AFC West Odds & Bets: Best 2023 NFL Futures
A case can be made that tying up funds in NFL futures for 4+ months is a pretty -EV way to handle your money. But let's be honest; you've made more egregious -EV decisions than getting down on the Chargers to make the playoffs in August.
This is the last week of our Divisional Preview Series on Move The Line, and a ton of work goes into that on my end. I deep dive into all aspects of each roster, along with scheduling anomalies and anything else that might matter in preparation for each episode. I've gone division by division here on the site, in lock-step with each week's show, giving you my elevator pitch for each team and the best way to bet on them in the futures market.
This was a fruitful venture for those who tailed in 2022. In this space, I went 20-11-1 overall (+9.55 units).
This season, the AFC West teams face the AFC East and NFC North while rotating through the AFC North, AFC South, and NFC East for their "unique 3" opponents.
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AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs just won't be the same without Tyreek Hill. Patrick Mahomes is great and all, but look at this receiving core. Travis Kelce is a year older and looks to be slowing down. The defense is relying on too many young players.
You will have some misses when you're in this business, and shoot as many shots as we do in a given year. It's the law of large numbers. But doubting the Chiefs in the Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid era is a mistake that I won't make again. I thought Kansas City would still be a playoff team, but fellow AFC West foes in Los Angeles and Denver had closed the gap slightly. That was a miss. The Chiefs offense didn't skip a beat without Tyreek Hill. They led the league in every meaningful offensive category, including points per game, points per drive, yards per game, EPA per play, and success rate. The fact that they could shift resources to help themselves down the line and win the Super Bowl during the same year was quite a remarkable feat. They're one of the league's youngest teams, have financial flexibility moving forward, and have the best player on the planet. That's a recipe for success.
I could preview the offense by simply typing "Patrick Mahomes" and logging off, but let's take a deeper look here. The offensive line features two new starting tackles, Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor, and the interior of their offensive line remains one of the best in the league. Mahomes posted the league's best pressure-to-sack rate in the league last season and will likely be among the best again in 2023. There are still valid questions about this pass-catching core outside of Travis Kelce, who quieted any doubters with a monster 2022 season. He'll remain the top target in this offense, but it's scary to think of where this unit can go if one of the many wide receiver options emerges. Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney each possess a ceiling skill set that could take this offense to new heights. There's also depth behind them, with rookie Rashee Rice, reclamation project Justyn Ross, downfield threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and the annually underrated Richie James. I don't know who is going to emerge from this group, but as long as Mahomes and Kelce remain healthy, Andy Reid will have this group near the top of the league once again.
The big offseason storyline, which is increasingly important as Week 1 approaches, is the status of defensive lineman Chris Jones. Jones is arguably the best pass-rushing interior lineman in the league and led all interior linemen in pass-rush win rate in 2022. He's yet to join the team and appears unlikely to do so at this point. His absence has a trickle-down effect on the rest of the unit, especially since they'll once again be leaning on young guys, with Khalen Saunders, Frank Clark, Carlos Dunlap, and Juan Thornhill all leaving in free agency. There's some pass-rushing talent outside of Jones and free-agent addition Charles Omenihu, but it's mostly just young guys who'll also need to hold down the fort while Omenihu serves a six-game suspension after an offseason arrest. There are also concerns in the secondary, with cornerback L'Jarius Sneed battling a knee injury all summer. He was outstanding for Kansas City in the backend last season. They got better-than-expected performances out of cornerback Trent McDuffie and safety Justin Reid, and they'll need it again in 2023. The linebacking core, spearheaded by alpha tackling machine Nick Bolton, added depth and versatility by poaching Drue Tranquill from the Chargers this offseason.
The Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes duo has made it to the AFC Championship game in each of their five seasons together. Reid has won at least nine games in 10 straight seasons in Kansas City, a truly awe-inspiring run approaching Belichickian levels at this point. Their schedule has very few layups, and they're repeatedly on the wrong side of the weekly rest advantage late in the season. Even so, they're favored in every game this season, and it's difficult to imagine their AFC Championship game run ending if Patrick Mahomes is healthy in January. There are a lot of threats in the AFC, but none greater than the Chiefs. I don't love these prices, but if I had to make a play here, I'd take the AFC price.
Best Bet: AFC Champions (+350, Caesars)
Caesars Sportsbook Bonus
Los Angeles Chargers
We all know how the season ended. There's no way to spin those final two hours positively, so let's step back and look at the season as a whole. More than anything, 2022 was another disastrous year for the Chargers from a health standpoint. As noted by Aaron Schatz, Rashawn Slater, Corey Linsley, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams were on the field together for just 20 snaps all season. Justin Herbert played nearly the entire year with fractured ribs after sustaining a brutal hit in Week 2's matchup in Kansas City. The defensive side was nearly the same. Big free agent additions J.C. Jackson and Austin Johnson were massive disappointments and then got hurt, as did defensive end Joey Bosa. Sadly, this is a feature and not a bug for the Chargers organization, but I'm optimistic about their prospect this season, and I'm sure Chargers fans are desperate to turn the page on the 2022 season.
When I think about the 2022 Chargers, I think about the picture of the Bugatti parked next to a mobile home. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi's usage of Justin Herbert was borderline criminal. Using Herbert as a check-down-Charlie, refusing to throw the ball downfield on early downs, and failing to adjust his scheme based on the roster led to his firing this offseason. In comes former Cowboys offense coordinator Kellen Moore. As Dallas's head coach Mike McCarthy took over playcalling duties in an effort to save his job, Moore was let go and instantly scooped up by the Chargers. Moore's offenses in Dallas were among the league's best whenever Dak Prescott was on the field, and Moore showed a willingness to design his weekly scheme based on the opponent and what talent he had at his disposal. It's hard not to envision this offense taking a massive step forward if they can keep the core pieces on the field most weeks. Moore had his detractors during his time in Dallas, but I believe he'll benefit from the freedom of leading a defensive-minded head coach's offense if head coach Brandon Staley can get his decision-making groove back.
After playing just parts of seven games together in 2022, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will benefit greatly from Kellen Moore's new offense, and first-round pick Quentin Johnston adds a complementary size and speed element that this team sorely lacked last season. As is the case with any rookie, Johnston will improve as the season goes along, and he adds a layer of depth behind Allen and Williams if they miss any time. I still anticipate Austin Ekeler will be heavily involved, but a more aggressive approach and fewer running back screens will greatly benefit this offense. All in all, we should see the Chargers play at a faster pace, with more pre-snap motion, and look to highlight Justin Herbert in a way that we haven't seen since he entered the league.
Staley's defense will also benefit from fewer three-and-outs from the offense. We also never really got to see the pass-rush duo of Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack do their thing. Bosa went down with an injury early in Week 3's airball against the Jaguars and didn't come back until late in the season, but was clearly not 100%. Linebacker Eric Kendricks comes over from Minnesota to play MIKE, allowing Kenneth Murray to play in coverage and rush the passer more frequently. Kendricks's addition should bolster the consistency of the run defense now that Drue Tranquill is in Kansas City, and Murray was a trainwreck in that role. They also need cornerback J.C. Jackson to stay healthy and be a close approximation to who they thought they were acquiring when giving him a huge offseason contract. After deciding to let slot corner Bryce Callahan walk, along with promising young safety Nasir Adderly's sudden retirement, the Chargers are inexperienced in a few key spots. Alohi Gilman will likely get the starting nod at safety next to Derwin James, while Ja'sir Taylor will try to forget what happened on that fateful night in Jacksonville after he was forced to take over for the injured Michael Davis.
