Draftkings Reignmaker Core Strategy: Week 14

Dec 10, 2022
 Draftkings Reignmaker Core Strategy: Week 14

Week 14 might mean the final week of the fantasy regular season in redraft leagues, but for Reignmakers Football, it's just another chance to take down a weekly contest. That's what the Reignmakers Core strategy rundown is here for! An Elite Momentum pack was opened on Make It Reign, 4for4's pack-opening video show that includes some early-week strategy. Matt Price was asked to record an episode of The Masked Singer, which left me as the sole show host this week despite having been attacked by a mountain lion the day before. That's definitely more or less exactly not what happened, but I opened up an Elite Momentum pack, and we scored an Elite Gabriel Davis along with a Rare Mark Andrews and Cooper Kupp, Dallas Goedert, and George Pickens Core cards. We'll open up a new pack each week on Make It Reign, which drops every Wednesday on our YouTube Channel.

More DraftKings Reignmaker Content!

For Week 14, 15 players remain designated as "SuperStars," and only one SuperStar card is allowed in each contest lineup:

Reignmakers Superstars: Week 14
Position Player Team
QB Josh Allen BUF
QB Lamar Jackson BAL
QB Justin Herbert LAC
QB Patrick Mahomes KC
QB Jalen Hurts PHI
QB Joe Burrow CIN
RB Austin Ekeler LAC
RB Christian McCaffrey SF
RB Derrick Henry TEN
RB Saquon Barkley NYG
RB Nick Chubb CLE
WR Cooper Kupp LAR
WR Davante Adams LV
WR Justin Jefferson MIN
WR Tyreek Hill MIA

Core SuperStar Strategy

Week 14 SuperStar Strategy

Week 14 brings with it the last of the team bye weeks, and plenty of them, but surprisingly none of them affect any players on the SuperStar list. Justin Herbert, Tyreek Hill, and Austin Ekeler are unavailable for the main slate because their teams play one another on Sunday night, Davante Adams suited up on Thursday night, and Cooper Kupp remains on the IR (and may not return this season).

The top SuperStar QB options this week are Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes, who rank as 4for4's QB1, QB2, QB3, and QB4 respectively. Non-SuperStar Tua Tagovailoa ranks as the QB5, but he plays on Sunday night so is unavailable. Allen faces the Jets who are allowing the fewest aFPA to QBs, Burrow goes up against the 5th-ranked Browns by aFPA to the position, and Mahomes battles the 9th-ranked Broncos. Herbert has the cushiest matchup with the 24th-ranked Dolphins by QB aFPA, while non-SuperStar QB5 Dak Prescott (replacing Tagovailoa) plays the Texans who rank 3rd-best at limiting scoring by opposing QBs by aFPA. Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff are the first available non-superstars, ranking as the QB6 and QB7 for the slate.

4for4's #1-ranked RB for Week 14 Josh Jacobs played Thursday night, #2 Rhamondre Stevenson plays Monday night, and #3 Austin Ekeler plays Sunday night, leaving 4 SuperStar RBs available. Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Nick Chubb are 4for4's RB1, RB2, RB5, and RB7 for the main slate. With multiple great options among 4for4's top 10 projections like Dalvin Cook (RB3), Tony Pollard (RB4), Joe Mixon (RB6), D'Andre Swift (RB9) and Ezekiel Elliott (RB10), using a SuperStar RB would appear to be -EV. Derrick Henry has the best combo of matchup and projection of the group, facing a Jaguars defense that's allowed the 10th-most aFPA to RBs, followed by Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott facing the Texans, who've given up the 4th-most RB aFPA.

Justin Jefferson is again 4for4's top-projected WR for the week, and with Cooper Kupp on IR and Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams off the main slate, he's the only SuperStar WR available. He's projected for 23.0 PPR points, far enough ahead of main-slate WR2 Amon-Ra St. Brown with 20.5 points to earn a SuperStar draft selection.

Core Marketplace Values

Kirk Cousins, QB MIN - $8.00

Cousins projects as the QB8 for Week 14, facing a Detroit defense that ranks dead last in aFPA to QBs. This game projects as the highest-scoring of the week, and the Lions have actually been extremely good at halting RB production, giving even more reason for the Vikings to continue to lean on the passing game.

D'Andre Swift RB DET - $3.99

D'Andre Swift plays on the other side of the same Vikings @ Lions game, and as Detroit's primary receiving RB, Swift's prospects aren't dimmed by a projected pass-heavy approach by the Lions. The Vikings have allowed the 14th-highest aFPA to RBs overall, and they're particularly vulnerable to RBs who are utilized as receivers, allowing 573 receiving yards (4th-most) on 88 receptions (6th-most) to the position.

Tyler Lockett, WR SEA - $6.00

Tyler Lockett has been on fire over his last 5 games. He'll be looking to stretch his touchdown streak to 6 straight games, he's not scored fewer than 13.2 PPR fantasy points in any game during this stretch, and he's coming off a 27.8-point PPR Week 13 that resulted in the overall WR5 ranking for the week. Carolina is allowing the 9th-highest aFPA to WRs, and the Seahawks have ironically become a top-12 pass-heavy team (ranking 11th) operating at the 8th-fastest pace after trading Russell Wilson away in the off-season and running with Geno Smith at QB. Just because almost nobody saw it coming doesn't mean you shouldn't take advantage of a good thing!

