Yahoo! Week 4 $1 Million Baller and Cash Game Strategy
Whether you are playing in the biggest tournament of the week on Yahoo! or prefer to play in smaller GPPs, there are some general positional strategies that you can implement in any size tournament. These concepts include stacking, finding pivots off of popular players, and looking for leverage in other spots. While it’s important to implement these into your lineup-building approach, the foundation of any tournament lineup is a solid core, usually players that you would use in cash games.
Stacks to Target
QB Kyler Murray, Cardinals ($39)
WR DeAndre Hopkins ($32)
WR Cooper Kupp ($36)
Using 4for4’s Stack Value Report, no QB/WR/Opp. WR combination has a higher ceiling on Yahoo this week than the one listed above. In a game with the second-highest over/under on the slate (54), DFS players will be scrambling to pair Matthew Stafford with Cooper Kupp after their hot start but targeting the Arizona side will be somewhat unique, especially with Kyler Murray’s salary $5 above Stafford’s.
While the Rams carry an implied total near 30, the spread is only 4.5, which means the Cardinals have a healthy implied point total near 25. The attention has been on LA’s new-look offense but it’s Murray that leads the league in scoring, with 29.7 Yahoo points per game. Sentiment is also down on DeAndre Hopkins who is averaging just six targets per game but he’s a premium play against a Rams defense that ranks 25th against wide receivers according to 4for4’s initial schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed.
Rostering Hopkins with Murray offsets Kupp’s probable high rostered rate and Nuk serves as a salary pivot off of other popular receivers such as Davante Adams ($33), Tyreek Hill ($30) and Stefon Diggs ($30).
QB Jacoby Brissett, Dolphins ($20)
WR Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins ($18)
WR Michael Pittman Jr. ($17)
Not many DFS players will be looking to stack a game with an over/under below 43 such as this week’s contest between the Dolphins and Colts. The point of this trio isn’t to maximize points with the primary quarterback stack but to build a unique lineup with exposure to the most popular, high-salary players in the highest-scoring games at other positions, maximizing the overall ceiling of the lineup.
By spending less than 28% of salary on a three-player combination that will likely be in fewer than 1% of rosters, tournament players can build around players such as Derrick Henry and the aforementioned chalk receivers and still be different enough to separate themselves from other Baller entires. We saw a similar strategy from Week 2’s Baller winner who won with a 1% rostered Teddy Bridgewater and 3% Courtland Sutton despite Bridgewater finishing as the QB11 on the week—the huge games from studs elsewhere in the lineup more than made up for Bridgewater’s non-ceiling game.
This is what we’re looking for from Jacoby Brisset who just dropped a respectable 20.3 Yahoo points on a Raiders defense that played well against Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the first two weeks. Indianapolis has allowed the 11th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks through three weeks. With Brissett starting in Week 3, Jaylen Waddle was targeted on 28% of passes and he could be the top option in Week 4.
Michael Pitmman Jr. rounds out 4for4’s top 3-man value. The Pittman breakout is in full effect—his 24 targets over the last two weeks rank third in the league and he is one of 20 players averaging over 100 air yards over all three games this season.
RB Zack Moss, Bills ($20)
WR Brandin Cooks, Texans ($19)
Through three weeks, every Baller winner has included a mini-correlation that included a running back in addition to their primary quarterback stack. This stack leverages the popularity of a Bills passing attack in a game where Buffalo projects for a weekly high of 32 points. They are also favored by over two touchdowns, which means game script should set up to run the ball late in the game—if touchdown variance falls to the running backs early, fading Josh Allen and his pass-catchers could be a tournament-winning pivot.
After getting 40% of the backfield work in his first contest in Week 2, Zack Moss accounted for nearly 60% of the Bills running back touches and snaps in Week 3, tacking on three targets. Despite missing a game, Moss ranks third in the league with seven carries inside the 10-yard line.
Brandin Cooks has been one of the most heavily utilized wide receivers in the league this season. He is one of just five players with at least 30% of his team’s targets and an air yards share above 40%. Whether playing to keep pace or out of desperation, Houston will almost certainly be forced to throw a ton in this game against a Buffalo team that pushes the tempo, with the second-highest neutral pace.
Contrarian Plays to Target
RB Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($28)
After splitting touches 11-11 with Nyheim Hines in Week 3 and playing fewer than 50% of the snaps in consecutive weeks, fantasy managers don’t need many excuses to fade Jonathan Taylor in Week 4 as a road underdog in what is expected to be a low-scoring game.
With a salary sandwiched between a handful of high-volume running backs in favorable scoring environments, Taylor is sure to be under-utilized in Baller lineups. This is a get-right spot for Taylor against a Dolphins defense that has allowed the second-most schedule-adjusted points to running backs, including 100-yard games to Damien Harris and Peyton Barber.
Only Derrick Henry has more carries than Taylor inside the 10-yard line this season and that usage will translate into fantasy points—DFS players want to strike before the 20021 breakout happens, not after.
WR Tim Patrick, Broncos ($18)
Denver is suddenly short on pass-catchers, losing Jerry Jeudy in Week 1 before K.J. Hamler tore his ACL in Week 3. That spells opportunity for Tim Patrick who saw 45% of air yards in Week 3—the eighth-highest mark in the league—on five targets with a 17-yard average target depth.
Those deep targets are suddenly a favorite for Teddy Bridgewater who is averaging the seventh most intended air yards per pass and ranks third in adjusted yards per pass attempt. With two good defenses in this game, not many DFS players will be targeting these offenses but Bridgewater and Lamar Jackson, who leads the league in intended air yards, could flip the expected low-scoring script.
If Baller entries do target receivers in this game, it will likely be with the similar-salaried Courtland Sutton ($19) or Marquise Brown ($19). Emmanuel Sanders ($19) and Cole Beasley ($17) are in the same salary range from the most popular offense of the week, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Patrick come in with a 1% rostered rate.
Cash Game Strategy
The biggest decision of the week will be whether or not to pay all the way up for Derrick Henry as a big favorite against an abysmal Jets’ run defense. There is enough value on the slate to build a studs and duds lineup that includes Henry and Josh Allen, the top quarterback value of the week.
- QB: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield
- RB: Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Antonio Gibson, D'Andre Swift, Najee Harris, Sony Michel, Alexander Mattison
- WR: Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, D.J. Moore, Terry McLaurin, Chase Claypool, Deebo Samuel, Cole Beasley, Michael Pittman Jr., Brandin Cooks, Emmanuel Sanders, Odell Beckham
- TE: Tyler Higbee, Dalton Schultz, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Tyler Conklin
- DEF: Titans, Bills, Packers