Jake's Week 18 NFL Player Prop Bets

Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

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Week 17: 7-4, +$282



Overall: 70-55, +$901

6.16% ROI



Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop

Week 17 Recap

Week 17 marked the fifth consecutive positive week, and we're up 12.5 units over the same timeframe. I'll highlight a couple of losses first, and I'll start with Herbert under 31.5 pass attempts. Herbert finished with 32, but the bet was a long shot to win after the absurd start from the Texans' offense. After 5ish minutes, the Texans' offense had run seven plays for 150+ yards and scored two long TDs, putting the Chargers in trail mode instantly, forcing Herbert to drop back plenty. Despite the runout on Herbert and the bet ultimately losing, I would play this bet in this spot again for sure. That early surge from the Texans' offense was a super unfortunate and unlikely start to the game. The second loss I'll recap is Ewers over 29.5 pass attempts, which never really had a chance to win. The Dolphins game was a weird one, as I thought the Bucs offense could definitely get something going against the weak Miami defense and force Ewers and the Dolphins offense to throw a lot. Unfortunately for us, the Bucs offense struggled and let Miami be in the driver's seat wire to wire. Now I'll highlight some wins.

The easiest win was Mayer over 28.5 receiving yards. I was shocked to see his line open this low, given that the only real game he played without Bowers, he was targeted a ton and caught five balls for fifty yards. We saw a similar workload/role for Mayer, and this bet was never in doubt. The last win I'll highlight is Stafford over 21.5 completions. I played this Stafford bet thinking the Rams would just try and pile it on through the air versus an inferior team. Boy, was I wrong. The Rams were trailing the entire game, and for a second, it seemed like the Rams might pull Stafford and just move on to next week. Thankfully, they didn't, and Stafford got there in the end in sweaty fashion, which, given the game script we saw, it is shocking that this bet was even a sweat. Here's to a Happy New Year and to the green results continuing.

Week 18 Bets

Keaton Mitchell OVER 18.5 Rush Yards (-114)

Keaton has run 8, 9, and 9 times in his last three games, and given how successful the Ravens were on the ground last week against a playoff team (Green Bay), I expect them to continue their insanely heavy rushing attack. Pittsburgh has been beaten badly by opposing backs at times, but this is more of a bet on volume than efficiency. Any back seeing 6+ carries consistently shouldn't be lined at 18.5, especially a back as explosive as Keaton, who is averaging 5.9 yards per carry on the year.

Baker Mayfield UNDER 33.5 Pass Attempts (-132)

We played Baker under 32.5 pass attempts in the same matchup against Carolina just two weeks ago (he finished with 26). Very similar thought process here; Baker has stayed under 32.5 pass attempts in five of the Bucs' seven wins this season, and in a win-or-go-home matchup, the Bucs are 3-point home favorites versus the Panthers. Carolina's offense has killed games, ranking 29th in PROE and 29th in neutral pass rate. Combine this with the fact that the Bucs are 30th in neutral pass rate over expectation, and we're most likely getting an extremely low-play-volume game. As I mentioned previously, the last QB to attempt 33+ passes against Carolina was in Week 9, and it was Jordan Love, who the Panthers somehow beat.

Trevor Lawrence OVER 241.5 Pass Yards (-114)

The Titans' defense is the NFL's biggest pass funnel, allowing the highest PROE. In their Week 12 meeting, the Titans offense managed only 3 points, but despite putting up no fight whatsoever, Tlaw still posted a passing line of 16/27 for 229 yards. One would have to think the Titans can put up at least a little bit more of a fight in a divisional rematch. Tlaw has also been on an absolute tear lately with an average passing line in December of 20.7/33.7 for 279 yards. I expect Tlaw to shred this Titans defense, which just got beat to a pulp by Tyler Shough last week for 300+ yards. The Jaguars also need to win to win the division, so I expect them to go all out here.

Trey Lance UNDER 174.5 Pass Yards (-112)

Denver is allowing only 192 passing yards per game and has held inferior QBs to awfully low yardage totals (Ward 112 yards, Fields 45 yards, Mills 137 yards, Geno 143 yards, Oladokun 66 yards). The Broncos are one of the best defenses in football, and I expect them to make this game a living hell for Lance. Lance is very unproven as a passer in the NFL, but he is a very good runner, and it would not shock me if Greg Roman tried to muck this game up and come in with an extremely, extremely run-heavy game plan. I expect even when Lance does drop back, we should see a lot of off-script runs, and I expect the Chargers to call more designed runs for him as well.

CJ Stroud UNDER 33.5 Pass Attempts (-120)

In games where the Texans won by 2+ scores this season, Stroud has attempted fewer than 34 passes in 4/5 of those games. The Texans are 10.5-point favorites over the Colts, who will be starting rookie QB Riley Leonard, who, in his limited time on the field this year, has looked like a disaster. I don't expect the Texans to allow the Colts to score many points, and Stroud shouldn't be forced into many clear passing situations.

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