Breakout Receiver Model: Week 18
The Breakout Receiver Model returns for the final week of the regular season, and we’re going out with a bang, as the model posted one of its best weeks of the entire season in Week 17. 45% of all listed players met or exceeded expectations, and listed player scores were, on average, within 10% of expectations. The model clearly isn’t hampered by late-season playing time and personnel changes, an impressive feat within itself. With this being the last breakout receiver article of the season, let’s touch on some hits and misses from last week, hand out a few season’s end superlatives, and then dig into the week ahead.
About the Breakout Receiver Model
The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, have recalibrated and reconfigured the receiver "buy-low" model from years past in order to better identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends who might be on the verge of a breakout performance. For the uninitiated, the breakout receiver model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily weights the last three weeks of data.
Last Week's Results
Hits
| Player | Team | Position | XFP - Last 3 | Week 17 | XFP-Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | TB | TE | 13.6 | 15 | 1.4 |
| Jakobi Meyers | NE | WR | 12.9 | 17.3 | 4.4 |
| DK Metcalf | SEA | WR | 11.7 | 27.9 | 16.2 |
| Darnell Mooney | CHI | WR | 11.2 | 16.4 | 5.2 |
| Michael Gallup | DAL | WR | 11.1 | 11.1 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | JAX | WR | 11 | 11.7 | 0.7 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | 10.8 | 12.4 | 1.6 |
| Van Jefferson | LA | WR | 9.2 | 8.3 | -0.9 |
| Mike Williams | LAC | WR | 8.4 | 13.8 | 5.4 |
| Mike Gesicki | MIA | TE | 8 | 7.1 | -0.9 |
| David Njoku | CLE | TE | 6.2 | 10.8 | 4.6 |
Misses
| Player | Team | Position | XFP - Last 3 | Week 17 | XFP-Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 17 | 8.8 | -8.2 |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | 15 | 10.6 | -4.4 |
| Christian Kirk | ARI | WR | 14 | 10.9 | -3.1 |
| Kenny Golladay | NYG | WR | 13.9 | 0 | -13.9 |
| Robby Anderson | CAR | WR | 13.9 | 2 | -11.9 |
| D.J. Moore | CAR | WR | 13.3 | 4.4 | -8.9 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | CLE | WR | 13 | 9.1 | -3.9 |
| Hunter Henry | NE | TE | 12.3 | 5.2 | -7.1 |
| Marquise Brown | BAL | WR | 11.4 | 2.3 | -9.1 |
| A.J. Green | ARI | WR | 10.9 | 8.9 | -2 |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | 10.8 | 9.6 | -1.2 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 8.6 | 7.5 | -1.1 |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | 8.3 | 4 | -4.3 |
Breakout Receiver Model Recommendations
Breakout Receiver Top Candidates
Insights and Takeaways
While we usually pull a few nuggets about this week's chart within this section, we'll hand out a few end-of-season awards, as determined by the model.
Team with the Most Breakout Candidates: Baltimore Ravens (24)
Team(s) with the Least Breakout Candidates: San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans (4)
Worst Performing Breakout Candidates, Team: Carolina Panthers (-104 Fantasy Points vs. Expected)
Highest Performing Breakout Candidates, Team: Kansas City Chiefs (12.7 Fantasy Points vs. Expected)
Best "Hit" Rate (Breakout Players Meeting/Exceeding Expectations): Los Angeles Chargers (84%)
Worst "Hit" Rate (Breakout Players Meeting/Exceeding Expectations): Carolina Panthers (18%)
Worst Performing Breakout Candidate, Player: Marquise Brown (-60 Fantasy Points vs. Expected, 11 games)
Highest Performing Breakout Candidate, Player: DeVante Parker (24 Fantasy Points vs. Expected, 3 Games)
Wide Receiver(s) with the Most Breakout Model Appearances: Marvin Jones, Marquise Brown (11)
Tight End with the Most Breakout Model Appearances: Cole Kmet (11)
Not-so-honorable mentions (Players with 9+ under-performing Weeks): Kyle Pitts, Mike Gesicki, Robby Anderson
Breakout Receiver Model: Week 18
We split the breakout candidates into two categories. The first is the primary model results, also visualized in the graph above, which highlight players who are under-performing their expected fantasy point value by more than five percent. Next, we'll offer some dart-throw plays for DFS players and for season-long teams struggling with injuries who need a last-minute replacement. Use this in conjunction with John Paulsen's sneaky starts column each week. Use this in conjunction with John Paulsen's sneaky starts column each week.
Key:
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`XFP` is expected fantasy points, the model's projected average half-PPR fantasy points per game.
