Keon Coleman's Fantasy Outlook in Buffalo Offers Plenty of Upside

Apr 30, 2024
Keon Coleman's Fantasy Outlook in Buffalo Offers Plenty of Upside

After trading out of Round 1 twice, the Buffalo Bills selected WR Keon Coleman with the first pick of the second round (33rd overall). The former Spartan and Seminole will join a revamped pass-catching corps that lost both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, among others, this offseason.

I could write this entire article on his personality, as he’s been a delight to watch in his first few days in the league, but I’ll try to stick to fantasy football. Well, maybe one video of him acting like a Pop Warner kid inside his first NFL stadium to start us off.

Ok, I lied, here’s another as Coleman gets a tour of the Bills’ facility.

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Keon Coleman the Prospect

Coleman began his career at Michigan State for two seasons before transferring to FSU in 2023. His best statistical output was as a Spartan in 2022, where he posted a 58-798-7 line, notably leading the offense above then-senior Jayden Reed. Last year, he was part of an undefeated season in Tallahassee, where he once again led the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Coleman is athletic for his large frame (6’4, 213lbs), which aided in his 18 trips to the end zone over the past two years despite not eclipsing 800 yards in either season.

The combination of stature and ball skills gives Coleman the potential to be a downfield and red-zone weapon in his new home in Buffalo.

How Keon Coleman Fits with the Bills

Buffalo lost four of their five highest-producing WRs from 2023 to free agency and trades, leaving a whopping 317 targets available, with only Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Mack Hollins as key additions. The rookie will likely slide right in as the starting outside WR opposite Curtis Samuel and command a decent share of targets. Gabe Davis averaged 5.5 targets per game over the last two years in Buffalo but was rarely, if ever, on the field without Stefon Diggs. With Diggs now in Texas, his 9.5 targets per game from 2022-2023 will also be redistributed, leaving presumably a floor of at least seven balls per contest for the rookie.

The Bills boast plenty of pass-catchers in the middle of the field including WR Khalil Shakir and TE Dalton Kincaid, but there’s clearly an immediate role for Coleman on the outside. Let’s hope Buffalo does a little rearranging in their red-zone approach, as Coleman’s large catch radius and mismatch potential could serve fantasy managers well.

How to Approach the Bills Offense for Fantasy Football

Josh Allen is still Josh Allen and should be drafted as one of the first QBs off the board, regardless of format. He gets a young, hungry WR who’s already scoring imaginary touchdowns.

Coleman’s floor in such a potent offense is that of a WR4/5 but he has plenty of upside and has the potential to finish in the Top-25 conversation if he can take quickly to the NFL and develop chemistry with Allen. His current Underdog ADP is WR52 at pick 9.11. In redraft formats, he should be drafted as a WR4 or flex option.

Samuel and Shakir are also leaving boards in that same WR4/5 range right now, with their ADPs sitting at 9.01 and 10.11, respectively, in early Underdog drafts. Both WRs are in the redraft conversation as bench depth or bye-week fill-ins.

Kincaid will still have his middle-of-the-field role and projects as a fantasy TE1 within the top-7 at his position. His current best ball ADP is a tad steep as TE5 at pick 5.07.

Bottom Line

  • Keon Coleman is technically a second-round pick but landed in a wonderful spot for fantasy purposes and could outperform those WRs taken before him.
  • With 317 targets available from 2023 and an immediate role on the outside, Coleman has the floor of a WR4/5 (Underdog ADP: WR52) but boasts a ton of upside to finish the season much higher in the WR ranks.
  • Josh Allen still has a seat at the elite QB table, and both Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir should be drafted in both best ball and redraft leagues as WR4/5 options.
  • Dalton Kinkaid’s role as a short-yardage, middle-of-the-field guy should remain intact, and he’s a Top-7 TE heading into the season in all formats but is currently a tad overpriced on Underdog as the TE5.
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