Draftkings Reignmaker Core Strategy: Week 16

Dec 22, 2022
 Draftkings Reignmaker Core Strategy: Week 16

It's Week 16 in the NFL, and it's a strange one. It's been 6 years since Christmas last fell on a Sunday, and the NFL certainly doesn't want distracted fans for an entire 10-game slate! Consequently, the main slate of 10 games will be played on Saturday, and the usual 3 games will be played on Christmas. One thing will remain steady: Draftkings Reignmaker Strategy being here to get you prepped for Week 16. Matt Price and I opened an Elite-tier pack on Make It Reign, our pack-opening video show that includes some early-week strategy. It wasn't our most thrilling pull, as our Elite card was Dalton Shultz, our Rare card was an injured Jonathan Taylor, and our best Core card was an injured Damien Harris. We'll open up a new pack each week on Make It Reign, which drops every Wednesday on our YouTube Channel.

More DraftKings Reignmaker Content!

For Week 16, 15 players are designated as "SuperStars," and only one SuperStar card is allowed in each contest lineup:

Reignmakers Superstars: Week 16
Position Player Team
QB Josh Allen BUF
QB Lamar Jackson BAL
QB Justin Herbert LAC
QB Patrick Mahomes KC
QB Jalen Hurts PHI
QB Joe Burrow CIN
RB Austin Ekeler LAC
RB Christian McCaffrey SF
RB Derrick Henry TEN
RB Saquon Barkley NYG
RB Nick Chubb CLE
WR Cooper Kupp LAR
WR Davante Adams LV
WR Justin Jefferson MIN
WR Tyreek Hill MIA

Core SuperStar Strategy

Week 16 SuperStar Strategy

The lone SuperStar main-slate victim of the Christmas-Day games is Tyreek Hill, playing against the Packers on Sunday morning. But you can still play his Sweater card in the Christmas-day contest! Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler are removed, playing the Colts on Monday night, and Cooper Kupp continues to rehab his high-ankle sprain, SuperStar-style. Jalen Hurts appears to be on the doubtful side of questionable for Saturday, and Lamar Jackson is on the questionable side of questionable for the Ravens' Saturday game.

Josh Allen has the softest matchup of any of the available SuperStar QBs, with the Bills visiting Chicago and their 26th-ranked defense by QB aFPA. Soldier Field is an outdoor stadium in what forecasts to be single-digit weather, but that won't stop Josh Allen from running the ball, and the Buffalo Bills are quite familiar with cold weather. Patrick Mahomes should be a popular choice this week for Fiat Frenzy drafters, on the road facing the Seahawks in a game with a 47.5 projected point total. The Seahawks defense doesn't present a cakewalk, allowing the 15th-fewest aFPA to QBs, but that's not enough to avoid Mahomes, who's projected by 4for4 as the QB1 for Week 16. Joe Burrow faces a tougher matchup against the Patriots and their 10th-ranked defense in QB aFPA, in a game projected for 40.5 total points.

Derek Henry gets an early present in the form of the Texans and their 29th-ranked RB aFPA, and he projects as the RB1 for the week. Austin Ekeler's matchup against the 28th-ranked Colts is equally enticing, and he projects as the RB3 for Week 16. Christian McCaffrey projects as the RB2, but he has a tough matchup against Washington's 4th-ranked RB aFPA.

Justin Jefferson ranks as 4for4's WR1 for the week, yet again, and his Vikings play the Giants, who rank 23rd in WR aFPA. Rinse and repeat with the 2022's overall PPR WR1.

Ultimately, Patrick Mahomes being on the favored side of a game with a 49.5 projected point total, the highest on the slate, tilts the needle in his direction for me. He can also be stacked with Travis Kelce against Seattle's 28th-ranked TE aFPA. There are a number of non-SuperStar top options at WR and RB on the main slate like Stefon Diggs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Dalvin Cook, making the choice for a SuperStar QB even more palatable.

Core Marketplace Values

Geno Smith, QB SEA - $11.00

It's been rare to find QB value like this on the marketplace for a Non-Superstar QB. Smith faces a Kansas City defense giving up the 5th-most QB aFPA, and this game projects for a 49.5-point total score. If Seattle is a bit more competitive on offense than projected

Jamaal Williams, RB DET - $1.00

Williams' last few games have been disappointing, without question, but $1.00 is an over-correction. Williams still leads the league with 14 rushing TDs, facing a Panthers defense that's 20th in RB aFPA, with the Lions favored at home in a game projected for 44.5 total points.

