NFL Week 6 Best Bets on Rebet: Oli Fell's Top Player Props

Oct 16, 2026

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Now that is more like it. I did say four weeks of data is typically enough to get a good grasp on what is going on in this league. Before we recap Week 5, I cannot tell you how close I was to tipping a Carnell Tate prop. I had written it all out, but something in the back of my mind was telling me to veer off, and I pivoted to Garrett Wilson instead. As we discovered just five minutes into Sunday’s early slate, this was a pretty good decision. As I said before, I wasn’t totally sold on the Titans offence – and boy did it show... Let’s recap, shall we?

Week 5 Recap (3-0), Overall (9-6):

If the previous three weeks had been bust, this was certainly boom. Garrett Wilson had cleared his receiving line barely before I even had time to sit down in front of NFL RedZone. Emanuel Wilson, on the other hand, teased us as his first catch went for nine yards, one short of his line of 9.5. Eventually, he finished with 20+. Troy Franklin only had two catches, but that’s all we needed. Maybe the ladder will hit another day. Onwards, Week 6!

Aaron Rodgers over 21.5 Pass Completions v Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-116)

Risk 1.16 units to win 1 unit.

Despite the Buccaneers’ glaring flaws on offense, their run defense has had a remarkable start to the year. They allow just 3.4 yards-per-carry and 72.8 rushing yards-per-game, so the best way to attack Todd Bowles’ defense is through the air. On average, they allow quarterbacks to complete 22 passes per game, 79 of which are completed at an 80% accuracy on short throws.

Enter Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers have the league’s second-highest pass rate at 68% and, with backup running back Rico Dowdle still limited in practice, have been reluctant to commit to the run even in games they are leading. They’re 2.5-point favorites in this one, and even though Jaylen Warren is having somewhat of a breakout season, I would expect a lot of short passes to circumnavigate the Bucs’ stout run defense. Rodgers’ aDOT (average depth of target) has been pretty high compared to what we’re used to, but I think a lot of passes underneath and ‘easy button’ completions lie in wait.

Rodgers has cleared this line in four of his five games this year. The one game he didn’t was the divisional clash against the Bengals. Coincidentally, this was the game he had his season-high rushing yards, frequently flushed out of the pocket. The Bucs’ pressure rate is just 11.6%, second worst in the entire NFL. Sitting in the pocket and dicing up this poor Buccaneers’ pass defense is on the cards here.

Jonathan Taylor over 19.5 Carries v Tennessee Titans (-112)

Risk 1.12 units to win 1 unit.

Taylor is one of the most reliable three-down backs in the league. Even in games the Colts are trailing, Taylor’s usage is high. He has 52 rushes when the Colts are losing, which leads the league among all running backs. But great news, Colts fans – you get to play the 0-5 Titans this week at home!

The Titans are in a bit of a strange spot with their defensive rushing statistics. While they only allow 3.5 yards-per-carry, they lead the league in rushing attempts against. The logic for this is fairly simple; Tennessee has spent around 15 minutes leading in games this season. Teams go up a couple of scores and commit to the run, and the Titans know this, so their focus is on stopping the run and not letting the clock drain. Their heavy box rate is .46, good enough for 10th in the league. The Titans’ pass rate over expected against is in the bottom five in the league – essentially, teams are running on them no matter what.

By his lofty standards, Taylor is having somewhat of an average season. His success rate of 37.62% ranks 23rd in the league for all backs with 50+ attempts, and his EPA/rush (expected points added per rush) ranks 12th. However, the Colts’ 64 plays-per-game works in our favor here; Taylor on average is playing 82% of the snaps and has gone over 19.5 carries in three of five games this year. The two he didn’t? The Colts lost by more than one score. 6.5-point favorites at home leads me to believe Taylor is due a monster day against the lowly Titans.

Matthew Golden over 65.5 Receiving Yards v Dallas Cowboys (-125)

Risk 1.25 units to win 1 unit.

Much like our Garrett Wilson smash spot last week, the numbers are heavily in Matthew Golden’s favor here. On dropbacks, the Cowboys play man coverage at a 51% rate, and Golden’s YPPR (yards per route run) against man coverage is 3.78, dwarfing fellow receiver Christian Watson’s YPPR (0.74). While Watson may get a lot of the easier completions, Golden’s downfield threat is likely to be utilized to the maximum. Golden also leads the Packers in target share (38.9%) in dropbacks v man.

While all these numbers sound great, there is a small caveat – the sample size is quite small. So what else do we know? Well, the Cowboys’ defensive 0.19 EPA/play (expected points added per play) ranks dead last in the whole league. Most of this is from their poor rushing defense, but they’ve played against a lot of run-heavy teams so far this year. The Packers, on the other hand, are absolutely a pass-first offense. Despite MarShawn Lloyd’s two-touchdown outing last week, he only amassed 31 yards on the ground from 10 carries. The Packers’ pass rate is 68%, second only to the Cowboys.

I’m expecting a lot of back and forth between these two; the total for the game is 52.5, the second biggest of the week. 65% of Jordan Love’s passes have gone to wide receivers this year, which ranks in the top five of the league. I could spew out plenty more stats, but essentially I think this game has a big chance of turning into a shootout, and if the Cowboys do run more man coverage than zone, we could see another big Golden outing. He’s had three weeks of 90+ receiving yards so far, a true breakout player of the year candidate. Watch out for a huge reception downfield.

And that’s your three. Hopefully we can carry on from where we left off last week, this time targeting some high-scoring games and a big home favorite in the Colts. As always, these odds are available on Rebet Sportsbook. Let’s have ourselves a Sunday; let’s go!

Note: odds correct at time of posting