O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 16

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA—one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what O-Line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Broncos vs. Patriots

The Patriots' defense has looked stellar at times throughout the 2023 season, but the correlation between their great performances and struggling offenses (and/or offensive lines) on the other side is robust. They have done quite well over the last month against a very soft schedule but have only managed to notch one win as their offense continues to sputter, consistently putting the defense in awful situations.

The Broncos are well-equipped to take advantage of short fields and can continue to lean on an offensive line that has been presented with good health, gelling an ascending unit. Not a single piece of their starting five has missed more than 20 snaps in the entirety of the season and should give Russell Wilson plenty of time to cook against a defense that ranks 27th in adjusted sack rate (6.0%) and 28th in pressure rate (32.5%).

Jerry Jeudy still can’t be trusted in his turbulent season, but Wilson and Courtland Sutton have sneaky Week 16 upside, particularly in DFS.

Vikings vs. Lions

Nick Mullens’ first start as a Viking was a pleasant one in fantasy terms, as he completed 78.8% of his passes and a 303-2-2 stat line, bolstered heavily by a fully healthy Justin Jefferson and an offensive line that allowed a middle-of-the-road 12 pressures. The Vikings get another cushy matchup this week against a Lions defense that has been dealing with injuries to C.J. Gardner-Johnson, James Houston, and Alim McNeil, which may help explain why the team ranks 31st in sack percentage (4.3%) since their Week 9 bye.

The Lions defense has dropped down to 25th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing offenses, including 30th in QB aFPA and 26th in WR aFPA, while allowing 27.6 points per game since their Week 9 bye, despite facing off against several struggling offenses (Saints, Broncos, the Bears twice). This puts Justin Jefferson back on the map as a true top-five wide receiver option this week, and Matt Savoca’s Breakout Receiver Model points towards that as well. Per Savoca’s article,

Jefferson ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per route run and eighth in fantasy points per route run, indicating he’s still as effective as it gets on a per-snap basis. His overall season numbers are, of course, disappointing, but he remains a top-10 receiver in fantasy points per game and has an outside shot at multiple touchdowns in every game from here on out.

Even with Jefferson back, Jordan Addison remains a fringe WR2/3 option, with T.J. Hockenson still locked into lineups. All of this is what made Nick Mullens such a great streaming option this week.

Cowboys @ Dolphins

We don’t have a definitive update on right guard Zack Martin, who left last week’s game with a quad/knee injury, but the Cowboys passing offense is still in a great spot for Week 16. In what is currently the highest point total of the slate (51), the team may be forced to plug in undrafted free agent (UDFA) T.J. Bass in place of the All-Pro lineman, and that doesn’t necessarily portend poorly, as the rookie has performed well in spot duty all year. Through 130 pass-blocking reps, Bass has allowed only one sack and five pressures, no doubt helped by the fact that he’s been sandwiched in between left tackle Tyron Smith and center Tyler Biadasz, who both continue to be pillars on this line.

The Cowboys should be trusted to notch a nice bounce-back week, with Brandin Cooks back on the radar, even after back-to-back down weeks. A combined 6.7 half-PPR points over these last two games does not instill confidence, but his route participation (79.8%) and air yards share (34.6%) in this small sample size are still far beyond what he was receiving in the early season. He should be bouncing around in your FLEX consideration, with a possible “boom” week following these last two busts.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Bears vs. Cardinals

While the Chicago Bears offense is still struggling to find their footing with any sort of reliability, their defense has been much-improved after their awful initial month of the season. Yes, Joe Flacco did just throw for 374 yards against them last week, but he also threw three interceptions and took four sacks, which helped to deliver us 17.0 fantasy points, the sixth double-digit performance on the year, and the third occurrence in the last three games.

The Cardinals present a prime opportunity to make it four games in a row, as they currently rank 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing D/ST. Don’t be afraid to fire up the Bears in the fantasy semi-finals.

Seahawks @ Titans

The Titans offense has shown moderate flashes with Will Levis under center (four passing touchdowns in Week 8, 327 yards through the air in Week 14), but there are far more clunkers, including four games in which the team couldn’t reach 200+ yards passing. What’s worse, Levis looks as if he is trending towards missing not only this week, but possibly the rest of the year after suffering an ankle injury late in their overtime loss last week, which means the team will revert to Ryan Tannehill.

Through the first six weeks of the season, the Titans passing game looked terrible with Tannehill at the helm, ranking 29th in yards per game (200.7), 28th in adjusted completion percentage (71.0%), 27th in turnover-worthy throw rate (4.8%), and 31st in pressure-to-sack rate (28.05%).

The Seahawks have a great matchup here against a struggling Titans offensive line, but it gets even better if Tannehill gets back at the helm.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Eagles vs. Giants

The absolute monster workloads for D’Andre Swift have been trending in the wrong direction since the Eagles’ Week 10 bye. Over the team’s first nine games, Swift garnered 18+ opportunities in seven of them, producing double-digit half-PPR fantasy points in six, checking in as the overall RB6. Since then, he has hit 18+ opportunities only once, on Monday Night Football in Seattle this past week, notching double-digit fantasy points only once.

He has a chance to turn that around against the division-rival New York Giants, who currently rank 30th in RB rushing yards allowed per game (119.3) and 28th in RB yards per carry (4.6). The latter number is especially concerning, considering teams are running on the Giants at the 11th-highest rate, as they have the league’s worst point differential (-149) through 14 games.

Depending on a player involved in a three-back rotation (Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott) is no one’s idea of a good time, but Swift has a great floor/ceiling combination in round two of the fantasy playoffs.

Packers @ Panthers

Despite breaking only one run that went longer than seven yards (20 yards on his first touch of the game), Aaron Jones still had a decent performance (8.9 half-PPR fantasy points, RB24) in his first game back from a knee injury against a tough Buccaneers front. Things lighten up exponentially here in Week 16 against a Panthers team that ranks 31st in rush-defense DVOA and 29th in adjusted line yards (29th).

Carolina’s defensive line did show up against the Falcons last week to stuff them for a pitiful 1.68 yards per attempt, but it’s worth mentioning that Atlanta was missing right tackle Kaleb McGary, center Drew Dalman, and right guard Chris Lindstrom. In this week’s game, they’ll be taking on a Packers team that has had a good stretch of o-line health, unlike we’ve seen from them over the last couple of seasons, and this has helped fantasy pieces pop up with higher frequency than at the beginning of the year.

Through Weeks 1-5, stud left guard Elgton Jenkins was in and out of the lineup, and the rushing game struggled, averaging 0.97 running back yards before contact, the fourth-worst mark in the league. Since Jenkins’ return after the team’s Week 6 bye, they have averaged 1.77 RB yards before contact (11th) while averaging 4.6 yards per attempt as a team (6th). Aaron Jones is set up to pop in fantasy lineups for the first time in two months, even if A.J. Dillon is cleared to play.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad match-up through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing:

• Kareem Hunt, Browns
• Miles Sanders, Panthers
• Najee Harris, Steelers
• Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks