Fantasy Football: Post NFL Draft ADP Risers & Fallers

May 06, 2024
Post NFL Draft ADP Risers & Fallers

With Best Ball Mania V and other small dog lobbies in full swing on Underdog, and other sites also filling best ball drafts more frequently, the bi-monthly ADP risers and fallers article is back. The NFL Draft ended just over a week ago, so most, if not all, changes in draft value are courtesy of rookies' landing spots.

Let’s take a look at the biggest risers and fallers at each position over the last week in Underdog drafts, by comparing players’ ADP from April 29th to May 6th. I’ll go position by position to tease out any relevant players’ spikes or slides over the past week.


QB Risers

Jayden Daniels, Commanders (ADP: 115.2, -11.8)

No QB has made a bigger jump in ADP since the NFL Draft than rookie Jayden Daniels. Last year's Heisman Trophy Winner, Daniels is a dual threat upside QB, which perenially provides a boost in draft value for fantasy managers. Washington HC Dan Quinn hasn't committed to the rookie starting in 2024, but Daniels should be able to beat out Marcus Mariota for the gig.

The LSU product will operate in Kliff Kingsbury’s horizontal raid offense and with Terry McLaurin, Austin Ekeler, Brian Robinson, and his own mobility, Daniels is in the fantasy football conversation right away. He has risen a full round since being selected No. 2 overall and is currently being drafted as QB14 at spot 10.07.

Caleb Williams, Bears (ADP: 94.2, -9.8)

This near full-round jump is a bit surprising, considering Caleb Williams to the Bears at pick No. 1 was a near lock for weeks, even months, leading up to the 2024 NFL Draft. He inherits a solid WR room with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and fellow rookie Rome Odunze which isn't usually the case for a QB drafted so high. C.J. Stroud showed us in 2023 that the learning curve for rookie QBs isn't as steep as it used to be, and Williams has the skills and surrounding pieces to be a fantasy QB1 in his first year in the NFL.

For more on the 22-year-old's fit with the Bears, check out Justin Edwards' profile on Williams.

QB Fallers

Drake Maye, Patriots (ADP: 178.4, +26.4)

Drake Maye dropping over two full rounds in just seven days is more about the landing spot than the player. Not only did the former Tarheel get drafted into arguably one of the worst offenses in the NFL, but veteran Jacoby Brissett will be difficult competition for playing time. Even with a decent rushing floor, it's tough to see Maye as anything more than a best ball or Superflex QB2 with very little, if any, redraft value.

Right now, the rookie is leaving Underdog boards as the QB24 at pick 15.11.

Justin Fields, Steelers (ADP: 189.7, +22.7)

One day before the NFL Draft, it was reported that the Steelers were not going to pick up the fifth-year option for Justin Fields, making him a free agent in 2025. HC Mike Tomlin did say back in March that Russell Wilson was in the "pole position" for the starting QB job, but anything can happen leading up to the start of the 2024 NFL season.

Right now, Fields is still being drafted ahead of Wilson in early Underdog drafts, with the former Bear the QB27 and Wilson leaving boards as the QB31. It will be interesting to see how their draft values and QB competition play out this summer.

Running Backs

RB Risers

Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys (ADP: 132.8. -73.2)

Two days after the 2024 NFL Draft, Dallas went back to the well with free agent Ezekiel Elliott by signing him to a one-year contract. Elliot rose an incredible six full rounds since re-becoming a Cowboy and is now the RB40 as a late-11th rounder. Elliott is coming off a strong season in New England and ended as the RB28 through the final four weeks with Rhamondre Stevenson on the shelf.

He should have the chance to lead the Dallas backfield unless Rico Dowdle overtakes him with an impressive performance throughout the summer. Dowdle was also among the top RB risers last week, thanks to the Cowboys passing on a rusher in the NFL Draft. Either way, Dowdle is still draftable at ADP (RB43), and Elliott remains fantasy-relevant via the passing game and will likely continue to climb in ADP in the weeks ahead, settling as an RB3/4.

