How Soon Do Rookie Quarterbacks Usually Play?
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Last season, I examined the recent history of rookie quarterbacks to see how much they’ve played and how soon we can expect them to take over the starting job. This article serves to update that data to include the five quarterbacks who went early in last year's draft. No quarterbacks were drafted inside the top 15 this season, but those interested in potentially drafting Kenny Pickett may want to read on.
Below is a table of the 47 quarterbacks drafted inside the first 15 picks since 2000. I’ve included their rookie season stats for reference, but I’m mainly interested in the number of games they started and how early in the season they got their first start. The data was collected from Stathead.com. The table is pretty wide so you may want to scroll to the right.
| Player | Year | Age | Pick | Tm | G | GS | First Start | Played Behind/Notes | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | PYds | PTD | Int | TD% | Int% | Sk | Sk% | YPA | PY/G | W | L | T | Rush | Ryds | RTD | RY/G | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 2021 | 23 | NE | 17 | 17 | 1 | - | 352 | 521 | 67.6 | 3801 | 22 | 13 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 28 | 5.1% | 7.30 | 223.6 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 44 | 129 | 0 | 7.6 | 226.9 | |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2021 | 22 | JAX | 17 | 17 | 1 | - | 359 | 602 | 59.6 | 3641 | 12 | 17 | 2 | 2.8 | 32 | 5.1% | 6.05 | 214.2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 73 | 334 | 2 | 19.6 | 205.0 | |
| Cam Newton | 2011 | 22 | 1 | CAR | 16 | 16 | 1 | - | 310 | 517 | 60.0 | 4051 | 21 | 17 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 35 | 6.3% | 7.84 | 253.2 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 126 | 706 | 14 | 44.1 | 366.6 |
| Andrew Luck | 2012 | 23 | 1 | IND | 16 | 16 | 1 | - | 339 | 627 | 54.1 | 4374 | 23 | 18 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 41 | 6.1% | 6.98 | 273.4 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 62 | 255 | 5 | 15.9 | 286.5 |
| Kyler Murray | 2019 | 22 | 1 | ARI | 16 | 16 | 1 | - | 349 | 542 | 64.4 | 3722 | 20 | 12 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 48 | 8.1% | 6.87 | 232.6 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 93 | 544 | 4 | 34.0 | 283.3 |
| Jameis Winston | 2015 | 21 | 1 | TAM | 16 | 16 | 1 | - | 312 | 535 | 58.3 | 4042 | 22 | 15 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 27 | 4.8% | 7.56 | 252.6 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 54 | 213 | 6 | 13.3 | 277.0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2016 | 24 | 2 | PHI | 16 | 16 | 1 | - | 379 | 607 | 62.4 | 3782 | 16 | 14 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 33 | 5.2% | 6.23 | 236.4 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 46 | 150 | 2 | 9.4 | 214.3 |
| Matt Ryan | 2008 | 23 | 3 | ATL | 16 | 16 | 1 | - | 265 | 434 | 61.1 | 3440 | 16 | 11 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 17 | 3.8% | 7.93 | 215.0 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 55 | 104 | 1 | 6.5 | 196.0 |
| Sam Bradford | 2010 | 23 | 1 | STL | 16 | 16 | 1 | - | 354 | 590 | 60.0 | 3512 | 18 | 15 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 34 | 5.4% | 5.95 | 219.5 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 27 | 63 | 1 | 3.9 | 194.8 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2012 | 24 | 8 | MIA | 16 | 16 | 1 | - | 282 | 484 | 58.3 | 3294 | 12 | 13 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 35 | 6.7% | 6.81 | 205.9 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 49 | 211 | 2 | 13.2 | 186.9 |
