How Joe Mixon to the Texans Impacts Fantasy Football
It was originally reported that the Bengals would release Joe Mixon following the signing of Zack Moss but he was indeed dealt to Houston with the terms yet to be disclosed. After seven seasons in Cincinnati, Mixon will get a fresh start in an up-and-coming powerhouse offense.
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Joe Mixon’s Career
Mixon played 97 games with the Bengals over seven seasons and was the starter in 88 of them. He eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards four times on his way to a total of 6,412 yards, with 49 touchdowns and 4.1 average yards per carry. The 27-year-old also posted 283 catches for 2,139 yards and 13 scores via the air.
Fantasy-wise, Mixon has been a silent producer, never a top-ranked back come draft time but almost always in the RB1 conversation at the end of the season. In his seven seasons as a pro, we’ve seen five fantasy RB1 performances in half-PPR points per contest, with one of those outliers being 2017, his first season and a non-starter for the Bengals. Mixon has consistently handled a heavy load, particularly over the last three seasons, and has landed in a place where he should continue to see high volume in an ascending offense.
Joe Mixon’s Impact in Houston
Devin Singletary was the leading rusher for the Texans last year and is now a member of the New York Giants. There are 266 touches available from last season, which is 57.3% of Houston’s backfield opportunities. One would think that their overall rushing attack will strengthen with Mixon on board, as the Texans were 23rd in the NFL in ground yards per game with just 96.8.
While Mixon’s efficiency wasn’t stellar in 2023 - .02 in rushing yards over expected per attempt, and six rushing yards over expected - he was neutral in those categories which was more efficient than fellow top fantasy picks Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, and Tony Pollard.
Singletary ended last year as the RB39 in half-PPR points per game but we can’t compare these two as 1v1 situation. Mixon should be Houston’s go-to at the goal line, as Dameon Pierce hasn’t exactly thrived from short yardage out. In his two years in the league, Pierce has just five touchdowns in 18 attempts from inside the five-yard line, while Mixon crossed the pylon 12 times from there in that time frame.
Mixon should also be more involved in the passing game for the Texans than last year’s RB room. Singletary saw 38 targets in 2023 to Pierce’s 17, while Mixon has averaged 50 per season throughout his career. As a Bengal, his yards after catch per reception last year was 8.9 which was 13th among RBs with at least 30 targets, and new OC Bobby Slowik could lean more on Mixon on passing downs.
Adding a veteran versatile back just enhances what this Houston team has cooking. They already had a fantasy QB1 in C.J. Stroud, two WR2s in Nico Collins and Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz ranked as a borderline TE1, and now Mixon is on the roster as a solid RB2.
Fantasy Outlook and Fallout
Until we see if Houston decides to draft a rookie RB in April to possibly take over on third downs, Mixon should be selected as an RB2. He’ll have the opportunity to produce in various ways and if he maintains the lead-back role throughout the offseason, his ADP could spike much higher than the 8.02 spot where he is currently leaving Underdog boards (RB26), perhaps up to the fourth or fifth round. The 27-year-old should get slight a bump in the coming weeks just based on the now certainty of playing spot in 2024.
Pierce is 4for4’s RB49 in the early rankings and is leaving Underdog draft boards as the RB59 in the 17th round. As for the Bengals, Moss is in RB3 territory but could be a sneaky Zero-RB candidate in 2024 on this Joe Burrow-led offense. We can’t forget about sophomore Chase Brown who was productive enough in limited time last season to compete for a backfield split. For now, he should be drafted as a fantasy RB4.
Bottom Line
- Joe Mixon was traded to an offense on the rise, with a highly talented rookie under center and plenty of pieces to garner success.
- While he’ll be 28 at the start of the 2024 season, Mixon has plenty of tread on those tires and has proven he can handle a large volume of work both via ground and air. With 266 touches up for grabs, he should be given the chance to keep it rolling.
- Consider Mixon a solid RB2 with potential for borderline RB1 production if the Texans don’t add another rusher in the 2024 NFL Draft. He’s RB21 in our rankings with an Underdog ADP of 8.02. Dameon Pierce gets relegated to a late-round stab in best ball and is likely undraftable in redraft formats.
- Zack Moss will take over the Bengals’ backfield in some sort of touch share with Chase Brown. Moss is 4for4’s RB32 with Brown currently ranked as the RB45. Their Underdog ADPs are RB42 and RB32, respectively, but expect those two to flip-flop after free agency.
