2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds, Bets, and Predictions
What is the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award?
Offensive Rookie of the Year is voted on by a panel of 50 writers and goes to the best offensive rookie of that respective NFL season.
Who Usually Wins Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Unlike the MVP Award, which nearly always goes to a quarterback, Offensive Rookie of the Year has only been won by a quarterback six times in the past 12 years. Running backs won four times, while Odell Beckham Jr. and Ja'Marr Chase were the wideouts to win the other two years. It’s fair to say quarterbacks still have the best chances of winning, and the market reflects that this season with Kenny Pickett as the favorite.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds Table
2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Best Bets
Kenny Pickett (+600 at Ceasars)
Kenny Pickett is the only quarterback in this class who will be in a quarterback competition heading into training camp. He and former top-three draft pick, Mitch Trubisky, will duke it out for the starting job. If he starts the whole season, Pickett certainly warrants being the favorite. If you want to bet on Pickett, wait on him being announced as the starter since the market already has that mostly priced in.
Drake London (+800 at DraftKings)
Drake London was the first wideout selected in the NFL Draft, but was selected by the Atlanta Falcons, who will be trotting out Marcus Mariota at quarterback. London certainly projects for a reasonable amount of target volume but it’s tough to say how many of those targets will be catchable. If you want to bet on volume, London is your guy.
Treylon Burks (+800 at Ceasars and PointsBet)
Out goes A.J. Brown, in comes Treylon Burks. The Titans traded away their former alpha and replaced him with a player who many compare to Brown. The Titans' receiving group has received a significant makeover without both Brown and Julio Jones. Burks and Robert Woods are now in the picture and likely to be the team’s top two wideouts. With the Titans wanting to continue their run-heavy approach and Burks being regarded as a relatively raw rookie, I’ll likely be taking my money elsewhere with this award.
Breece Hall (+900 on DraftKings)
Breece Hall was the first running back off the board in the NFL Draft but had to wait until early in the second round to hear his name called by the Jets. They add Hall to a running back room that already has a formidable pass-catcher in Michael Carter. The coaching staff has mentioned the two will very likely share the workload. Given their Shanahanian roots, it makes sense they continue to utilize a running back by committee. Hall is in play but given he likely won’t get too many touches, I’m not excited about betting him at +900.
Garrett Wilson (+1000 at FanDuel)
Garrett Wilson was selected 10th overall by the New York Jets and is in an intriguing situation this season. He will compete for targets with Elijah Moore and Corey Davis but his targets are from unproven second-year quarterback Zach Wilson. Wilson’s range of outcomes are extremely wide. Even if he earns more targets than Moore, how accurate will they be? For him to truly hit his upside scenario, he needs to be the No. 1 wideout on the team and Wilson has to prove to be competent. I need more than +1000 to bet on both of those scenarios happening.
Christian Watson (+1100 at PointsBet)
PointsBet’s number is a bit off compared to other shops, which have him around +800. On paper, it makes sense that since the Packers lost Davante Adams, the receiver they drafted should slide in and soak up some of those targets. Unfortunately, I highly doubt Christian Watson is prepared to take on such a massive workload after failing to record more than 801 yards in a single season at North Dakota State. He only posted four 100-yard games in his career. While his athleticism is impressive, running a 4.36 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4, 208 pounds begs the question, why didn't he produce more? I have serious questions about how well he does in the NFL, let alone as a rookie with a quarterback known for turning a cold shoulder on receivers he doesn't trust.
Chris Olave (+1200 at Caesars)
Chris Olave had a legitimate opportunity to be the Saints' top wideout if Michael Thomas’ injury continued to linger but they signed Jarvis Landry. Olave could still outperform him but it’s enough of a roadblock to give pause that Olave will be a target vacuum. He is also paired with Jameis Winston, who at one time led the NFL in passing yards, but last season the Saints wanted nothing to do with that Winston and tried to keep him as a game manager. This is a very volatile situation with a lot more downside than upside.
Kenneth Walker III (+1200 at DraftKings)
Ken Walker was the second running back off the board and landed in a spot he should see the rock plenty. Pete Carroll and the Seahawks traded away stud quarterback Russell Wilson and bolstered the offensive line, signaling another shift towards establishing the run as much as possible. Walker will split carries with Rashaad Penny and I think there’s a good chance Penny actually starts as the 1A after dominating down the stretch last season. If Penny were to get injured, Walker would likely see 20+ touches a game and be squarely in contention for this award. I don’t want to bank on an injury, though, so it’s a pass for me at +1200
Jameson Williams (+1200 at DraftKings)
If reports continue to be positive about Jameson Williams' ACL rehab I will likely bet a bit on him to win this award. Prior to tearing his ACL, he was the clear No. 1 wideout in the class and was absolutely electric in college. He is playing in an up-and-coming Detroit offense that has other solid pieces, which should all help to elevate each other. Odell Beckham Jr. won offensive rookie of the year, despite missing the first couple of games as a rookie. This is worth a play as long as Williams is only out 3-4 games instead of 6-8.
Skyy Moore (+1500 at Caesars)
Skyy Moore couldn’t have landed in a better spot with the Kansas City Chiefs. They just traded away Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce continues to age. The Chiefs signed JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Both players have serious question marks, though, and Moore could easily outperform either of them. Odds of 15/1 seem to be about the right price but I would much rather take a stab on him at 15/1 than Christian Watson at 11/1.
Desmond Ridder (+1600 Caesars)
Desmond Ridder is a rookie quarterback who actually has a chance to see serious playing time this season. Marcus Mariota is far from an established starter at this point and very well could be benched during the season. If that happens, Ridder would have his crack at the job and potentially make a run at Offensive Rookie of the Year. The issue is, I’m not sure he would be set up for success even if he does play. He has two solid pass-catchers in Kyle Pitts and Drake London but he’ll likely have to deal with poor offensive line play and they’ll have no running game to alleviate any pressure. He isn’t a bad bet, he just needs a lot to go his way in order for a bet to pay off.
James Cook (+1600 at FanDuel)
James Cook has seen a meteoric rise in expectations since the pre-draft process and was drafted in the second round by the Buffalo Bills to be their pass-catching back. He would have to lead all running backs in receptions and score a handful of long touchdowns to likely be in consideration for this award.
David Bell (+4000 Caesars)
David Bell is 30/1 at DraftKings and could very well be the Day 1 starter in three-wide receiver sets in Cleveland with Donovan Peoples-Jones and Amari Cooper. If Deshaun Watson were somehow able to avoid suspension entirely or only miss a few games, Bell is an intriguing longshot at 40/1.