DK Metcalf, WR SEA - $4.00

Metcalf is Geno Smith's top receiving option even with Tyler Lockett available, with Metcalf garnering 84 targets over the past 10 games to Lockett's 74 targets. Of course, Lockett won't be playing in this game having just had surgery on his hand, making Metcalf a no-doubter for season-high target volume in a game projected as the highest-scoring among Saturday's games.

Week 16 Tournament Strategy

RMF Classic - CORE - $50K Fiat Frenzy [$5K to 1st]

As usual, I'll focus on the largest Core tournament, the $50K Fiat Frenzy that includes the 10 Saturday afternoon games this week, excluding the NYJ@JAX Thursday night game, the PIT@LV Saturday night game, the MIA@GB, LAR@DEN, and ARI@TB Christmas day games, and the IND@LAC Monday night game. The payout structure awards $5,000 to first place, payouts down to $5 for 4,150th place, and a Core Plus pack prize all the way down to 6,150th place. As of Wednesday evening there are 5,545 entries in the Week 16 contest, and the final entry total should be in the 20,000 to 24,000 range.

Top Options at Each Position

QB: Patrick Mahomes, KC

Mahomes is an NFL SuperStar in addition to his card designation as one in Draftkings Reignmaker, and he's 4for4's Week 16 QB1. He's also fantasy's QB2 through 15 games, and draws a Seahawks defense this week that ranks 15th in aFPA to QBs. As I mentioned earlier, this game has the highest projected point total on the main slate at 49.5, with the Chiefs accounting for 29.5 of that total. Kansas City themselves are a pass-funnel defense, ranking 9th in aFPA to RBs but 28th and 22nd in aFPA to QBs and WRs respectively, and the Seahawks have the passing game options between Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Noah Fant, and Marquise Goodwin (hopefully) to keep this game competitive. Mahomes doesn't have the rushing upside of Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts, but he's a very effective runner and has a nose for rushing TDs lately, running in for 2 TDs over the last 3 games. Week 16's main slate offers a very strong group of non-SuperStar options at the skill positions, making the option of going with a SuperStar at QB easier.

RB: Dalvin Cook, MIN

Dalvin Cook's Vikings project to be involved in a higher-scoring affair themselves, with a projected 47.5 point-total for their road matchup with the Giants. The Vikings are 3.5-point favorites, and Cooks' skillset covers a large range of game script outcomes. He's coming off of his best receiving effort of 2022, with 95 receiving yards that matched his rushing yardate with a receiving TD to boot. The Giants are 22nd in aFPA to RBs, and despite the Vikings passing in the red zone at the 2nd-highest rate, Cook still has 37 rushing attempts inside the opponent's 20, 6th most in the league, thanks to his 66.1% market share of the Vikings' red zone rushing attempts. He's 4for4's main-slate RB5 for Week 16, the 2nd-highest projected non-SuperStar RB available, but the game projections favor Cooks' ceiling outcome in a large-field contest.

WR: Stefon Diggs, BUF

Diggs is back! After playing on Thursday night in Week 15, he's back on the main slate to cheat-code his way into your Fiat Frenzy lineup. He's 4for4's projected WR4, facing a Bears defense ranked 19th in WR aFPA, and he continues to dominate Buffalo's market share of targets at 34.5%. The Bills are passing at the 8th-highest rate, and the 7th-highest rate in the end zone, with a Passing EPA per play that's 2nd in the league behind the Chiefs. He projects as the WR4 for the week, and (huge shocker here) the highest-ranked non-SuperStar WR on the slate.

WR/TE: Travis Kelce, KC

Stacking Kelce with Mahomes in the highest-projected game on Saturday is potentially the key to this week's best options. The Seahawks rank 3rd in aFPA to WRs, but 28th in aFPA to TEs, giving Kelce an obvious matchup advantage over his WR teammates. His 28 red zone targets lead all NFL players, as do his 9 red zone TDs. 4for4 projects him for 18.4 points in PPR formats, which ranks him 8th among all WRs, RBs, and TEs. The 49.5 projected point total for his matchup with Seattle is the bow on the box.

FLEX: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET

St. Brown gets the advantage of playing at home, with his team favored by 2.5 points in a game with a 44.5 projected point total, against a Panthers defense giving up the 3rd-most aFPA to WRs. Jared Goff certainly knows what he has in the Sun God, targeting him on 28.5% of his throws. That's how he regularly overcomes the Lions' run-heavy tendencies, and he ranks as the week's WR8 at 4for4. He hasn't seen fewer than 8 targets in a game since Week 8, and he's caught 73% of his targets inside the opponent's 20, the highest percentage among the top 15 players in red zone target totals. The bullet train that is his sophomore breakout shouldn't be slowed in Week 16.

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