99 Stats and a Mitch Ain’t One

Jul 27, 2026

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Here are the 99 stats I keep coming back to as draft season heats up—efficiency metrics, usage splits, vacated touches, and the spots where ADP hasn't quite caught up to the data. Organized by position and numbered: 99 stats, and a Mitch ain't one.

Quarterbacks

The Jared Goff Gambit is back on.

Jared Goff finished QB7 and QB11 the last two seasons but is going as the QB16. The home/road split remains stark—[1] 20.8 fantasy points per game at home versus 15.6 on the road over the last three seasons—which makes him a midrange QB1 at a midrange QB2 price if you’re willing to platoon him in a QBBC/streaming approach.

Josh Allen's floor is the safest thing in fantasy football.

Josh Allen has finished QB1 and QB2 the last two seasons while playing all 34 games, and the week-to-week reliability is the key: [2] he's scored 20-plus fantasy points in 59% of his games over that stretch with only four games below 10. The 93rd-percentile EPA per dropback and a third straight season with 12-plus rushing touchdowns underscore the talent and rushing upside. He's the QB1 at pick 35, and the price is reasonable if the third round gets weird, which it sometimes does.

Jayden Daniels' rushing floor survived a tough season.

The injury-marred 2025 (QB33 overall in seven games) buries the lead: [3] Jayden Daniels still averaged a healthy 45.4 rushing yards in the five games where he played at least 87% of the snaps, and in his four full games he still averaged 19.7 points. His QB3 ADP is dependent entirely on the healthy 2024 version, but if that version shows up, the rushing alone makes him a weekly QB1.

Jaxson Dart was a top-six quarterback once he took the job.

From Week 4 on, Jaxson Dart averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game across 12 starts, a top-six pace over the final 15 weeks. The ground game drove the production: [4] 40.6 rushing yards per start with nine rushing touchdowns. The 42nd-percentile CPOE is a red flag that argues his passing still needs work, and sophomore quarterbacks come with wide ranges of outcomes, but at QB13 in the ninth round you're paying high-end QB2 capital for top-six type production.

Mike McDaniel's track record hints at a Justin Herbert efficiency spike.

Justin Herbert averaged 7.3 yards per attempt last season against a 7.2 career mark, and his new play-caller has moved that needle before: [5] McDaniel took Tua Tagovailoa from a career 6.6 YPA to 8.9 in his first season running the Dolphins' offense. Even a partial version of that leap, paired with Herbert's career-high 498 rushing yards in 2025, keeps him comfortably in the QB1 conversation at QB9 draft capital.

Lamar Jackson's second half was a genuine red flag.

The 2025 collapse was steep: [6] Lamar Jackson averaged 23.8 points per game before the season's midpoint and 12.0 in eight injury-marred games down the stretch, with his rushing production falling to 26.9 yards per game and two total touchdowns. A new play-caller (Declan Doyle) and 18% of games missed over five seasons make the overall-QB2 draft capital seem riskier than it's been in years.

Drake Maye was arguably the most efficient passer in football last season.

Drake Maye's second-year leap produced a QB2 overall finish at 21.0 points per game with [7] 100th-percentile marks in both EPA per dropback and CPOE—the most efficient and most accurate qualified passer in the league, while scoring 20-plus points in nine of 16 games and never dipping below 12.0. He did it with arguably the weakest supporting cast of any top-10 quarterback, and now A.J. Brown is in the fold.

Brock Purdy was the QB2 on a per-game basis and is priced three tiers lower.

The QB24 season-long finish is wildly misleading: [8] in his eight games, Brock Purdy averaged 21.5 points per game—QB2 on a per-game basis—with a 96th-percentile EPA per dropback and 98th-percentile CPOE, closing on 26.2, 30.9, and 36.9-point games in Weeks 15-17. San Francisco added Mike Evans and Christian Kirk, and George Kittle is targeting a Week 1 return. At QB12 in the eighth round, he's a steal, though given his injury history it makes sense to draft a quality backup.

