Scott Smith’s 2023 NFL Mock Draft Version 2.0
NFL draft season is in full swing as the combine and most pro days have been completed. Medical rechecks will commence the first week of April as teams will do their best to keep their intentions secluded. As the draft nears, closed information is key to projections. Following beat writers, chasing down rumors, and tracking pre-draft visits are the breadcrumbs needed to link players to team needs. A lot has occurred since my first mock draft of the year and this is how I see the first round shaking out with the current information on hand.
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2023 NFL Mock Draft Version 2.0
1. Carolina Panthers - C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio St.
The Panthers have publicly kept their options open when it comes to the top QB prospects. Privately, sources link Stroud as the most likely selection with whispers of Anthony Richardson being part of the discussion. Bookmakers reflect this thought process as odds continue to move in Stroud’s direction.
Analysts point to Stroud being the preferred fit for HC Frank Reich and point to the fact that he has always coached QBs 6’3” or taller. Publicly, Stroud seemingly got the reception you would expect of the top overall selection at the Ohio State Pro Day. Stroud is the selection here and our team has an official play listed in the discord.
2. Houston Texans - Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
The knock on Young is and always will be his size. Young measured in the same range as Kyler Murray which could make some scouts more comfortable with Young’s outlier frame. Behind the scenes, Young has reportedly impressed teams during interviews with his ability to digest defenses and process information. Nick Caserio is well-connected with Nick Saban and the Alabama program. Houston will be well positioned to consume all the information needed to be comfortable adding Young as the new face of their franchise.
3. Tennessee Titans (via trade w/ARI) - Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
The Titans have been actively shopping many of their top players. The early returns on Malik Willis were not positive and Ryan Tannehill enters what looks to be his final season in Tennessee. If the Titans are active in attempting to trade up for their QB of the future, Jeffery Simmons could be part of a package to do so. In this scenario, new GM Ran Carthon moves up and targets the massive upside of Richardson. Tannehill can act as a bridge and mentor to Richardson who will need time to develop. A red-shirt rookie year projects as the best situation for Richardson.
The other glaring need for Tennessee is along the offensive line. If the compensation to move up to this spot is too expensive, targeting the top tackles in the draft will be a priority for Carthon as pick 11.
4. Indianapolis Colts - Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Chris Ballard and the Colts are in a tough spot as they will likely be deciding between Richardson or Levis. The Cardinals seem to be an obvious candidate to trade down based on their team needs and could spoil the party in Indianapolis. The Colts would be wise to explore the possibility of acquiring Lamar Jackson, but the logistics of a deal may be more than they are willing to part with.
The Colts have tried the veteran route with Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan with no success which could lead to Chris Ballard being on the hot seat. Newly minted HC Shane Steichen would seemingly have the Colts leaning a bit more toward Richardson considering the success Steichen had with the development of Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia. In this situation, the Colts are left settling for the fourth QB off the board in Levis.
5. Seattle Seahawks - Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama
Seattle brass was at all the big pro days and made sure to pump out selfies with each of the top QB prospects along the way. It makes sense that they would conduct their due diligence on the top four QBs as Geno Smith’s extension equates to a one-year deal should they want to move on. Smith would also be a solid bridge should Seattle want to invest in a player like Richardson that may need some time to develop into an NFL starter.
On the other hand, it could all be propaganda for the board to fall exactly the way it has here with four QBs coming off the board. The Seahawks need help along the defensive line and the edge. Anderson projects as the top defensive player in the draft and would be an easy selection for a team that will prioritize the pass rush in this draft.
6. Detroit Lions - Christian Gonzales, DB, Oregon
Jalen Carter is a player that would make a lot of sense for the Lions in this spot. The problem is that Carter has torpedoed his draft stock with legal issues and off-the-field concerns. There comes a point where the talent will be too much to pass up. As of this publication, the Lions are doing a deep dive into Carter as a person and a player. They have a top-30 visit scheduled. Early information out of Detroit is that they were “severely turned off” by the performance of Carter at his pro day and have serious concerns about Carter fitting into the culture the Lions are trying to build as a team
As the draft process plays out, the Lions could find themselves more comfortable with Carter. Until I get more information on that happening, I will project a cleaner prospect like Christian Gonzalez as the pick. Gonzalez has had a solid showing throughout the draft process and projects as the top CB in the draft. There is some concern about the fit in Detroit as Gonzalez played primarily zone coverage in college, leading some to liken Devon Witherspoon as a better selection here.
7. Las Vegas Raiders - Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
The Raiders are likely more optimistic about the viability of Jimmy Garoppolo’s success than most fans. That doesn’t mean that they will be out on QBs in this draft and they could be another team in contention to move up in a trade with the Cardinals. The Raiders' defensive woes over the years have been more at fault for their demise rather than QB play. Wilson compares similarly to a player rostered by the Raiders in Chandler Jones. Jones turned 33 years old this year and would be the perfect mentor to Wilson as he starts off as a rotational piece to the Las Vegas pass rush and eventually a starter.
