2023 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 16
The 4for4 breakout receiver model surges forward into Week 16, still navigating the twists and turns of a particularly dynamic year in the NFL. As we head into the final three weeks of the regular season, we’ll continue to spotlight the opportunity value standouts and under-the-radar “overperformers”, doing our best to analyze how shifting player roles and offensive schemes can influence expected fantasy value, and ultimately, breakout potential. Let's dive into the Week 16 model data and try to uncover some hidden gems.
About the Breakout Receiver Model
The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, created the current iteration receiver "buy-low" model in order to use machine learning to identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout performance. The model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily weights the last three weeks of data.
Model Predicted Breakouts - Week 15
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