Kimani Vidal, Chargers (ADP: 170.3, -45.7)

The landing spot in LA is decent as there isn't a clear lead back right now for the Chargers, which is likely why Kimani Vidal shot up close to four rounds over the course of a week. However, he'll be competing for touches with former Ravens J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Vidal was second in the nation in rushing yards last season and is also a capable receiver out of the backfield.

He's still affordable as an early 15th-rounder right now in Underdog drafts as the RB53 and is worth a stab in those formats, but hasn't reached draftable status in season-long leagues until we get a better idea of how the Chargers RB room shakes out.

Zamir White, Raiders (ADP: 80.8, -20.2)

I hope you stocked up on Zamir White shares pre-draft as folks are catching on to his value. Las Vegas did not add an RB of significance last week, leaving White as the lead to inherit a large portion of the 289 available RB opportunities from 2023. The former UGA back served as the workhorse for Vegas from Weeks 15–18 last year with Jacobs on the shelf, and he averaged 23.3 touches and 114.3 yards per contest, which translated to an RB13 finish in half-PPR points per game in that timeframe.

White climbed nearly two rounds in ADP and is now being drafted as the RB21, which seems about right ahead of the start of 2024. Let's hope he stays put and doesn't raise in price in the coming weeks.

RB Fallers

Braelon Allen, Jets (ADP: 204, +44)

A brutal landing spot in New York sent Braelon Allen's ADP into a near four-round tailspin. Firmly behind Breece Hall, Allen has little to no stand-alone value and shouldn't be in the fantasy conversation in redraft formats. With a current ADP bordering on the final round in best ball, he's nothing more than a dart throw in the hopes he has an impactful week or two.

Chuba Hubbard, Panthers (ADP: 157.4, +27.4)

Hubbard himself did nothing wrong, but the Panthers traded up to select rookie Jonathon Brooks at pick No. 46 overall. Brooks is coming off an ACL tear but has the makings to lead the Carolina backfield when he steps into the role, which is reportedly on track.

Hubbard still has fantasy value but is more of an RB4/5 as opposed to his pre-draft RB3 value. Brooks is now being drafted just outside of RB2 range as the RB28 in Underdog formats, but will likely climb as he starts to prove healthy ahead of the 2024 season.

Broncos RBs Not Named Javonte Williams (Audric Estime ADP: 205.8, +20.8, Jaleel McLaughlin ADP: 178.3, +20.3)

Audric Estime landing in Denver caused a fall in ADP for both him and Jaleel McLaughlin. It seems they will cannibalize each other's volume and therefore value behind Williams in the Denver offense. It will likely take an injury for Estime to see significant playing time, but Broncos HC Sean Payton does like to use multiple backs.

I don't hate buying the dip on either in best ball formats as Estime is now a final-rounder and could come on late in the season, and McLaughlin should still have a role from the start. Neither RB is advisable in redraft leagues unless we see a clearer picture during summer camps.

Wide Receivers

WR Risers

Keon Coleman, Bills (ADP: 82.8, -55.2)

Oh, what a landing spot will do for a player's fantasy value. Since being drafted by the Bills, FSU's Keon Coleman has risen five and a half rounds to the late seventh, as the 45th WR taken in early Underdog drafts. I wrote about the rookie's upside in this player profile, and with a whopping 317 targets available from last year in the Buffalo offense, he should see ample opportunity as an outside WR for Josh Allen.

Coleman's floor is a WR4/5, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him produce as a WR3 if he can gel quickly with Allen and adjust quickly to NFL play.

Ladd McConkey, Chargers (ADP: 76.1, -36.9)

With the rumor mill placing Ladd McConkey in New England, drafters were conservative in the early stages of Underdog drafts. Now that he's a Charger, the UGA product will have an early crack at the massive 395 available targets in this offense, with Justin Herbert tossing him the ball.

