FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Week 13 GPP Breakdown

Dec 02, 2023
Week 13 GPP Breakdown

In this space each week will be the top stacks, contrarian plays, and strategies to attack GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The backbone of our player pool is value, as highlighted by 4for4’s proprietary value metric, which goes beyond simple point-per-dollar projections. To be successful in GPPs, however, it’s essential to be unique and that can be accomplished by combining knowledge from 4for4’s suite of DFS tools including ownership projections, leverage scores, correlation, and stack values.

Even with all of these resources at our disposal, adjusting for game type is essential. For example, someone playing the Millionaire Maker shouldn’t have the same approach as someone entering a $300 single-entry contest with 150 entries. For nuanced explanations on game selection and lineup construction, be sure to check out 4for4’s DFS Strategy Hub and DFS MVP game theory segments.

Note: Many of 4for4’s value plays should be in your GPP player pool but may not necessarily be written about below. Most starters on teams with high implied totals are worthy of being rostered but players in this breakdown are those to be overweight on.

Join the 4for4 DFS subscription-only Discord channel for up-to-the-minute and Sunday morning updates.

More Week 13 DFS Strategy: Top Values and Cash Plays | WR/CB Matchups | Ownership Projections | Leverage Scores

Popular Games to Target

49ers @ Eagles (+3); O/U 48

We’re projecting Brock Purdy ($6,100 DK/$7,800 FD) to lock as the field’s favorite way to gain exposure toward this matchup in both cash games and tournaments and it makes sense: Philadelphia has leaked at least 28.4 fantasy points to three of the last four quarterbacks they’ve faced (and Patrick Mahomes would’ve joined that group if his receivers hadn’t dropped two touchdowns in primetime).

Not only is it crucial to be cognisant of how you stack Purdy in tournaments given his aforementioned ownership, but it’s equally as important to be wary of any lineups with him, Christian McCaffrey ($9,000 DK/$9,800 FD), Tyreek Hill, and Zack Moss (on DraftKings) since that core will be overlapped in every format; McCaffrey is harder to play with Hill on FanDuel, making the former a terrific option there.

For that reason, Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200 DK/$8,000 FD) and George Kittle ($6,200 DK/$7,400 FD) are my preferred teammates to bring along with Purdy. From a micro outlook, Aiyuk fits the bill against Philadelphia’s man coverage (seventh), averaging 21.3 yards per catch (ninth) and 4.16 Yards Per Route Run (third) against said scheme. Kittle makes sense from a big-picture view given that our opponents are spending down for either Juwan Johnson or Brevin Jordan (see below). The Eagles have also ceded the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Purdy’s ownership also naturally makes Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DK/$9,000 FD) an amazing contrarian play in tournaments, especially since paying up for him entails getting off of Tyreek Hill for A.J. Brown ($8,800 DK/$8,400 FD) in most builds. DeVonta Smith ($7,300 DK/$7,700 FD) can also be slid in as those two have soaked up 60% of Hurts’ targets in their last two games without Dallas Goedert (doubtful).

Broncos @ Texans (-3); O/U 47.5

It’s admittedly a rough spot for C.J. Stroud ($8,100 DK/$8,000 FD) as the Broncos have limited opposing quarterbacks (Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes included) to 6.1 yards per attempt (seventh) and the 11th-lowest explosive pass rate since Week 5. Tank Dell ($7,400 DK/$8,200 FD) is also battling through a calf injury (although he’s expected to play), logically making him a tough click.

Nico Collins ($6,800 DK/$7,600 FD) has led the Texans with a 26.9% target share around Dell’s injury the past two games if you do chase Stroud’s upside in tourneys. That approach is also one way to build a unique lineup with Brevin Jordan ($2,500 DK/$4,300 FD), who will be the highest-rostered tight end on both sites.

My concern is that it’s actually a cleaner spot on the other side for Russell Wilson ($5,700 DK/$7,400 FD) given Houston’s shoddy pass defense with 8.6 YPA and 21.3 fantasy points per game allowed (to Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, and Trevor Lawrence) over the last month.

Courtland Sutton ($5,400 DK/$6,900 FD) seamlessly fits into any Russ lineups across sites, but Jerry Jeudy ($4,700 DK/$6,000 FD) should not be ignored: the Texans have schemed zone coverage at the league’s eighth-highest rate, and it’s Jeudy who leads the Broncos with a 22% target-per-route-run rate against that look. He’s also cheap on FanDuel (where there are no confident value plays at wide receiver), provides leverage off Javonte Williams ($5,700 DK/$6,600 FD), and brings uniqueness to any lineups with Jordan.

