FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Week 17 GPP Breakdown

Dec 30, 2023
Week 17 GPP Breakdown

In this space each week will be the top stacks, contrarian plays, and strategies to attack GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The backbone of our player pool is value, as highlighted by 4for4’s proprietary value metric, which goes beyond simple point-per-dollar projections. To be successful in GPPs, however, it’s essential to be unique and that can be accomplished by combining knowledge from 4for4’s suite of DFS tools including ownership projections, leverage scores, correlation, and stack values.

Even with all of these resources at our disposal, adjusting for game type is essential. For example, someone playing the Millionaire Maker shouldn’t have the same approach as someone entering a $300 single-entry contest with 150 entries. For nuanced explanations on game selection and lineup construction, be sure to check out 4for4’s DFS Strategy Hub and DFS MVP game theory segments.

Note: Many of 4for4’s value plays should be in your GPP player pool but may not necessarily be written about below. Most starters on teams with high implied totals are worthy of being rostered but players in this breakdown are those to be overweight on.

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More Week 17 DFS Strategy: Top Values and Cash Plays | WR/CB Matchups | Ownership Projections | Leverage Scores

Popular Games to Target

Cardinals @ Eagles (-11.5); O/U 48.5

With Jalen Hurts ($8,300 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) totaling 35 touchdowns from scrimmage, he obviously boasts the highest floor at his position on this (vast) slate. Any argument for him in tournaments then boils down to his ceiling at cost. And with less than 32 pass attempts in two of his last seven games, it’s hard to logically get there against a Cardinals offense that’s averaged 20.6 points (23rd) in Kyler Murray’s six starts.

A.J. Brown ($8,600 DK/$8,500 FD) is a tremendous standalone option regardless of Hurts’ status in your lineup given Brown’s 31% target share (third) to DeVonta Smith’s ($7,300 DK/$7,200 FD) 21.4% share in their last four games.

Rather than spending up for either, however, I will be crossing my fingers and leveraging off of Philadelphia’s passing game with D'Andre Swift ($6,500 DK/$7,600 FD). Although he admittedly requires the perfect runout to produce, Swift has registered 20 touches in back-to-back games, and five of the last six starters to face the Cardinals have scored at least 17.6 PPR points from the ground.

James Conner ($5,900 DK/$6,700 FD), suddenly rattling off three consecutive top-12 performances, is quietly playable across from Hurts given Philadelphia’s 22.8 PPR points per game allowed to enemy runners out of their bye. I can’t imagine anyone gets to him on DraftKings since Trey McBride ($5,900 DK/$6,800 FD) is the same price.

If you’re projecting the Eagles, toting the week’s second-highest team total (30), to simply drown Arizona, Greg Dortch ($4,200 DK/$5,200 FD) will be involved in three-wide sets.

Dolphins @ Ravens (-3); O/U 46.5

Lamar Jackson ($7,700 DK/$7,900 FD) will be rostered on FanDuel given his egregious price there. I worry about the overall game environment in this one, however, since both defenses rank top-five in scoring drive percentage allowed from the moment Jalen Ramsey returned in Week 8.

Isaiah Likely ($4,600 DK/$6,000 FD) is my favorite stacking option with Lamar regardless of Zay Flowers’ ($5,600 DK/$6,300 FD) status at kick-off given the former’s 15.3 points per game (fifth) without Mark Andrews. Another way to play this one, though, is to assume Miami’s offense collapses on the road, allowing for Gus Edwards ($5,900 DK/$6,300 FD) to churn out 15-plus carries on FanDuel.

Per Sharp Football’s Rich Hribar, Tyreek Hill ($9,300 DK/$9,800 FD) has been targeted on 46.7% of his routes with Jaylen Waddle (out) off the field this year. You’re on your own figuring out how to get there.

Titans @ Texans (-4); O/U 44

After listening to numerous shows and sifting through projections around the industry, I seem to be quite literally the only person worried about C.J. Stroud’s ($7,100 DK/$7,800 FD) first game back from a concussion. I’ve added him to the pool of players below since he’ll be widely rostered, naturally bringing along Nico Collins ($7,200 DK/$7,300 FD) in an elite spot against a Titans defense that sits 21st in Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points allowed to opposing wideouts.

If the steam gets too hot for Stroud and Co., Devin Singletary ($5,600 DK/$6,600 FD) is viable as leverage. Tennessee’s injuries in the trenches have caught up to them of late, permitting 20.4 PPR points per game to enemy backfields since Week 12.

For larger fields, Will Levis ($5,200 DK/$6,500 FD) will be ignored (on a slate we’re attempting to spend down at his position on DraftKings) because Stroud’s presence camouflages him. And with DeAndre Hopkins ($6,000 DK/$6,700 FD) already being played across from Stroud stacks, Levis needs to be in our pool in a soft spot: the Texans have permitted the eighth-highest rate of 15-yard completions through the air out of their bye—a stretch of nine games.

