The Fantasy Football Implications of RJ Harvey to the Broncos

With the 60th overall pick of the 2025 NFL Draft, the Denver Broncos made a somewhat surprising pick in running back RJ Harvey. The former UCF Knight is a compact running back with exceptional production and analytics, who found his way into arguably the best landing spot in the draft. Despite lower pre-draft grades and less than prototypical size, could the 24-year-old be a fantasy surprise this year and beyond? Let's break it down.

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RJ Harvey Prospect Profile

RJ Harvey took a rather circuitous and unique path to potential NFL starting RB. He was a dual-threat QB in high school and committed to Virginia as a quarterback, but swapped to running back when he transferred to UCF in 2020. He was all but invisible that season, and then missed all of 2021 with a torn ACL. Upon returning to the field in 2022, Harvey started an impressive stretch of production that ultimately resulted in 637 touches, 4,509 scrimmage yards, and 47 scrimmage touchdowns over the next three seasons, including a conference-high 25 scores in 2024. He hit 1,400+ rushing yards and 16+ rushing touchdowns in both 2023 and 2024, becoming the first Power-Five running back to do so in multiple seasons since Breece Hall in 2020-2021.

Incidentally, the last backs to do it before Hall were Jonathan Taylor and Travis Etienne in 2018-2019. A total of 31 FBS running backs had 200+ carries last season — Harvey finished second in yards per carry (6.8) and 10-yard runs (54), tied for third in rushing touchdowns (22), fourth in breakaway rate (52.4%), and sixth in yards per route run (1.39). The only back to rank higher in yards per carry or 10-yard runs was Ashton Jeanty.

He plays much tougher than his size — 5-foot-8, 205 pounds — running through would-be tacklers at a baffling rate, thanks in large part to excellent contact balance. He's also quick, decisive, and smart behind the line, bouncing runs to the right hole in an instant, which helped make him dangerous in the wildcat near the goal line. And he showed out at the combine, running a 4.40 flat and logging a 38-inch vertical jump. Aspects of his athletic profile and his game as a whole are very reminiscent of Chase Brown's, and many had Harvey tagged as the "Brown of the 2025 class" before the draft (myself included).

This isn't to say Harvey's profile is perfect. It's rare to see a back of his size be consistently great for fantasy, though exceptions like Austin Ekeler, Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyren Williams, and Devonta Freeman do exist. While Harvey's tape and analytics suggest he can be a solid pass-catcher, he never crested 25 catches in a college season, and his pass-blocking is ... potentially horrible. Of the 270 college running backs with 40+ pass-blocking snaps last season, Harvey's 21.8 PFF grade ranks, unironically, dead last. If he can't improve in that respect, he may never see the field on third down, which would severely cap his upside in dynasty.

Still, after Denver selected him in the second round, Harvey has quickly become a dynasty darling, jumping from the back end of the second round of rookie drafts to right around the one-two turn. But could that hype hit as early as this season, and what is the rookie's upside in this Broncos offense?

Harvey in the Broncos Offense

Entering the 2025 NFL Draft, there were a few lucrative landing spots for rookie running backs: the Raiders were an obvious choice to pick Ashton Jeanty, but the Cowboys, Bears, and Browns were all pretty intriguing in their own right. However, it was the Broncos that offered the most highly prized opportunity, and I don't know that it was particularly close. For one, their depth chart is a wasteland: neither fifth-round pick Audric Estime nor undrafted free agent Jaleel McLaughlin poses any real threat for starter snaps. For another, they have one of the best offensive lines in the league after returning all five starters in Garett Bolles, Ben Powers, Luke Wattenberg, Quinn Meinerz, and Mike McGlinchey.

Denver ranked 11th in PFF's run-blocking grade last season, but after a full year together and reinforcements elsewhere on the offense, that rank should climb in 2025. And lastly, with Bo Nix impressing as a rookie, Sean Payton at head coach, and Joe Lombardi at OC, the offensive upside and scheme are very encouraging. As a reminder, Lombardi was the coordinator in Los Angeles in both 2021 and 2022 ... when undersized fantasy stud Austin Ekeler finished as the RB2 overall and the RB1 overall, respectively.

Given their draft capital investment in Harvey, the odds are very high that Payton and Lombardi will give him the first crack at the RB1 role in Denver. McLaughlin will likely still see some work as a change of pace back — maybe a third of the opportunities — but there's little reason Harvey can't claim the majority of running back touches on this roster. Anyone holding out hope for McLauglin or Estime as breakout backs can wave goodbye to those dreams, barring something drastic. Last season, Javonte Williams maintained the starting role for most of the year despite gross inefficiency, totaling 209 opportunities to McLaughlin's 140. That should be the absolute floor for Harvey, with a median closer to 250 opportunities and a ceiling near 300. And if this offense takes a step forward from 2024, when they ranked 10th in scoring and 19th in yards, that kind of running back share could put Harvey squarely in the RB2 conversation.

Projecting Harvey's Fantasy Value

Using the 250 opportunities as a target range for Harvey — roughly 200 carries and 50 targets — a median fantasy season would be somewhere around 185-190 half-PPR fantasy points. In most seasons, that would be good for a fantasy finish in the back half of RB2 range, almost exactly where second-round Broncos rookie Javonte Williams finished in 2021 (albeit under a different regime). For a player with Harvey's pre-draft grades, that's an ideal scenario. But it's surprisingly realistic. In fact, in this scheme, with this line ahead of him and his prospect profile, I'd wager Harvey is more likely to threaten for RB1 range than he is to bust out into RB3 range or worse.

Admittedly, he's a little riskier a pick than, say, James Conner, David Montgomery, or fellow rookie Quinshon Judkins — the three backs going right ahead of Harvey in current Underdog ADP. Those guys have more established roles, prototypical RB1 size, or both. But still, that currently puts Harvey at RB24 ... more or less the bottom of my projected range of outcomes in half-PPR scoring. And, importantly, it also puts him right around the question-mark tier of WR4s like Jerry Jeudy, Jakobi Meyers, Jayden Reed, and George Pickens. I'd much rather have Mike Evans and Harvey than Breece Hall and Pickens, so having the Broncos rookie on my watch list in the sixth or seventh round feels like a major win. I'll be drafting him early and often in best ball, dynasty, and standard redraft leagues.

The Bottom Line

• RJ Harvey is an intriguing running back prospect who combats less-than-ideal size with toughness, speed, and an exquisite production profile. The Broncos may have reached a little to pick him at 60th overall, but if anything, that show of faith is encouraging.
• Harvey joins an ascending Broncos offense, led by Sean Payton, Joe Lombardi, Bo Nix, and an elite offensive line, that earned my pre-draft label as the best RB landing spot in the league. With little competition on the depth chart and a historic precedent for fantastic fantasy seasons by both Payton and Lombardi's backs, Harvey has a clear road to RB2 production in 2025.
• At RB24 on Underdog, Harvey is priced more or less at the bottom of my projected range of outcomes for his rookie season. Barring injury or disaster, he should meet or exceed that ADP with ease and could threaten for RB1 upside if things go well in year one.