight ends, a soft opening matchup against Houston could easily morph Alie-Cox into an immediate TE1. I’m not opposed to treating him as such before we see it.
2. Isaiah Likely, Ravens — Rostered in 9% of Yahoo leagues (4-6%)
The most coveted player at his position in TE-Premium formats, Likely earned that label by averaging 4.97 Yards Per Route Run on 12 targets (and 12 ensuing receptions) in two preseason games. Being Baltimore’s third receiving option admittedly lends big-picture questions, but Likely’s 41% target-per-route rate is salivating enough to stash him and see what comes of it amid an injury-riddled backfield vying for (few) shallow targets in Week 1.
3. Harrison Bryant, Browns — Rostered in 0% of Yahoo leagues (8-10%)
Cleveland was comfortable with Harrison Bryant’s place on the depth chart to leave him as one of only two tight ends on the active roster following final cuts, only signing journeyman Jesse James off the streets once he was released. Friendly reminder Bryant registered five top-24 finishes in 2021 and has out-targeted David Njoku 16-15 in four career games without Austin Hooper.
Watch List: Pro Football Focus' Dwain McFarland astutely noted that Texans TE Brevin Jordan ran a route on 80% of the team's first-string dropbacks without Pharoah Brown (hamstring) available this preseason. O.J. Howard's sudden signing pours cold water on Jordan's ceiling outlook, but similar usage in Week 1 would cement the latter's place among prioritized options next week...It's unclear whether Cameron Brate or Kyle Rudolph will be used inside the red zone in place of Rob Gronkowski. But what we do know is that Brate played 8-of-11 first-team snaps with Tom Brady during the team's preseason finale (via Underdog's Hayden Winks).
Deep Leagues: Friendly reminder John Bates was practically an every-down player (85% snaps) in his five full spot-starts for Logan Thomas (knee, questionable) last year...Ricky Seals-Jones' stint on injured reserve opens the door for rookie TE Daniel Bellinger to be a three-down player if the Giants deploy that position over utilizing an extra tackle frequently.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
1. Cleveland Browns – Rostered in 20% of Yahoo leagues
Planning for Cleveland’s opening month could just as easily backfire with Jacoby Brissett at the helm, but there is arguably no better opening stretch to target than blindly playing its defense against Baker Mayfield (this Sunday), Joe Flacco/Zach Wilson, Mitch Trubisky/Kenny Pickett, and Marcus Mariota/Desmond Ridder through Week 4.
2. Cincinnati Bengals – Rostered in 37% of Yahoo leagues
Trubisky was pressured on five more snaps (14) than any other quarterback for the Steelers this preseason despite recording fewer dropbacks (39) than all. This is also a bet on the perceived game script as the Bengals are near-touchdown favorites (-6.5) at home.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars – Rostered in 1% of Yahoo leagues
Watch List: For those looking to stash beyond the season opener: the Los Angeles Chargers open in tough divisional matchups against the Raiders and Chiefs (the latter being a short turnaround) but then are served the Jaguars, Texans, and Browns on a silver platter through Week 5.
KICKERS
The following list couples John Paulsen's projections with long-term outlooks. Adjust accordingly if shuffling through kickers weekly:
1. Dustin Hopkins, Chargers - Rostered in 39% of Yahoo leagues
2. Rodrigo Blankenship, Colts - Rostered in 22% of Yahoo leagues
3. Jake Elliott, Eagles - Rostered in 21% of Yahoo leagues
4. Randy Bullock, Titans - Rostered in 3 percent of Yahoo leagues
