2023 NFL Win Total Bet: Tennessee Titans
Multiple sportsbooks released win totals last week! It’s the start of an exciting time of year that features both NFL Draft bets and NFL Futures. While we are waiting on more Draft props to populate, there are some futures we can take advantage of.
I get it, tying up your money for 9 months isn’t fun, but based on my betting history, Futures tend to have a much higher expected value than weekly bets. Last season my futures won +15.6 units while Ryan Noonan won exactly 20 units. You can find his first win total bet for free!
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Tennessee Titans NFL Win Total Bet
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Titans under 7.5 wins (-125 at DraftKings and Caesars)
The Titans finished with just 7 wins last season and could be undergoing some serious changes this off-season. There have been rumors swirling about trading away Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, and safety Kevin Byard on top of a number of other players. Beyond those initial rumors, NFL Insider Daniel Jeremiah mentioned on his latest podcast that the Titans are very interested in trading up to the No. 3 overall pick to select a rookie quarterback. This team could look very, very different come Week 1 if some of that pans out.
In free agency, they lost:
- RG Nate Davis
- WR Robert Woods
- DL Demarcus Walker
- LB David Long Jr
- TE Austin Hooper
- OG Dennis Daley
- LT Taylor Lewan
All of those players outside of Austin Hooper (47% of snaps) and Demarcus Walker (33.5%) played 60% of the snaps or more for the Titans. The Titans are trying to replace LT Taylor Lewan with FA signing, Andre Dillard, an Eagles backup offensive lineman who hasn’t panned out to date. EDGE Arden Key was a good addition, along with LB Azeez Al-Shaair. Despite those three above-average additions, they still need a ton of work on the offensive line, with just one current offensive lineman, Daniel Brusnkill, listed as an above-average player according to Pro Football Focus’ grades. In the receiving corps, Treylon Burks flashed at times but struggled with injuries and consistency. They re-signed Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and currently have Kyle Phillips penciled into the slot. They severely lack wide receiving weapons and competent offensive line play.
The Titans' front seven and run defense are the strength of the team, but they still have multiple holes in a secondary that finished last season 28th in pass EPA/play allowed and 27th in explosive pass rate allowed. The Titans' elite run defense doesn’t translate all that well in a league centered around passing.
It normally makes sense to wait to bet a win total until after the NFL Draft, but the Titans just don’t have an overwhelming amount of draft capital. They have just six picks total, one of which included the 11th overall pick. When betting on win Totals, I like to think about the range of outcomes between now and the start of the season.
The best scenario for the under would be if the Titans trade up for Will Levis or Anthony Richardson and the rumors about trading away Derrick Henry and S Kevin Byard come true. This would leave them in a really tough spot in almost every facet of the field outside of their run defense. A rookie quarterback behind a bad offensive line with marginal weapons at his disposal is a recipe for disaster. The Titans' win total would likely approach 5.5 in this scenario, with the in-season downside to finish with a top-3 pick the following season.
The worst-case scenario for the under at this point is that the Titans decide not to trade anyone away, stand pat, and grab CB Christian Gonzales or Devon Witherspoon if they are available. This would be a good start toward rebuilding their secondary. They could also opt to take one of the premier offensive tackles in this draft. No matter which direction they go, their offensive line won’t be good enough for the offense to be able to go back to their Derrick Henry-centric offense, and their secondary won’t be good enough to consistently slow down opposing passing attacks. If everything goes perfectly for the Titans for the rest of the offseason, their win total probably closes at 7.5 with -115 on both sides.
The floor for this team is extremely low if they trade up for a quarterback and isn’t all that high, given the lack of talent in their secondary and on the offensive line.
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