FanDuel Week 1 Cash Game Picks and Strategy

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In this space each week will be the top cash plays on FanDuel with strategies on how to build a profitable cash lineup. The backbone of 4for4’s cash game approach is our proprietary value metric, which goes beyond simple point per dollar projections. That value calculation extends to a player’s odds of hitting cash game value based on their implied volatility according to their floor, median and ceiling projections.

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Quarterbacks

The top fantasy quarterbacks in the league are more mobile than ever before and those mobile quarterbacks are often going to be the best cash game values every week. Because 40 yards on the ground is equivalent to a passing touchdown, in terms of FanDuel points, the floor of a rushing quarterback cannot be matched by drop-back-and-throw signal-callers. With Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, and Dak Prescott off the main slate, Lamar Jackson ($9,400) and Cam Newton ($7,300) top Week 1’s value report, both as big favorites.

Baltimore is the only team on the main slate with an implied point total above 28 and little has changed from 2019 to suggest that Jackson will be any less dominant in 2020. Even if Lamar does surrender some rushing attempts to his loaded backfield or regress in the touchdown column, it likely won’t matter much this week against a Browns defense that enters the season as a bottom-10 unit in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks.

The only apparent issue with rostering Jackson in cash games is his astronomically high salary. Preseason usually brings about a free square or two by kickoff but with an abbreviated offseason, salaries are relatively tight for a Week 1 slate. Still, 4for4’s optimal lineup suggests using Lamar in a stars-and-scrubs approach to get to Jackson.

Players that prefer a more balanced roster allocation—or those trying to afford Christian McCaffrey—can opt for Newton who makes his Patriots debut at home as a 6.5-point favorite against a Dolphins defense that enters 2020 ranked 27th in quarterback aFPA. Miami did improve the back end of their defense this offseason and it’s yet to be seen if home-field will mean much without fans, but Newton offers the rushing upside desired from a cash game quarterback. With Julian Edelman in the slot and pass-catching specialist James White in the backfield, look for Newton to lean on quick, easy throws as he did early in 2018.

Anyone not paying up for Lamar that is trepidatious about rostering Cam in his debut can look to Josh Allen ($7,900). While the Bills quarterback doesn’t pop in 4for4’s value column, he has virtually the same odds as Newton to hit cash game value. Allen is the only quarterback besides Jackson to rush at least 100 times last season and with the addition of Stefon Diggs, this offense has as much upside as any in the league. Buffalo is favored by 6.5 with a low game total (39.5) but early-season lines are the most exploitable—recall that last season started off with the Ravens favored by a touchdown over the Dolphins in a game that had a total of just 41 points.

Running Backs

UPDATE: Miles Sanders is OUT Sunday. Boston Scott ($4,700) is the top value of the week. If Tevin Coleman decides to sit out because of air quality concerns, however, Raheem Mostert ($6,200) will be a top value, as Well.

The pool of cash game running backs is quite concentrated to start the season. The salaries of the top plays are spread out enough that it doesn’t make sense to stray from this core except to add some differentiation across multiple 50/50s or double ups.

Christian McCaffrey ($10,000) is the Lamar Jackson of running backs—his value and floor are unmatched but rostering him requires a great deal of sacrifice at other positions. Surprisingly, there is an avenue to rostering CMC and Lamar together in the ultimate stars-and-scrubs build but this requires taking a huge question mark at running back in Antonio Gibson ($4,600).

The Washington running back grades out as the top overall value below $6,000 and a top-10 value at his position but this will certainly be a committee situation against the Eagles. While Gibson will likely handle all passing-down work in what should be a negative game script for Washington, the downside of foregoing three high-volume backs isn’t a strategy worth deploying on a half-PPR site for those that aren’t hellbent on a CMC team.

