Fantasy Football: Caleb Williams Should Thrive Again In Favorable Team Environment

After going just 5-12 as a rookie, Caleb Williams helped lead the Bears to the NFC North title with their 11-6 record last season. Under new head coach Ben Johnson, their offense averaged nearly eight more points per game than the year prior. Now in his second season under Johnson, Williams is in a position to have a high floor in fantasy football.

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2025 Production

After completing 62.5% of his passes as a rookie, Williams only completed 58.1% of his passes last season. However, he did not regress. He tried to air things out a little more, increasing his average depth of target from 7.6 yards the year prior to 8.0 last season. That helped him complete 58 passes of at least 20 yards, up from 40 such completions in 2024. Although he failed to become the first Bears quarterback to throw for at least 4,000 yards in a season, he just missed the threshold with 3,942 yards.

Williams was also more productive in terms of touchdowns, finishing with 27 of them through the air. He did so while throwing just seven interceptions. Including the playoffs, he recorded at least two touchdown passes in each of his final seven games. He also chipped in three scores with his legs over the course of the regular season, in addition to 388 rushing yards.

According to 4for4’s Fantasy Points Browser, Williams finished last year as QB5 in fantasy. He beat out more established names like Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes. He also played well when it mattered the most, finishing as the QB6 during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15 through 17).

Difficult Schedule

After winning their division, the Bears will have a first-place schedule this season. That won’t make things easy for Williams. Per 4for4’s Hot Spots: Team Level Strength of Schedule, the Bears have the most difficult schedule for quarterbacks.

The Bears begin the season with matchups against the Panthers, Vikings, and Eagles, each of which is graded as a very strong opponent. During the fantasy playoffs, two of their three foes are graded as moderately strong opponents. Following Week 12, they have only one game against a team considered moderately weak, which comes in Week 17 at home against the Lions.

If there is a bit of good news, it’s that the Bears didn’t exactly have a cakewalk schedule last year. They faced nine teams that finished with a winning record. None of the teams in their division finished with a losing record. The Vikings allowed the seventh-fewest points per game in the league (19.6), and the Packers were almost as good in that department, ranking 11th in points allowed per game (21.2).

Noteworthy Change At Wide Receiver

Williams won’t have the same group of receivers at his disposal this season. After a disappointing campaign in which he finished with only 50 receptions for 682 yards, D.J. Moore was traded to the Bills. His tenure with the Bears started off on such a high note, registering 96 receptions for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns in 2023. However, he also failed to reach 1,000 receiving yards with Williams throwing passes his way in 2024. If there was something the Bears could count on from Moore, though, it was his availability. He played 17 games in each of the last five seasons.

With Moore no longer in the picture, Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III will take over as the Bears’ primary receivers. Odunze only caught 44 of his 90 targets last year, which can be partially attributed to an average depth of target of 13.8 yards. In his second season, Burden could be the one who provides the biggest boost for Williams. He only received 11.3% of the Bears’ targets last season, but was targeted on 24.1% of his routes run. He also averaged 7.4 yards after the catch. For comparison, Odunze averaged 4.9 yards after the catch. Burden being more involved could add an element of explosiveness to the offense.

Another reason why the Bears felt like they could move on from Moore is likely the presence of tight end Colston Loveland, who finished with 58 receptions for 713 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie. The Bears relied on him more as the season wore on, culminating with him posting back-to-back games with at least 10 targets to conclude the regular season. In two playoff games, he registered 15 and 10 targets. Not only is the increased target share to end things appealing, but Loveland wasn’t just a dink-and-dunk safety valve for Williams. He finished the season with an average depth of target of 8.9 yards.

There is a lot to like about Williams for fantasy. He will be in his second season playing for the offensive mastermind that is Johnson. He has young, talented pass catchers who can grow with him. With all of that in mind, Williams has an ADP of 70, per 4for4’s Multi-Site ADP. That makes him QB7 between Jalen Hurts (ADP 68) and Justin Herbert (ADP 82). Even with a difficult schedule on the horizon, Williams should bring a high floor to the table for fantasy managers on a weekly basis.

The Bottom Line

• Caleb Williams thrived in his first season under Johnson, nearly becoming the first quarterback in Bears history to throw for at least 4,000 yards in a season.
• The Bears have a difficult schedule this season, but Williams also performed well in a less-than-ideal schedule last year.
• Following the trade of Moore, Williams still has three young, talented weapons in Odunze, Burden, and Loveland that can make the Bears’ offense electric.
• According to 4for4’s Multi-Site ADP, Williams has an ADP of 70 and is QB7.
• Williams plays for one of the best offensive minds in the league and has a lot of talent around him. Expect him to be a reliable QB1 in fantasy football that brings a high floor on a weekly basis.