Free Agency Aftermath: Underdog Fantasy Football ADP Risers & Fallers

Mar 27, 2024
Free Agency Aftermath: Underdog ADP Risers & Fallers

The NFL legal tampering period began on March 11 and with a ton of movement, fantasy football values were sure to change. With more than two weeks of best ball drafts since the tampering period opened, we can examine how Underdog ADP has shifted by comparing ADP data from March 10 to March 27.

More Free Agency Fallout: Free Agency Winners & Losers | Player Profiles | NFL Mock Draft 2.0 | Never-Too-Early Rankings

Underdog ADP Risers


Notable QB ADP Risers, 3/10–3/27
Player Pos Team ADP Change, 3/10–3/27 Current ADP Positional ADP 4for4 Positional Rank
Will Levis QB Tennessee Titans +22 168.3 25 28
Kirk Cousins QB Atlanta Falcons +15 122.0 17 12
Gardner Minshew QB Las Vegas Raiders +14 225.6 32 41
Bryce Young QB Carolina Panthers +11 190.5 28 29
Russell Wilson QB Pittsburgh Steelers +11 195.9 30 24

Will Levis, Titans

No team has made more changes so far this offseason than the Titans. With Brian Callahan in as the new head coach, Tennessee let Derrick Henry walk while adding wide receiver Calvin Ridley and a great pass-catching running back in Tony Pollard.

Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins form one of the better wide receiver duos in football while there’s still a chance that Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo could make some noise in their young careers. There are no Titans currently being drafted in the top 60 picks on Underdog, making Levis and Co. intriguing for cheap best ball stacks.

Kirk Cousins, Falcons

The Raheem Morris era in Atlanta will begin with a new-look offense led by Kirk Cousins and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. Cousins is one of the most efficient passers in recent history and his presence should elevate the entire passing game. Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson figure to dominate looks from Cousins with 36% of targets from last season vacated. ADPs on the pass-catchers might get out of hand this summer but Cousins looks like one of the better positional values in early best ball drafts, even with his recent ADP spike.

Running Backs

Notable RB ADP Risers, 3/10–3/27
Player Pos Team ADP Change, 3/10–3/27 Current ADP Positional ADP 4for4 Positional Rank
Gus Edwards RB Los Angeles Chargers +61 125.3 39 32
Zack Moss RB Cincinnati Bengals +53 110.3 34 31
Rico Dowdle RB Dallas Cowboys +37 170.4 52 61
Alexander Mattison RB Las Vegas Raiders +33 205.9 62 81
Zamir White RB Las Vegas Raiders +26 102.1 31 25
Joe Mixon RB Houston Texans +25 65.7 16 21
Josh Jacobs RB Green Bay Packers +22 37.1 10 9
Antonio Gibson RB New England Patriots +21 168.6 51 45
Derrick Henry RB Baltimore Ravens +19 42.1 11 10
Devin Singletary RB NY Giants +19 114.8 36 33
D'Andre Swift RB Chicago Bears +15 89.6 26 17

Gus Edwards, Chargers

So far in 2024, the Chargers have hired Jim Harbaugh as head coach, Greg Roman as offensive coordinator, and let their two best pass-catchers sign elsewhere. All signs point to a run-heavy team in LA and with Austin Ekeler out of town, 230 backfield touches are up for grabs. Pending any changes during this year’s NFL Draft, Gus Edwards is in line to absorb 200+ touches. If the Chargers don’t add a significant name in the backfield, Edwards figures to be an RB2/flex-type player with some spike weeks sprinkled in.

Zack Moss, Bengals

Cincinnati traded Joe Mixon and signed Zack Moss, presumably to lead the Bengals backfield while Chase Brown sees an expanded role in 2024. As John Paulsen recently noted:

“In the eight games where Moss played at least half the snaps, he averaged 20.9 touches for 94 yards (4.12 yards per carry), and 0.63 touchdowns. The resulting 14.7 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) would have been the eighth-highest last year (ahead of David Montgomery and just behind Jahmyr Gibbs).”

While Moss may not be a 70% touch share back, he will have significant upside playing alongside Joe Burrow.

