FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Week 10 GPP Breakdown

Nov 11, 2023
Week 10 GPP Breakdown

In this space each week will be the top stacks, contrarian plays, and strategies to attack GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The backbone of our player pool is value, as highlighted by 4for4’s proprietary value metric, which goes beyond simple point-per-dollar projections. To be successful in GPPs, however, it’s essential to be unique and that can be accomplished by combining knowledge from 4for4’s suite of DFS tools including ownership projections, leverage scores, correlation, and stack values.

Even with all of these resources at our disposal, adjusting for game type is essential. For example, someone playing the Millionaire Maker shouldn’t have the same approach as someone entering a $300 single-entry contest with 150 entries. For nuanced explanations on game selection and lineup construction, be sure to check out 4for4’s DFS Strategy Hub and DFS MVP game theory segments.

Note: Many of 4for4’s value plays should be in your GPP player pool but may not necessarily be written about below. Most starters on teams with high implied totals are worthy of being rostered but players in this breakdown are those to be overweight on.

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More Week 10 DFS Strategy: Top Values and Cash Plays | WR/CB Matchups | Ownership Projections | Leverage Scores

Popular Games to Target

Texans @ Bengals (-6.5); O/U 47

This one turned me off the moment 23(!) players opened on Houston’s injury report. C.J. Stroud ($6,900 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel), the QB16 in points per game before running into the Bucs, is also in an entirely different spot against DC Lou Anarumo and this Bengals defense permitting 11.9 per-week passing points to Geno Smith, Brock Purdy, and Josh Allen in their last three games—Allen ultimately got there in fantasy with 10.4 points via his legs.

Furthermore, Tank Dell ($5,500 DK/$6,400 FD) will be chalk sans Nico Collins (calf, out), and Noah Brown ($3,700 DK/$5,400 FD) is being chased for recency bias following his first career game (out of 70) over 100 yards. I’m instead open to clicking Devin Singletary ($4,700 DK/$5,700 FD) on both sites if only for his price—he encouragingly handled 15-of-16 backfield touches without Dameon Pierce (out) against the Bucs, and Cincinnati offers a more enticing matchup on paper in allowing the league’s highest rate of explosive runs.

I’m not interested in Joe Burrow ($6,800 DK/$8,200 FD) on DraftKings either since he’s the primary cash game option in a field stuffed with ceiling plays; we can’t be caught playing our core stack into ownership in a 10-game slate, and any combo of Trenton Irwin ($3,000 DK/$4,800 FD), Burrow, and Dell immediately put us in harm’s way.

Given Ja'Marr Chase’s ($8,600 DK/$9,300 FD) lingering injury and 43.1% target share earned without Tee Higgins (hamstring, out) in Week 5, I prefer being overweight on Chase—hopefully at lower ownership for his bruise that’s perceived to limit him—with Cincinnati’s defense ($2,800 DK/$4,400 FD) tacked on.

Falcons @ Cardinals (-6.5); O/U 47

Tyler Allgeier has out-carried Bijan Robinson ($6,000 DK/$6,600 FD) 10-2 inside the 10-yard line with no end in sight. And the last thing we should do is play Bijan’s ambiguous role into ownership in tournaments—something I’m expecting him to collect given the lack of value at his position.

If you were to click his name, though, my favorite way to play this game on DraftKings is through (gulp …) Taylor Heinicke ($5,100 DK/$7,000 FD), Drake London ($5,500 DK/$6,500 FD), AND Bijan given Arizona’s soft pass defense with the league’s third-lowest pressure rate and fifth-most yards per attempt. Heinicke (as ugly as it sounds) fits the mold of this slate since he allows us to uniquely play one of (or both) Marquise Brown ($5,200 DK/$6,600 FD) and Trey McBride ($3,500 DK/$5,100 FD) while spending up for elite players that are otherwise hard to find salary for. I will be playing London in my core regardless of whether I roster Heinicke given that the sophomore practiced in full throughout the week and has seen at least 21% of Atlanta's targets in five consecutive games.

If choosing only one for tournaments, Brown, who averaged a team-high 24.2% target share as the WR8 in points per game in six starts with Kyler Murray ($5,900 DK/$7,500 FD) and without DeAndre Hopkins last year, gets the nod over McBride. Murray himself is too thin an option in his first game back given the surrounding quarterbacks with higher ceilings (and without the risk).

