Tournament Ownership Outlook - Week 6

Oct 16, 2015
Tournament Ownership Outlook - Week 6

The winner of Week 5's Sunday Million had five players under 14-percent owned.

Pinpointing players who return great value but are low-owned is key to taking down large tournaments. Every week, I'll be throwing away money entering a bunch of cheap Thursday GPPs on FanDuel with as many relevant players as I can, because FanDuel allows users to see ownership percentages of any player they roster.

To get an idea of the ownership percentages on other sites, we'll have to extrapolate the FanDuel results (and also account for pivots from the Thursday plays). Use common sense: if players have a large discrepancy between their FanDuel price and whatever site you're playing on, obviously you have to take that into account. Remember that FanDuel is 0.5 PPR, so pass-catching running backs may be more popular on full-PPR sites. Also note that these lineups are from Thursday nights, so if injury news has broken since, it can change things up, especially for other players in the same salary range as the players affected by injuries. Furthermore, remember that these percentages come from small stakes contests; in higher stakes, the gap between the most popular plays and the less popular ones may not be as great. Finally, keep in mind that when Thursday plays are taken out of the equation, the rest of the players may not necessarily simply see proportional increases in ownership -- it's very possible that one player will see a disproportionate increase compared to the rest of the pool.

Predicting ownership is more art than science, and this is by no means a perfect system. However, by looking at a ranked list of ownership percentages on a popular site like FanDuel, we can get a decent picture of how the consensus feels about all of the different plays in a given week across the industry.

I leave the Thursday players in the list for reference purposes, and I write a few thoughts about what I think may change on Sunday (if anything), but generally, I will not be providing actual picks here. For those, check out my FanDuel GPP Breakdown and DraftKings GPP Breakdown (published weekly on Friday), which both heavily take the information gleaned here into account.

Note: This week's contest was FanDuel's $1 Mini Dive.

Editor's Note: 4for4 has an ALL-NEW DFS SUBSCRIPTION! It includes our revolutionary Lineup Generator, Stack Value Reports, Ceiling & Floor Projections, GPP-Specific Articles, Ownership Outlooks, DFS Theory Articles, Lineup Construction Articles, a Downloadable .csv with Projections and Salary Data, and much more! DETAILS HERE! Previous subscribers don't worry, you'll get the same DFS content you got last season, but we think you'll want to UPGRADE to our DFS subscription because it takes our DFS content to the next level!


QB % Owned
Tom Brady 17.1
Andy Dalton 12.1
Matt Ryan (Thu) 9.7
Carson Palmer 5.7
Drew Brees (Thu) 5.1
Aaron Rodgers 4.9
Blake Bortles 4.9
Eli Manning 4.8
Brian Hoyer 4.0
Sam Bradford 2.7
Philip Rivers 2.3
Marcus Mariota 2.2
Matthew Stafford 2.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick 1.9
Colin Kaepernick 1.7
Teddy Bridgewater 1.2
Joe Flacco 0.9
E.J. Manuel 0.4
Michael Vick 0.3
Total 83.9

No surprise here -- Brady is the consensus top value in a game where the Patriots have a team total of over 30.


RB % Owned
Devonta Freeman (Thu) 52.7
Dion Lewis 19.2
Eddie Lacy 9.9
Chris Ivory 9.5
Adrian Peterson 9.3
Matt Forte 9.1
LeVeon Bell 8.7
LeGarrette Blount 8.4
Charcandrick West 6.9
Mark Ingram (Thu) 6.1
Arian Foster 4.7
Giovani Bernard 4.3
DeMarco Murray 4.1
Shane Vereen 3.6
Lamar Miller 2.6
Chris Johnson 2.3
Frank Gore 1.7
C.J. Anderson 1.7
Justin Forsett 1.3
Duke Johnson 1.1
Jeremy Hill 0.8
Melvin Gordon 0.8
Marshawn Lynch 0.3
Total (of 200) 169.1

There's a lot of ownership to make up with Freeman off the table Sunday. Expect Dion Lewis to be the most popular option, with the studs (LeVeon Bell, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson) making large jumps.


WR % Owned
Julian Edelman 32.3
DeAndre Hopkins 29.8
Larry Fitzgerald 23.4
Allen Robinson 19.1
Willie Snead (Thu) 18.6
A.J. Green 11.1
Brandon Marshall 10.4
Julio Jones (Thu) 10.2
James Jones 8.1
Eric Decker 7.8
Jeremy Maclin 7.0
Brandin Cooks (Thu) 5.9
Leonard Hankerson (Thu) 5.8
Kendall Wright 5.5
Jordan Matthews 5.5
Emmanuel Sanders 5.5
Anquan Boldin 5.4
Allen Hurns 5.3
Calvin Johnson 4.8
Randall Cobb 3.2
Marquess Wilson 3.2
T.Y. Hilton 2.8
Keenan Allen 2.4
Odell Beckham Jr. 2.0
Mike Wallace 2.0
Antonio Brown 1.4
John Brown 1.3
Martavis Bryant 1.3
Ty Montgomery 1.2
Demaryius Thomas 1.0
Torrey Smith 1.0
Total (of 300) 244.3

Again, a Patriot tops the list. Allen Robinson has overtaken James Jones as the most popular play under $7,000.


TE % Owned
Antonio Gates 35.8
Tyler Eifert 13.5
Rob Gronkowski 12.3
Martellus Bennett 7.4
Greg Olsen 4.8
Travis Kelce 2.7
Jacob Tamme (Thu) 2.5
Richard Rodgers 2.3
Zach Ertz 1.6
Larry Donnell 1.6
Delanie Walker 1.6
Ben Watson (Thu) 1.0
Jimmy Graham 1.0
Charles Clay 0.2
Total 88.3

It looks like Antonio Gates may be the highest-owned player on the slate this Sunday. Users are down on Gronk after two scoreless weeks.


K % Owned
Stephen Gostkowski 15.4
Josh Brown 10.6
Robbie Gould 10.2
Matt Bryant (Thu) 8.3
Justin Tucker 4.7
Mason Crosby 3.3
Steven Hauschka 3.3
Zach Hocker (Thu) 3.1
Matt Prater 2.1
Mike Nugent 1.8
Chandler Catanzaro 1.7
Blair Walsh 1.5
Ryan Succop 1.4
Nick Folk 1.4
Caleb Sturgis 1.4
Jason Myers 0.2
Total 70.4

No suprises here, with the Patriots huge team total making Gostkowski the most popular choice.


D % Owned
Broncos 22.4
Jets 16.5
Titans 7.2
Cardinals 6.4
Bengals 5.5
Packers 5.4
Falcons (Thu) 5.4
Vikings 4.7
Seahawks 3.4
Panthers 2.9
Lions 2.8
Dolphins 1.5
Ravens 1.4
Texans 1.2
Saints (Thu) 0.7
Jaguars 0.6
Total 88.0

The Broncos and Jets are the two best projected values at defense, so it's no surprise they top the list. The Titans are in third place a users target the Dolphins' brand-new head coach.

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