Joe Mixon, Texans

The public is bullish on Joe Mixon despite his wide range of outcomes. Mixon is coming off of a relatively inefficient 2023 and is entering his age-28 season but adds a pass-catching element that Houston lacked last season while stepping into a role with 266 vacated touches. This move relegates Dameon Pierce to a late-round dart throw while there’s still a chance that the Texans add a running back in April’s Draft.

Wide Receivers

Notable WR ADP Risers, 3/10–3/27
Player Pos Team ADP Change, 3/10–3/27 Current ADP Positional ADP 4for4 Positional Rank
Darnell Mooney WR Atlanta Falcons +62 155.4 70 74
Curtis Samuel WR Buffalo Bills +50 130.7 59 50
Noah Brown WR Houston Texans +43 188.8 80 73
Marquise Brown WR Kansas City Chiefs +40 70.1 39 39
Joshua Palmer WR Los Angeles Chargers +24 146.5 67 68
Diontae Johnson WR Carolina Panthers +18 77.3 43 33
Gabe Davis WR Jacksonville Jaguars +16 123.6 55 52
Mike Williams WR NY Jets +14 100.4 49 41
Quentin Johnston WR Los Angeles Chargers +14 139.5 63 79
Marvin Mims WR Denver Broncos +14 146.2 66 82
Drake London WR Atlanta Falcons +13 22.3 14 18
George Pickens WR Pittsburgh Steelers +9 53.1 32 27

Marquise Brown, Chiefs

Marquise Brown is coming off of arguably the worst year of his career, at least from an efficiency standpoint, but will now be catching passes from the best quarterback in the league. Brown will have to compete with Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice for targets but we haven’t seen what this offense could be with three bona fide targets. Hollywood is ranked outside the WR3 tier by both 4for4 and ADP but will be one of the few players drafted that late with true week-winning upside anytime he is in your lineup.

Diontae Johnson, Panthers

There is arguably no wide receiver with a wider range of outcomes than Diontae Johnson—in 2022, Johnson’s 8.1 half-PPR points per game were the lowest ever for a wide receiver with at least 140 targets but he also has a chance to lead the league in targets in 2024. It’s easy to say that Johnson will struggle with Bryce Young throwing him the ball but new Panthers head coach Dave Canales had a hand in turning around both Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. With a positional ranking eight spots higher than his positional ADP, Johnson’s risk is more than baked in.

Drake London, Falcons

We know that London is an instant winner with a new coaching staff and new quarterback but the public’s knee-jerk reaction may be a bit too extreme. Paulsen notes that “Falcons’ receivers could be looking at a 31% increase in fantasy points” but London’s current WR14 ADP is leaving little-to-no meat on the bone—he is 4for4’s WR18

Tight Ends

Notable TE ADP Risers, 3/10–3/27
Player Pos Team ADP Change, 3/10–3/27 Current ADP Positional ADP 4for4 Positional Rank
Jonnu Smith TE Miami Dolphins +36 174.9 22 -
Kyle Pitts TE Atlanta Falcons +19 66.9 6 8
Hunter Henry TE New England Patriots +19 174.2 21 17
Noah Fant TE Seattle Seahawks +18 198.2 26 31
Dalton Schultz TE Houston Texans +8 115.5 13 13

Jonnu Smith, Dolphins

There’s a good chance Jonnu Smith is everyone’s “better in best ball” pick of 2024. Smith often out-targeted Kyle Pitts in Atlanta last season (how much of that was warranted is up for debate) and has an opportunity to be the number three option in an offense that can drop 50+ points in any given week. This iteration of the Dolphins' offense hasn’t shown that it cares much for a third option but as the 22nd tight end off the board, Smith is worth an add to rosters already with Tua Tagovialoa or as a Week 17 game stack option once we know the schedule.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons

Much like it did for London, the Kirk Cousins signing shot Kyle Pitts up to the no-man’s-land portion of the draft. Cousins’ elevated play may have put Pitts around TE7 territory last season but he is being drafted as the TE6 in 2024. Pitts, however, could see a spike in targets after averaging fewer than six per game last season and only exceeding 10 targets in a game once.