The Chargers drew a tough slate, with a "unique three" (@ TEN, vs. DAL, vs. BAL) that's more difficult than some first-place teams around the league. In the Herbert era, that's shown an ability to beat anyone anywhere, including multiple wins in Kansas City. The schedule makers didn't do the Chargers any favors this season, as this year's Week 7 trip to Kansas City will be on short rest after hosting the Cowboys on Monday night in Week 6. The Chiefs also have a Week 6 primetime game, but it's on Thursday night, which gives them an even greater rest advantage than normal. The range of outcomes on the Chargers is vast, so if you're optimistic about Herbert's projected step forward and the possibility of less catastrophic injury variance, leaning into the top range of outcomes on the Chargers is wise. I like the Over 9.5 wins at -128 on FanDuel or betting on them at basically even odds to make the playoffs, but I prefer this little nugget from BetMGM.
Best Bet: AFC West Second Place (+125, BetMGM)
BetMGM Bonus
Denver Broncos
When factoring in expectations and preseason hype, the 2022 Denver Broncos were one of the biggest disappointments I can remember over the past 20 years in the league. First-time head coach Nathaniel Hackett was hired with the hopes of luring Aaron Rodgers to Denver, but after that fell through, the new ownership group still wanted to make a splash, so they mortgaged the next handful of drafts to acquire Russell Wilson from Seattle. At the time, the popular one-liner about the Broncos was that they were 'just a quarterback away' from being one of the league's best teams. After a 5-12 season, one that Hackett couldn't see the end of, the Broncos might still be 'just a quarterback away.'
Former Saints head coach Sean Payton is now in charge of getting Wilson and company back on track. The Broncos dealt with a ton of injuries last season, but the success of the 2023 squad hinges on Russell Wilson's ability to execute Sean Payton's offense. I have concerns. At his best, Wilson was one of the league's best improvisers, able to make something out of nothing when the pocket breaks down. He's been one of the league's best deep ball passers since entering the league, and he clearly struggled in Hackett's quick-hitting west-coast-derived offense last season. Based on what we've seen from his time in New Orleans, Sean Payton's offense will ask Wilson to do more of the same. At times, it looked like Sam Darnold back in the day in the infamous "I'm seeing ghosts" game against New England. He took sacks at an all-time rate despite Denver ranking 9th in ESPN's pass-block win rate metric. He lacked accuracy and decisiveness, regardless of whether he was under pressure or operating from a clean pocket, which is a bad sign and an early indicator of a declining player.
I'm holding out hope that Sean Payton adjusts his offense to better fit what Wilson did well in Seattle, and he has the weaponry to perform well if the signs of decline were noise instead of signal. If healthy, the trio of Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and rookie Marvin Mims offers a ton of upside, along with second-year tight end Greg Dulcich. The Broncos signed former Bengals running back Samaje Perine in free agency as a stop-gap to carry the water while Javonte Williams recovers from his knee injury. Williams is ahead of schedule, so the workload distribution is a bit cloudy from a fantasy perspective, but it's a good situation for the Broncos overall. Despite numerous key injuries, the offensive line ranked among the top ten in both pass-block and run-block win rates. They should continue to be a strong run-blocking offensive line with the additions of Ben Powers and Mike McGlinchey, and left tackle Garett Bolles returns from a broken leg after missing most of 2022.
The big offseason shift on the defensive side of the ball starts at coordinator, with Ejiro Evero now in Carolina. Despite a weekly mounting pile of injuries, Evero's defense kept Denver competitive in numerous spots where they would have otherwise been dead on arrival. Evero is considered one of the league's most promising assistants and a future head coach. Ironically, a former Broncos head coach, Vance Joseph, is back to lead the defense in 2023. He'll work with one of the league's top secondaries, led by cornerback Patrick Surtain and free safety Justin Simmons. There's a lot of young, promising depth here as well. The big challenge for Joseph will be finding a consistent pass rush.