Week 14 Tournament Strategy

RMF Classic - CORE - $50K Fiat Frenzy [$5K to 1st]

Let's focus on the largest Core tournament, the $50K Fiat Frenzy that includes the 10 Sunday afternoon games, excluding the LAR@LV Thursday night game, the LAC@MIA Sunday night game, and the ARI@NE Monday night game. The payout structure awards $5,000 to first place, payouts down to $5 for 4,150th place, and a Core Plus pack prize all the way down to 6,150th place. As of Saturday morning there are 11,483 entries in the Week 14 contest, and you can expect between 20,000 to 24,000 entries by kickoff.

Top Options at Each Position

QB: Jared Goff, DET

Ok, so I know Jared Goff isn't the top QB option for the week, but hear me out here. The Lions are very slight home favorites facing the division-rival Vikings in a game projected to have the highest point-total of the week at 53.5. Minnesota has allowed the 6th-most aFPA to QBs, the most aFPA to WRs, the 7th-most aFPA to TEs, and the 14th-most aFPA to RBs. They're not stopping much of anything. Meanwhile, Detroit's defense gives up the highest QB aFPA, 8th-highest WR aFPA, 3rd-highest TE aFPA, and have actually been quite good at stopping the run, giving up the 3rd-lowest aFPA to RBs. This makes them an extreme pass-funnel defense, yet another ingredient that makes this game likely to light up the scoreboard. Both QBs are in play, but I expect more drafters to choose Kirk Cousins between the two. Jared Goff is averaging 34 pass atts/g because the Lions are one of the faster teams to snap the ball (10th in seconds per play overall) but run more frequently than all but 10 teams. Last week in a blowout win, the Lions played a bit slower on a per-snap basis, but passed significantly more than their season average (ranking 14th in pass percentage for the week), en route to a 40-14 win and a PPR QB4 finish for Goff. With D'Andre Swift appearing to be fully healthy, Amon-Ra St. Brown continuing to dominate and D.J. Chark's return presenting a legitimate WR2 option, Goff is a good bet to repeat his Week 13 high-end QB1 outing.

RB: Tony Pollard, DAL

The Cowboys have themselves a great QB in Dak Prescott, but that doesn't mean they don't love to establish the run. Only the Falcons, Bears, and Titans run more frequently than Dallas, and Tony Pollard is the primary beneficiary. Ezekiel Elliott gets his share as well, but for PPR scoring, Pollard has earned 10.3% of Dallas' target share, nearly double Elliott's 5.6%. Both RBs have 8 TDs, and the Cowboys favor Elliott slightly in the red zone, but Pollard's 259 additional receiving yards and 3 receiving TDs versus Elliott's 51 receiving yards and 1 TD more than makes up for this slight red zone discrepancy. Dallas hosts Houston for a game with a projected 46-point game total, with Dallas projecting for 31.5 of those points. The Texans are an extreme run-funnel defense and struggle to score offensively, having given up the 6th-most aFPA to RBs, the 2nd-fewest aFPA to WRs and the 3rd-fewest aFPA to QBs. Expect the Cowboys to continue their run-heavy ways this week.

WR: Justin Jefferson, MIN

4for4 projects Justin Jefferson as the WR1 overall this week, and for multiple good reasons. He'll play in the game with the highest projected total score, against a Lions defense allowing the 8th-most aFPA to WRs, and he's commanding a 30.2% market share of the Vikings' targets. Jefferson is averaging over 10 targets per game, and not only are the Vikings the 3rd-most pass-heavy team in the red zone, but Jefferson is also tied with Stefon Diggs for the league lead in wide receiver red zone targets at 21. Drafting SuperStar Justin Jefferson is the main reason why I'm leaning toward drafting a non-SuperStar QB, but with the notably difficult matchups for the top SuperStar QBs, I expect it'll prove the right move.

WR/TE: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET

Amon-Ra St. Brown

is the 2nd-highest projected WR on the main slate by 4for4 for Week 14, and is another player that's part of the projected shootout between the Vikings and Lions. The Vikings are allowing the most aFPA to opposing WRs of any team, and the Lions are going to need to pass quite a bit to live up to their projected point total. St. Brown is the PPR WR6 through 13 games, and if you exclude his rough early-season 4-week stretch from Weeks 4 through Week 7 that included a missed game, a team bye and two games at less than 100%, he's averaging over 10 targets per game. No WR has outscored St. Brown over the last two games, and he continues a 3-game stretch of facing teams among the bottom 4 teams in aFPA to WRs.

FLEX: Garrett Wilson, NYJ

Garrett Wilson may be a rookie, but he's certainly not playing like it. I was bullish on Wilson before the NFL draft, but I wasn't terribly psyched about his eventual destination with the New York Jets and QB Zach Wilson. But now Mike White is under center for the Jets, and he's shown a lot of love to G-Dubs. Wilson's market share of team targets has risen from 22.1% prior to Week 12 to 27.7% in the two weeks since. Wilson has been the PPR WR3 over the past two games, and he's commanding a whopping 30.2% of New York's targets inside the opponent's 20, and 38.5% of the Jets' targets when inside the 10. The Jets have been the 4th-most pass-happy team in the red zone since White has taken over at QB, and Wilson has now amassed 16 red zone targets, 6th among all WRs. The Jets visit the Bills for a game projected for 44 total points, and Buffalo's primary defensive shortcoming is against WRs, as they've allowed the 4th-most aFPA to WRs.

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