| David Carr | 2002 | 23 | 1 | HOU | 16 | 16 | 1 | - | 233 | 444 | 52.5 | 2592 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 3.4 | 76 | 14.6% | 5.84 | 162.0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 59 | 282 | 3 | 17.6 | 155.9 |
| Justin Herbert | 2020 | 22 | 6 | LAC | 15 | 15 | 2 | Tyrod Taylor | 396 | 595 | 66.6 | 4336 | 31 | 10 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 32 | 5.1% | 7.29 | 289.1 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 55 | 234 | 5 | 15.6 | 330.8 |
| Robert Griffin III | 2012 | 22 | 2 | WAS | 15 | 15 | 1 | Injuries | 258 | 393 | 65.7 | 3200 | 20 | 5 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 30 | 7.1% | 8.14 | 213.3 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 120 | 815 | 7 | 54.3 | 321.5 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2009 | 23 | 5 | NYJ | 15 | 15 | 1 | Injuries | 196 | 364 | 53.9 | 2444 | 12 | 20 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 26 | 6.7% | 6.71 | 162.9 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 36 | 106 | 3 | 7.1 | 134.4 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 2011 | 22 | 10 | JAX | 15 | 14 | 3 | Luke McCown | 210 | 413 | 50.9 | 2214 | 12 | 11 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 40 | 8.8% | 5.36 | 147.6 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 48 | 98 | 0 | 6.5 | 124.4 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2018 | 23 | 1 | CLE | 14 | 13 | 4 | Tyrod Taylor | 310 | 486 | 63.8 | 3725 | 27 | 14 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 25 | 4.9% | 7.66 | 266.1 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 39 | 131 | 0 | 9.4 | 242.1 |
| Vince Young | 2006 | 23 | 3 | TEN | 15 | 13 | 4 | Kerry Collins | 184 | 357 | 51.5 | 2199 | 12 | 13 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 25 | 6.5% | 6.16 | 146.6 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 83 | 552 | 7 | 36.8 | 207.2 |
| Sam Darnold | 2018 | 21 | 3 | NYJ | 13 | 13 | 1 | Injuries | 239 | 414 | 57.7 | 2865 | 17 | 15 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 30 | 6.8% | 6.92 | 220.4 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 44 | 138 | 1 | 10.6 | 172.4 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2004 | 22 | 11 | PIT | 14 | 13 | 3 | Tommy Maddox | 196 | 295 | 66.4 | 2621 | 17 | 11 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 30 | 9.2% | 8.88 | 187.2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 144 | 1 | 10.3 | 171.2 |
| Blake Bortles | 2014 | 22 | 3 | JAX | 14 | 13 | 4 | Chad Henne | 280 | 475 | 59.0 | 2908 | 11 | 17 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 55 | 10.4% | 6.12 | 207.7 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 56 | 419 | 0 | 29.9 | 168.2 |
| Byron Leftwich | 2003 | 23 | 7 | JAX | 15 | 13 | 4 | Mark Brunell | 239 | 418 | 57.2 | 2819 | 14 | 16 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 19 | 4.3% | 6.74 | 187.9 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 25 | 108 | 2 | 7.2 | 159.6 |
| Zach Wilson | 2021 | 22 | NYJ | 13 | 13 | 1 | - | 213 | 383 | 55.6 | 2334 | 9 | 11 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 44 | 10.3% | 6.09 | 179.5 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 29 | 185 | 4 | 14.2 | 149.9 | |
| Josh Rosen | 2018 | 21 | 10 | ARI | 14 | 13 | 4 | Sam Bradford | 217 | 393 | 55.2 | 2278 | 11 | 14 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 45 | 10.3% | 5.8 | 162.7 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 23 | 138 | 0 | 9.9 | 120.9 |
| Daniel Jones | 2019 | 22 | 6 | NYG | 13 | 12 | 3 | Eli Manning | 284 | 459 | 61.9 | 3027 | 24 | 12 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 38 | 7.6% | 6.59 | 232.8 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 45 | 279 | 2 | 21.5 | 233.0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2015 | 22 | 2 | TEN | 12 | 12 | 1 | Injuries | 230 | 370 | 62.2 | 2818 | 19 | 10 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 38 | 9.3% | 7.62 | 234.8 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 34 | 252 | 2 | 21.0 | 205.9 |
