King Tuten Will (Might?) Reign Supreme in Fantasy Football

Chris Rodriguez has six career receptions. Six! Here, I can list them all out for you: one, two, three, four, five, six. That’s across three NFL seasons! Alright, that’s it from me today; hope you enjoyed it!

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The Chris Rodriguez of It All

Fineeee, I’ll write more. But really, *this* is the guy everyone is so concerned will take away work from Bhayshul Tuten? The Jaguars were always going to sign an RB this offseason. They weren’t going into the season with just Tuten and passing-down back LeQuint Allen on the roster. To me, Rodriguez was the best-case scenario of who they could bring in.

Apparently, the Jaguars were interested in signing J.K. Dobbins instead of Rodriguez. And that would’ve dinged my optimism for Tuten because Dobbins is one of the most-efficient RBs in the league whenever he’s healthy. The team’s interest in Dobbins has often been cited to temper the hopefulness for Tuten’s breakout. But I’m going to flip that and say, if head coach Liam Coen and Rodriguez are best friends from their time together at the University of Kentucky, why did they only settle for Rodriguez after missing out on Dobbins?

This is supposed to be an article on Rodriguez, right? No? Alright, I’m going to talk about Rodriguez for a little bit more anyway. Rodriguez was a Round 6 pick in the 2023 draft class. He amassed only 86 total rushing attempts in his first two NFL seasons, and was cut and resigned by the Commanders twice in 2024. I looked at the list of guys that were cut multiple times during their rookie contract. Spoiler: it’s bad.

To Rodriguez’s credit, he might be the only one of these players to sign an actual second contract. So, he’s selecting into a bucket where a lot of these previously-cut players didn’t land. And he isn’t devoid of any positives. In his only qualifying season, he was 14th in rushing yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt and 4th in Next Gen Stats’ version of success rate.

Having said that, I recently finished the Most Predictable RB Stat article, and success rate isn’t on there. That’s something that NFL coaches value more than fantasy managers. What we care about are pass catching and explosive carries. Well, you already know that Rodriguez isn’t going to look great on the receiving end. Among 45 qualifying RBs last year, Rodriguez was 42nd in yards per route run (YPRR). But Rodriguez was similarly bad in breakaway rate, ranking 32nd among that same set of RBs.

Tuten’s Small Sample Projection

Let’s actually talk about Tuten now. I led with the Rodriguez talk because…well, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows for Tuten’s profile if I’m being honest. He didn’t have enough attempts to qualify in the sample I discussed above, which in and of itself is bad. But if he did, he would’ve been even worse than Rodriguez in breakaway rate, ranking 43rd ahead of only Isiah Pacheco, Emanuel Wilson, and Chuba Hubbard. Woof.

So, the optimism for Tuten is mostly a projection. But if either of these two RBs is going to emerge in a massive way, you’d have to bet on Tuten in Year 2 compared to Rodriguez showing us something brand new in Year 4, right? Going back to Tuten’s prospect profile, he blazed at the combine with a 4.32 40-yard dash. There’s obvious potential for that breakaway rate to dramatically increase on a larger sample.

Tuten had juice in college. He was 82nd-percentile in rushing TDs per attempt and 97th-percentile in avoided tackles per attempt. And he’s flashed these strengths on a small NFL sample. If he qualified, he would’ve been 9th in avoided tackles per attempt and 2nd in touchdowns per attempt, not even including his two receiving TDs. But if I’m being fair, Rodriguez was also impressive from a TD rate standpoint, with both backs getting their average carry closer to the opponent’s endzone than almost any other RB in the league.

2026 Draft Cost

So, here’s the summary of the bull case for Tuten. We have a (theoretically) explosive RB, who has flashed a much stronger receiving profile and slightly better TD potential than his primary RB competition. There is a chance we can check all three of the boxes we care about, which are breakaway carries, receiving volume/efficiency, and touchdowns. Tuten will lose obvious 3rd-and-long snaps to Allen, but we could see a role like Chase Brown’s in Cincinnati, where we don’t care about those snaps anyway.

Unfortunately, the market is making you pay for that potential. He’s going off the board at pick 60 overall or RB25 on 4for4’s Multi-Site ADP. But boy, does RB quickly fall off a cliff once Tuten is drafted. Depending on your thoughts about Jadarian Price, Tuten might be the last RB you can really dream on for the rest of the draft. Yep, it’s *dark* at RB this year.

I think the best fit for Tuten is the drafter who is going with a later RB approach. It’s not my preferred way to play the 2026 landscape, but I still do it sometimes. You fell in love with 3 WRs and an elite TE and are sitting in Round 5 without an RB. If Tuten hits his potential, then you have the chance to lap the early RB drafters. But you have to be comfortable with the very real chance that Tuten is in a gross timeshare with Rodriguez for at least some portion of the season.

Bottom Line

• Chris Rodriguez lacks explosive runs and receiving volume/efficiency, meaning he shouldn’t stand in the way of a Bhayshul Tuten breakout.
• And we’ve seen Tuten flash excellent TD potential and much stronger receiving efficiency than Rodriguez.
• Tuten is also (theoretically) a much stronger candidate for explosive runs given his speed.
• But we’re working off an incredibly small sample here, and the market is forcing you to pay an expensive price for this potential.
• It’s a bet I’m making in certain circumstances, like when I start with three WRs and an elite TE, because there are almost no exciting RBs left on the board once Tuten is drafted.
• Ultimately, the Tuten bet is representative of your risk tolerance, because there is a very real chance this bet does not pay off.