Fantasy Football: Who Should You Draft with the 1st Pick in 2026?

The first overall pick is, without a doubt, the most unique and intriguing spot in drafts. On the one hand, there’s almost always a chalk pick (or two), and everyone will expect you to make it. On the other hand, at 1.01, you have complete freedom to decide who you believe will be fantasy's most valuable player in 2026, and to snag that player with impunity. If you believe the guy going sixth in ADP is going to score the most points at a critical position, there's no law preventing you from "reaching" to pick him at the top.

Oh, and on the subject of "chalk." Here's a look at the consensus 1.01 from the last five years, and where they finished in fantasy points, both at their position and overall (in half-PPR). And no, this is not a cruel joke.

The good news? Ja'Marr Chase finally broke what had been a five-year curse on the 1.01 that made the Madden curse look like child’s play. The bad news? Even when Chase stayed healthy, his quarterback did not; his consistency suffered a bit as a result, and he “only” finished fourth at his position. So why the difficulty with repeat dominance? Well, one major reason immediately stands out. Pretty consistently, the 1.01 in a given year is the highest-scoring running back or wide receiver from the previous season. The only exception on the list above is 2021 Christian McCaffrey, considering he played just three games in 2020 ... but he was the highest scorer in PPG (27.3) in those three games.

And who can blame fantasy managers? They just watched these guys scorch the league a few short months prior, and typically, little has changed in the subsequent year. Why not run it back?

The law of averages, regression to the mean, and the physical toll of elite volume. That's why. When a player has a season good enough to finish number one in fantasy, it usually means everything went right, nothing went wrong, and they saw a ton of touches. Unfortunately, mathematics, statistics, and human physiology don't play well with that recipe from year to year.

Now, oddly enough, this year’s ADP reflects a departure from the norm: last year’s top scorer is typically going at the 1.06, while the most common 1.01 candidates finished third and fourth at their position. Are we learning? Maybe. Read on to find out.

The Candidates (in ADP order)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions

Jahmyr Gibbs was “only” the RB3 last year, so why would we be confidently drafting him over the RB1 (Christian McCaffrey), the RB2 (Jonathan Taylor), or even the RB4 (Bijan Robinson)? Three words. No. More. Knuckles. That’s right, Detroit’s famous Sonic & Knuckles duo of Gibbs and David Montgomery went through a breakup this offseason, as Montgomery signed with the Texans. In his place, the Lions picked up Isiah Pacheco, but that was nowhere near enough to quiet excitement over Gibbs’ upside as the guy in Detroit after long last.

It’s not hard to see why. Even after seeing a major dip in workload last season, Montgomery logged a third straight year with 900+ yards and 8+ touchdowns. The two years prior, he’d hit 1,100+ yards and 12+ touchdowns. But over those two prior years, he’d also missed six games. These are Gibbs’ numbers in those six games.

Obviously, Week 3, 2023 was Gibbs’ third game in the league (and his first start). And even as a disappointment by his standards, he racked up 82 yards and 18 touches in that game. Keeping that game in the mix, his six-game averages without Montgomery: 19.7 carries, 4.7 catches, 147.3 yards, 1.3 touchdowns, 25.1 fantasy points per game.

Projected to a 17-game season?

That would be 335 carries, 80 catches, 2,504 yards, 22 touchdowns, more than 420 fantasy points. The only non-QB to outscore that theoretical threshold in NFL history was LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. Are you seeing the vision here? It’s particularly worth noting that Gibbs led the NFL with 38 touchdowns the last two years, even with Montgomery “vulturing” 20 of his own. Theoretically, Gibbs might be better positioned to challenge Tomlinson’s record of 31 scores than anyone in recent memory. (Though, candidly, no one has even topped 21 since that season.)

