2023 NFL Win Totals: Odds, Predictions, and Bets
2023 NFL Win Totals were recently released by multiple sportsbooks! This is a beatable futures market if you are tracking each team’s off-season moves. The NFL Draft can shift a team’s win total if they have a good draft, but it’s very rare for a team to have such an impactful draft that their odds move much.
What are NFL Win Totals?
An NFL Win Total bet is when you are betting on how many games a team will win. Sportsbooks will set the over or under on each team, and you can bet if it will be less or more than that number. For example, if you bet on the Los Angeles Rams to win over 7.5 games, they would need to win 8 or more. If you bet under, they have to win 7-or-less games for your bet to win.
Ryan Noonan has won over 40 units on the NFL Futures market the past two seasons and just broke down his favorite early win total on the Los Angeles Rams in this free article!
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2023 NFL Win Totals Odds and Bets
Arizona Cardinals Win Total
Over: 4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Under: 5.5 (-150 at Caesars)
With Kyler Murray’s late-season injury, the Cardinals are in a tough position moving forward. We don’t know when Kyler will be ready, and it wouldn’t be surprising for him to miss time during the season. There have also been rumors about Deandre Hopkins getting traded. The Cardinals had a great draft but are set up for the future and not as much in 2023.
Atlanta Falcons Win Total
Over: 8.5 (+110 at DraftKings)
Under: 8.5 (-110 at Caesars)
The Falcons finished with 7 wins in 2021 despite having a largely weak roster. They have the fewest sacks over the past two years and struggled to throw the ball consistently with Marcus Mariota. The Falcons have said they are rolling into the season with Desmond Ridder as their starter, but Ridder did little to inspire despite having Drake London and Kyle Pitts at his disposal. They added Bijan Robinson in the draft as well as a few key defensive pieces in Free Agency.
Baltimore Ravens Win Total
Over: 9.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
Under: 9.5 (+110 at Caesars)
Lamar Jackson is back and the Ravens added Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham to give Lamar a strong pass-catching group. The Ravens are in a great position to win 10+ games.
Buffalo Bills Win Total
Over: 10.5 (-125 at Caesars)
Under: 10.5 (+120 at DraftKings)
The Bills took a small step back offensively last season after Josh Allen injured his UCL, but the overall roster is still loaded with talent. The issue is, the division is becoming significantly tougher, with Aaron Rodgers joining the Jets and Tua Tagovailoa entering the season healthy.
Carolina Panthers Win Total
Over: 7.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Under: 7.5 (+110 at DraftKings)
The Panthers traded up to get the No. 1 overall pick and selected Bryce Young. They also got Frank Reich in the building and a formidable defense. Without D.J. Moore, their receiving corps isn’t as strong, but they addressed that in free agency with the addition of D.J. Chark and Adam Thielen while also selecting Jonathan Mingo in the second round.
Chicago Bears Win Total
Over: 7.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
Under 7.5 (+110 at DraftKings)
The Bears wound up with the No. 1 overall pick after winning just 3 games. After a blockbuster trade and a lot of free agency spending, expectations are significantly higher in 2023. They added Darnell Wright in the draft, a plug-and-play Right Tackle that should make the unit above average.
Cincinnati Bengals Win Total
Over: 11.5 (+105 at Caesars)
Under: 11.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
After nearly making another run to the Super Bowl, the Bengals continue to be in a great position for another big season. Yet with Lamar Jackson back, Deshaun Watson potentially returning to form and the Steelers continuing to be underrated, winning 12+ games won't be easy.
Cleveland Browns Win Total
Over: 9.5 (+130 at DraftKings)
Under: 9.5 (-130 at BetMGM)
Expectations in Deshaun Watson’s second year are dramatically increased despite middling quarterback play. They added Elijah Moore, DL Dalvin Tomlinson, and S Juan Thornhill to their team and are in a good position to compete with the top of the AFC North.
Dallas Cowboys Win Total
Over: 9.5 (-130 at DraftKings)
Under: 9.5 (+130 at Caesars)
The Cowboys added Stephon Gilmore and Brandin Cooks to an already strong roster that retained a large majority of potential free agents. Cooks is a welcome addition to an offense that badly needed a field-stretcher to open up the field for CeeDee Lamb over the middle. They also re-signed Tony Pollard while releasing Ezekiel Elliott.
Denver Broncos Win Total
Over: 8.5 (+106 at FanDuel)
Under: 8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Could Russell Wilson already be on the outs in Denver? The Broncos hired Sean Payton who has recently commended Jarrett Stidham, their newly signed quarterback who flashed upside late last season. If anyone can fix Russell Wilson after last season’s utter disaster, it’s Sean Payton, who built a top-tier offense with the legend Drew Brees.
