Yahoo! Week 17 $1 Million Baller and Cash Game Strategy
Whether you are playing in the biggest tournament of the week on Yahoo! or prefer to play in smaller GPPs, there are some general positional strategies that you can implement in any size tournament. These concepts include stacking, finding pivots off of popular players, and looking for leverage in other spots. While it’s important to implement these into your lineup-building approach, the foundation of any tournament lineup is a solid core, usually players that you would use in cash games.
Stacks to Target
QB Dak Prescott, Cowboys ($32)
WR Michael Gallup, Cowboys ($17)
A handful of offenses project for similar outcomes this week as six teams have an implied total above 27 points but no team projecting for more than 29.25. This game stands out, though, as the contest on the slate with the highest over/under (51.5) points with Dallas favored by six.
Dak Prescott has as much upside on any quarterback on the slate but his salary is $9 less than the QB1 and $8 lower than the QB2. Over the last six weeks, only two teams have thrown at a higher rate in neutral game script than the Cowboys and their 69 plays per game in that span is the third-highest mark. In that same time period, the Cardinals have surrendered the second-most fantasy points per pass attempt to quarterbacks.
Where Arizona has really struggled lately is against the deep ball, allowing the highest QBR of any defense on passes of 20 or more air yards. That plays into the strength of Michale Gallup, whose 12.9-yard average depth of target leads the team over the last six weeks. According to 4for4’s Breakout Receiver Model, Gallup also leads the team in expected fantasy points over their last three games.
QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($36)
WR Tyreek Hill, Chiefs ($29)
After the Bengals steamrolled the Ravens in Week 16, all eyes are on Joe Burrow and their passing attack but Cincinnati’s pass defense is as exploitable as any in the league. This game has the second-highest over/under on the slate (51) and Kansas City is favored by 4.5. Since Week 11, no team has thrown at a higher rate in neutral situations than the Chiefs while offenses have attacked the Bengals through the air at the second-highest rate in neutral game script in that six-week stretch.
Cincinnati allows average fantasy efficiency to opposing passers but has shown a vulnerability against the deep ball, giving up the eighth-highest QBR on passes of 20+ air yards in the second half of the season. They also rank 25th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. This clearly suits Tyreek Hill’s skillset but he may go overlooked after putting up a dud in Week 16 despite Travis Kelce not playing. Hill’s salary is under $30 for just the second time all season and $9 below its $38 peak.
QB Matthew Stafford, Rams ($33)
WR Cooper Kupp, Rams ($40)
WR Odell Beckham, Rams ($20)
The defense that just gave up 525 yards and four touchdowns is a must-target in GPPs in Week 17. Baltimore’s decimated pass defense ranks at or near the bottom in virtually every major category, allowing the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to both quarterbacks and wide receivers, the second-highest QBR allowed on deep balls in the second half of the season, and the most fantasy points per pass attempt over the last six weeks.
Los Angeles has a relatively modest 25-point implied total but this three-man stack has the highest projected ceiling on the slate, according to 4for4. By including Odell Beckham in the stack, the average salary of the stack is brought down a bit and Beckham ranks second on the team in target share and air yards share over the last month. While Van Jefferson was the Rams’ primary deep threat for most of the season, Beckham’s 12.5-yard average target depth over their last four games is just a shy lower than Jefferson’s in that span.
Contrarian Plays to Target
WR Christian Kirk, Cardinals ($16)
If James Conner is out again in Week 17, Chase Edmonds will be among the most popular value plays on the slate. This sets up a huge leverage opportunity for DFS players who roster parts of Arizona’s passing game. Christian Kirk posted a quiet 48 yards in Week 16 but his 21 targets in two weeks without DeAndre Hopkins have accounted for a 24% target share and he ranks fifth in expected fantasy points among all pass-catchers over his last three games. Kirk is a great bring-back in Cowboys stacks but can be used as a salary-saving one-off play as well.
TE Hunter Henry, Patriots ($20)
Only two teams on this slate have a higher implied point total than the Patriots but they will likely draw low rostered rates across the board since they are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league and will likely be back to a shared backfield with Rhamondre Stevenson practicing. As 15.5-point favorites with such a high point total, there should be tournament-winning upside somewhere on their roster and Hunter Henry has shown that ceiling with two multi-touchdown games this season and the most scores at his position. Henry has 14 targets in the last two games and New England should have plenty of red zone trips against the hapless Jaguars
Cash Game Strategy
Roster constructions hinge on the availability of Jimmy Garoppolo—if he is out, Trey Lance is the cornerstone of cash game builds this week. If Garoppolo plays, cash players should be looking to pay up for quarterback while finding salary savings elsewhere.
- QB: Trey Lance, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen
- RB: Chase Edmonds, Ronald Jones, David Montgomery, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs
- WR: Cooper Kupp, Antonio Brown, Brandin Cooks, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Braxton Berrios, Tyreek Hill, Hunter Renfrow, Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb
- TE: Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Rob Gronkowski
- DEF: Bears, Chargers, Seahawks, Eagles