| Mitch Trubisky | 2017 | 23 | 2 | CHI | 12 | 12 | 5 | Mike Glennon | 196 | 330 | 59.4 | 2193 | 7 | 7 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 31 | 8.6% | 6.65 | 182.8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 41 | 248 | 2 | 20.7 | 138.5 |
| Joey Harrington | 2002 | 24 | 3 | DET | 14 | 12 | 3 | Mike McMahon | 215 | 429 | 50.1 | 2294 | 12 | 16 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 8 | 1.8% | 5.35 | 163.9 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0.3 | 108.2 |
| Josh Allen | 2018 | 22 | 7 | BUF | 12 | 11 | 2 | Nathan Peterman, Injuries | 169 | 320 | 52.8 | 2074 | 10 | 12 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 28 | 8.0% | 6.48 | 172.8 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 89 | 631 | 8 | 52.6 | 210.1 |
| Matt Leinart | 2006 | 23 | 10 | ARI | 12 | 11 | 5 | Kurt Warner | 214 | 377 | 56.8 | 2547 | 11 | 12 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 21 | 5.3% | 6.76 | 212.3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 22 | 49 | 2 | 4.1 | 138.8 |
| Joe Burrow | 2020 | 24 | 1 | CIN | 10 | 10 | 1 | IR W12 | 264 | 404 | 65.4 | 2688 | 13 | 5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 32 | 7.3% | 6.65 | 268.8 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 37 | 142 | 3 | 14.2 | 181.7 |
| Justin Fields | 2021 | 22 | CHI | 12 | 10 | 3 | Andy Dalton, Injuries | 159 | 270 | 58.9 | 1870 | 7 | 10 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 36 | 11.8% | 6.93 | 155.8 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 72 | 420 | 2 | 35 | 136.8 | |
| Matthew Stafford | 2009 | 21 | 1 | DET | 10 | 10 | 1 | Injuries, IR W16 | 201 | 377 | 53.3 | 2267 | 13 | 20 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 24 | 6.0% | 6.01 | 226.7 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 20 | 108 | 2 | 10.8 | 125.5 |
| Christian Ponder | 2011 | 23 | 12 | MIN | 11 | 10 | 7 | Donovan McNabb | 158 | 291 | 54.3 | 1853 | 13 | 13 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 30 | 9.3% | 6.37 | 168.5 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 28 | 219 | 0 | 19.9 | 122.0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2020 | 22 | 5 | MIA | 10 | 9 | 8 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 186 | 290 | 64.1 | 1814 | 11 | 5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 20 | 6.5% | 6.26 | 181.4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 36 | 109 | 3 | 10.9 | 135.5 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 2019 | 22 | 15 | WAS | 9 | 7 | 9 | Case Keenum | 119 | 203 | 58.6 | 1365 | 7 | 7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 29 | 12.5% | 6.72 | 151.7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 101 | 0 | 11.2 | 78.7 |
| Jared Goff | 2016 | 22 | 1 | LAR | 7 | 7 | 11 | Case Keenum | 112 | 205 | 54.6 | 1089 | 5 | 7 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 26 | 11.3% | 5.31 | 155.6 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 1 | 2.3 | 57.2 |
| Eli Manning | 2004 | 23 | 1 | NYG | 9 | 7 | 11 | Kurt Warner | 95 | 197 | 48.2 | 1043 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 4.6 | 13 | 6.2% | 5.29 | 115.9 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 3.9 | 51.2 |
| Alex Smith | 2005 | 21 | 1 | SFO | 9 | 7 | 5 | Tim Rattay | 84 | 165 | 50.9 | 875 | 1 | 11 | 0.6 | 6.7 | 29 | 14.9% | 5.3 | 97.2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 30 | 103 | 0 | 11.4 | 27.3 |
| Deshaun Watson | 2017 | 22 | 12 | HOU | 7 | 6 | 1 | IR Week 9 | 126 | 204 | 61.8 | 1699 | 19 | 8 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 19 | 8.5% | 8.33 | 242.7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 36 | 269 | 2 | 38.4 | 166.9 |