Detroit Lions Win Total
Over: 9.5 (-122 at FanDuel)
Under: 9.5 (+130 at DraftKings)
Has the roar been restored? The Lions not only boast a 9.5-win total but also have the best odds to win the division. The Vikings are still a serious contender, but the Packers without Aaron Rodgers are not the team they were. The Bears also made some additions but aren’t a top-half team in the league quite yet.
Green Bay Packers Win Total
Over: 7.5 (+130 at DraftKings)
Under: 7.5 (-120 at BetMGM)
The Packers are rolling with Jordan Love at quarterback after trading away Aaron Rodgers. Given the lack of pass-catching weapons in Green Bay, the Packers will have to lean on the running game to move the ball offensively. Things could get ugly for the Packers fast if they aren't able to find a rhythm offensively.
Houston Texans Win Total
Over: 5.5 (-120 at Caesars)
Under: 6.5 (-130 at DraftKings)
The Texans selected CJ Stroud second overall and traded up to add Will Anderson with the 3rd overall pick. The Texans added Robert Woods, Dalton Shultz, Jimmy Ward, and Shaq Mason while re-signing Laremy Tunsil as well. The arrow is certainly pointing up for the Texans in a weak AFC South division.
Indianapolis Colts Win Total
Over: 6.5 (-118 at Fanduel)
Under: 6.5 (+120 at DraftKings)
After riding the veteran QB carousel the past few years, the Colts selected Anthony Richardson fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Richardson is extremely raw but has massive upside in the future.
Jacksonville Jaguars Win Total
Over: 9.5 (-134 at FanDuel)
Under: 10.5 (-145 at DraftKings)
The addition of Calvin Ridley could be a massive one for this offense, in addition to slapping the franchise tag on Evan Engram. After an insane comeback over the Chargers in the wild card round of the playoffs, expectations for the Jaguars have almost never been higher entering Trevor Lawrence’s third season.
Kansas City Chiefs Win Total
Over: 11.5 (-115 at Caesars)
Under: 11.5 (+120 at Caesars)
Chiefs Kingdom added Jawaan Taylor to the offensive line on a fairly sizable contract but was otherwise quiet. They are still in a great position to with the AFC West
Los Angeles Chargers Win Total
Over: 9.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Under: 9.5 (-105 at Caesars)
The Chargers didn’t make too many moves this offseason from a player perspective but did fire OC Joe Lombardi. They replaced him with former Cowboys OC Kellen Moore who had fundamental disagreements with Cowboys HC Mike Mccarthy. This offense could look a lot different, with Moore calling the shots offensively. They also added WR Quentin Johnston to round out their receiving corps, helping Justin Herbert significantly.
Los Angeles Rams Win Total
Over: 7.5 (+135 at BetMGM)
Under: 7.5 (-140 at DraftKings)
Ryan Noonan broke down the Rams' offseason in-depth and why there is a clear bet to be made now in regards to their win total!
Las Vegas Raiders Win Total
Over: 7.5 (+130 at DraftKings)
Under: 7.5 (-140 at Caesars)
The Raiders lost Derek Carr but signed Jimmy Garoppolo in his place. They also traded away Darren Waller and signed Jakobi Meyers. They added Tyree Wilson in the draft but questions remain about how impactful he will be as a rookie.
Lean: No Lean
Miami Dolphins Win Total
Over: 9.5 (+110 at Caesars)
Under: 9.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
If Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy, the combination of his accuracy and both Jaylen Waddle's and Tyreek Hill’s explosiveness may be too much for opposing defenses to overcome. In the first chunk of the season, Tua and the Dolphins passing offense was the best in the league, according to the numbers.
Minnesota Vikings Win Total
Over: 8.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Under: 8.5 (+120 at Caesars)
The Vikings are one of the biggest regression candidates after last season’s improbable 13-4 finish. The Vikings allowed more points than they scored (427-to-424) yet were still able to win a ton of close games. The market already understands this, though, and has potentially overcorrected.
New England Patriots Win Total
Over: 7.5 (-115 at Caesars)
Under: 7.5 (+105 at BetMGM)
While the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins all seem to be trending up, the Patriots' vision is a bit blurry. They re-signed CB Jonathan Jones, added JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Mike Gesicki. None of that matters unless they can figure out an offensive system that makes sense. Who would have thought Joe Judge and Matt Patricia wouldn’t have made for a dynamic coaching duo? Since last season, the Patriots hired Bill O’Brien to be their offensive coordinator, a welcome change who already worked with Mac Jones at Alabama.
