NFL Week 11: Weekend Specials Bets
Week 10 Recap: Betting these specials each week can be both very fun (when winning) and tilting when losing on good process plays. Last week looked very encouraging when Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb were balling out in the first half of the Falcons game with 219 passing yards for Prescott and 94 receiving yards for Lamb. Unfortunately, the game got so out of hand (35-3 at half) that CeeDee Lamb finished playing 42% of snaps and the Cowboys turned to a run-heavy approach before eventually bringing in Cooper Rush for cleanup duty at quarterback.
This should be a reminder that hitting these specials is not easy. In fact, most weeks we won’t hit on one of them—and a lot has to go right for them to hit.
The process is the most important part and it was very encouraging to see what both Prescott and Lamb were able to do against the Falcons.
Players Who Have a History of Hitting Ceiling Games
Adding onto the research we looked at last week, I wanted to see which players had the most games hitting the “ceiling” or the range of outcomes we are looking for in our sample.
This will help us quickly identify the true ceiling players and they can make our focus easier each week when evaluating the market. It will also allow us to closer quantify our edge and use these implied probabilities and compare it to the implied probability of the line itself to find an edge.
For your information, I’m dating this back to the start of 2016 and will be including Week 10 of this season.
- Minimum threshold: 388
- Median threshold: 416
|Player||Games Started||Games Over Min.||Games over Median||% Over Min.||% Over Median||Ceiling||Games Since Last Hit|
The cream of this is Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott as they hit this number on over 12.5% of their games! Fair odds each week based on that should be +700. If we see anything lower than those odds we should start getting intrigued.
Kirk Cousins is an underrated candidate here as he does have some ceiling games. If the market is low on him, he starts getting interesting at +2000.
Funny enough, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a great play whenever he starts as he has a crazy ceiling in his games.
Joe Burrow is getting interesting as a play who can reach the heights of Mahomes and Prescott. Having Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins tied to his hip for the next few years should make him a potential target every week.
- Minimum threshold: 142
- Median threshold: 158
|Player||Games Started||Games Over Min.||Games Over Median||% Over Min.||% Over Median||Ceiling||Games Since Last Hit|
Derrick Henry is the king of this weekly special, but it looks like a new contender is emerging in Jonathan Taylor. With Derrick Henry out, Jonathan Taylor should be on a weekly watch to hit this number.
There’s a glut of five other decent contenders we have to watch out for every week.
Ezekiel Elliott is not much of a contender anymore as he has only hit this threshold once in the past four years and he scraped by the threshold by one yard.
Good matchups can help us determine which of these players are good values.
- Minimum threshold: 158
- Median threshold: 175
|Player||Games Started||Games Over Min.||Games Over Median||% Over Min.||% Over median||Ceiling||Games since last hit|
I added those four guys with two “ceiling” games due to them being in the league after 2016 and will perform better on a per-game basis.
We know Tyreek Hill has a high ceiling, but it was really interesting to see receivers like Mike Evans and Amari Cooper pop in here. We should likely be targeting them in good matchups as it's possible the market undervalues them due to not having blow-up games recently.
Julio Jones is going to likely be a fun value to hammer when he gets healthy as there's a lot of recency bias behind him, but his efficiency is still elite.
Ja'Marr Chase will be a fun one to monitor as he has a chance to really "break" these weekly specials and have some crazy ceiling games.
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