The general consensus is that the Broncos can't be that bad again this year, and while that's likely correct and oversimplifying things at the same time, that sentiment is already baked into their prices. A 5-12 team with a win total of 8.5 accounts for an improved Russell Wilson and a major impact from Sean Payton. If they're ready to go, they have some winnable games early, with a brutal mid-season slate that will test their legitimacy. This is a wait-and-see team for me, but I lean on the pessimistic side of their results as we head into the season.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 Wins (-114, FanDuel)
Fanduel Sportsbook Bonus
Las Vegas Raiders
No one really believed it, but after a surprising playoff appearance and a 10-7 record in 2021, the Raiders viewed themselves as contenders entering 2022. You don't make splashy acquisitions on both sides of the ball (Davante Adams and Chandler Jones) if you don't think you're a playoff team. They also brought in Josh McDaniels, who had flirted with numerous head coaching offers over the past decade but decided this was the time and place to dive back in.
McDaniels is looking to turn the page on the 2022 season, bringing in 'his guys' to get things done. Derek Carr became the scapegoat for the disappointing year, with a strange, financially motivated end-of-the-season benching. Carr wasn't the main issue; in fact, he and Davante Adams gelled quite nicely in their reunion, but Carr never looked comfortable in McDaniels' system, and he struggled mightily when it mattered the most. Carr was a bottom-tier passer in the red zone and in the second half of games, which is partly to blame for the Raiders blowing a historic amount of double-digit leads last season. Per Football Outsiders, they went 1-4 in the five games in which they held a double-digit lead. The rest of the league had a 90.3% win rate in that situation, going 84-9. Enter stage left, Jimmy Garoppolo, who's familiar with what McDaniels wants to do offensively after their time together in New England. Garoppolo's ability to operate on time and work in the short to intermediate part of the field is what makes him appealing to McDaniels, and it's why he thrived, when healthy, in Kyle Shanahan's offense in San Francisco. The when healthy note is vital because that's rarely been the case for Garoppolo, and this offseason was no different after undergoing off-season foot surgery. Garoppolo is limited, but McDaniels knows what he's good at.
Things would have been bleak without Josh Jacobs in the mix, but that appears to be cleared up in the short term with Jacobs signing a one-year deal and returning to camp. He was awesome in a three-down workhorse role in 2022, and he will likely get the chance to do it again in 2023. Garoppolo's accuracy and timing were rewarded in San Francisco due to the elite ability of all of their pass-catchers to create yards after the catch. Adams aside, that is not a strength of this Raiders roster. Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Renfrow are excellent at what they do, but it's a limited skill set that doesn't offer much big-play upside. Darren Waller joined the growing list of many former Josh McDaniels players who couldn't wait to get out of town, and he'll be missed in this offense. Austin Hooper and rookie Michael Mayer will step into that role, but again, both are more catch-and-get-tackled guys than YAC creators. The interior of the offensive line is an issue, but the unit improved as the season went along, and left tackle Kolton Miller is one of the more underappreciated linemen in the league.
The good news for the Raiders defensively is that they decided to make sweeping changes to one of the league's worst units in 2022. The pass rush is the strength of the unit, led by Maxx Crosby. The hope is that last season's big signee, Chandler Jones, and this year's first-round pick, Tyree Wilson, can help Crosby, who was a bit of a one-man-band last season. The secondary, highlighted by the addition of Marcus Peters, is almost all new starters outside Nate Hobbs. It's not an inspiring group, but if they're supported by an elite pass rush up front, they could be significantly better than last year's group, albeit still league-average at best.
I wouldn't say that the range of outcomes is wide for the Raiders simply because I don't see much of a ceiling here, and the schedule is brutal. I do see a path to everything going right, which means every key contributor remained healthy, but even in that scenario, I don't see this team pushing for 8-9 wins or a playoff spot. The other side of the coin is a complete bottoming out. I'm not willing to lay the current prices on the Raiders, as the best of the number is long gone, but taking the under on their win total is my lean.
Bets Bet: Under 6.5 Wins (-130, Caesars)