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`Diff` is the difference between a player's actual half-PPR fantasy points per game and their expected fantasy points per game
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`Efficiency Score` uses a proprietary blend of individual efficiency metrics to create one singular efficiency value. Higher numbers indicate more efficient past performance.
| Player | Team | Position | XFP - Last 3 | Diff. | Efficiency Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | 15.3 | -2.9 | 136.7 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | CLE | WR | 12.9 | -7.2 | |
| D.J. Moore | CAR | WR | 12.8 | -6 | 73.2 |
| Marvin Jones | JAX | WR | 11.5 | -5 | 65.2 |
| Amari Cooper | DAL | WR | 11 | -1.3 | |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | GB | WR | 10.8 | -1.3 | |
| Marquise Brown | BAL | WR | 10.7 | -3.9 | 86.8 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 10.7 | -1 | 80.7 |
| Hunter Henry | NE | TE | 10.7 | -1 | 113 |
| N'Keal Harry | NE | WR | 10.5 | -6.2 | 84.9 |
| Robby Anderson | CAR | WR | 10.3 | -5.4 | 67.4 |
| DeVante Parker | MIA | WR | 10.2 | -3 | |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 10.1 | -5.1 | 63.7 |
| Kenny Golladay | NYG | WR | 10 | -6.5 | |
| Mike Gesicki | MIA | TE | 10 | -4.1 | 69.4 |
| A.J. Green | ARI | WR | 10 | -3 | 76.8 |
| Odell Beckham | LA | WR | 9.5 | -1.1 | 64.4 |
| Tim Patrick | DEN | WR | 9.2 | -2 | 79.2 |
| Jarvis Landry | CLE | WR | 8.8 | -1.9 | |
| Darius Slayton | NYG | WR | 8.1 | -5.9 | |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | 8 | -1 | 70.4 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 8 | -0.3 | 134.5 |
| Jared Cook | LAC | TE | 7.9 | -2.6 | 78.9 |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 7.5 | -1.2 | |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | 7 | -2.4 | |
| Austin Hooper | CLE | TE | 6.7 | -2.8 | 111.2 |
Dart Throws
While the players listed below likely belong on the waiver wire for most, these are the players who are underperforming their already-low expected fantasy points. For DFS players focused on large-field GPP tournaments, this table can serve as a starting point for finding low-salary contrarian plays.
| Player | Team | Position | XFP - Last 3 | Diff. | Efficiency Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Claypool | PIT | WR | 7.8 | -4.3 | 81.7 |
| Jerry Jeudy | DEN | WR | 7.5 | -3.8 | |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | TEN | WR | 7.2 | -3.9 | 117.3 |
| Rashard Higgins | CLE | WR | 6.8 | -2.3 | 46.1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | HOU | WR | 6.6 | -0.4 | |
| D'Wayne Eskridge | SEA | WR | 6.2 | -5.1 | |
| Keelan Cole | NYJ | WR | 6.1 | -2.9 | 58.6 |
| Damiere Byrd | CHI | WR | 6.1 | -1.7 | 112.1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | PIT | WR | 5.9 | -2.4 | 98.3 |
| C.J. Uzomah | CIN | TE | 5.9 | -1 | 130.7 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | WR | 5.6 | -1.4 | 33.1 | |
| Tavon Austin | JAX | WR | 5.6 | -1.2 | 82.5 |
| DeSean Jackson | LV | WR | 5.5 | -2.5 | 109.9 |
| Kalif Raymond | DET | WR | 5.3 | -2.4 | 69.9 |
| Tommy Tremble | CAR | TE | 5.2 | -3 | 63.8 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | ATL | WR | 5.2 | -1.1 | 101 |
Top Breakout Candidates for Week 18:
- The Vikings are 7-9 and eliminated from playoff contention, but they’ve shown every indication that they’ll play their starters throughout Week 18, which means Justin Jefferson has an excellent chance to finish the year with a bang against the division-rival Bears this Sunday. Chicago has been easier to beat on the ground than through the air, ranking 18th in aFPA to running backs but top-10 against opposing wideouts, but Jefferson is talented enough and should see the requisite opportunity to buck that trend.
- Tampa Bay’s defensive struggles have re-emerged during this season’s second half. The Buccaneers now rank worst among all current playoff teams in cumulative schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed this season, and they continue to be beaten with deep and intermediate passing, which is why D.J. Moore pops as a potential breakout candidate for approximately the one-gazillionth time this season. Moore’s floor is tremendously low here, but the matchup is good enough. Painful as this season has been, Moore’s worth a start this Sunday.
- The Cowboys have been up-and-down offensively for most of the second half of the season, and just lost wideout Micahel Gallup for the remainder of the season last weekend, but Amari Cooper continues to look relatively healthy and is popping in this week’s model. Dallas has little to play for this Sunday when they face the Eagles, as their playoff seeding is all but locked-in, but they have not shown any signs that they’ll rest players. Cooper has seen 18 targets, including five in the red zone, over his last two starts. CeeDee Lamb has seen half has many looks during that same span.
- The Cardinals are touchdown-favorites against the Seahawks, who rank bottom-10 in aFPA allowed to opposing offenses this season, and seemed to find their own offensive rhythm last Sunday, which drastically increases the shootout potential of this NFC West divisional battle this Sunday. While Zach Ertz and Christian Kirk will certainly see their share of looks from Kyler Murray, A.J. Green should continue to be utilized enough to be a viable starter this weekend. Green has seen 27 targets over his last four starts, and has earned 65 air yards or more in three of those games.