Now, for some realism. Gibbs’ “running mate” for those six games was Craig Reynolds, an undrafted journeyman who offered very little threat to Gibbs’ workload. Pacheco has 42 career starts, multiple seasons with 900+ scrimmage yards, and one as a top-20 fantasy running back. He should be a bit more of a nuisance than Reynolds was. Buuuuut … he’s also a seventh-round pick who signed for just $1.8 million, coming off a couple of unimpressive seasons marred by injury. So “bit more” might not mean all that much.

The other question is whether Gibbs can survive through a bell-cow workload. He’s 5-foot-9, 202 pounds, which is a little undersized for a high-volume back, and his career high of 320 touches (last year) is strong, but lower than the touch count of four of the last five overall RB1’s (Austin Ekeler did it on 311 touches in 2022). It’s probably a large part of why Montgomery existed in the role he did the past few years.

Ultimately, unless you believe Gibbs can’t handle that volume, or that Pacheco ends up being a drag-and-drop replacement for Montgomery, it’s hard not to have him as the 1.01 … or at least a strong competitor with our next candidate.

RB Bijan Robinson, Falcons

Bijan Robinson is coming off one of the more consistent and impressive two-year stretches in fantasy history. He’s the first player to log 1,400+ rushing yards and 400+ receiving yards consecutively since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006-2007 — and as we’re learning, prime LT references are typically a good thing. He was a top-four fantasy back both of those seasons and only didn’t finish higher because of the touchdown cap. Robinson scored “just” 15 times in 2024 and 11 times in 2025, thanks to the struggles of the Atlanta offense and the presence of Tyler Allgeier.

Allgeier is now gone (to Arizona), and Atlanta spent just $2.5 million to sign Brian Robinson Jr. as Bijan’s new backup (and to confuse fantasy managers everywhere). Robinson did score 17 touchdowns from 2023 to 2024 as the lead back in Washington, but he was essentially a non-factor behind Christian McCaffrey last year in San Francisco (two touchdowns).

Meanwhile, it’s hard to guarantee much with regard to the offense, despite a rash of changes at the top. Swapping from HC Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson to HC Kevin Stefanski and OC Tommy Rees could certainly help. Stefanski’s offenses ranked top seven in rushing yards and touchdowns each season from 2019 through 2022 (with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt). Then again, with Rees at OC, the Browns were bottom eight in both those categories each of the last two seasons.

The potential for Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback — after Robinson played with some rotation of Desmond Ridder, Kirk Cousins, Taylor Heinicke, and Michael Penix Jr. — could also help. (Though he could struggle mightily and surrender the job as soon as Penix is healthy.) Specifically, in three straight seasons, Tagovailoa has ranked top seven among qualified quarterbacks in the percent of his passes that have targeted the running back position. In 2024, he was number one on that list (25.6%), and in 2025 he was third (25.4%). Considering that Robinson went from 58 catches as a rookie to 61 in year two and 79 in year three (with 820 receiving yards), this duo could produce video game numbers through the air. It would legitimately not surprise me to see Robinson join the very short list of running backs with 100+ receptions and/or 1,000+ receiving yards in a season.

Robinson is going to see elite volume, particularly through the air, and hasn’t missed a single game through three seasons (knock on wood). He’s about as safe as you can get at the position. The question is whether the Falcons will be good enough to support overall RB1 levels of scoring. Keep in mind, their over/under win total of 6.5 is four wins lower than the Lions’ total of 10.5. That’s not ideal for the running back position, and makes it tough for me to elevate Robinson over Gibbs for this pick.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals

Last year, the first name we covered in this exact article was Ja’Marr Chase. He was coming off a monster 2024 in which he’d won the receiving Triple Crown and scored 17 touchdowns, and it had made him the 1.01 in ADP. But I had some reservations, quoted below:

“In 2024, Chase scored a touchdown on 9.7% of his whopping 175 targets. The two years prior, he'd scored on just 5.7% of his targets. In 2024, Chase's best game of the year — a 264-yard, three-TD affair in Week 10- came with Tee Higgins inactive. Give Chase 20 fantasy points that game (instead of 49.9), and his PPG on the season drops from 20.0 all the way to 18.2 … No one has ever scored 17 receiving touchdowns in consecutive seasons, and less than a handful have hit 125+ catches or 1,700+ yards consecutively.”

