Fantasy Football: ADP Risers & Fallers (June 19th- July 3rd)
There’s not much happening in the NFL right now outside of suspensions for gambling and the rumor mill. You’d think ADP would not have changed much over the last few weeks, but conversely, there has been some significant movement.
Let’s take a look at the biggest risers and fallers at each position over the last 14 days in Underdog drafts, by comparing players’ ADP from June 19th to July 3rd. I’ll go position by position to tease out any relevant players’ spikes or slides.
*All ADP is courtesy of 4for4’s Underdog ADP tool.
Quarterbacks
QB Risers
Brock Purdy, 49ers (ADP: 174.3, +10.8)
This is now Brock Purdy’s third time in a row as the top QB riser, meaning he’s jumped the most in QB ADP over the last six weeks. The 49ers signal-caller has moved up 24.7 draft spots from a mid-17th-round selection to his current 15th-round spot since May 22nd.
On June 21st, Adam Schefter told the Pat McAfee Show the starting job was Purdy’s with Sam Darnold likely in the QB2 slot which may have added to his continual ADP elevation. There was also the news via Tom Pelissero that the sophomore QB headed to Jacksonville on June 26th to throw with QB coach Will Hewlett and ortho specialist Tom Gormely, likely instilling even more confidence for fantasy players to grab Purdy as a QB2 or even QB3 for the 2023 season.
Mac Jones, Patriots (ADP: 198.9, +4.6)
The former Alabama QB has gained some steam if you can call it that in recent weeks, as there has been talk of implementing pieces of the Crimson Tide playbook used formerly by new Patriots OC Bill O’Brien during his time under Nick Saban in Tuscaloosa.
The failed coaching experiment of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge from last season has been rectified and it’s now time to see if Jones has what it takes to lead an NFL team. His pass-catching unit isn’t exactly the strongest and instead of going after DeAndre Hopkins, the Pats just extended 30-year-old DeVante Parker to a three-year deal worth up to a whopping $33 million.
While Jones’ ADP is still very affordable in the 17th round, he’s still a QB3 at best for fantasy purposes.
Other QB Risers: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (ADP: 91.9, +5.6), Kyler Muray, Cardinals (ADP: 165.4, +3, Sam Howell, Commanders (ADP: 194.6, +2.8)
QB Fallers
Trey Lance, 49ers (ADP: 211.1, -12.9)
There’s only one significant QB faller over the last 14 days, as Trey Lance continues to slide in all formats. With Purdy on track for recovery and no trade materializing for Lance, at this point, he could be the QB3 for San Francisco this season.
Lance is now a final-round stab in Underdog drafts and could be worth a sprinkle or two—particularly in Superflex formats—in case the injury bug rears its head in the 49er QB room at any point in 2023.
Running Backs
RB Risers
Kenneth Gainwell, Eagles (ADP: 171.6, +11.4)
In the 2022 postseason, Philly phased out Miles Sanders while Kenneth Gainwell carried the ball 33 times across their three playoff contests after seeing just 53 carries through 17 games of the regular season. His 181 playoff rushing yards were third behind just Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco, and the 24-year-old’s yards per carry jumped to 5.5 from 4.5.
This mini-breakout is an excellent sign of what could be but there are two very competent backs in the way in D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny. Both RBs have had trouble staying on the field so Gainwell is still an excellent choice to outproduce his current 15th-round ADP if anything were to happen to either RB. The Eagles also have the top-ranked offensive line in the league which sure helps Gainwell’s value.
Pierre Strong Jr., Patriots (ADP: 199.3, +7.7)
A beat report on Patriots.com from 6/26 indicated that Pierre Strong Jr. was on the “James White track” and that the sophomore RB “could complement Stevenson as the lightning to Rhamondre's thunder”. Strong is a bargain in the 17th round - particularly in any PPR-type format - compared to Steveson’s third-round cost. However, be sure to keep an eye on Ty Montgomery who is currently listed as the RB2 on the Patriots depth chart, but is listed as a WR on Underdog. If he does vulture a decent amount of work from Strong, Ty Mont has cheat code written all over him.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons (ADP: 204.4, +6)
After a breakout 2021 season in Year 9 of his NFL career, Cordarrelle Patterson regressed last year, posting just 10.6 half-PPR points per game compared to 13.0 from the season prior. Now that rookie Bijan Robinson is in town to literally carry the load, it’s likely HC Arthur Smith will return Patterson to more of the pass-catching role he saw just two years ago, where he had a nice 69 targets compared to just 31 in 2022.
