Free Agency Aftermath: Underdog Fantasy Football ADP Risers & Fallers

The NFL legal tampering period began on March 9th, and while not everyone has found a home yet, there was plenty of movement, causing fantasy football values to change. With two full weeks of best ball drafts since free agency opened, let's examine how Underdog ADP has shifted by comparing ADP data from March 9 to March 23.

I'll go position by position, highlighting the largest movement in both directions courtesy of the 4for4 Underdog ADP tool.

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Quarterbacks

QB Risers

Geno Smith, Jets (ADP: 177.6, -51.6)

No QB has risen more in the last two weeks, after Geno Smith was traded to the Jets on March 10th. Smith brings some much-needed stability to New York's signal-caller room, but shouldn't be considered more than a low-end QB2/3 heading into the season. His arrival is good news for the Jets' weaponry, as Garrett Wilson, Adonai Michell, and Mason Taylor's targets will be of higher quality than in 2025.

Jacoby Brissett, Cardinals (ADP: 160.9, -31.7)

With Kyler Murray in Minnesota and the only other QB addition so far, Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett is sitting pretty as the probable starter in Arizona. He ranked QB18 last season in fantasy points per game, averaging 16.2 across the 14 contests he was on the field with the Cardinals. Managers are hopping on board, at least pre-NFL Draft, as Brissett rose nearly three full rounds over the last two weeks as the current QB28.

QB Fallers

Michael Penix, Falcons (ADP: 205.9, +34.7)

He was already recovering from an ACL tear, so Michael Penix may miss the start of the season. Then, the Falcons added Tua Tagovailoa on a one-year deal, causing a near three-round slide in ADP for Penix down to the 18.02 in Underdog drafts.

J.J. McCarthy, Vikings (ADP: 237.2, +22.8)

Minnesota signed Kyler Murray to a one-year deal on the 12th, and despite the appearance of a possible competition, Murray is the favorite to be under center in 2026. His presence caused J.J. McCarthy to dip nearly two full rounds in ADP, who is now leaving UD draft boards at spot 20.09 as the QB36.

Running Backs

RB Risers

Chris Rodriguez, Jaguars (ADP: 152.5, -82.3)

No player in the NFL had an ADP spike like Chris Rodriguez over the last two weeks, climbing a whopping 6.8 rounds into the 13th as the current RB46. The rusher joins the Jaguars, who have 296 available touches thanks to the departure of Travis Etienne. Rodriguez has been very efficient so far in his career, as he has averaged 4.8, 4.9, and 4.5 yards per carry (YPC) in his three seasons in the NFL, and he also has a history with Jacksonville HC Liam Coen from college ball.

Isiah Pacheco, Lions (ADP: 172.2, -63.7)

David Montgomery left 182 touches on the table from 2025, most of which will likely go to former Chief Isiah Pacheco, who went to Detroit on a one-year deal. Jahmyr Gibbs cut into a larger piece of Monty's workload in each of his first three seasons, as he went from 235 in 2023 to 221 in 2024, then 182 last year. The landing spot is decent considering Pacheco will have a fairly defined role, but without a Gibbs injury, he's nothing more than an RB4/5 for now.

RB Fallers

Alvin Kamara, Saints (ADP: 187.3, +35.9)

The Saints gave Travis Etienne a hefty 4-year deal, plummeting Alvin Kamara's draft stock a full three rounds. Last season's RB18 in ADP is now the RB58, leaving boards at the 16.07 spot. Kamara could still be traded or even retire before the season commences, but for now, he's considered an RB4 heading into 2026.

Kaleb Johnson, Steelers (ADP: 238.9, +27.7)

Pour a few out for Kaleb Johnson, who, after a forgettable rookie season thanks to the addition of Kennneth Gainwell, is again likely relegated to scraps after the team signed Rico Dowdle, reuniting the former Panther with coach Mike McCarthy. As a result, managers are passing on the sophomore, and his ADP has fallen just over two rounds in the last fortnight.

Wide Receivers

WR Risers

Jalen Nailor, Raiders (ADP: 180.9, -53.8)

The Raiders gave Jalen Nailor a three-year deal worth $35 million, which is a decent investment in the former Viking. Despite a QB situation that's TBD, drafters are taking the WR 4.5 rounds earlier than they were just 14 days ago, but for now, he's still a late-round guy at pick 16.01 as the WR72.

Darnell Mooney, Giants (ADP: 195.0, -27.5)

It feels like the Giants' WR corps is perennially less than cut and dry, but if Darnell Mooney ends up as the slot replacement for Wan'Dale Robinson, he and Jaxson Dart have the potential for fantasy goodness. Mooney's ADP has risen two and a quarter rounds since his signing, but he's still very affordable as the WR78 at pick 17.03 in early Underdog drafts.

WR Fallers

Marvin Mims Jr. (ADP: 235.9, +25.5), Troy Franklin (ADP: 191.5, +24.4), Pat Bryant (184.1, +21.5), Broncos

Denver traded for Jaylen Waddle on March 17th, tanking three Broncos WRs ' ADPs all at once. The bulk of the 2025 Denver WR room, minus Courtland Sutton, was among the top 5 biggest dropping ADPs at the position after two weeks of the free agency period. Marvin Mims, Troy Franklin, and Pat Bryant all fell an average of 24 slots as a result of their new teammate entering the fold, and are currently being drafted in the WR6-WR8 territory.

Tight Ends

TE Risers

Chigoziem Okonkwo, Commanders (ADP: 169.9, -58.5)

That breakout for Chigoziem Okonkwo may finally be here, or at least best ball drafters are liking the chances in his new home in Washington. Since signing with the Commanders on 3/11, the TE's ADP has skyrocketed close to five rounds, from the 19.12 to his current 15.02 draft spot. Chig has a clear upgrade in QB and has the talent to sneak into fantasy TE1 territory for the current price of TE21.

Isaiah Likely, Giants (ADP: 148.8, -20.0)

He's produced at a high level in spurts when acting as the starter in Baltimore, averaging 10.5 points per game in half-PPR scoring, and now Isaiah Likely heads to New York to catch the rock from Jaxson Dart. He won't have to worry about Wan'Dale Robinson or Daniel Bellinger, but Theo Johnson is still in the mix, so expectations should still be tempered. Likey jumped from an early 15th rounder to spot 13.05 and is currently leaving boards as the TE17.

TE Fallers

Theo Johnson, Giants (ADP: 229.1, +53.4)

As mentioned above, the arrival of Likely does not instill confidence in Theo Johnson as a viable fantasy asset in 2026, and the sophomore has fallen nearly 4.5 rounds over the last two weeks as a result of his new teammate's roster presence.

Colby Parkinson (ADP: 226.7, +18.7), Terrance Ferguson (ADP: 207.2, +18.3), Rams

The Rams TE room is standing room only, with Colby Parkinson, Terrance Ferguson, and Tyler Higbee all possibly vying for targets, at least as of right now in March. Both Parkinson and Ferguson's ADPs slid nearly the same number of draft spots since March 9th, with Parkinson the TE33 and Ferguson a few spots before him as the TE30.