10 ADP Risers & Fallers After Preseason Week 3
The fantasy gods have blessed us by wrapping up the preseason games early, leaving us with only the task of drafting our fantasy teams for the 2021 season. Analyzing Underdog ADP from week to week is helpful to gather an overall impression of when players are leaving draft boards. Drafters of these leagues tend to be sharper than your average fantasy football participant, so you may find players will slip a bit further in some leagues than others.
In this piece, I’ll take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers from the last week of the preseason, comparing their ADP from August 22nd to August 29th, and how you should approach them moving forward.
Note: The number in parenthesis represents their overall +/- ADP jump according to 4for4’s Underdog ADP tool.
Sony Michel - RB, Rams (-79.1 overall ADP)
It was super weird to type Rams after Sony Michel’s name but he is indeed a new member of the L.A. Rams, after a trade on August 25th sent him west in exchange for conditional fifth- and sixth-round picks in 2022. It’s a fresh start for Michel in an offense that lost Cam Akers earlier this offseason. He’s set to provide a veteran presence on those early downs, at least while Darrell Henderson recovers from a thumb injury.
This backfield could indeed end up in a committee situation, but considering Michel’s insane jump in ADP still carries a 12th-round price tag he’s worth a stab in a fresh situation.
Jameis Winston - QB, Saints (-37.6 overall ADP)
Summer drafters were hesitant to pull the trigger on Jameis Winston due to the ambiguity of the starting QB job in New Orleans. The former Buccaneer shone in the Saints' second preseason outing and was subsequently given the reins of the offense. Winston’s ADP rose over three rounds following his designation as the starter and he’s now being drafted as the QB23 (173.3 overall).
The receiving corps is a bit banged up in New Orleans, but Marquez Callaway has emerged as Winston’s go-to guy and, of course, he still has Alvin Kamara in the backfield. Draft him as a QB2 in Superflex formats and best-ball leagues. He should also be on the radar as a streaming candidate this season.
James Robinson - RB, Jaguars (-37.1 overall ADP)
James Robinson’s climb of just over three rounds is sadly the result of a season-ending Lisfranc injury to rookie Travis Etienne. Now Robinson will assume early-down duties, along with passing-down snaps, too. Carlos Hyde should also get an attrition bump, with Laviska Shenault possibly seeing an uptick in targets as a result of Etienne’s injury. Robinson is now a fifth-rounder, leaving draft boards as the RB21.
Rhamondre Stevenson - RB, Patriots (-29.9 overall ADP)
It’s been one highlight-reel of a preseason for rookie Rhamondre Stevenson, filled with effective short runs, a showcase in his receiving prowess and a few monster plays. Damien Harris is the assumed lead back of this offense, but the Patriots' backfield is never as it may appear.
Stevenson is still inexpensive with an ADP of 165.6 heading into draft week and makes for a really nice late flier in best ball drafts, or bench insurance in redraft formats if something were to happen to Harris or if Bill Belichick decides to ride with the hot hand.
Marquez Callaway - WR, Saints (-24.3 overall ADP)
Marquez Callaway has been a part of this article in all three of its iterations, rising 22.5 spots after Week 1, 13.3 places following the second preseason game, and now another two rounds this week, for a grand total of 60.1 spots since August 9th. Now a ninth-round pick, the Saints wideout is still a solid fantasy option at that price, considering he’s the No. 1 receiver in New Orleans while Michael Thomas and Tre'Quan Smith recover from injury.
Adam Trautman - TE, Saints (+33.0 overall ADP)
It looks like Adam Trautman’s ankle/foot injury is not as serious as it first appeared during the Saints’ second preseason tilt, but fantasy drafters reacted by letting the TE slide nearly three rounds over the past seven days.
If he misses Week 1, even with a minor injury, Trautman is not draftable as more than a TE2. Upon return, however, he could be valuable in an offense devoid of many healthy pass-catchers. In Underdog drafts, Trautman is currently carrying a 183.8 ADP.
Xavier Jones - RB, Rams (+26.8 overall ADP)
Xavier Jones is unfortunately shrapnel from the trade between the Rams and Patriots for Sony Michel. He was being drafted in the 15th round as the potential backup for Darrell Henderson and has fallen to the 17th now that he’s the third man in that backfield. Jones really only offers value if something were to happen to both Henderson and Michel, taking him off the fantasy radar for now.
David Johnson - RB, Texans (+24.1 overall ADP)
You know it’s bad when David Johnson can’t seem to carve out a role in an offense that’s not exactly brimming with talent. The former Cardinal was barely used this preseason, playing 33% of the snaps with the first team in last week’s contest, and could be relegated to solely pass-catching duty.
Johnson has slipped all the way to 189.3 in Underdog drafts, down two whole rounds from where he was being selected last week. He could have some appeal if something were to happen to Mark Ingram or Phillip Lindsay, or if he were to end up on another squad as part of a trade. For now, though, Johnson is not draftable in seasonal formats.
Latavius Murray - RB, Saints (+21.1 overall ADP)
It appears the 31-year-old Latavius Murray may have hit the dreaded wrong-side-of-30-wall because it’s not been a great preseason for him. Rumors were already swirling that he’d be fighting for a roster spot, then in Week 2 of the preseason, he carried the ball four times for a meager six yards.
The Saints did not play this week due to Hurricane Ida but drafters were still shying away from taking Murray. His ADP has dipped down to the 14th round, which is very affordable, but give me Damien Williams, Rhamondre Stevenson or Giovani Bernard in that price range, who are all trending upwards in usage and potential.
Breshad Perriman - WR, FA (+17 overall APP)
Getting cut from one of the worst projected offenses can’t be a good thing for Breshad Perriman’s relevancy or ego, but it is what it is. The Lions waived the 27-year-old receiver on Monday morning so his ADP should continue to freefall throughout the rest of draft season. His release could pave the way for Quintez Cephus or Geronimo Allison to see an increased role in Detroit, so either could be worthy of a last-round dart in best ball.
|Pos||Player||Team||Diff||Recent ADP||Old ADP|
|Pos||Player||Team||Diff||Recent ADP||Old ADP|
|WR||Amon-Ra St. Brown||DET||5.8||160.6||154.8|