DFS Optimal Values, Locks and Fades: Week 10

Nov 12, 2021
DFS Optimal Values, Locks and Fades: Week 10

In this article, we walk through the process of constructing an optimal lineup that will dominate your cash games on the main slate of Week 10. We start with the optimal lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings determined by the Lineup Generator. Then, we identify the players that are irreplaceable and should be locked into your lineup. For the remaining players, we discuss the main alternatives that you can swap in to make a winning team that best fits your own style.

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FanDuel Week 10 Optimal Plays

Locks

Potential Build

Josh Allen ($8,700) is coming off of his worst game of the season, against the Jaguars of all teams. The good news is he's still only 0.9 points behind Tom Brady for the highest points per game on FanDuel. More good news is he'll get to pick on the Jets who rank 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks and are allowing the third-most passing yards per game.

Dak Prescott ($8,100) struggled in his first game back from injury and had his lowest yards per attempt since Week 1. That said, he did throw multiple touchdown passes for the fifth straight game. It's a good bounce-back spot too up against the Falcons who rank 28th in aFPA to quarterbacks.

For a few hundred cheaper, Aaron Rodgers ($7,800) also has a multiple touchdown streak going, with seven straight games. He should be able to keep that going (assuming he's cleared) as the Packers play the Seahawks who are allowing the fourth-most passing touchdowns per game when playing on the road.

Devin Singletary ($6,000) looks likely to be a bellcow this week with Zach Moss out due to a concussion but I'd prefer James Conner ($7,000) on FanDuel if you can get up to that price range. No Bills running back has topped 15 carries in a game this season and they have combined for just four rushing touchdowns. Josh Allen has scored three rushing touchdowns. Without Chase Edmonds last week, Conner received 26 touches and rushed for nearly 100 yards. The Panthers' defense ranks sixth in aFPA to running backs but they have been vulnerable when playing on the road, allowing 118 rushing yards per game (11th most). Over the last three weeks, the Cardinals have run the ball at the third-highest rate while the Bills have run at the second-lowest rate.

UPDATE: Mark Ingram ($5,500) is now the recommeded play at runningback with Alvin Kamara being ruled out.

It's really a pick your poison week at wide receiver on FanDuel. A.J. Brown ($7,600) has received at least nine targets in four straight games and Julio Jones popped back up on the injury report with a hamstring. That could lead to shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore but the Saints defense has allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. On the other end of the spectrum, Justin Jefferson ($7,400) has the second-toughest matchup for wide receivers, although some of that can be attributed to the Chargers being thrown on at the second-lowest rate. Jefferson will likely be a contrarian play despite being in a game with the second-highest over/under on the slate. It is worth mentioning that his target share has dropped by 10% over the last two weeks compared to what he was receiving over the first six games.

Keenan Allen ($7,200) will be on the other side of Jefferson and he appears to be taking back his alpha status. Over the last two weeks, Allen has the fifth highest target share for wide receivers while his teammate Mike Williams only received 14% of the team's targets. The Vikings are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Dionte Johnson ($7,400) and Michael Pittman ($7,200) are also options in this range but I'll touch on them in the DraftKings section.

Pat Friermuth ($5,100) has been breaking out, receiving over five targets in three straight games. Now he's the number two option in the passing game after Chase Claypool was diagnosed with turf toe. The question is whether the Steelers will pass enough to feed secondary options. They are eight-point favorites against a Lions team being run on at the league's highest rate.

Perhaps Zach Ertz ($5,200) offers more upside at a similar price point. Despite Kyler Murray being questionable to play, the Cardinals have an implied point total of almost 28 points. The Panthers are also allowing touchdown passes at the sixth-highest rate when playing on the road. Ertz has received at least five targets in six of his last seven games. In the other game, he received four.

DraftKings Week 10 Optimal Plays

Locks

Potential Build

Dalvin Cook ($8,000) is our top value play at running back and gets a Chargers defense allowing the most rushing yards per game. However, you can make the case to fade Cook on DraftKings. Cook's ceiling is a bit of a question at this point as he hasn't scored multiple touchdowns in a game all season. He also hasn't topped 20 receiving yards since Week 1. That usage in the passing game is concerning because game script could go negative in a hurry. The Chargers offense is averaging 29 points per game when playing at home and the Vikings defense is allowing the second-most points when playing on the road.

The running back on the other side of this game, Austin Ekeler ($7,600), has proven to be game script proof though. He's topped 45 receiving yards five times this season and the Vikings have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game when traveling. While D'Ernest Johnson ($4,700) is a lock play there's another option to play in that price range as well. Devin Singletary ($4,700) has had at least five receptions in two of his last three games and gets a Jets defense that ranks dead last in PPR fantasy points allowed to running backs.

UPDATE: The latest run of projections recommends jamming in Jonathan Taylor ($8,100) alongside Cook and Johnson.

Mike Evans ($6,900) is our second-best value play at wide receiver. So far this year he has received the fifth-most air yards and gets the best possible matchup against the Washington Football Team (32nd in aFPA). They have allowed the most passing yards and the second-most passing touchdowns this season. That's also why Chris Godwin ($7,100) stands out as a value. Unfortunately, Godwin popped up on the injury report with a foot injury but perhaps Antonio Brown can get back in time for this matchup.

UPDATE: With Antonio Brown being out, we like Tyler Johnson ($3,300) filling his role along with Evans and Adams.

Another receiver that may benefit from injury is Diontae Johnson ($6,800), although I'm not sure Chase Claypool being out can lead to more looks for him as he was already receiving 30% of the team's targets. The Lions look like a tough matchup on paper but that's because their run defense has been so poor. They are being passed on at the league's lowest rate despite ranking dead last in yards per pass attempt allowed. Jacksonville is a very similar matchup for Michael Pittman ($6,300) who has scored a touchdown in three straight games. The Jaguars aren't being thrown on a ton (10th lowest rate) but when they are it's effective. They're allowing the second-highest yards per pass attempt this season. Pittman won't continue scoring a touchdown every game but that'll probably slow down after this week.

Pat Freiermuth's ($3,900) big-time opportunity has him standing out as a value on DraftKings as well. However, Dan Arnold ($3,500) could be seeing even more opportunity for even cheaper. Arnold has received at least five targets in four straight games and the Colts defense has allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends. Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,200) has filled in admirably for Logan Thomas and likely will continue to fill in for him coming out of the bye. He topped 40 receiving yards in three of his last four games and should benefit from the matchup against the Buccaneers' pass funnel defense. While you want tight ends that can pop for big games, my general approach with tight ends is like a defensive coach. If we have the option to punt, then we're punting.

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