As the current WR41, McConkey is being drafted as a WR4 but has plenty of upside, particularly in any type of PPR format. After climbing three full rounds, the rookie is now a seventh-round selection, but hopefully, this is where he stays, or McConkey could get too pricey. For more of my thoughts on him as a Charger this season, here's a full profile of the rookie wide receiver.

Jermaine Burton, Bengals (ADP: 162.3, -23.7)

The WR3 job in Cincinnati has been a fruitful one for fantasy football purposes, and it appears it's Jermaine Burton's from Day 1. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will continue to eat, but the Bengals have used 2WR sets less than any team other than the Rams over the past three seasons, with Tyler Boyd, who's presumably gone averaging 633 routes run per season since 2021.

Justin Edwards highlights Burton's value here, but even with a two-round rise, the rookie is still a solid pick at 14.06. Burton can crush his WR73 price tag in best ball and is one to keep an eye on this summer ahead of redraft formats.

WR Fallers

Zay Jones, FA (ADP: 213.9, +37.9)

Zay Jones was released by the Jaguars right after the 2024 NFL Draft, which caused a three-round freefall in Underdog ADP. He's visiting with the Tennessee Titans as I write this article and would gain some value there as the presumable WR3 alongside DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley.

Adonai Mitchell, Colts (ADP: 106.3, +19.3)

I don't understand the slide here, but I'm here for it. Adonai Mitchell landed in a highly underrated offense and has a shot at WR2 status behind Michael Pittman Jr. With a healthy Anthony Richardson at the helm and the chance for decent volume, Mitchell's WR51 ADP seems like his floor.

Rashee Rice, Chiefs (ADP: 65, +19.0)

The ADP fall for Rashee Rice is a combination of his expected suspension for street racing, along with the Chiefs' drafting of speedster Xavier Worthy. We've seen Rice slide 19 spots down to 6.05 with Worthy climbing 32.2 draft slots up to 6.02, with both KC wideouts now in the same range. They may flip-flop as the offseason progresses, but in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, Rice and Worthy should be considered WR3s with plenty of upside.

Tight Ends

TE Risers

Ben Sinnott, Commanders (ADP: 164.7, -51.3)

By far the largest TE riser since the 2024 NFL Draft, Ben Sinnott rose over four full rounds and is now the 20th TE leaving Underdog draft boards. With Logan Thomas no longer in Washington, Sinnott's landing spot is a desirable one, as there are 79 TE targets (64.2%) up for grabs with just 33-year-old Zach Ertz to compete with in the room.

The Commanders are a new-look offense but if Jayden Daniels gets this team humming, Sinnott could prove fantasy relevance in his first year in the NFL. He shouldn't be in consideration in redraft leagues but makes for a nice late-round stab in best ball formats.

Tyler Conklin, Jets (ADP: 185, -10.0)

The double-digit bump for Tyler Conklin is more about who the Jets didn't draft than Conkin's perceived value. UGA TE Brock Bowers was heavily linked to New York prior to the draft, and with Conklin back to TE1 status for the Jets, he's risen up to fantasy TE2 territory as Underdog's TE24. There are plenty of weapons for Aaron Rodgers in 2024, so expectations should still be tempered down to best-ball-only value for Conklin.

TE Fallers

Las Vegas Raiders TEs (Michael Mayer ADP: 210, +54, Brock Bowers ADP: 91.7, + 14.7)

Michael Mayer fell 54 spots in just one week thanks to rookie Brock Bowers entering the mix as a Raider. The sophomore TE will likely be relegated to mostly blocking duties, considering the first-round NFL Draft capital spent on Bowers. As far as Bowers goes, his 14-spot slide is likely the result of his landing spot's QB situation and the fact that he was being drafted very high in early Underdog leagues (TE9).

The former Bulldog will presumably be second in targets behind Davante Adams, with 133 available from last year in a likely more pass-happy offense without Josh Jacobs. Let's hope this fall continues as I'll be buying Bowers all offseason, particularly if he keeps on sliding.

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