Breakout Receiver Model: Week 10

Nov 10, 2021

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The Breakout Receiver Model returns for Week 10 after a so-so Week 9. With over half the fantasy season behind us, the data reaches near full strength, and there are a ton of intriguing breakout recommendations to dig into this week.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, have recalibrated and reconfigured the receiver "buy-low" model from years past in order to better identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends who might be on the verge of a breakout performance. For the uninitiated, the breakout receiver model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily-weights the last three weeks of data.

Last Week's Results

Hits

Week 9 Breakout Receiver Model, Hits
Player	Team	Position	XFP - Last 3	Week 9	XFP-Diff.
Travis Kelce	KC	TE	13.3	15.3	2
Justin Jefferson	MIN	WR	12.2	15.5	3.3
Darnell Mooney	CHI	WR	11.5	19.1	7.6
DeVonta Smith	PHI	WR	9.5	20.1	10.6
Tim Patrick	DEN	WR	9.4	16.5	7.1
Marquez Callaway	NO	WR	8.7	10	1.3
Jared Cook	LAC	TE	8.1	8.8	0.7
Cole Kmet	CHI	TE	6.9	11.7	4.8

While the model’s hit rate was slightly below the weekly average in terms number of players who scored above expectation, we did see five players produce 15.3 or more half-PPR fantasy points last weekend. DeVonta Smith and the Bears’ Darnell Mooney had huge games against elite defenses, scoring 20.1 and 19.1 against top-10 defenses this past weekend. Second-year star Justin Jefferson also had a strong game despite seeing five total targets, catching just three. He still managed a top-15 wide receiver performance in Week 9. Marquise Brown was on last week’s breakout model and scored 16.1 fantasy points against the Vikings on Sunday, but is inexplicably missing from this list. You’ll have to read on in order to find out the reason behind his omission.

Misses

Week 9 Breakout Receiver Model, Misses
Player	Team	Position	XFP - Last 3	Week 7	XFP-Diff.
Emmanuel Sanders	BUF	WR	16.5	8.5	-8
Kyle Pitts	ATL	TE	16.5	7.7	-8.8
D.J. Moore	CAR	WR	14.9	6.1	-8.8
Diontae Johnson	PIT	WR	14.3	9.2	-5.1
Courtland Sutton	DEN	WR	13.7	3.4	-10.3
Tee Higgins	CIN	WR	12.5	10.8	-1.7
Mark Andrews	BAL	TE	11.6	6.9	-4.7
Allen Robinson	CHI	WR	11	8.8	-2.2
Dallas Goedert	PHI	TE	10.9	5.8	-5.1
Dalton Schultz	DAL	TE	10.4	7.4	-3
Nelson Agholor	NE	WR	10.2	0	-10.2
Jarvis Landry	CLE	WR	9.9	2.6	-7.3
Robby Anderson	CAR	WR	9.2	0.7	-8.5
Darius Slayton	NYG	WR	9	0	-9
Chase Claypool	PIT	WR	9	5.8	-3.2
Jakobi Meyers	NE	WR	8.8	1.3	-7.5
Quez Watkins	PHI	WR	8.1	1.9	-6.2
Mike Williams	LAC	WR	8	6.8	-1.2
Mo Alie-Cox	IND	TE	7.4	3.3	-4.1
Durham Smythe	MIA	TE	6.9	3.7	-3.2

The Bills’ offense disappointed across the board, so it’s no surprise to see Emmanuel Sanders on this list. With Tim Patrick having a huge day for Denver, Teddy Bridgewater ultimately relied much less on Courtland Sutton, as he scored 3.5 fantasy points, his worst performance since his one-reception Week 1 performance. Tee Higgins had a modest 10.8 fantasy points against the Browns last Sunday, far from a complete dud, and he’s now seen 29 targets over his last three games, but he’s still under-performing his expectations from the last three weeks by 13.6%. Despite eeking out a victory on Monday night football, both Chase Claypool, who left briefly with an injury, as well as teammate Diontate Johnson combined to finish 8.3 fantasy points short of expectations. Instead, rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth nabbed two receiving touchdowns against the Bears, saving the Steelers’ day.