Titans @ Buccaneers (-1.5); O/U 39

Stroud doubles were part of our process last week because Tampa’s defense had been trending down. In the last month alone, opposing quarterbacks have completed 72.8% of their passes for 26.7 fantasy points and 9.2 YPA. Will Levis ($5,300 DK/$6,800 FD), having attempted a league-high 28.4% of his passes 20 yards downfield, is up next.

His definitive stacking partner for tournaments is DeAndre Hopkins ($6,000 DK/$7,100 FD), who has registered team-highs in target share (25.9%) and deep shots (37%) from the rookie the past two weeks. Given the lack of value on DraftKings in particular, however, Kyle Philips ($3,000 DK/$5,000 FD) is also an option for any double stacks there: he’s not only a pivot away from Trenton Irwin at the same price, Philips saw five targets (13.5%) with Treylon Burks (concussion) off the field last week. Note that the Bucs have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game (14.6) to enemy slot receivers.

Rachaad White ($5,800 DK/$7,000 FD) admittedly stands out regardless of ownership given the landscape of his position. Not only has he earned a double-digit target share in every game since Week 2, but Tennessee has allowed four different running backs to reach 12.2 PPR points since Week 5. Chris Godwin ($6,700 DK/$6,500 FD) can be stacked with White if onslaughting this game for Godwin’s team-high 21% target share over Mike Evans ($7,200 DK/$7,600 FD) out of Tampa’s bye.

Giants @ Cowboys (-17); O/U 39

The GPP bros are yet again circling Tony Pollard ($7,300 DK/$7,800 FD) on FanDuel for his egregious salary there. And on the surface, his environment makes sense: Dallas projects with the week’s highest team total (28.2) as 17.5-point home favorites.

Like the last slate, however, when Dak Prescott ($6,700 DK/$8,100 FD) was the clear pivot off of both Jalen Hurts and Pollard, the Cowboys’ passing game is once again in a better spot than Pollard from the ground.

CeeDee Lamb’s ($8,500 DK/$8,900 FD) 38.5% target share and 35.1 fantasy points per game out of Dallas’ bye lead his position, and Jake Ferguson ($4,600 DK/$5,800 FD) remains tied with Mark Andrews for second in red zone targets (16) among tight ends. Dallas has also averaged the league’s fifth-highest pass play rate with an 8+ point lead in their last three games, ignoring their running backs in blowouts. Much like Bijan Robinson's situation, the last thing I want to do is be caught playing Pollard into ownership in tournaments when the Cowboys could just as easily build a lead (at even lower ownership) through the air. Dak has also finished as the QB1, QB4, and QB2 (with 5.5 carries per game) in his last three starts.

Ignore all Giants players unless you hate yourself.

Tournament Pivots

Commanders @ Seahawks (-6.5); O/U 44.5

Geno Smith ($5,800 DK/$6,900 FD) is in a sweet spot and everyone knows it; he’ll undoubtedly be the primary spend-down option in cash games on FanDuel given his low salary there. And it checks out: in Washington’s first game without both Montez Sweat (Bears) and Chase Young (49ers), its defense pressured Mac Jones on 23% of dropbacks—they were generating pressure on 36% of snaps through Week 8—recording one sack. Smith is averaging 8.0 YPA from a clean pocket (sixth).

If I play Geno on DraftKings, however, I’m either doubling him with Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,100 DK/$5,600 FD) for the lack of values on that site in particular or, in smaller fields, onslaughting him with all three of his receivers. Both DK Metcalf ($6,800 DK/$7,300 FD), averaging a team-high 24.5% target share in three games out of Seattle’s bye, and Tyler Lockett ($6,100 DK/$6,800 FD) are viable on FanDuel.

The pending rain and Geno’s projected ownership also keep Kenneth Walker ($6,900 DK/$7,300 FD), forecasted with the second-highest ceiling at his position, in play.

With Curtis Samuel (toe, questionable) potentially back in the fold, Logan Thomas ($3,800 DK/$5,300 FD) stands out if only to correlate that position across from Geno in any game stacks. Thomas has seen at least six targets in four of his last five starts.

49ers @ Jaguars (+3); O/U 45

Even with Trent Williams (ankle) trending in the wrong direction, Jacksonville’s defense doesn’t threaten Brock Purdy ($5,700 DK/$7,400 FD) in generating the league’s seventh-lowest pressure rate (31.9%) and seventh-fewest sacks (18). Purdy has tossed five picks in his last three starts but leads the league in completion rate (78.1%) and YPA (10.4) from a clean pocket.