Well, Chase found the end zone on just 4.3% of his targets in 2025, while Higgins outscored him 11-to-8 in TDs (in one fewer game). He did hit exactly 125 catches, but dropped to 1,412 yards. And he ended up averaging just 15.7 fantasy points per game, well short of even the 18.2 we set after the Higginsless adjustment. It might be a bit of a stretch for me to say “I told you so” (especially since I loved CeeDee Lamb last year), but … regression to the mean is a powerful force.

Fortunately, it also works in the opposite direction. At his previous touchdown rate of 5.7%, Chase would have scored 10 or 11 touchdowns last year, and I’d project his true average rate to be somewhere in that range, if not a little higher (his career mark through five seasons is 7.0%). Meanwhile, he still leads the NFL with an absurd 360 targets and 252 catches over these last two seasons. The only other receiver in NFL history to hit 175+ targets and 125+ receptions back-to-back was Antonio Brown in 2014 and 2015 … and he was the WR1 in points per game in 2016.

In all likelihood, Chase ends up somewhere right in the middle of his legendary 2024 and his “disappointing” 2025. The midpoint between those two seasons would be 295.3 fantasy points, which would have been a little short of both Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba last year … and that’s exactly where I have him projected in 2026.

WR Puka Nacua, Rams

Speaking of Nacua … he was absolutely dominant in 2025. He averaged 19.4 fantasy points per game (in half-PPR) to finish as the WR1 overall (310.5 points) despite missing a game. He outscored WR3 overall Amon-Ra St. Brown (who played 17 games) by 45 points and WR4 Ja’Marr Chase (16 games) by 59.4 points. Nacua also finally broke the touchdown ceiling, scoring 10 even while his teammate Davante Adams scored a league-leading 14 times.

From an efficiency standpoint, Nacua was legendary. His 3.8 yards per route landed him another spot on the all-time leaderboard, just behind Tyreek Hill’s 2023 for best ever by a receiver with at least 50 targets, since Next Gen Stats started tracking the data in 2016.

And his situation is exquisite. Reigning MVP Matthew Stafford is back at the helm, Sean McVay is still calling plays, Adams is present but turns 34 years old in December and next to nothing has changed in the offense. Nacua is also hitting his fourth career season (at age 25). Four of the top six wide receiver fantasy seasons of all time were recorded by players in their fourth or fifth season: Cooper Kupp’s 2021, Chase’s 2024, CeeDee Lamb’s 2023, and Antonio Brown’s 2014.

The only red flag you can point to with Nacua is that he plays an extremely physical brand of football and tends to get banged up — he missed six games in 2024 and one last year. And it is a valid flag when you’re talking about the first overall pick. If you’re looking to avoid risk, Nacua might not be the play. But if you’re looking for the player best positioned to lead wide receivers in fantasy scoring, I’m narrowly taking Nacua over Chase (or the next guy).

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks

After an extremely solid 2024 in which he hit 100 receptions and finished as the WR10, Jaxon Smith-Njigba saw a massive breakout in 2025: 119 catches on 163 targets, a league-high 1,793 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns. He was the Offensive Player of the Year and largely carried the Seahawks’ offense to a Lombardi Trophy.

And yes, I said carried. JSN accounted for a 35.8% target share — not just the highest in the league, but the second-highest by any player on any team since targets were first reliably tracked nearly two decades ago (Brandon Marshall in 2012 is number one). He also accounted for 36.6% of Seattle’s receptions, 44.1% of their receiving yards, and 40.0% of their receiving touchdowns. For reference, here’s a look at JSN compared to the next-highest player in those first few categories.