Right now the 32-year-old is 4for4’s RB51 and he's being selected as the RB63 in Underdog leagues at the final turn of the draft from Round 17 to 18. He has less upside than some younger backs in that territory but is still worth adding to your portfolio due to injury possibilities, however, in a full PPR redraft league, he makes for a great later-round option as bench depth.
Other RB Risers: Alexander Mattison, Vikings (ADP: 59.3, +6), Antonio Gibson, Commanders (ADP: 101.1, +6), Jaylen Warren, Steelers (ADP: 134.5, +5.4), Gus Edwards, Ravens (ADP: 185.2, +4.1)
RB Fallers
Dalvin Cook, FA (ADP: 84.7, -4.8)
Per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, the Dolphins made Dalvin Cook an offer last week that we can only infer was too low for the seven-year veteran’s liking. If he does end up in Miami that RB room becomes even more frustrating than it already is with rookie Devon Achane, Raheem Mostert, and Jeff Wilson Jr. already taking up seats in there.
The Jets are another rumored landing spot for Cook, plus there are several other teams that could be of the veteran RB’s services. For some drafters, it’s tough to click that button without knowing a landing spot, but Cook at the turn from Round 7 to Round 8 still feels like a solid deal.
Chase Brown, Bengals (ADP: 192.2, -4.4)
This is the third-straight appearance as a faller for the rookie RB, as Chase Brown fell another five spots for a 21-slot slide total over the last six weeks. Joe Mixon appears firmly planted as a Bengal, at least for now, and chatter has been positive about veteran Trayveon Williams taking on the RB2 role.
Brown will have a chance to impress once training camps resume later this month, but for now, he’s still a late-16th-round selection going ahead of Williams in Underdog drafts. Give me Williams (RB75) in the last round though, as he’s the favorite to take on the bulk of the 133 RB touches up for grabs from 2022.
Kareem Hunt, FA (ADP: 208.6, -3.9)
Despite still being unemployed with training camps opening in less than a month, Kareem Hunt is “being patient”, and “training and working hard and just staying ready” via The News-Herald.
With Cook above him in line and several other veterans waiting for jobs, drafters are just banking on talent when selecting any of the remaining free-agent backs. Hunt has fallen to the final round in Underdog drafts and boasts a 17th-round ADP in 4for4’s Multi-Site redraft tool.
Other RB Fallers: Raheem Mostert, Dolphins (ADP: 170.3, -3.7), Ezekiel Elliott, FA (ADP: 177.6, -3.6), Ty Chandler, Vikings (ADP: 194.8, -3.4)
Wide Receivers
WR Risers
Parris Campbell, Giants (ADP: 175.8, +26)
Minicamp was good to the former Colt, as Parris Campbell stood out on a roster jam-packed with WRs. He saw the highest volume during the spring practices and showcased “instant chemistry” with QB Daniel Jones. Campbell also lined up at RB which could indicate higher volume ahead in 2023.
Still a 15th-rounder, Campbell is worth the investment due to his upside in best ball formats despite climbing over Jalin Hyatt in ADP as the second NYG WR off draft boards, with Isaiah Hodgins leaving just two picks prior.
Tim Patrick, Broncos (ADP: 187.6, +17.5)
On June 28th, NFL Network’s James Palmer said multiple people believe Tim Patrick is the “best football player” in the Broncos locker room and also noted that his return from a torn ACL could be a huge boost for Russell Wilson and the Denver offense. For now, Patrick will compete with rookie Marvin Mims for the WR3 spot but if he continues to turn heads in camp, he could solidify a larger role before the season begins.
Patrick is currently the WR80 in Underdog ADP as a late-16th rounder, so grab some shares now before more people catch on to this late-round gem with the potential to hugely outproduce his draft slot.
DeVante Parker, Patriots (ADP: 205.5, +9.8)
The 30-year-old inked a three-year extension worth up to $33 million on June 28th, with $14 million of it guaranteed. That's a pretty penny for DeVante Parker who has only eclipsed 1,000 yards once in eight seasons in the NFL. Despite the decent payout, the contract is very incentive laden and actually helps them clear space under the cap for additional signings.