| Jay Cutler | 2006 | 23 | 11 | DEN | 5 | 5 | 13 | Jake Plummer | 81 | 137 | 59.1 | 1001 | 9 | 5 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 13 | 8.7% | 7.31 | 200.2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 | 0 | 3.6 | 67.8 |
| Michael Vick | 2001 | 21 | 1 | ATL | 8 | 2 | 9 | Chris Chandler | 50 | 113 | 44.3 | 785 | 2 | 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 21 | 15.7% | 6.95 | 98.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 289 | 1 | 36.1 | 68.3 |
| Trey Lance | 2021 | 21 | SFO | 6 | 2 | 5 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 41 | 71 | 57.7 | 603 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 2.8 | 4 | 5.3% | 8.49 | 100.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 168 | 1 | 28 | 62.9 | |
| JaMarcus Russell | 2007 | 22 | 1 | OAK | 4 | 1 | 17 | Daunte Culpepper/Josh McCown | 36 | 66 | 54.6 | 373 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6.1 | 6 | 8.3% | 5.65 | 93.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 15.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2017 | 22 | 10 | KAN | 1 | 1 | 17 | Alex Smith | 22 | 35 | 62.9 | 284 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.9 | 2 | 5.4% | 8.11 | 284.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 10.0 | 10.4 |
| Jake Locker | 2011 | 23 | 8 | TEN | 5 | 0 | - | Matt Hasselbeck | 34 | 66 | 51.5 | 542 | 4 | 0 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 5 | 7.0% | 8.21 | 108.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 56 | 1 | 11.2 | 49.3 |
| Philip Rivers | 2004 | 23 | 4 | SDG | 2 | 0 | - | Drew Brees | 5 | 8 | 62.5 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 4.13 | 16.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 0 | -2.5 | 4.8 |
| Carson Palmer | 2004 | 25 | 1 | CIN | 0 | 0 | - | DNP as a rookie, Jon Kitna | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0 |
Key Takeaways
- The average number of games started in this sample is 10.7, but that includes a few situations–JaMarcus Russell, Patrick Mahomes, Jake Locker, Philip Rivers, and Carson Palmer, now known as the “Jamarcus Group”–where it was pretty clear from the get-go that the rookie wasn’t going to start as long as the team’s QB1 remained healthy. If these players are removed, the average jumps to 12.0 games started.
- 27 of the 47 (57%) rookies started at least 12 games, while at least another four–Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, and Deshaun Watson–would have made it if not for injuries. If we include those four, the percentage jumps to 66%. If we exclude the Jamarcus Group, that percentage jumps further to 74%.
- Excluding the Jamarcus Group, the average first start for the remainder of the sample was Week 3.5. So, on average, we can expect rookies in fuzzy situations to get their first start around Week 3 or Week 4.
- 20 of the 47 (43%) rookies started Week 1. 31 of the 47 (66%) drew their first start by Week 4, 74% if we exclude the Jamarcus Group.
- Six of the 47 (13%) rookies finished with more than 250 fantasy points, the ballpark threshold I use to get into season-long QB1 (Top 12) territory. More often than not, rookie quarterbacks are going to be weekly QB2/QB3-types, though there are exceptions. It should be noted that of the 14 rookies who started 15+ games, six (43%) finished with 250+ fantasy points and three (21%) went for 320 or more.
Conclusions
There isn't much actionable for 2022 since no quarterbacks were drafted inside the top 15, but I do have some data for those interested in Kenny Pickett, who was drafted with the No. 20 overall pick. Since the 2010 season, the six quarterbacks drafted between pick 15 and pick 25 have averaged 9.0 games started. It sounds like Mitch Trubisky is in the driver's seat to start for the Steelers this season.
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