Smith-Njigba was, pretty comfortably, the most valuable single receiver to his team’s offense in 2025. And Seattle didn’t change much on the depth chart entering 2026: they lost Kenneth Walker III, which could put even more onus on JSN, but that’s about it. He’s right up there with Nacua among the league’s most efficient receivers (see the YPRR chart above) and still has the shockingly efficient Sam Darnold at quarterback.

One wrinkle in all of this is that the Seahawks did lose OC Klint Kubiak to the Raiders, replacing him with 49ers tight ends coach Brian Fleury. It’s tough to predict what kind of effect that will have on the passing game, and JSN in particular, but if Fleury knows what’s good for him, he’ll continue heavily featuring one of the league’s best receivers. That puts Smith-Njigba right back in the conversation for WR1 overall, which in turn puts him in the conversation for the 1.01. If you prefer to go wide receiver over running back, and are looking for a little more safety than you might get with Nacua or even Chase, the Seahawks All-Pro might be your best bet.

RB Christian McCaffrey

In last year’s version of this article, I presented a pretty simple case on Christian McCaffrey. “When healthy, Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in fantasy, arguably the best fantasy asset at any position, and potentially the best to ever grace our fantasy lineups … McCaffrey is outside the ‘consensus’ conversation for 1.01 purely because of the injury concerns, but if you project him for a clean bill of health — which is less ‘foolishly optimistic’ than it sounds — he'd be a favorite ... maybe even the favorite for the first overall pick.”

Spoiler alert, folks: McCaffrey finished as the highest-scoring player in fantasy football in 2025, with 365.6 half-PPR points. He outscored the next-highest non-quarterback — Jonathan Taylor — by nearly 30 points, making him easily the best pick at the 1.01 (though he was rarely, if ever, taken there).

So, why is he back down at 1.06 in ADP, behind two running backs and three receivers he outscored in last season?

Honestly, I think it’s the same reason as last year. After shouldering a league-high 413 touches last season, fantasy managers are once again terrified that McCaffrey will get hurt again. And with the looming presence of the electrical substation in Santa Clara, I get it. Also, as I covered last year with Saquon Barkley, coming off a season with this kind of volume is historically a death knell for running backs, who tend to miss time or statistically regress the ensuing year.

I don’t know if I buy either argument with McCaffrey. Unlike other backs who get nicked up and miss intermittent action every year, CMC has been incredibly tough and wildly consistent in the six seasons he has not suffered a catastrophic season-ending injury. Also, so much of his volume comes on receptions — 102 catches last year — which tend to be much less bruising than inside run after inside run into the teeth of the defense. Yes, McCaffrey is 30 years old. Yes, he’s passed 1,500 career carries. Yes, he’s coming off a season with more than 400 touches. All of these things make him, admittedly, far riskier than a Gibbs or Robinson.

But. Once again. If McCaffrey stays healthy, particularly with the frequent disappearance of reliable receiving options in San Francisco, he has perhaps the clearest path to RB1 overall — and therefore 1.01 overall — upside.

Honorable Mention: Jonathan Taylor is going one spot behind McCaffrey despite outscoring both Gibbs and Robinson last year, and you may ask why? The simple answer is regression. Taylor hit 1,963 yards and 20 touchdowns on 369 touches last year, and all of those numbers feel likely to come down in 2026 after the Colts offense faltered down the stretch and Daniel Jones tore his Achilles. Full transparency, Taylor could surprise us all and run his way to the top spot in fantasy, but both the expected floor and the realistic ceiling feel lower for him than the other three backs.

Who Should You Draft?

Despite all the pomp, circumstance, research, and far too many words on this subject, my favorite pick for the 1.01 … is the chalk pick for the 1.01. Jahmyr Gibbs has an impossibly high floor and a nearly unprecedented ceiling in Detroit this year. While I wouldn’t fault you for picking any of the guys I broke down above — especially after I more or less made the case for each — I’m clicking Gibbs in any and every format in 2026 drafts.

My pick at the 1.01 in every format: Jahmyr Gibbs