The Raiders are also a team that has reportedly taken Jalen Carter off their draft board.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Robinson is one of the more polarizing prospects in the draft. The talent isn’t questioned as there is little argument against him being the top RB prospect in the draft. Most teams consider Robinson to be a top-10 talent. The pushback comes from the positional value as the NFL has gone away from RBs being selected in the first round. The Falcons went against the grain when they drafted Kyle Pitts in the top-5 and could do so again by taking Robinson here.
The Falcons got solid production out of Tyler Allgeier as a rookie in 2022. However, he is not a talent that would preclude the Falcons from selecting Robinson in this spot. Tyree Wilson, Christian Gonzales, and Devon Witherspoon are other players that will be in play here.
9. Chicago Bears - Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
The Chicago Bears have had a solid off-season. They received a nice haul in return for the top overall pick in this draft from Carolina. The addition of D.J. Moore as well as some free agent moves point towards a team that is looking to build around Justin Fields. Paris Johnson Jr. impressed scouts at the Ohio State pro day and rumors are that he cemented his stock as the top tackle to come off the board. Johnson and Fields played together in college and remain in constant contact. The selection of Johnson would put Fields in the best position to succeed or be the much-needed protection for another young signal caller should Chicago look to move on from Fields.
The Bears will be in position to select the best available talent which could be DT Jalen Carter if they are comfortable with the off-field concerns.
10. Philadelphia Eagles - Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
The Eagles have lost a number of players along the defensive line in free agency. Fletcher Cox has been the anchor for the Eagles defense and is set to become a free agent in 2024. The Eagles like to build from the inside out and had no problems taking Jordan Davis in 2023. Adding another interior talent from Georgia in the form of Jalen Carter would be a coup for Howie Roseman. Roseman has done a remarkable job building the Eagles into a perennial Super Bowl contender. Getting Carter at what should be his floor continues that trend.
11. Arizona Cardinals (via trade w/TEN) - Devon Witherspoon, DB, Illinois
Witherspoon is in contention to be the top CB off the board come draft day. Arizona had a formal visit with Witherspoon at the combine and continues to evaluate him as a prospect. The Cardinals will have multiple suitors to move up and I expect a deal to happen prior to the draft. A move this far down would likely return valuable assets to help fill multiple holes on the Arizona roster. Witherspoon would be a solid addition to a secondary in desperation.
12. Houston Texans - Lukas Van Ness, DL, Iowa
The Texans could go a number of different directions here. WR could make sense with the recent trade of Brandin Cooks. Getting a weapon to pair with Bryce Young would go a long way toward developing an offensive identity for Houston. Ultimately I believe Houston allows new HC Demeco Ryans to grab a new toy and begin to mold this defense into his own. Van Ness is rising up draft boards due to the size and strength combination he offers. Van Ness has shown the ability to rush from the inside and outside and could be a key building block for the Houston defense moving forward.
13. New York Jets - Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Early reports on Mekhi Becton are positive. He seems to be in great shape after dropping weight and clearly putting in work during the offseason. The Jets may be softening on finding a replacement and could look elsewhere in the draft. Adding a player with polish and versatility like Skoronski would allow the Jets to play him at guard and have an insurance policy should Becton break down again during the regular season.
14. New England Patriots - Joey Porter Jr., DB, Penn State
The primary needs for New England come along the offensive line and the secondary. Joey Porter Jr. has the NFL pedigree that the Patriots will covet. Porter has improved in each of his collegiate seasons and would be a valued addition to an aging secondary devoid of any premium talent.
15. Green Bay Packers - Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
Myles Murphy fits the Packers draft history. Plus, he offers athletic traits at a premium position. Murphy comps similarly to Rashan Gary. While Murphy doesn’t have the production numbers you would hope for, he offers elite athleticism and acceleration traits that are valued at the NFL level.
16. Washington Commanders - Brian Branch, S, Alabama
The Commanders appear set to punt the QB position this season and roll with a combination of Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett. Washington has made moves to solidify their offensive line and could still look to go that route should the top prospects drop to this spot. Washington will be a team that should look to trade back in the first round as their needs may not align with the talent in this range. Rivera has consistently gone to the Alabama well for defensive players and does so again here with Branch.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers - Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
The offensive line was a struggle for Pittsburgh in 2022. Surrounding Kenny Pickett with players that can protect him will only help his development. Jones has limited experience as a sophomore but showed his potential at Georgia en route to back-to-back NCAA championships. Jones has the athleticism and upside to develop and anchor the Pittsburgh offensive line for years to come.
18. Detroit Lions - Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt
The Lions were successful in drafting Aidan Hutchinson in 2022. Adding a player with Kancey’s projection could boost the production of Hutchinson and allow Detroit to pressure opponents from multiple spots along the defensive line. If the Lions take a chance on Jalen Carter with their first pick, Detroit could look to target the secondary with this pick.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Tampa Bay is a team in search of an identity following the retirement of Tom Brady. A key reason for the demise of Tampa Bay in 2022 was the lack of protection offered by the offensive line. Wright projects to play on the right side which would likely push Tristan Wirfs over to the left side. If Tampa is to get any success out of Baker Mayfield, they will need to protect him and Wright would be a welcomed addition to a unit that struggled last year.