Underdog ADP Fallers


Notable QB ADP Fallers, 3/10–3/27
Player Pos Team ADP Change, 3/10–3/27 Current ADP Positional ADP 4for4 Positional Rank
Justin Fields QB Pittsburgh Steelers -60 150.4 22 32
Daniel Jones QB NY Giants -16 209.2 31 27
Justin Herbert QB Los Angeles Chargers -15 108.0 13 20

Justin Herbert, Chargers

The Chargers lost Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett this offseason after hiring two of the most run-happy offensive coaches in football. The hope is that the Chargers land a difference-making pass-catcher in the Draft but even then, Quentin Johnston showed little promise in his rookie season and Joshua Palmer is a role player. We usually want to buy ADP dips but Herbert has sadly tumbled to the QB20 in 4for4’s rankings.

Running Backs

Notable RB ADP Fallers, 3/10–3/27
Player Pos Team ADP Change, 3/10–3/27 Current ADP Positional ADP 4for4 Positional Rank
Roschon Johnson RB Chicago Bears -40 167.1 50 44
Tyjae Spears RB Tennessee Titans -33 101.2 30 36
Khalil Herbert RB Chicago Bears -33 177.7 54 39
Ty Chandler RB Minnesota Vikings -29 149.6 44 38
Brian Robinson RB Washington Commanders -16 103.9 32 19

Roshchon Johnson & Khalil Herbert, Bears

D'Andre Swift to Chicago was one of the bigger dominoes to fall as far as the impact on a single depth chart. Swift got a bump in value while Roshchon Johnson and Khalil Herbert saw their ADPs plummet. The lead back role for the Bears is especially appealing with Justin Fields now in Pittsburgh since Fields won’t be stealing rushing opportunities. Swift overcame a similar obstacle with Jalen Hurt last year and still had the best season of his career. The new Bear looks like an easy value as he is still being drafted outside the RB2 ranks.

Tyjae Spears, Titans

After Tennessee let Derrick Henry walk, there was hope in the fantasy community that Tyjae Spears would get first crack at starting duties in Tennessee. The signing of Tony Pollard put a lid on that as it figures to be a split backfield in an offense that looks like it might want to focus more on the passing game. Even with his ADP dip, Spears may still be overvalued as 4for4 barely has him in the RB3 conversation.

Wide Receivers

Notable WR ADP Fallers, 3/10–3/27
Player Pos Team ADP Change, 3/10–3/27 Current ADP Positional ADP 4for4 Positional Rank
Treylon Burks WR Tennessee Titans -40 226.3 95 84
Elijah Moore WR Cleveland Browns -28 206.7 85 58
Khalil Shakir WR Buffalo Bills -14 129.8 58 75
Adam Thielen WR Carolina Panthers -12 165.9 73 56
Wan'Dale Robinson WR NY Giants -12 170.8 75 60
Jordan Addison WR Minnesota Vikings -11 65.5 38 35

Treylon Burks, Titans

Treylon Burks was already a dart throw at best but now his is nothing more than a last-round stab to finish Titans onslaughts—otherwise, he is undraftable. The third wide receiver behind two teammates being drafted in the top 75 is rarely going to offer much without injuries to the starters.

Elijah Moore, Browns

The first notable move of free agency actually happened before the tampering period began when the Broncos traded Jerry Jeudy to the Browns. Cleveland then extended Jeudy with a $58 million contract with $41 million guaranteed. That contract suggests that Jeudy will usurp Elijah Moore as the Browns’ WR2, relegating Moore to the fourth option behind Jeudy, Amari Cooper, and David Njoku. In an offense led by Deshaun Watson, who struggled mightily in 2023, Moore is a fantasy afterthought on all but the deepest Cleveland stacks.

Tight Ends

Notable TE ADP Fallers, 3/10–3/27
Player Pos Team ADP Change, 3/10–3/27 Current ADP Positional ADP 4for4 Positional Rank
Tucker Kraft TE Green Bay Packers -14 213.5 29 16
T.J. Hockenson TE Minnesota Vikings -11 120.5 14 10
Cole Kmet TE Chicago Bears -10 131.4 15 15
Luke Musgrave TE Green Bay Packers -10 148.8 17 21

T.J. Hockenson, Vikings

With all the hype surrounding Cousins to the Falcons, there is equal worry in Minnesota with Cousins’ departure. Justin Jefferson will still get his because he’s Justin Jefferson but for now, the Vikings only have Sam Darnold and hope to get the fourth-best quarterback in the draft. Hockenson is a TE1 talent but is in a TE2 situation.

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