Josh Jacobs ($8,200) is the player to hit the lock button on this week. Although not even the best running back in his own game, Jacobs will kick off the year against a Panthers defense that opens 2020 ranked 31st in running back aFPA and may be even worse than last season after losing most of their front seven. Las Vegas, on the other hand, ranks sixth in Justin Edwards’s initial offensive line rankings. The concerns of Jacobs losing any passing game appeal were assuaged when the Raiders cut Theo Riddick and traded Lynn Bowden. Jalen Richard still looms but Jacobs’s 2020 value may peak in Week 1.

Outside of the Panthers/Raiders matchup, Miles Sanders ($6,800) is the top play at running back. In a smash spot against Washington, Sanders is priced behind 12 other backs on the main slate. The Eagles rookie struggled with a hamstring injury in August but he returned to practice Wednesday and will likely carry most of the load as a 5.5-point favorite. With Jalen Reagor and Alshon Jeffery out and Dallas Goedert dealing with an injured hand, Sanders could be second in line for targets behind Zach Ertz while DeSean Jackson retains a low-volume, albeit high-upside role.

Like Las Vegas-Carolina, the Chargers-Bengals game offers two viable cash game plays at running back. Austin Ekeler ($7,700) will serve as the primary back for Los Angeles, a role that saw him produce 18.5 FanDuel points per game in seven contests over the last two seasons when Melvin Gordon was out. Mobile quarterbacks don’t typically throw to running backs as much as their stationary counterparts, but Tyrod Taylor has ranked in the middle of the pack in running back target share in his career and the Chargers should have a fairly concentrated offense with limited weapons beyond Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry. Cincinnati enters Week 1 as a bottom-five unit against running backs.

The Bengals are underdogs but by just 3.5 points, so Joe Mixon ($7,300) isn’t much of a concern to lose work because of negative game script. Despite being one of the most pass-heavy offenses in 2019, Cincinnati still offered Mixon 41% of team touches, the seventh-highest rate in the league. After signing a massive extension last week, that role is locked in for the near future.

Wide Receivers

There are usable receivers at every pricing tier this week but the preferred cash game strategy, like most slates, should be prioritizing high-volume backs and saving money here. Michael Thomas ($8,800), Davante Adams ($8,000) and Julio Jones ($8,200) are all great stand-alone plays but spending any higher than Allen Robinson ($7,200) means sacrificing too much elsewhere. Robinson, along with Anthony Miller ($5,400), will benefit from facing off against a Lions secondary that was one of the worst in the league last season and lost their best corner this offseason. Mitch Trubisky was named the Week 1 starter which at least can give players confidence in Robinson’s volume after he ranked third in targets catching balls from Trubisky last year.

While wide receiver scoring typically doesn’t rest on the fate of implied totals and over/unders, D.J. Moore ($7,100) is a pivot off of ARob for those that prefer players in a shootout scenario. Passers exhibited Lamar-Jackson-like efficiency against the Raiders in 2019, and Las Vegas’ secondary is now led by a rookie.

The sweet spot at wide receiver this week is the $6,000 range.

DK Metcalf ($6,400), Tyler Lockett ($6,800) and Calvin Ridley ($6,600) will share the field in what should be the shootout of Week 1. Metcalf and Lockett form one of the most concentrated passing attacks in the league and the Seahawks appear ready to let Russell Wilson’s arm loose. Ridley finally has his opportunity to be the clear number two in one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league.

Both Terry McLaurin ($6,500) and D.J. Chark ($6,600) will have their Week 1 outlook enhanced by negative game script in offenses where they have virtually no competition for targets. Washington is a 5.5-point dog, while Jacksonville is getting eight points, the largest spread on the slate.

With Philadelphia’s pass-catching corps banged up, DeSean Jackson ($5,700) is going to be cheap chalk—in theory, this is a spot to fade. Jackson is a low-volume, boom-bust play and differentiating at a high-variance position such as wide receiver is an easy way to lap the field in cash games. On the other hand, FanDuel scoring favors touchdowns over volume, especially among pass-catchers, a DJax is the clear WR1 in a blowup spot for the Eagles. Antonio Gibson is the only sub-$6,000 player that registers as a better value than Jackson, but he could end up as the highest-owned wide receiver in Week 1.