Tournament Pivots

49ers @ Commanders (+13.5); O/U 49.5

Ignore Brock Purdy’s ($7,000 DK/$8,500 FD) performance against the Ravens and roster him with confidence. Washington has generated pressure on 27% (32nd) of dropbacks sans Chase Young (49ers) and Montez Sweat (Bears), and Purdy still leads the league in yards per attempt (10.5) from a clean pocket. Christian McCaffrey ($9,600 DK/$11,000 FD) can also be played with Purdy, especially on FanDuel where both are expensive (but worth the cost).

If nitpicking between Deebo Samuel ($7,700 DK/$8,800 FD), Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000 DK/$7,500 FD), and George Kittle ($5,900 DK/$6,700 FD) to bring a third option along, Kittle is my target not only for being the cheapest of the bunch but because he's led his position in Yards Per Route Run (2.74) from Week 10 on.

Terry McLaurin ($5,500 DK/ is viable opposite Purdy if Jacoby Brissett ($4,900 DK/$6,800 FD) is active following a hamstring injury suffered on Thursday; the Niners have permitted the most catches per game from the boundary where McLaurin, who’s earned a team-high 22.7% target share from Brissett, leads the Commanders in routes run. Bringing back any player on Washington is not necessary if Sam Howell gets the nod.

Rams @ Giants (+5.5); O/U 43.5

The Rams have averaged 6.8 yards per play with Matthew Stafford ($6,600 DK/$7,500 FD), Kyren Williams ($8,300 DK/$9,400 FD), Cooper Kupp ($8,100 DK/$8,000 FD), and Puka Nacua ($7,900 DK/$7,900 FD) on the field together (per TruMedia), logically dousing New York's defense in flames. If Nacua were chased for the public's obsession with his rookie receiving record, however, Kyren would obviously be the preferred play. In terms of who to spend up for on this slate as a whole, I rank them CMC > Kyren > Tyreek.

Demarcus Robinson ($4,600 DK/$6,400 FD), leading the Rams in end zone targets (7) over his last seven games, also provides unique leverage and a cheap out among this offense. You can even play him with Kyren if need be.

Sticking with the theme of spending down at quarterback, though, Tyrod Taylor ($4,600 DK/$6,700 FD) is my favorite option on this slate. Not only have the Rams struggled in allowing explosive passes (23rd) and generating pressure (29th) over the second half of the season, Taylor has a natural stacking partner (for cheap!) in Darius Slayton ($3,400 DK/$5,400 FD), who's accounted for 40% of the team's explosive passes on the year.

Bengals @ Chiefs (-6.5); O/U 43.5

Stacks revolving around the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes ($7,500 DK/$8,000 FD) are an easy argument to make if he were projected to go overlooked. The issue is that everyone is aching not only to play him, but find leverage off of Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,300 DK/$6,500 FD). That’s created the perfect storm of an offense, which has not shown a ceiling at any point all year, suddenly getting steamed in ownership, Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK/$7,800 FD) and Rashee Rice ($6,900 DK/$7,400 FD) included.

I prefer to wait out Isiah Pacheco’s ($6,800 DK/$7,200 FD) ‘questionable’ tag in this one and roster him alongside Kansas City’s defense ($3,600 DK/$4,600 FD) rather than chasing the ghost of their offense through the air with the rest of the field.

I’ll be more than happy to change my opinion on Mahomes if our opponents get off of him Sunday morning.

Stack Ideas

Jalen Hurts ($8,300 DK/$9,200 FD) + James Conner ($5,900 DK/$6,700 FD)

Tyrod Taylor ($4,600 DK/$6,700 FD) and Darius Slayton ($3,400 DK/$5,400 FD) + Kyren Williams ($8,300 DK/$9,400 FD)

Brock Purdy ($7,000 DK/$8,500 FD), Christian McCaffrey ($9,600 DK/$11,000 FD), and Deebo Samuel ($7,700 DK/$8,800 FD) on DraftKings

Brock Purdy ($7,000 DK/$8,500 FD) and Christian McCaffrey ($9,600 DK/$11,000 FD) on FanDuel

C.J. Stroud ($7,100 DK/$7,800 FD), Nico Collins ($7,200 DK/$7,300 FD), and Dalton Schultz ($4,300 FD, $6,200 FD) + DeAndre Hopkins ($6,000 DK/$6,700 FD) on FanDuel

Will Levis ($5,200 DK/$6,500 FD) and DeAndre Hopkins ($6,000 DK/$6,700 FD) + Nico Collins ($7,200 DK/$7,300 FD) on DraftKings

Isiah Pacheco ($6,800 DK/$7,200 FD) OR Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,300 DK/$6,500 FD) and Chiefs Defense ($3,600 DK/$4,600 FD)

Contrarian and Leverage Plays

Injuries to Monitor for Leverage

GPP Player Pool

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