Breakout Receiver Model: Week 4

Welcome back to the breakout receiver model. The model has been trained on the first three weeks of data; each week, the model will be updated and used to identify players who may be over- or underperforming the value of their opportunity—whether due to luck, skill, or some mix of the two. We’ll use the model to identify buy-low and sell-high candidates for season-long managers. Then we’ll analyze the main slate to locate players with a higher likelihood of hitting a ceiling performance than the public perceives. Let’s dig into the data for this week.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, created the current iteration of a receiver “buy-low” model that uses machine learning to identify underperforming wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout. The model leverages historical data and recent player performance to determine which players have received opportunity that are typically more valuable than their recent production indicates.

Features include air yards and routes-run data to quantify opportunity, plus a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance to better estimate the likelihood of a bounce-back. The model most heavily weights the last three weeks of data.

Underperforming Players (Buy Low)

This chart displays both a player’s expected production (the faint bar) vs. their actual production (the solid bar) as measured by 4for4’s expected fantasy points metric.

Top Buy-Low Players

Brian Thomas Jr.

Brian Thomas Jr. has not lived up to his first- or second-round draft status so far this season. Many fantasy prognosticators expected him to follow up his incredible rookie year with another strong campaign as the Jaguars’ top passing-game option in a revamped, more efficient offense. Even in PPR formats, Thomas has not yet eclipsed 10 fantasy points in any week. However, this may have more to do with variance than a true shift in role or talent. He has caught just seven of 25 targets so far, well behind league-wide rates. Some fantasy managers may be willing to trade him at a discount—the game-theoretical and psychological sting of a high draft pick producing fewer than 30 points through three weeks could prompt a sell-low. We anticipate he will trend back toward form and reassert himself among the league’s elite at the position over time.

Jerry Jeudy

It’s hard to deny that Jerry Jeudy is the most talented pass catcher on the Browns’ roster. Still, his performance has disappointed through three weeks, including a one-catch outing in Week 3 against the Packers. Preseason concerns about Browns receivers were largely tied to potential volatility in passing volume stemming from uncertainty at quarterback. With Flacco named the starter—arguably the best-case outcome for Cleveland’s receivers—Jeudy should benefit from a stable role as the top option as the offense settles.

Breakout Receiver Model: Buy-Low Candidates - Week 7

Overperforming Players (Sell High)

This chart displays both a player’s expected production (the faint bar) vs. their actual production (the solid bar) as measured by 4for4’s expected fantasy points metric.

Top Sell-High Players

Michael Pittman

When the Colts’ solution to their passing-game question was Daniel Jones replacing Anthony Richardson, it didn’t inspire much preseason confidence. Instead, Jones has flipped the script and led the Colts to a 3-0 start with strong early-season output. He has sustained his own fantasy value and supported that of his receivers. That said, while Michael Pittman has started hot, the breakout model indicates he is significantly overperforming expectation. Given Pittman’s history of high output and favorable public sentiment around his talent and role, he may be an ideal trade piece for managers looking to capture added value via a sell-high.

Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle is also outperforming expectations to date. While his fantasy results have been solid through three weeks, they’re buoyed by touchdowns in each of his last two games. The underlying reality is less rosy: Waddle remains the clear No. 2 behind Tyreek Hill in a passing game that has looked mediocre overall, within an offense not projected for dramatically high scoring this season. If team scoring remains muted, Waddle’s touchdown-driven upside will be harder to sustain.

Breakout Receiver Model: Sell-High Candidates - Week 7

Top DFS Breakout Targets

Quantifying expected versus observed performance is crucial for projections analysts. At 4for4, we produce fantasy-point projections for the major daily fantasy sites. Below-expectation outcomes can meaningfully affect pricing and ownership. As such, players the model flags as breakout candidates—based on strong opportunity relative to recent results—can offer notable DFS value when their projections outpace their salaries this week.