Squirrel’s Nuts & Bolts: Dolphins - Bills Showdown Strategy (Week 3 NFL DFS)

Week 3 of the NFL season kicks off with an AFC East showdown as the Dolphins visit the Bills in Buffalo. This is our first primetime game of the year with a double-digit spread (and just our second of the overall season) as the Dolphins are 12.5-point road underdogs, with the total set at 49.5 points. Expectations were higher for both teams back in September, but the Dolphins have stumbled to an 0-2 start with losses to the Colts and Patriots. The Bills, meanwhile, have the home-field advantage and are 2-0 with victories over the Ravens and Jets.

While the Miami offense and QB Tua Tagovailoa have drawn criticism, the Dolphins' defense could be a greater problem. Miami has allowed 75% of its opponents’ drives this season to end in points; the next-worst team (Carolina) is sitting at 56%. They’re surrendering the second-most points per game and have yet to force a turnover. Offensively, Miami is loaded with talent behind Tua, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (who is expected to test his injured shoulder pre-game) at WR and RB DeVon Achane, who is one of the best receiving RBs in the league. But the offense has been less than the sum of its parts, ranking 8^th-worst on both yards and points per game this season.

Buffalo, on the other hand, has looked like a championship contender. Through two weeks, the Bills lead the NFL in yards per game on offense, while allowing the 8^th-fewest yards per game on defense. Quarterback Josh Allen and running back James Cook have combined for five rushing touchdowns, and five Buffalo pass-catchers (including Cook) have racked up six or more receptions across the first two games. For DFS single-game contests, we’ll have to keep in mind the spread of the game and potential blowout scenarios, while also knowing that our opponents will be doing the same. Let’s break down this AFC East showdown, highlight the key plays, and uncover the strategies that could help you climb the leaderboards.

How I Plan to Beat the Field

There’s little doubt who will be the highest-owned CPT/MVP in this game, even with the salary multiplier. Josh Allen should dominate top-spot ownership in DFS lineups, followed by Dolphins RB De’Von Achane – a distant second – who could pile up receptions if Miami is forced to play catch-up. That creates an early decision point: follow the field with Allen or Achane at captain and differentiate in the Flex spots, or take a contrarian CPT/MVP and allow for a chalkier Flex build.

My plan to beat the field is to embrace some risk and go underweight on both Allen and Achane at CPT/MVP. With a big spread and a high implied total for Buffalo, I expect the field to be overconfident about how the game plays out statistically. While I expect Buffalo to control this game just like everyone else, there are plenty of scenarios where Allen doesn’t need a standout fantasy performance for the Bills to win comfortably. For context, Allen scored fewer than 12 DraftKings points last week while attempting only 25 passes in a 30-10 win over the Jets. Achane is more palatable at a cheaper price – especially if Jaylen Waddle is out – but he probably still needs a touchdown to justify the captain slot. I’ll be under the field on both and look further down the price list for top-spot plays.

Here are some of the players I’m targeting in the mid-range of pricing tonight, with their DraftKings prices:

• Tyreek Hill ($9,800): A strong leverage play against Achane with massive upside. He’s coming off a 109-yard receiving game last week.
• Keon Coleman ($6,800): After an 8-catch, 112-yard, 1-TD debut, he disappeared in Week 2. He could re-emerge as Buffalo’s primary receiver.
• Khalil Shakir ($6,600): The top Buffalo WRs are both in play for me in the CPT/MVP spot. Shakir had 100 targets last season, 25 more than the next-highest Bills player.

I’ll also keep kickers firmly in the pool, and I again expect to stay underweight on defenses, though I’ll likely have double-digit exposure to the Bills D in a strong home matchup against a shaky Miami offense that could disintegrate. The field will notice the same edge, so expect Buffalo’s defense to be popular (and over-owned). This game offers some other intriguing cheap options:

• Dalton Kincaid ($5,400): Second on the Bills in targets last season and receptions this year, though splitting snaps with Dawson Knox.
• Ray Davis ($2,600): Leverage off the more expensive James Cook, Davis could see more carries in a blowout scenario.
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($2,000): Signed with Miami after scoring nine TDs for Tennessee last year. With three catches so far, he doesn’t need much to pay off his bargain tag.

With that player pool in mind, the next step is building smarter lineups—so let’s move into some lineup rules to consider for strong roster construction.

Lineup Rules to Consider

Here are some rules to consider when building lineups for this Showdown contest:

• If I use both Josh Allen and James Cook in a lineup, I’ll require at least one other Bills receiver (or the Buffalo D/ST) in the lineup.
  Allen and Cook can cannibalize each other’s rushing production, so if Cook is in the lineup, then Allen likely needs to be putting up points through the air. If they both land in the winning lineup, that’s likely bad news for the Dolphins, and this rule also helps minimize Miami players in the lineup.
• I’ll pair both Tua Tagovailoa at CPT with multiple receivers in the Flex spots.
  While Josh Allen has the rushing ability to land as the CPT on the winning lineup without bringing along a receiver, Tua likely needs to be spreading receiving points to multiple pass-catchers to end up as the winning CPT.
• I’ll limit my rosters to one RB from Miami, but allow multiple Bills RBs.
  Buffalo saw four RBs get at least 25% of the snaps last week – James Cook, Ty Johnson, Ray Davis, and Reggie Gilliam. With plenty of potential touchdowns to go around and cheap price tags on the back-ups, multiple Buffalo RBs could land in the winning lineup. Meanwhile, Achane dominated work with a 93% snap share last year and is unlikely to land in the winning lineup with another Miami RB.
• I’ll pair WRs in the CPT spot with their QB in the Flex spots.
  This is a common-sense correlation rule I usually use. If a WR has a big enough game to end up in the CPT spot, he likely added enough points to his QB to elevate him into a FLEX spot.
• I’ll use, at most, two receivers from one team in the Flex spots unless I’m using their QB as the CPT in that lineup.
  If three receivers from one team land in the winning lineup, it’s likely their QB had the best day of all. Putting the QB at the CPT spot in this case makes logical sense.

A Look at the Prop Market

Let’s take a look at some player props that could provide insight into how the game might play out. Note that these aren’t betting recommendations, but they are props worth keeping in mind when building DFS lineups.

• Keon Coleman – O/U 43.5 Receiving Yards, Over 3.5 Receptions (+129), +170 Anytime TD
  DraftKings: $6,800 ($10,200 CPT)
• Khalil Shakir – O/U 42.5 Receiving Yards, Over 4.5 Receptions (+107), +245 Anytime TD
  DraftKings: $6,600 ($9,900 CPT)

The prop market tells a story here, with Coleman and Shakir carrying nearly identical yardage expectations, but Coleman is more likely to score a touchdown while Shakir is more likely to rack up receptions. I’ll prioritize Coleman by a hair in the CPT/MVP spot, while paying more attention to Shakir in the Flex positions.

We could see some fireworks tonight from the Bills' offense, and this is a crucial AFC East divisional game for Miami if they want to save their season. Let’s build some sharp lineups, enjoy the game, and hope to cash in under the bright lights!

FanDuel Ownership Projections

DraftKings Ownership Projections