Week 15 Breakout Player Model: Top NFL DFS Contrarian Plays

Dec 16, 2022
Week 15 DFS Breakout Model: Top Contrarian Plays

One of the biggest advantages you can deploy in daily fantasy is buying low on a player who has fallen out of favor with the rest of the field but is set up for a smash week. The 4for4 Player Stat Explorer is home to a model that compares a fantasy player's actual fantasy output with their expected fantasy output, based on their usage and historical data. The goal is to highlight players that have had the requisite usage (snaps, targets, air yards, etc) to produce big fantasy outcomes, but due to the natural variance of the sport have yet to do so. Many times, those underperforming players will be low-owned in DFS and make for fantastic contrarian plays, which this article will highlight.

More Week 15 DFS Strategy: Cash Game Breakdown | GPP Breakdown | Daigle’s Top Values and Picks | WR/CB Matchups

Fantasy Points Over Expectation, Weeks 11–13
Player Team Pos PPR Fantasy PPG Exp Fantasy PPG Fantasy PPG Over Exp.
Marquise Brown ARI WR 9.0 17.5 -8.5
Kyle Allen HOU QB 10.5 18.0 -7.5
Nico Collins HOU WR 10.9 18.3 -7.4
Lance McCutcheon LA WR 0.0 6.5 -6.5
John Wolford LA QB 8.0 14.5 -6.5
Jaylen Waddle MIA WR 6.8 13.2 -6.4
Colt McCoy ARI QB 9.8 15.8 -6.0
Diontae Johnson PIT WR 10.3 15.9 -5.5
Mike Evans TB WR 7.8 13.3 -5.5
Tyler Higbee LA TE 5.0 10.4 -5.4
Robert Woods TEN WR 7.0 12.3 -5.3
Tom Brady TB QB 16.2 21.4 -5.3
Tommy Tremble CAR TE 0.6 5.8 -5.2
Mark Andrews BAL TE 8.6 13.7 -5.1
Cameron Brate TB TE 3.4 8.2 -4.8
WanDale Robinson NYG WR 19.4 24.2 -4.8
AJ Green ARI WR 4.4 8.9 -4.5
Julio Jones TB WR 7.7 12.2 -4.5
Amari Cooper CLE WR 15.5 19.9 -4.5
Christian Kirk JAX WR 11.3 15.7 -4.4
TJ Hockenson MIN TE 10.5 14.9 -4.4
Baker Mayfield LA QB 14.1 18.4 -4.3
Allen Lazard GB WR 8.9 13.2 -4.3
Chris Godwin TB WR 17.9 22.1 -4.2
Keenan Allen LAC WR 18.2 22.4 -4.2
Cade Otton TB TE 10.8 14.9 -4.1
Cordarrelle Patterson ATL RB 7.7 11.6 -4.0
Tyler Conklin NYJ TE 5.6 9.5 -3.9

WR Marquise Brown, Cardinals ($6,800 FD/$5,500 DK)

In Brown's two games since returning from injury, he has racked up eight targets in both contests. With those eight targets, he has only managed to come out with nine fantasy points on average. Colt McCoy is the new quarterback in Arizona with Kyler Murray tearing his ACL. It's a bit speculative to diagnose whether that will be a good thing for Brown or not. He did see eight targets from McCoy last week, so it seems it's not going to hurt. The matchup isn't great against the Broncos, who have a very good secondary, but he should avoid the top corner Patrick Surtain II. There is a chance he gets fed the ball a bit more if McCoy is afraid of attacking Surtain who is covering Hopkins.

It's a difficult game to stack because we have two backup quarterbacks and not a lot of points projected, so I think at the very most this is a game be a secondary stack with Brown and Jerry Jeudy.

TE Tyler Conklin, NY Jets ($5,000 FD/$3,100 DK)

Zach Wilson will resume his role as QB1 with Mike White not being cleared for contact. This could be beneficial to Tyler Conklin as he'd had solid chemistry with Wilson and, though being targeted, was having a hard time connecting with Mike White. White targeted Conklin 15 total times in their last two games, but that only resulted in about 11 fantasy points. With Wilson under center, Conklin started the year with three straight double-digit fantasy games and also had a massive 26-point, two-touchdown game right before Wilson was benched. He may be the only pass-catcher happy to see Wilson back.

RB Cordarelle Patterson, Falcons ($6,300 FD/$5,900 DK)

C-Patt has had steady usage while active this season, but his workload has been cut into by Tyler Allgeier. Seeing him pop on the breakout model grabbed my attention because I've been trying to analyze just how Desmond Ridder may change the course of the Falcons offense. The fact that Patterson's 15 or so touches per game haven't netted him much in the way of fantasy points has been a bit surprising because he flourished in this offense last year. The move to Ridder may be a welcomed change for Patterson, both in usage and scheme. We can't be sure, but Patterson could also be the beneficiary of increased check downs or designed screens. Coaches always like to get quarterbacks settled with short area throws that will get the chains moving and keep the new signal-caller comfortable.

WR Christian Kirk, Jaguars ($7,100 FD/$6,600 DK)

The most talented receiver on the Jaguars has taken a back seat to some of the other receiving options since the Jaguars' bye week, but this week could be the week he decides to rise from the ashes. Kirk has seen the requisite usage to score more than single-digit fantasy points, which he's done in two of his last three games. This week against a tough Cowboys defense he's my favorite bring-back on the Jaguars if you are creating game stacks. I tend to think people will gravitate to Zay Jones and Evan Engram because of their recent success and cheaper price, but Kirk running out of the slot should be able to avoid Trevon Diggs. Even if he does see Diggs, it may not be the worst thing. Diggs is a gambler who ranks 66th in fantasy points allowed per target. He has a ton of pass break-ups but can get himself in trouble by being aggressive in coverage. Either way I'm rostering the Jaguars receiver who is popping in our breakout model and could be the least rostered.

Latest Articles
Most Popular