Marquise Brown ($5,900) currently projects for similar ownership to Jackson but Brown’s could come in on the low side since he will spend much of his day matched up against Denzel Ward, while Jackson exceeds his high-end projection. Both have similar upside and Brown is more likely to dominate target share than Jackson.

Tight Ends

Players that don’t want to pay up for Lamar can still reap the benefits of Baltimore’s passing game by doubling up on Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews ($7,400). Andrews, George Kittle ($8,000) and Zach Ertz ($6,600) are all on offenses favored by at least 5.5 and none have overwhelming competition for targets—the latter point is especially true if Goedert is limited and Deebo Samuel sits or is limited. This is a pay up for tight end week and the mid-range receivers allow for such a build.

Hunter Henry ($6,000) projects as a top-five value at his position in an offense devoid of pass-catchers after Keenan Allen and Ekeler. As Evan Silva pointed out earlier in the week, WIth Mike Williams out, Allen may be forced to play outside, which should boost Henry’s target expectation.

The top-salary saving option is Hayden Hurst ($5,200). He is inheriting a role that saw Austin Hooper average nearly 12 FD points per game last season and Atlanta should be in a high-scoring contest against a Seahawks defense that opens 2020 in the bottom-10 against tight ends. The risk here is that Hurst’s role on his new team is not automatic, especially with an abbreviated offseason.

Defense and Special Teams

The formula for finding a reliable defense is simple—look for favorites, ideally at home (although that may not be as relevant in the COVID-19 landscape). If an opposing offense is pass-heavy to begin with, that is a recipe for success. Teams with a big lead, force their opponents into predictable passing situations—that leads to pressures and ultimately sacks and turnovers. In some cases, a defense in a shootout can be better than a defense that will hold their opponent to a low score but without many turnover opportunities.

As the season progresses, defensive pressures, offensive line rankings, and passing rates will drive decisions along with betting lines. Early in the season, relying on point spreads, preseason offensive line rankings and, of course, the 4for4 value report is sufficient.

Consider these defenses in favorable spots:

Cash Viable Plays

• QB: Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Josh Allen
• RB: Boston Scott, Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, Raheem Mostert (if Tevin Colemon opts to sit)
• WR: Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Allen Robinson, D.J. Moore, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, D.J. Chark, DeSean Jackson, Marquise Brown, Anthony Miller
• TE: George Kittle, Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz, Hunter Henry, Hayden Hurst
• DEF: Patriots, Bills, Ravens, Eagles, Colts

Full Slate Notes

• The Chiefs-Texans game is projected for 54.5 points and Kansas City is favored by nine. Three of the top six stack values include Patrick Mahomes ($9,500) and one of his pass-catchers.
• With Brandin Cooks limited in practice on Wednesday, Will Fuller ($6,000) is a fantastic “run it back” play.
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($7,200) is a top-eight value across all positions against a Texans defense that starts 2020 ranked in the bottom 10 in aFPA to running backs.
• The only top-seven two-man stack outside of the Chiefs or Ravens is Dak Prescott ($8,400) and CeeDee Lamb ($5,200). With Amari Cooper drawing shadow coverage from Jalen Ramsey, ownership will likely fall on Micahel Gallup.
• Rostering Ezekiel Elliott ($8,700)—who is a top-three running back value—on Sunday night rather than a high-priced back from the main slate will let anyone playing the Thursday–Monday slate make late-swap decisions and switch to Saquon Barkley ($9,000) or Derrick Henry ($8,400) if they wish.
• A.J. Brown ($6,700) is the only wide receiver not on the main slate that projects as a top-five value at his position. With Von Miller out and Bradley Chubb limited, Ryan Tannehill could have all day to throw on Monday.
• The Giants are one of four defenses that come into the season ranked 20th or worse in aFPA to every skill position.