New Orleans Saints Win Total
Over: 9.5 (+116 at FanDuel)
Under: 9.5 (-120 at BetMGM)
The Saints added Derek Carr but lost a ton of talent defensively. This includes three defensive linemen in, Marcus Davenport, David Onyemata, and Shy Tuttle. The Saints may take a step forward offensively, but their defense may take a corresponding step backward.
New York Giants Win Total
Over: 8.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
Under: 8.5 (+126 at FanDuel)
The Giants ripped off 9 wins last season despite having a truly dismal roster top-to-bottom. Brian Daboll and the coaching staff squeezed every edge possible, willing this team to a playoff win over the Vikings. With minimal talent lost, and the addition of TE Darren Waller along with LB Bobby Ekereke, the Giants are in a great position to continue flirting with a playoff berth. They also added Deonte Banks in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
New York Jets Win Total
Over: 9.5 (-130 at BetMGM)
Under: 9.5 (+125 at DraftKings)
While the addition of Aaron Rodgers is massive, the coaching staff additions of Nathaniel Hackett and Todd Downing are absolutely brutal. It won’t be the first time Rodgers overcomes a suspect coaching staff though. Garrett Wilson and company figure to have massive seasons receiving. The defense also remains a strength.
Philadelphia Eagles Win Total
Over: 10.5 (-140 at FanDuel)
Under: 10.5 (+130 at DraftKings)
The Eagles didn’t lose as many players as expected but will be without DL Jason Hargrave, LG Isaac Seumalo, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, LB T.J. Edwards, S Marcus Epps, LB Kyzir White, and RB Miles Sanders. They added Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith in the first round, traded for D'Andre Swift and seemed to get every player "falling." The Eagles are in a fantastic position heading into next season.
Pittsburgh Steelers Win Total
Over: 8.5 wins (-108 at FanDuel)
Under: 8.5 (+120 at Caesars)
The Steelers are extremely thin at cornerback with the loss of Cameron Sutton to the Lions and the addition of a dusty Patrick Peterson. They made multiple key additions to the offensive line with Isaac Seumalo at left guard and Nate Herbig at right guard while drafting OT Broderick Jones. Their offensive line should be much better this season. Mike Tomlin’s team largely got better and has yet to win fewer than 8 games in any season during his 16 years of coaching.
Seattle Seahawks Win Total
Over: 8.5 (-120 at BetMGM)
Under: 8.5 (+115 at Caesars)
Despite losing Russell Wilson, the Seahawks still ripped off 9 wins last season. They didn’t lose many impactful players while adding Dre’Mont Jones on the interior of their defensive line and Julian Love to their defensive back room. The Seahawks added Devon Witherspoon with the 5th pick and Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 20th, two stellar picks in the first round.
San Francisco 49ers Win Total
Over: 11.5 (+135 at Caesars)
Under: 11.5 (-140 at DraftKings)
The 49ers suffered one of the worst seasons of quarterback injury luck we have seen in recent memory. Jimmy Garoppolo, Trey Lance, Brock Purdy, and Josh Johnson all suffered key injuries that held them back. Despite that, they made a run to the NFC Championship. They also added Javon Hargrave to continue adding beef to their defensive trenches. Their primary loss was Jimmy Garoppolo and RT Mike McGlinchey, who played 94.4% of the snaps for them.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over: 6.5 (+110 at DraftKings)
Under: 6.5 (+105 at BetMGM)
What are the Bucs going to do without Tom Brady? Their offensive line isn’t strong enough to rely on a dominant running game, and they are set to roll out Baker Mayfield at quarterback. They added Calijah Kancey in the draft but he is not enough to make a difference on this defense.
Tennessee Titans Win Total
Over: 7.5 (+115 at Caesars)
Under: 7.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
The Titans are in a tough spot. They finished with just 7 wins after a disastrous 2022 and wouldn’t fully commit to Ryan Tannehill being the starter in 2023. Without Tannehill, the Titans were a mess last season between Malik Willis and Josh Dobbs. They selected Will Levis in the second round after adding Peter Skoronski in the first round.
I broke down their win total in-depth here
Washington Commanders Win Total
Over: 6.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Under 7.5 (-150 at BetMGM)
The Commanders have been talking about how much they believe in Sam Howell non-stop despite sitting him behind Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke for almost all of last season. Despite massive dysfunction, the Commanders still found a way to win 8 games last year.
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