Tournament Pivots

Dolphins @ Commanders (+9); O/U 49.5

Good luck poking any holes in Tua Tagovailoa ($7,900 DK/$8,400 FD) and Miami’s passing offense this week. The Commanders have sunk to stone-last in generating pressure without Chase Young (49ers) and Montez Sweat (Bears) over the past month, and Tua has completed 75.9% (fourth) of his passes for 9.1 YPA (third) and 20 touchdowns (second) from a clean pocket.

Tyreek Hill ($9,600 DK/$10,000 FD) takes precedence over Christian McCaffrey in every format (wherever you’re forced to choose). But keep the utmost confidence in bringing along one or two more Dolphins with Hill (regardless of whether you stack them with Tua) if only to soak up as much touchdown equity as possible from Miami’s slate-high 29.5-point team total. Jaylen Waddle ($7,600 DK/$7,800 FD), Raheem Mostert ($7,300 DK/$8,400 FD), and De'Von Achane ($6,900 DK/$7,400 FD) are all live, too, and I’m focusing on playing whoever checks in at the lowest ownership among them.

If Dolphins onslaughts become too expensive, Sam Howell ($6,200 DK/$7,500 FD) across from Miami’s receivers is another way to get creative here. Curtis Samuel ($4,100 DK/$6,200 FD) is my favorite target with him for Samuel’s most recent 27.2% target share against Dallas, seeing 67% of his targets within nine yards of the line of scrimmage for Howell to avoid sacks.

Note that the Dolphins rank sixth in pressure rate (40.6%) on the year.

Cardinals @ Steelers (-6.5); O/U 41

Anyone who has tried to build a lineup by now has run into the same problem as the rest of us: how the hell do you fit (fill in the blank)? And, for better or worse, one way to do so is by rostering Kenny Pickett ($5,100 DK/$6,700 FD) in the cleanest spot possible. Not only are the Cardinals creating a league-low 30.5% pressure rate, Pickett most recently went 24-of-27 for 10.3 YPA (second) from a clean pocket under co-coordinators Eddie Faulker and Mike Sullivan.

Diontae Johnson ($5,000 DK/$6,800 FD), Pat Freiermuth ($4,300 DK/$5,800 FD), Jaylen Warren ($5,400 DK/$6,500 FD), and Najee Harris ($5,200 DK/$7,200 FD) are also all cheap and viable with him, allowing you to allocate that excess salary elsewhere.

Greg Dortch ($3,700 DK/$5,200 FD), earning 17 targets to Rondale Moore's four the past two games, is my favorite player to run this one back with, though I'm open to Trey McBride ($4,900 DK/$6,700 FD) if only to spend up (and correlate) while the rest of the field goes down to Juwan Johnson and Brevin Jordan.

Injuries to Monitor for Tournaments

Stack Ideas

Tua Tagovailoa ($7,900 DK/$8,400 FD), Tyreek Hill ($9,600 DK/$10,000 FD), and Jaylen Waddle ($7,600 DK/$7,800 FD) OR De'Von Achane ($6,900 DK/$7,400 FD)

Tyreek Hill ($9,600 DK/$10,000 FD) and Jaylen Waddle ($7,600 DK/$7,800 FD) OR De'Von Achane ($6,900 DK/$7,400 FD)

Brock Purdy ($6,100 DK/$7,800 FD), Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200 DK/$8,000 FD), and George Kittle ($6,200 DK/$7,400 FD) + A.J. Brown ($8,800 DK/$8,400 FD)

Kenny Pickett ($5,100 DK/$6,700 FD) and Jaylen Warren ($5,400 DK/$6,500 FD) + Greg Dortch ($3,700 DK/$5,200 FD)

Russell Wilson ($5,700 DK/$7,400 FD) and Jerry Jeudy ($4,700 DK/$6,000 FD) + Brevin Jordan ($2,500 DK/$4,300 FD)

David Montgomery ($6,500 DK/$7,800 FD) and Lions Defense ($3,000 DK/$4,300 FD)

Contrarian and Leverage Plays

GPP Player Pool

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