20. Seattle Seahawks - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Scouts at the Ohio State pro day reported that Smith-Njigba put on a route-running clinic that all but cemented him coming off the board as the first WR selected in the draft. That may mean he goes off the board before the Seahawks have a chance to select him here. If he is still on the board it would make sense as Tyler Lockett is set to turn 31 this season and Seattle has little depth after he and D.K. Metcalf. Smith-Njigba didn’t get to show much in 2022. However, he was considered the top WR on an Ohio State team that featured 2022 rookies Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave.
21. Los Angeles Chargers - Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
The Chargers were thought to be cutting ties with Keenan Allen in the offseason but decided to bring him back. Justin Herbert feels like he is just a step away from putting it all together and reaching the elite tier of QBs. Adding another weapon or more protection up front would make sense in helping Herbert to the next level. Flowers may offer too much talent to pass up and would offer a different type of WR than what is currently on the Los Angeles roster.
22. Baltimore Ravens - Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
Every year it seems as though a talented player falls past their projection and ends up as a value pick for the Ravens. Enter Nolan Smith in 2023. Smith is said to be giving a good representation of himself in pre-draft meetings with teams. Smith was a somewhat forgotten piece of Georgia's championship defense due to injuries he suffered that held him out. Smith performed well at the combine and shows the athleticism and explosiveness that would fit the pass rush that Baltimore is looking for.
23. Minnesota Vikings - Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Adam Thielen has been jettisoned to Carolina, and Minnesota is looking for a running mate for Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson. Addison is a talented WR who played well across two conferences at Pitt and USC. While he is a bit undersized I believe he is more than just a slot receiver and could thrive in a Minnesota offense that sees defenses key in on Jefferson. Minnesota is another team that has been rumored to have QB interest and could make a move up if a QB were to drop.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars - Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Deonte Banks is a tall corner with elite athleticism who played almost exclusively on the outside at Maryland. He does a good job at sticking to WRs and shows the ability to flip his hips and run. He aced the combine and has been one of the biggest risers throughout the draft process. Jacksonville could also look at adding to the offensive line and helping Trevor Lawrence make the next jump in his development.
25. New York Giants - Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The Giants need help at the WR position if Daniel Jones is going to get to the next level. Thus far all of the WRs on the Giants' roster lack true alpha potential. Johnston performed well at his pro day and would fit well on a Giants offense that desperately needs to add a playmaker on the perimeter of their passing attack.
26. Dallas Cowboys - Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
The Cowboys have had a solid off-season. The glaring loss thus far has been TE Dalton Schultz. Michael Mayer is the most well-rounded TE in this class and would be one of the finishing pieces to the Dallas offense. Offensive line and defensive line could be other areas the Cowboys explore. With the release of Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys fans are hungry for Bijan Robinson but he will probably be out of reach.
27. Buffalo Bills - Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan
The Bills seem to be prioritizing adding another weapon in the WR corps. Whispers have the Bills linked to having an interest in acquiring DeAndre Hopkins via trade from the Cardinals. Should that happen, the Bills would be able to address a few holes on defense. Here I have them selecting the powerful DT from Michigan. Smith’s ability to bully offensive linemen and penetrate the interior while also playing the run would make him an every-down player on a talented Bills defense.
28. Cincinnati Bengals - Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
The Bengals did extensive work on TEs in the 2022 draft. Ultimately Hayden Hurst was a pleasant addition to the Bengals' offense last year. Losing Hurst to Carolina has once again opened up a hole at the position. Dalton Kincaid is essentially an oversized WR and may be the best pass catcher among TEs. Kincaid has been recovering from injury and thus far has yet to test during the draft process. The Bengals could also look to address the secondary and wait to draft a TE in later rounds due to the depth in the class and the recent signing of Irv Smith Jr.
29. New Orleans Saints - Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL, Northwestern
Cam Jordan is 34 years old and nearing the end of his career. Payton Turner has yet to make a difference after being overdrafted in the first round in 2020. Marcus Davenport signed with Minnesota in free agency leaving another vacancy along the defensive line. It’s hard to envision the Saints picking anything other than defensive line with this pick. Adetomiwa Adebawore is a name that has been gaining momentum throughout the pre-draft process. Adebawore aced the combine and has rare athleticism for a defensive lineman of his size.
30. Philadelphia Eagles - Will McDonald IV, Edge, Iowa State
Brandon Graham is back for another year, and the Eagles don’t have much of a long-term plan behind the likes of Hassan Reddick and Josh Sweat. McDonald is an explosive athlete with the ability to bend around the corner. He offers a scheme fit with what the Eagles do on defense and would immediately fit in as a rotational piece in the Eagles' pass rush.
31. Kansas City Chiefs - Felix Anudike-Uzomah, DE, Kansas State
The Chiefs should prioritize a replacement along the edge for Frank Clark. Anudike-Uzomah is right in their backyard. He displayed a solid ability to play the run along with a high motor at rushing the passer. Many mocks will have Kansas City selecting an OT here but I have a feeling the Chiefs are higher on Lucas Niang than many think and plan to start him this season opposite Jawan Taylor.