Trevor Lawrence finished QB4 and got stronger as the season went on.

The healthy version of Trevor Lawrence finally showed up: a QB4 overall finish at 19.7 points per game, and [9] his scoring jumped from 16.6 points per game before the season's midpoint to 22.7 after it, with 21.1 rushing yards per game and nine rushing touchdowns. The 29th-percentile CPOE is a concern, but Year 2 with the offensive mind of Liam Coen and a fairly deep receiving corps make the QB10 capital in the eighth round look fair.

Jordan Love's efficiency was elite. The volume was the problem.

[10] Jordan Love posted a 98th-percentile EPA per dropback and 96th-percentile CPOE, while finishing a respectable QB13, though removing the three games he left early with injury lifts his average to 17.2 points per game. A healthy Christian Watson, a returning Tucker Kraft, and the emerging Matthew Golden give Green Bay reasons to open it up. At QB18 in the 10th round, the disparity between his talent and his output is the potential value.

Caleb Williams finished QB6 while throwing like a QB25.

The Year 2 jump was real—QB6 overall at 18.8 points per game with a rushing floor of 22.8 yards per game—but [11] his CPOE ranked at the 16th percentile, marking him as one of the least accurate qualified passers in football even as the fantasy points piled up. Losing D.J. Moore doesn't help the accuracy problem, though Luther Burden, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland are capable of picking up the slack. The midrange QB1 price pays for the Ben Johnson ceiling and accepts the potential inconsistency.

Malik Willis has scored like a QB1 every time he's started.

The sample is tiny but loud: [12] in his three starts over the last two seasons, Malik Willis scored 13.0, 25.4, and 31.5 fantasy points—the last one a 60-yard, two-touchdown rushing explosion paired with 288 passing yards in Week 17. Now he's the projected starter in Miami, where a bad roster should mean heavy garbage-time volume on top of one of the best rushing floors outside the elite tier. At QB21 in the 11th round, he's this year's Konami Code breakout candidate.

Despite a year-over-year decline, Jalen Hurts still has one of the most bankable rushing floors in the league.

Jalen Hurts has finished QB6 and QB7 the last two seasons while playing nearly every game, and the rushing is why: [13] 26.3 rushing yards per game with eight rushing touchdowns, backed by an 82nd-percentile CPOE. The second half was uneven (21.7 points per game through the first eight games, 15.7 after), and A.J. Brown is gone, but Philadelphia traded up for Makai Lemon, DeVonta Smith is ready for the WR1 role, and Saquon Barkley keeps the pressure off. The QB7 price in the sixth round buys one of the safest floors at the position.

Patrick Mahomes rediscovered his legs at age 30, then he tore his ACL.

Patrick Mahomes has finished QB10 in total points in back-to-back seasons, but [14] he was the QB4 on a per-game basis last year while setting career highs in rushing yards (422) and rushing touchdowns (5) at age 30—his sixth straight season with 307-plus rushing yards. Rashee Rice is an alpha, Xavier Worthy is finally healthy, and Kenneth Walker stabilizes the running game. His QB11 ADP reflects his ACL recovery and the potential for a significant drop in rushing production. Still, given his weapons, Mahomes represents midrange-QB1 upside with low-end QB1 draft capital.

Jacoby Brissett was a top-eight quarterback for three months, and he's nearly free.

Once he found his footing, the production was real: [15] from Week 6 through the end of the season, Jacoby Brissett averaged 18.9 points per game over 12 starts—top-eight production at the position over that stretch—with a 67th-percentile CPOE. The supporting cast is solid, too: Trey McBride, 2025 breakout Michael Wilson, Jeremiyah Love, and whatever Marvin Harrison Jr. becomes. He's going as the QB30 in the 17th round, which makes him one of the better third quarterbacks in two-QB formats.