Parker’s extension likely caused a spike in ADP but let’s remember the former Dolphin struggled with injury and ineffectiveness in his first year in New England and has Mac Jones at the helm along with crowded WR and TE rooms.
Other WR Risers: Romeo Doubs, Packers (ADP: 122.6, +8.2), Skyy Moore, Chiefs (ADP: 113.5, +5.6), Khalil Shakir, Bills (ADP: 183.6, +5.3), Van Jefferson, Rams (ADP: 141.5, +5)
WR Fallers
Jalin Hyatt, Giants (ADP: 190.5, -25.2)
We’re continuing to see an ADP freefall for rookie Jalin Hyatt, as he’s slid down 50.9 draft spots over the last six weeks. He was working with the third team in the Giants' last minicamp and it’s looking like a big uphill climb for volume for Hyatt in the crowded New York pass-catching corps.
The former Tennessee Volunteer does boast explosiveness with big-play potential so if the rookie continues to fall which is likely, he’s worth a stab for the possible spike week or two. Hyatt is 4for4’s WR141 in half-PPR scoring and is leaving Underdog boards as the WR82.
Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants (ADP: 197.5, -18.8)
After a half-round slide two weeks ago, Wan’Dale Robinson fell another 19 spots over the last 14 days. He’s recovering from a torn ACL and it’s still unclear if the 22-year-old will be ready by Week 1.
If I haven’t stated this enough, the WR competition in New York will be stiff in 2023, as right now there are too many bodies with no alpha WR in sight. Robinson doesn’t have too much farther to fall as he is now a 17th-round selection on Underdog, so sprinkling him in amongst many best ball leagues isn’t the worst idea, but I would stay away in redraft formats.
Chase Claypool, Bears (ADP: 206.8, -11.4)
Bears HC Matt Eberflus stated that Chase Claypool was “dealing with a few things” back on June 13th, causing the WR to miss a few weeks during Chicago’s minicamp. It’s not ideal that the former Steeler missed reps with QB Justin Fields, but once healthy he is still presumably the WR3 along with D.J. Moore and Darnell Mooney in a Bears offense that threw the ball just 377 times in 2022 which was dead last.
Claypool is now a final-round dart on Underdog and one that I’m not throwing this season. His ADP in redraft leagues is currently 22.09 with better options all around him at the WR position like Parris Campbell, Josh Palmer, and Van Jefferson.
Other WR Fallers: Josh Downs, Colts (ADP: 210.3, -12.1). Rashee Rice, Chiefs (ADP: 144, -6.9), Mecole Hardman, Jets (ADP: 207.2, -5.9), John Metchie, Texans (ADP: 180, -4.8)
Tight Ends
TE Risers
Taysom Hill, Saints (ADP: 161.6, +9.8)
Another season, another year of people realizing that Taysom Hill is a late-round easter egg. Not surprisingly, Hill “worked out everywhere” in the Saints minicamp, and when asked about his role on June 15th, the 32-year-old said the hope and expectations are that his work will expand as a pass catcher in 2023.
The upside for Hill to contribute in multiple areas of the field is so juicy for fantasy purposes and despite the uptick in ADP, he’s still a smash in the 14th round as part of a late-round TE committee build, or as your TE2 if you paid up for an elite player at the position.
Other TE Risers: Luke Musgrave, Packers (ADP: 199.9, +5), Greg Dulcich, Broncos (ADP: 131.4, +5), Mike Gesicki, Patriots (ADP: 184.3, +4)
TE Fallers
Michael Mayer, Raiders (ADP: 209.2, -6.1)
Another repeat offender, Michael Mayer’s ADP has slipped 25.7 draft spots over the last six weeks. Drafters may still be hesitant when it comes to Raiders pass-catchers not named Davante Adams, due to the uncertainty surrounding the health of QB Jimmy Garoppolo.
Reports out of minicamp were good on the rookie TE, though, and when you get to the final round all picks are hit or miss. Mayer is not in the conversation in redraft leagues but as part of a Vegas stack or a Week 17 correlation with Indy for best ball tournament purposes, he’s worth some exposure for possible boom weeks.
Other TE Fallers: Tyler Conklin, Jets (ADP: 190.1. -3.9), Juwan Johnson, Saints (ADP: 168.6, -3.9), David Njoku, Browns (ADP: 105.6, -2.9)
