The Rundown: Week 10 Stats to Know & Chargers vs Raiders

Nov 06, 2019
The Rundown: Week 10 Stats to Know & Chargers vs Raiders

Week 9 continued the theme of dominant wide receivers as one led the fantasy landscape in PPR scoring for the third time in the last four weeks. This time it was Tyler Lockett. Mike Evans, Marvin Jones, Tyreek Hill, and DK Metcalf all also scored over 25 PPR points last week. While current fantasy seasons are still going on, it doesn’t hurt to peek ahead a bit to 2020 and think about how the explosion of wide receiver production may influence future draft strategies.

Each week, I will provide a preview article with some key overall stats to watch for along with the Thursday game preview that includes start/sit ratings. Then, there will be subsequent previews later in the week with all the other games in time for the remaining fantasy decisions before kickoff. For much of this data, I will be using 4for4's Snaps, Touches, and Targets Apps as well as analyzing each team's pace and play-calling tendencies.

Ten Stats to Know for Week 10

  • Head north: Over the past three weeks, three of the top five scoring quarterbacks come from the NFC North with Aaron Rodgers (first), Matthew Stafford (second), and Kirk Cousins (fifth).
  • Hitting 20: Three running backs have exceeded 20 total touches in each of the past three weeks. Dalvin Cook, Marlon Mack, and Saquon Barkley.
  • Catch this: Austin Ekeler would be the WR12 this season with his receiving production (138.0 PPR points). That’s tied with his teammate Keenan Allen.
  • Reaching 30: Three players have had 30 PPR points in three or more games this season. Christian McCaffrey (4), Lamar Jackson (3), and Mike Evans (3).
  • A pair of aces: Mike Evans (352.4) and Chris Godwin (334.8) are on pace to be the first WR teammates to each hit 320 PPR points in the same year.
  • All the Fells: Darren Fells leads all tight ends with 256 snaps played over the last four weeks. Jordan Akins ranks eighth with 200 played.
  • The five is mine: David Montgomery is tied for the most rushing attempts inside the five with 11. He ranks 18th in overall red-zone rushes with 18 this season.
  • Feed me more: Tyler Lockett’s 18 targets in Week 9 equaled his previous three games combined (18). He ranks 11th overall with 72 targets this year.
  • Life after 40: Tom Brady is on pace to lead the NFL in passing attempts for the second time in the last three years. He is the only quarterback to throw 40-plus times in five different games this year.
  • He’ll be missed: Preston Williams, now out for the season, led the NFL in market share of targets inside the 10-yard line (60%).

Chargers @ Raiders

Spread: Raiders +1 | Total: 49

The Chargers have been somewhat disappointing offensively, which is too bad as their defense is eighth in both yards and points allowed. The run game remains the detriment although they totaled over 150 rushing yards in Week 9 so maybe it will lead to a better trend. The Raiders have a great rushing trend of their own currently, with over 150 rushing yards in four of the last five games. It has helped them rank second in third-down conversion rate, something that will be necessary if they want to win this game.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Raiders are the worst pass defense in the league and they lost a key pass rusher to injury in Arden Key. Expect the Chargers to take advantage with their usual efficient passing game but still lean heavily on the run. There are really no bad starting options on the Chargers this week.

Team Trends That Matter

  • Third slowest offensive pace (33.21 seconds) when leading by seven or more points.
  • Have allowed a running back to reach 75 rushing yards or more in four of the last five games.
  • Only one quarterback has scored over 20 fantasy points against the Chargers.

Fantasy Rating and a Stat to Know

  • QB Philip Rivers (4) - Three straight games of multiple touchdown passes against the Raiders
  • RB Melvin Gordon (3) - Played a season-high 45 snaps in Week 9
  • RB Austin Ekeler (3) - Week 9 was his first game with double-digit rushing attempts in five weeks
  • WR Keenan Allen (4) - Nine or more targets in each of his last four games versus the Raiders
  • WR Mike Williams (3) - Scored a season-high 14.3 PPR points in Week 9
  • TE Hunter Henry (5) - 15-plus PPR points in three of his last four games

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders would like to continue their run-heavy approach once again. The Chargers are an average run defense so they should have some success here. The Chargers also struggle with ending opponent’s drives quickly, meaning the Raiders could sustain some good drives and accumulate fantasy points even if they don’t get into the end zone often. It does cap the ceiling, however.

Team Trends That Matter

  • Have allowed 22 or more fantasy points to four of the last five quarterbacks they have faced.
  • A running back has caught a touchdown pass against the Raiders in each of the last three weeks.
  • Second slowest (27.59 seconds) in pace when trailing by seven or more points.

Fantasy Rating and a Stat to Know

  • QB Derek Carr (3) - Multiple touchdown passes in five of his last six games
  • RB Josh Jacobs (4) - Has reached 80 total yards in all but one game this season
  • WR Tyrell Williams (3) - Week 9 was his first game played this year without a touchdown
  • WR Hunter Renfrow (2) - Over half his PPR points this year (36.2 of 61.7) have happened in the last two weeks
  • TE Darren Waller (5) - Week 9 was his first game under five targets (two)

Fantasy Rating Key

  • (5) - Elite option. Must start.
  • (4) - Strong option. Likely start.
  • (3) - Good option. Low-end starter to high-end backup.
  • (2) - Weak option. Possible flex or desperation play.
  • (1) - Bad option. Bench in nearly all cases.
  • (0) - Not an option. Injured, bench, or waivers.
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