Christian McCaffrey ($9,200 DK/$10,500 FD), offering the slate’s highest ceiling at any position, is also checking in at 5-8% ownership, qualifying Purdy and friends as low-owned commodities. That includes Brandon Aiyuk ($7,100 DK/$7,800 FD), who’s my lean over Deebo Samuel ($6,200 DK/$7,000 FD) given the matchup: Jacksonville has schemed zone coverage at the NFL's third-highest rate, which Aiyuk has spiked for 18.5 yards per catch (second) and 3.18 Yards Per Route Run (third). Like Drake London, Aiyuk is one of my favorite standalone plays on the board.

The Niners have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game (95.6) to receivers from the boundary, keeping Calvin Ridley ($5,600 DK/$6,700 FD) in play at cost. Feel free to throw Travis Etienne ($7,100 DK/$8,400 FD) out there instead if you think Jacksonville slows Purdy down.

Lions @ Chargers (+3); O/U 48.5

The Lions averaged the fifth-highest run play rate with David Montgomery ($6,900 DK/$7,500 FD) healthy, but Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000 DK/$8,200 FD) did just enough to presumably create a timeshare moving forward.

If the Lions were to engineer their offense through Jared Goff ($6,400 DK/$8,000 FD), he would undoubtedly get there against a Chargers secondary playing zone coverage at the 10th-highest rate; the veteran has spiked said coverage for a 70.4% completion rate (12th) and league-high eight touchdowns. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300 DK/$8,600 FD) has been the primary beneficiary against that scheme, earning a 27.8% target share (seventh).

Playing this game through Goff also allows us to gain exposure to two unique plays with high ceilings: Sam LaPorta ($5,700 DK/$6,500 FD) given Los Angeles’ 8.2 YPC (fourth) and 69 YPG (second) allowed to tight ends, and Quentin Johnston ($4,100 DK/$5,900 FD), who the field wants no part of. As mentioned time and time again, this slate offers little value at both running back and wide receiver, pitting Johnston in a bounce-back spot at no ownership after his first career start opposite a Jets secondary containing wide receivers to a league-low 11.6 points per game. The rookie still quietly led the Chargers in routes run.

Keenan Allen ($8,800 DK/$9,000 FD), albeit an impossible fit in any Goff stacks, is an interesting outlier since Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja'Marr Chase will garner ownership in cash games (and the ensuing trickle-down into GPPs.)

Stack Ideas

Dak Prescott ($6,700 DK/$8,100 FD), CeeDee Lamb ($8,500 DK/$8,900 FD), and Jake Ferguson ($4,600 DK/$5,800 FD)

Geno Smith ($5,800 DK/$6,900 FD), DK Metcalf ($6,800 DK/$7,300 FD), Tyler Lockett ($6,100 DK/$6,800 FD), AND Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,100 DK/$5,600 FD) + Logan Thomas ($3,800 DK/$5,300 FD) on DraftKings

Will Levis ($5,300 DK/$6,800 FD), DeAndre Hopkins ($6,000 DK/$7,100 FD), and Kyle Philips ($3,000 DK/$5,000 FD) + Rachaad White ($5,800 DK/$7,000 FD) on DraftKings

Will Levis ($5,300 DK/$6,800 FD) and DeAndre Hopkins ($6,000 DK/$7,100 FD) + Chris Godwin ($6,700 DK/$6,500 FD) on FanDuel

Taylor Heinicke ($5,100 DK/$7,000 FD), Bijan Robinson ($6,000 DK/$6,600 FD), and Drake London ($5,500 DK/$6,500 FD) + Marquise Brown ($5,200 DK/$6,600 FD) on DraftKings

Jared Goff ($6,400 DK/$8,000 FD), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300 DK/$8,600 FD), and Sam LaPorta ($5,700 DK/$6,500 FD) + Quentin Johnston ($4,100 DK/$5,900 FD)

Brock Purdy ($5,700 DK/$7,400 FD), Christian McCaffrey ($9,200 DK/$10,500 FD), and Brandon Aiyuk ($7,100 DK/$7,800 FD) + Calvin Ridley ($5,600 DK/$6,700 FD)

Ja’Marr Chase ($8,600 DK/$9,300 FD) and Bengals Defense ($2,800 DK/$4,400 FD)

Contrarian and Leverage Plays

GPP Player Pool

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